*** For the most updated slides please visit https://medium.com/dyl-ventures/pakistans-ecommerce-market-size-to-cross-1-2-billion-in-2018-7e91e0c37995*** Slides from my talk at the Mobile Commerce Conference on the 15th of March 2018.

1. Pakistan eCommerce
Market Size
Facts & Predictions
by
Adam Dawood

2. $ 1 BILLION by 2020
SOURCES:
MARKET EXPECTATIONS

3. 2017
July 2016 – June 2017

4. Total prepaid
eCommerce
transactions1
1.2M
Local eCommerce
merchants accepting
online payments1
571
Cumulative annual
sale2,3
PKR 9.8B
Source:
1. Annual Performance Review (APR) 2016 – 2017 – Payment Systems – State Bank of Pakistan
2. First Quarterly Report (FQR) 2017-2018, Special Section 2 – State Bank of Pakistan
3. In addition, transactions worth PKR 20.7B were carried out by consumers on international eCommerce websites
PREPAYMENT DATA

5. COD MARKET SIZE ASSUMPTION
Assumption of
COD Market Size
COD Market
Size (PKR)
Total Market
Size (PKR)
95% 186.2 B 196.0 B
90% 88.2 B 98.0 B
85% 55.5 B 65.3 B
80% 39.2 B 49 B
70% 22.9 B 32.7 B
The vast majority of
ecommerce transactions still
happen via Cash on Delivery.
We believe that COD market
share is 85%.
Assumption: Based on local knowledge and experience

6. $ 622 MILLION
CURRENT eCOMMERCE MARKET SIZE
In Financial Year 2017
Rs 65.3 Billion
USD:PKR Exchange Rate: 105
June 30th 2017 – Business Recorder

7. 2018
July 2017 – June 2018

8. ACCELERATION
In the first 6 month of
FY18 we have already
reached 95% of the
previous year’s annual
prepayment sales.
9.80
9.30
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
VOLUMEOFTRANSACTIONS(RSBILLIONS)
PREPAYMENT eCOMMERCE SALES BY
YEAR
FY17 FY18 (until Q2)
Source: Payment System Review Quarter 2 –FY18 – State Bank of Pakistan

9. eCOMMERCE SALES & VOLUME
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18
NumberofTransactions
Thousands
VolumeofTrasactions(Rs)
Billions
Quarter by Quarter Growth in PrePayment Ecommerce Sales & Volume
Volume of Transaction (Prepayment) Number of Transactions (Prepayment)
There is strong growth
pattern that emerges on
a quarter by quarter
basis.
Source: Payment System Review Quarter 2 –FY18 – State Bank of Pakistan

10. $1.2 Billion
Pakistan’s eCommerce Market Size
July 2017 - June 2018
PREDICTION

11. GLOBAL COMPARISON

12. COMPARISON TO USA, INDIA & CHINA - 2017
eCommerce Sales
(in US $ Mn)
Retail Sales
(in US $ Mn)
% of Country Retail
Sales
Global 2,290,000 23,445,000 9.77%
China 1,208,310 5,701,680 21.19%
USA 431,840 5,700,000 7.58%
India 20,059 1,082,240 1.85%
Pakistan 622 185,570 0.34%
We have an enormous
potential for growth when
we compare to the global
average.
The industry’s sales will
keep growing exponentially
for the foreseeable future.
Source: Statista

13. THANK YOU
adam@yayvo.com
@adamdawood