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Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
The myth of the
Hockey Stick
or, how Growth *actually* works
Andy Young
@andyy
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Hi, I’m Andy!
@andyy
#fb
PhotobyDanTaylor-dan@heisenbergmedia.com
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
So what is this about
“Growth” anyways?
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
What do we mean by Growth?
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● Typically growing our active customer/user base
● Growing whatever drives value in ...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● Typically growing our active customer/user base
● Growing whatever drives value in ...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● Typically growing our active customer/user base
● Growing whatever drives value in ...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Growth Hacking?
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Growth Hacking?
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Let’s talk about something REAL
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Growth Hacking..? Technical Marketing..?
Call it what you want, teams at high-growth ...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
The myth of the
Hockey Stick
a.k.a. what growth actually looks like..
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
What people think
hockey-stick growth
looks like..
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
What people think
hockey-stick growth
looks like..
..what it actually looks like
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
https://insomanic.me.uk/selective-tweets-3-years-zero-marketing-and-nearly-1m-users-l...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Selective Tweets
1.3 million users
3 years
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
http://www.david.blog/blog/the-importance-of-launching-early-and-staying-alive
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
http://www.david.blog/blog/the-importance-of-launching-early-and-staying-alive
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Which
startup
is this?
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
https://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/04/27/airbnb-data-analysis-6-million-users-by-year-en...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
http://blog.airdna.co/2015-in-review-airbnb-data-for-the-usa/
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Engineering-driven Growth
AirBnB built on top of Craigslist
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
http://blog.airdna.co/2015-in-review-airbnb-data-for-the-usa/
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
http://leananalyticsbook.com/analytics-lessons-learned-free-e-book-with-13-case-studi...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Product-driven
Growth
Dropbox succeeded with
a Referral Scheme
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Common Theme
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Companies are achieving scale in new ways:
● Modern, data-driven online marketing cha...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Companies are achieving scale in new ways:
● Modern, data-driven online marketing cha...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Growth
via the intersection of
Product, Marketing & Engineering
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● SEO
● Content Marketing
● Performance Marketing (Paid search & display, retargeting...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
What Growth is NOT
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
What Growth is NOT
There are loads of great tips and hacks out there
Subscribe to 500...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Things with big impact:
● ACQUISITION at top of funnel
○ How to reach HUGE new audien...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Understand how we grow
so we can
grow more!
Ensure our growth is sustainable
Growth G...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Growth Marketing is finding growth that is:
● Measurable
● Predictable
● Repeatable &...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
How can we grow?
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
ACQUIRING new customers
vs.
RETAINING existing customers
Ways to grow..
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Retention is a SILENT KILLER!
Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Most important: Retention Flattens
Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
When your retention curve flattens..
Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Ways to grow
Sustainably:
Growth
Loops & Engines
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Paid Engine of Growth
Pay to acquire
new users Monetise those
users
Reinvest profit i...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Viral Engine of Growth
Acquire new users
(initially via
seeding)
Each new user
invite...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Sticky Engine of Growth
Acquire new users
(any channel)
Users stick
around
Acquisitio...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2008/09/three-drivers-of-growth-for-your.html
ht...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
User-Generated Content Growth Loop
New people
discover content
via Google
Users sign ...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
B2B Content Growth Loop
New people discover
content via
search & social
Users sign up...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● Over time, you’ll typically make use of
multiple growth loops - powered by differen...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● Is your engine of growth coherent?
● Beware attempts to force a user to take
unnatu...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Further Reading
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Brian Balfour Andrew Chen Sarah Tavel Casey Winters
Reforge Uber Greylock Greylock
co...
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
Thanks, & good luck!
Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
● Bryan Balfour: The Scientific Method: How to Design &
Track Viral Growth Experiment...
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The Myth of the Hockey Stick, or How Growth Actually Works - Turing Festival 2017

