20151015 earthsimulationoceanusoct
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Slides for my presentation on civic modeling for the Oceanus Conference October 2015 in the Sacramento Delta aboard the Aurora.
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20151015 earthsimulationoceanusoct
- 1. H O W C A N W E F O S T E R C I T I Z E N PA RT I C I PAT I O N A N D W H O L E S Y S T E M S T H I N K I N G @ A N S E L M @ M A K E R L A B
- 2. A B O U T M E • Anselm Hook (@anselm) • Software Developer • Worked on Augmented Reality interfaces for the last 5 years.
- 3. 1 . T H E L AY O F T H E L A N D
- 4. O U R W O R L D
- 5. TA K E A D E E P B R E AT H A N D C O N S I D E R O U R H O M E
- 6. A D I V E R S E B I RT H R I G H T T O P R O T E C T
- 7. W E E A C H G R E W U P C O N N E C T E D T O T H E W O R L D . H O W A R E Y O U C O N N E C T E D ?
- 8. T H E M E D I A P O RT R AY S A C R I S I S
- 9. C L I M AT E C H A N G E S E A L E V E L R I S E O C E A N A C I D I F I C AT I O N R E S O U R C E E X H A U S T I O N I N VA S I V E S P E C I E S A N T I B I O T I C C O L L A P S E H A B I TAT A N D D I V E R S I T Y L O S S M O N O C U LT U R E FA R M I N G D R O U G H T L A R G E S C A L E R E F U G E E M I G R AT I O N V I O L E N C E A N D WA R N U C L E A R WA S T E
- 10. “ I T W I L L B E D I F F I C U LT E N O U G H T O AV O I D D I S A S T E R O N P L A N E T E A RT H I N T H E N E X T H U N D R E D Y E A R S ” Stephen Hawking
- 11. 4 0 % D I V E R S I T Y D I E O F F I N T H E L A S T 2 0 0 Y E A R S I S T H I S T H E S I X T H E X T I N C T I O N ?
- 12. T H E C L AT H R AT E G U N - A N T H R O P O C E N E T I P P I N G P O I N T S ?
- 13. I T I S N ’ T A L L D O O M A N D G L O O M . F O R E X A M P L E S E E J E S S E A U S U B E L’ S C O M M E N T S A B O U T H O W M A N Y L O C A L S Y S T E M S A R E R E B O U N D I N G : H T T P : / / L O N G N O W. O R G / S E M I N A R S / 0 2 0 1 5 / J A N / 1 3 / N AT U R E - R E B O U N D I N G - L A N D - A N D - O C E A N - S PA R I N G - T H R O U G H - C O N C E N T R AT I N G - H U M A N - A C T I V I T I E S /
- 14. T H E S E I M A G E S C R E AT E C O N F L I C T I N G R E A C T I O N S I N O U R C O M M U N I T I E S • ambivalence • powerlessness • uncertainty • discord • grief • denial I T ’ S W O R T H E X A M I N I N G T H O S E E M O T I O N S A N D H O W T H E Y C O N T R O L U S . I T ’ S A L M O S T A S I F O U R W H O L E C U LT U R E N E E D S T H E R A P Y.
- 15. W E N E E D T O F I N D WAY S T O A C T I N C O N C E R T W I T H E A C H O T H E R A N D W I T H N AT U R E
- 16. W E A R E A L L S TA K E H O L D E R S I N M A N Y B I O R E G I O N A L I S S U E S .
- 17. F O R E X A M P L E - P O L I C I E S T O M A N A G E F O R E S T F I R E S I N C A L I F O R N I A M A D E T H E M W O R S E Y E T O U R D E C I S I O N M A K I N G T E C H N I Q U E S A R E S P E C TA C U L A R LY I N E F F E C T I V E .
- 18. T H E C A L I F O R N I A D R O U G H T I S T H E P R O D U C T O F 5 0 Y E A R S O F WAT E R M I S M A N A G E M E N T
- 19. C H A I R M A N M A O ’ S F O U R P E S T S C A M PA I G N H E L P E D K I L L 2 0 M I L L I O N P E O P L E
- 20. T H E VA L U E O F M A N G R O V E S WA M P S I T T U R N S O U T I S VA S T LY I N E X C E S S O F T H E VA L U E O F C U T T I N G T H E M .
- 21. T H E M A C A N D O P R O S P E C T H A D 5 0 M I L L I O N B A R R E L S E S T I M AT E D . AT $ 1 0 0 P E R B A R R E L T H I S W O U L D B E $ 5 B I L L I O N I N C O M E . T O TA L C O S T O F T H E D E E P WAT E R H O R I Z O N S P I L L I S E S T I M AT E D AT $ 5 0 B I L L I O N .
