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Processor Quarterly Market Monitor Q2 2021

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For the first time, the processor monitor is including FPGA, CPU, GPU, and APU including all the IDMs, fabless companies, and foundries in the business.
More information : https://www.i-micronews.com/products/application-processor-quarterly-market-monitor/

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Processor Quarterly Market Monitor Q2 2021

  1. 1. From Technologies to Markets © 2021 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor Computing Service 2021 Sample
  2. 2. 2 Apple,Arm,AMD, Global Foundries, Google, HiSilicon, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Lenovo, LG, MediaTek, Meizu, Nvidia, NXP, OPPO, Qualcomm, Samsung, SMIC, Sony, Spreadtrum, Texas Instruments,TSMC, UMC, UniSOC,Vivo, Xiaomi, Xilinx, XMC, ZTE and more Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 COMPANIES MONITORED IN THE PRODUCT
  3. 3. 3 PROCESSOR MONITOR EVOLUTION Processor Market Monitor APU – Smartphone,Tablet, Smartwatch,APU-based PC, SmartTV, Smartspeaker,AR,VR,Automotive infotainment CPU, GPU – Client and Server FPGA Module II Module III Publication Date Released Released Module I Released Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  4. 4. 4 Market overview o 2020-2026 Market dynamics o Revenue o Shipments o Pricing o Quarterly revenue – near & long term o CAPEX Market shares o APU quarterly market shares • Smartphone,Tablet, Smartwatch, Notebook, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR,VR,Auto Infotainment o CPU quarterly market shares • Client Notebook, Client Desktop, Server o GPU quarterly market shares • Client Notebook & Desktop, Server o FPGA quarterly market shares TABLE OF CONTENTS Pricing o Pricing, near & long term o Pricing by segment o Pricing per unit area o Pricing per transistor Technology o APU designer die size trend o APUs with embedded AI accelerators o APUs by memory interface o Average die size by segment Production o Quarterly wafer output o Annual wafer output o Wafers by logic node o Units by logic node o Foundry revenue o Foundry revenue per wafer Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  5. 5. 5 John Lorenz John Lorenz is a Technology and Market Senior Analyst within the Computing & Software division at Yole Développement (Yole). After holding various positions within Micron Technology including engineering, strategic and finance roles, John is daily engaged in the development of market and technology monitors for the logic segment of advanced semiconductors at Yole. John has a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (USA), with a focus on MEMS devices. Contact: john.lorenz@yole.fr ABOUT THE AUTHORS Biographies & contacts Tom Hackenberg Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor, Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement (Yole).Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currently focused on low and ultralow power.Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors.Tom is also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets,AI and edge computing. Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin. Contact : tom.hackenberg@yole.fr Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  6. 6. 6 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/unit Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/Bn Tr APU NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $ billions 520 499 503 559 556 502 507 565 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 millions units Designer revenue Shipments Pricing per billion transistors Pricing per unit + APU long-term dynamics Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Y/Y X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X%
  7. 7. 7 CPU NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $ billions 110 107 83 89 95 75 75 80 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 millions units Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/Bn Tr Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/unit Designer revenue Shipments Pricing per billion transistors Pricing per unit + CPU long-term dynamics Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Y/Y X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X%
  8. 8. 8 GPU NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $ billions 26 27 23 25 26 23 24 26 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 millions units Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/Bn Tr Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/unit Designer revenue Shipments Pricing per billion transistors Pricing per unit Richer mix of server pushing blended price higher + GPU long-term dynamics Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Y/Y X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X%
  9. 9. 9 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/unit FPGA NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS Designer revenue Shipments Pricing per billion transistors Pricing per unit Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $ billions 129 122 124 129 133 127 132 139 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 millions units Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 $/Bn Tr + FPGA long-term dynamics Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Y/Y X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X% Q/Q X% X% X% X% X% X% X% X%
  10. 10. 10 • Near term: expect Q2-21 to be on par with Q1 at $11B, pushing toward a $46B 2021 • Long term: Expect continued revenue growth for designers as leading-edge processors will pay a premium to remain at the leading-edge and lower tier processors will have unit growth in more edge segments APU MARKET DYNAMICS $11b $0b $35b $39b $46b $46b $49b $54b $58b $63b -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 revenue (billions USD) Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast Y/Y Unit growth Y/Y ASP growth “APU Market Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone, Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  11. 11. 11 APU MARKET PRICING -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% - 5 10 15 20 25 30 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per unit) ASP ASP Y/Y Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  12. 12. 12 QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM APU - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 revenue ($b) Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast “APU Quarterly Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone, Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  13. 13. 13 QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM CLIENT (CPU+GPU) - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 revenue ($b) Intel AMD Nvidia Forecast Client revenue combines x86-based CPU and GPU revenues for desktop and laptop systems Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  14. 14. 14 QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM SERVER (CPU+GPU) - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 revenue ($b) Intel AMD Nvidia Forecast Server revenue combines x86-based CPU and GPU revenues for all server applications, including HPC, cloud services, and traditional enterprise Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  15. 