  1. 1. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co The myth of the Hockey Stick or, how Growth *actually* works Andy Young @andyy
  2. 2. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Hi, I’m Andy! @andyy #fb PhotobyDanTaylor-dan@heisenbergmedia.com
  3. 3. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co So what is this about “Growth” anyways?
  4. 4. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co What do we mean by Growth?
  5. 5. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● Typically growing our active customer/user base ● Growing whatever drives value in our business What do we mean by Growth?
  6. 6. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● Typically growing our active customer/user base ● Growing whatever drives value in our business ● Not necessarily growing revenue $$$ What do we mean by Growth?
  7. 7. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● Typically growing our active customer/user base ● Growing whatever drives value in our business ● Not necessarily growing revenue $$$ ● Growing whatever’s most strategically important to us right now What do we mean by Growth?
  8. 8. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Growth Hacking?
  9. 9. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Growth Hacking?
  10. 10. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  11. 11. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  12. 12. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Let’s talk about something REAL
  13. 13. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Growth Hacking..? Technical Marketing..? Call it what you want, teams at high-growth companies are scaling to millions of users without major use of traditional mass advertising/marketing techniques.
  14. 14. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co The myth of the Hockey Stick a.k.a. what growth actually looks like..
  15. 15. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  16. 16. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  17. 17. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co What people think hockey-stick growth looks like..
  18. 18. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co What people think hockey-stick growth looks like.. ..what it actually looks like
  19. 19. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co https://insomanic.me.uk/selective-tweets-3-years-zero-marketing-and-nearly-1m-users-later-now-open-source-851a011f6d5c Selective Tweets - 1.3 million users 3 years
  20. 20. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Selective Tweets 1.3 million users 3 years
  21. 21. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  22. 22. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  23. 23. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  24. 24. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
  25. 25. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co http://www.david.blog/blog/the-importance-of-launching-early-and-staying-alive
  26. 26. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co http://www.david.blog/blog/the-importance-of-launching-early-and-staying-alive
  27. 27. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Which startup is this?
  28. 28. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co https://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/04/27/airbnb-data-analysis-6-million-users-by-year-end-only-20-active/
  29. 29. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co http://blog.airdna.co/2015-in-review-airbnb-data-for-the-usa/
  30. 30. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Engineering-driven Growth AirBnB built on top of Craigslist
  31. 31. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co http://blog.airdna.co/2015-in-review-airbnb-data-for-the-usa/
  32. 32. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co http://leananalyticsbook.com/analytics-lessons-learned-free-e-book-with-13-case-studies/
  33. 33. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Product-driven Growth Dropbox succeeded with a Referral Scheme
  34. 34. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Common Theme
  35. 35. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Companies are achieving scale in new ways: ● Modern, data-driven online marketing channels ● Growth channels embedded within the product Common Theme
  36. 36. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Companies are achieving scale in new ways: ● Modern, data-driven online marketing channels ● Growth channels embedded within the product “The best startups grow super fast not because of traditional marketing or online marketing, but because they tune the product to drive growth” - Casey Winters, Pinterest/Greylock Common Theme
  37. 37. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Growth via the intersection of Product, Marketing & Engineering
  38. 38. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● SEO ● Content Marketing ● Performance Marketing (Paid search & display, retargeting) ● Conversion Optimisation (CRO) & A/B Testing ● User testing & UX ● Viral Loops ● Strategic Pricing ● … The Growth Toolbox
  39. 39. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co What Growth is NOT
  40. 40. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co What Growth is NOT There are loads of great tips and hacks out there Subscribe to 500’s “DISTROSNACK” newsletter! But following all these cool tips will not itself bring success.
  41. 41. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Things with big impact: ● ACQUISITION at top of funnel ○ How to reach HUGE new audiences in a cost-effective way ● CONVERSION at middle of funnel ○ Attracting and drawing people deeper into engaging with you ● REVENUE at bottom of funnel ○ Close to the $$$ - convert higher % and simply make more money! Things that WILL make a difference
  42. 42. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Understand how we grow so we can grow more! Ensure our growth is sustainable Growth Goals
  43. 43. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Growth Marketing is finding growth that is: ● Measurable ● Predictable ● Repeatable & Scalable Growth is a mindset, and a process. Growth Truths
  44. 44. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co How can we grow?
  45. 45. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ACQUIRING new customers vs. RETAINING existing customers Ways to grow..
  46. 46. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Retention is a SILENT KILLER! Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
  47. 47. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Most important: Retention Flattens Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
  48. 48. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co When your retention curve flattens.. Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
  49. 49. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Ways to grow Sustainably: Growth Loops & Engines
  50. 50. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Paid Engine of Growth Pay to acquire new users Monetise those users Reinvest profit into acquiring the next set of users
  51. 51. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Viral Engine of Growth Acquire new users (initially via seeding) Each new user invites N friends % of invites convert to new users
  52. 52. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Sticky Engine of Growth Acquire new users (any channel) Users stick around Acquisition >> churn so we grow
  53. 53. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2008/09/three-drivers-of-growth-for-your.html https://www.slideshare.net/Leananalytics/lean-analytics-for-intrapreneurs-lean-startup-conference-dec-2013-public-share
  54. 54. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co User-Generated Content Growth Loop New people discover content via Google Users sign up and create new content Content is indexed by Google
  55. 55. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co B2B Content Growth Loop New people discover content via search & social Users sign up and/or follow Profit is invested in new content creation Distributed to existing followers, who amplify to new users Brian Balfour, Reforge.com
  56. 56. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● Over time, you’ll typically make use of multiple growth loops - powered by different engines ● But you’ll typically always have one loop that dominates your growth Which engine(s) work for you?
  57. 57. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● Is your engine of growth coherent? ● Beware attempts to force a user to take unnatural behaviours Watch out for FAILURE!
  58. 58. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Further Reading
  59. 59. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Brian Balfour Andrew Chen Sarah Tavel Casey Winters Reforge Uber Greylock Greylock coelevate.com andrewchen.co @sarahtavel on Medium caseyaccidental.com Who to follow
  60. 60. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co Thanks, & good luck!
  61. 61. Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co ● Bryan Balfour: The Scientific Method: How to Design & Track Viral Growth Experiments ● Dave McClure's Startup Metrics for Pirates ● Eric Ries’s Three Engines of Growth ● My deck on Analytics for Startups Further references..
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    Aug. 9, 2017

The Myth of the Hockey Stick, or How Growth Actually Works - Turing Festival 2017

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