- 22. M O S T O F U S D O N O T D I R E C T LY PA RT I C I PAT E I N D E C I S I O N S T H AT A F F E C T O U R Q U A L I T Y O F L I F E . W E A R E S T E E R E D B Y M E D I A R H E T O R I C A N D U LT E R I O R M O T I V E S A R E D I F F I C U LT T O S E E . T H E F E W W H O A R E O R G A N I Z E D A R E A B L E T O D I S P R O P O RT I O N AT E LY B E N E F I T T H E M S E LV E S . S I D E - E F F E C T S O F L AW S W E PA S S O F T E N D O M I N AT E O V E R I N T E N D E D C O N S E Q U E N C E S . T H E W O R L D I S T O O C O M P L E X F O R H U M A N S T O U N D E R S TA N D . W E H AV E T O C H A N G E .
- 24. W E H AV E T O H A C K T H E S TAT U S Q U O
- 25. 2 . W H O L E S Y S T E M S M O D E L S
- 26. T H E R E I N T R O D U C T I O N O F W O LV E S I N T O Y E L L O W S T O N E M A D E T H E R I V E R S R U N D E E P E R
- 27. D I G G I N G H O L E S I N R A J A S T H A N ’ S A LWA R D I S T R I C T R E V I TA L I Z E D A C O M M U N I T Y
- 28. R E C O N N E C T I N G L A K E M E R R I T T T O T H E B AY H A S H A D A C A S C A D E O F P O S I T I V E I M PA C T S
- 29. W H AT I F Y O U C O U L D M A K E Y O U R W O R L D A V I D E O G A M E T H AT Y O U C O U L D P L AY • Imagine being able to pull up a model of your own local watershed, your community, your local politics. • Having it show the intersection of land-use, law and policy. • Predicting economic, environmental and social costs and benefits of local agriculture changes, new bylaws, climate and population changes. • Adding your own data and drawing your own conclusions and sharing them with other people.
- 30. T H E B A L I N E S E WAT E R T E M P L E S I M U L AT I O N S T O P P E D A B I L L I O N D O L L A R G R E E N R E V O L U T I O N P L A N
- 31. N E W C A L I F O R N I A WAT E R AT L A S
- 32. M O D E L I N G C A L I F O R N I A D R O U G H T
- 33. B E N E F I T S O F M O D E L B A S E D T H I N K I N G • Even a bad model is better than rhetoric and even a bad model at least has to have internal consistency. • Encouraging the use of models by ordinary citizens is educational; help people become systems thinkers and world makers. It’s a right. • These are a class of tools that could help all of us as stakeholders think better and produce better outcomes. • Computers provide brute force computation. Humans provide intuition.
- 34. 3 . H O W D O W E G E T T H E R E ?
- 35. 1 ) W E N E E D C O M M U N I T Y • Who is solving these kinds of problems using whole systems models? Examples like the re-introduction of wolves into Yellowstone are likely informed by people with an understanding of the trophic cascades. • Notably what civic participation exists; not just participation by scientists and academics? • How can we encourage others to become world makers? What tools do they need to participate?
- 36. 2 ) W E N E E D M O D E L S A N D D ATA • What and where are examples of models? California is one of the most observed and modeled places in the world. What kinds of models of this bioregion exist? • The USGS, NOAA and many government agencies have a mandate to produce open source data. But do ordinary citizens contribute data? • Beyond just data, do we have models of the relationships between things (say between salmon populations and water turbidity)?
- 37. 3 ) W E N E E D T O T RY I T • Are there examples similar to the Balinese Water Temple Simulation where models could be used to affect decisions in local government? • Are there historical topics that can be modeled using computer simulations to validate computer models (such as say the four pests campaign in China)? • Can we measure the benefits / issues of using models?
- 38. I N A W O R L D T H AT S E E M S T O B E S U C C U M B I N G T O E N T R O P Y • We can empower ourselves for better solutions; moving towards a net positive rather than just negative. • We can make this world as we wish; we can thrive, we can probably do it on the same time frames that we caused the damage within. • But we need to change and become something new: how we think, see and make decisions. We basically need to become a new kind of organism.
- 39. T H A N K Y O U • http://simulate.world collects articles and citations • https://www.facebook.com/groups/world.modelers • If you have input, suggestions or data please feel free to contact me at anselm@gmail.com or anselm@makerlab.com
Notes de l'éditeur
- - thank you - well here we are - on oceanus; - founded with an ambition to scoop up the plastic gyres and make seasteading platforms - surrounded by minds that are trying to tackle seemingly insurmountable challenges - on a weekend where not far south of us the biggest hurricane ever reported has slammed into the coast of mexico - at a time when capitalism thinks it can win against mother nature and the laws of physics - we’re juxtaposed between continuing business as usual or trying something radical - a choice between certain failure and likely failure - who are we to try? what kinds of people would willingly face into this storm? - don’t know about you but i’d rather be in this room that just about anywhere else
- In 1967 Stewart Brand campaigned with Buckminister Fuller to have NASA release to the public the first image of the Earth as seen from space. It was the first time we could see our home as a single whole.