15. 15 FOUNDRY AND LOGIC CAPEX 6% 21% 32% 18% -1% 17% -10% 0% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 capital expenditure ($b) TSMC Intel Samsung SMIC GF Total Y/Y growth Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  16. 16. 16 APU PRICE PER UNIT -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per unit) ASP ASP % change “APU Pricing” is pricing of APUs for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone, Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  17. 17. 17 APU PRICE BY SEGMENT 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per unit) All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  18. 18. 18 APU PRICE BY SEGMENT 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per unit) All APU Smartwatch Notebook AR VR SmartSpeaker SmartTV Auto Infotainment “All APU Pricing” is pricing of APUs for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone, Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  19. 19. 19 CPU PRICE BY SEGMENT 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per unit) All CPU Desktop Notebook Server Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  20. 20. 20 GPU PRICE BY SEGMENT 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per unit) All GPU Client Server Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  21. 21. 21 APU PRICE PER BILLION TRANSISTORS -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ASP ($ per Bn Tr) Price per BnTr Y/Y % “All APU Pricing” is pricing of APUs for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone, Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  22. 22. 22 APUS CONTAINING EMBEDDED AI ACCELERATORS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 percent of units Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablets Total Embedded Accelerators: important emerging feature that places upward pressure on future die sizes trends See alsoYole’s report: Artificial Intelligence Computing for Consumer 2019 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  23. 23. 23 APUS BY MEMORY INTERFACE 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 percent of units LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 LPDDR4X LPDDR5 DDR3 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  24. 24. 24 NON-SMARTPHONE APU:AVERAGE DIE SIZE Notebook SmartSpeaker SmartTV Auto Infotainment AR VR - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 die size (mm2) All Smartphone Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  25. 25. 25 CPU:AVERAGE DIE SIZE - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 die size (mm2) Notebook Desktop Server All CPU Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  26. 26. 26 GPU:AVERAGE DIE SIZE - 100 200 300 400 500 600 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 die size (mm2) Client Server All GPU Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  27. 27. 27 INDUSTRY WAFER PRODUCTION Overall wafer production up slightly as APU increases offset modest decreases in CPU+GPU *Forecasted shares are based on current foundry/designer relationships - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2023 2024 2025 2026 wafer production (k wpm - 300mm equiv) APU CPU GPU FPGA Industry 2020-2026 CAGR: 4.4% Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  28. 28. 28 APU WAFERS BY NODE - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2023 2024 2025 2026 wafer production (k wpm, 300mm equiv) 3-4nm 5-6nm 7-8nm 10nm 12-16nm 20nm 28nm 45nm Avg Node (wafer basis) Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  29. 29. 29 CPU+GPU WAFERS BY NODE - 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2023 2024 2025 2026 wafer production (k wpm, 300mm equiv) 3 nm 5 nm 7 nm 10 nm 12 nm 14 nm 20 nm 22 nm Avg Node (wafer basis) Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  30. 30. 30 FOUNDRY FPGA REVENUE PER WAFER Foundry revenue is front-end wafer processing services only. - 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 2023 2024 2025 2026 revenue per wafer ($/300mm equiv) Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  31. 31. 31 PROCESSOR MARKET FORECAST Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  32. 32. 32 Contact our SalesTeam for more information DRAM & NAND Quartely Market Monitor Cameras and Computing for Surveillance and Security 2020 (x)PU: High-End CPU and GPU for Datacenter Applications 2020 Advanced Packaging Quarterly Market Monitor Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS Yole Développement
  33. 33. 33 Contact our SalesTeam for more information Teardown Tracks Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS System Plus Consulting
  34. 34. 34 Yole Group of Companies, including Yole Développement, System Plus Consulting and PISEO, are pleased to provide you a glimpse of our accumulated knowledge. We invite you to share our data with your own network, within your presentations, press releases, dedicated articles and more, but you first need approval from Yole Public Relations department. If you are interested, feel free to contact us right now! We will also be more than happy to give you updated data and appropriate formats. Your contact: Sandrine Leroy, Dir. Public Relations Email: leroy@yole.fr HOWTO USE OUR DATA? About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2021
  35. 35. 35 About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020 CONTACTS FINANCIAL SERVICES › Jean-Christophe Eloy - eloy@yole.fr +33 4 72 83 01 80 › Ivan Donaldson - ivan.donaldson@yole.fr +1 208 850 3914 CUSTOM PROJECT SERVICES › Jérome Azémar, Yole Développement - jerome.azemar@yole.fr - +33 6 27 68 69 33 › Julie Coulon, System Plus Consulting - jcoulon@systemplus.fr - +33 2 72 17 89 85 GENERAL › Sandrine Leroy, Public Relations sandrine.leroy@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 89 › General inquiries: info@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 80 Western US & Canada Steve Laferriere - steve.laferriere@yole.fr + 1 310 600 8267 Eastern US & Canada ChrisYouman - chris.youman@yole.fr +1 919 607 9839 Europe and RoW Lizzie Levenez - lizzie.levenez@yole.fr +49 15 123 544 182 Benelux, UK & Spain Marine Wybranietz - marine.wybranietz@yole.fr +49 69 96 21 76 78 India and RoA Takashi Onozawa - takashi.onozawa@yole.fr +81 80 4371 4887 Greater China MavisWang - mavis.wang@yole.fr +886 979 336 809 +86 136 6156 6824 Korea Peter Ok - peter.ok@yole.fr +82 10 4089 0233 Japan Miho Ohtake - miho.ohtake@yole.fr +81 34 4059 204 Japan and Singapore Itsuyo Oshiba - itsuyo.oshiba@yole.fr +81 80 3577 3042 Japan Toru Hosaka – toru.hosaka@yole.fr +81 90 1775 3866 Follow us on REPORTS, MONITORS &TRACKS About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2021

For the first time, the processor monitor is including FPGA, CPU, GPU, and APU including all the IDMs, fabless companies, and foundries in the business. More information : https://www.i-micronews.com/products/application-processor-quarterly-market-monitor/

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