- Before we look at the crisis I wanted to take some time just to reconnect to what we actually care about.
- I’m especially interested in those experiences which shape our values. For those of us who spent a lot of time outdoors I feel those experiences define what we want to protect.
- I am intensely curious about the specifics of the kinds of experiences each of us had. Were they urban? Were they rural? Near rivers? Mountains?
- Hawking feels that by 2100 we’ll see massive ecosystem collapse, human migration and natural devastation on a scale we can hardly conceive of today. I see him as both a media personality and as a scientist. It’s always alarming to have people you respect voice concerns and I think this contributes to the overall sense of paralysis.
- This is simply another example of how there is a story portrayed in the media about the inevitability of a crisis.
- Another example of a potential crisis.
- Different communities have responded in different ways. Conservatives question the narrative, liberals feel despair, some feel manipulated. Beyond the actual issues I’m interested in how we respond.
- In a sense we are simply primates. Our reasoning capacity is limited.
- A nice way of putting all of this is that there are objects so large moving through our world that we cannot perceive them.
- Our current decision making structures are not up to the task of dealing with a planetary crisis. Incidentally this is Puyehue - a volcano I climbed in South America before it blew up.
- A good example of unexpected consequences is the recent decision to reintroduce wolves into Yellowstone National Park. This had a significant impact on the local ecology including making the rivers run deeper and faster. The authors introduce the idea of a “trophic cascade” to explain how one change can have a deep effect on other parts of the system. If citizens in the Yellowstone bioregion had access to models that incorporated the facts, science and research of scientists in the region then it may have been possible to predict those outcomes prior to actually trying it. Reintroducing wolves is contentious because some farmers feel that wolves are a net negative (in that they kill livestock). This is a good example of where a better shared understanding between all stakeholders at a grassroots level would allow certain kinds of non-obvious decisions to be better agreed upon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysa5OBhXz-Q
- “The wells in Rajasthan’s Alwar District had dried up, thrusting the people into abject and seemingly inescapable poverty. The revival of traditional earthen dams to capture rainwater for recharging the underground water supply provided a tipping point that brought the wells back to life. And with the water came a better life for the people. It started in the spare, humble village of Gopalpura. Nearly a thousand villages are now following Gopalpura’s example.” http://www.ecotippingpoints.org/our-stories/indepth/india-rajasthan-rainwater-harvest-restoration-groundwater-johad.html This is an excellent example of how decisions can have impact at many levels. It also illuminates an often difficult to see association between poverty and environment. These people became poor because their environment was damaged. By finding ways to heal their watershed many of the traditions and values started to re-knit themselves back together. There are many more examples of this kind of work throughout the world. One of the groups working in on topics like this is https://www.digital-democracy.org/ .
- Recently the channel between Lake Merritt and the Oakland Estuary and San Francisco Bay has been re-opened. Lake Merritt was originally a brackish lagoon that swelled and shrank with the tide. It was home to otters, sea lions and migrating birds. However as the city grew the connection to the bay was closed, and sewage was pumped into the lake. The water became stagnant and noxious and wildlife fled. With the re-opening bacterial levels are at their lowest levels in years. Recently osprey and otter have been spotted as well.
- Probably one of my favorite examples of civic simulations and the power of modeling is the essay on “Emergent Properties of Balinese Water Temples” by Steve Lansing. Steve happened to be in Bali during a time that the Balinese government was trying a new “intensive green agriculture”. The Green Revolution of the 1970’s brought a lot of new intensive farming techniques to communities around the world and for some reason these practices were failing in Bali. Steve built an actual computer simulation of the more traditional practices that the Balinese had been using and was able to show that the Green Revolution practices were actually not serving Bali. His thesis had a significant impact on government policy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9ozS8BKUFI http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/83df61cc-caf2-11e1-8872-00144feabdc0.html http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/681181?sid=21106116561983&uid=2&uid=3739256&uid=4&uid=3739808
- An interactive map of water rights held in California. A water right is a granted permission to withdraw water from a river, stream, or ground water source for a "reasonable" and "beneficial" use. Currently, water rights holders claim they divert in aggregate approximately 250 million acre feet of water each year. California receives 71 million acre feet yearly from rain. (200 MAFY before evaporation)
- This is a model I am building of the California Drought. More than a model I am trying to make a toy that lets other people play with the data. It is a work in progress.
- Whole systems thinking and models are a better way to solve the class of problems we are facing.