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Antonio Marcos Alberti!
Vinicius Soares !
Artificiais!
WHAT IS THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION?
(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
VERY OFTEN, PEOPLE CITE MOORE'S LAW AS AN EXAMPLE
OF LAW CAPABLE OF PREDICTING TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTING POWER.
Gordon Moore, 2004.
“THE QUANTITY OF
TRANSISTORS THAT
CAN BE PLACED
INEXPENSIVELY ON
AN INTEGRATED
CIRCUIT HAS
DOUBLED
APPROXIMATELY
EVERY TWO YEARS.”
(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
MORE RECENTLY, RAYMOND KURZWEIL PRESENTED A
THEORY FOR TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AND A NEW
LAW THAT EXPANDS MOORE LAW TO DESCRIBE THE
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
THE LAW OF
ACCELERATING
RETURNS
(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
KURZWEIL PRESENTED A SERIES OF FIGURES SHOWING
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS FOR MEMORY CAPACITY
(DRAM IN BITS PER DOLLAR), MICROPROCESSOR CLOCK
SPEED (HZ), TRANSISTORS PER CHIP, PROCESSOR
PERFORMANCE (MIPS), MAGNETIC STORAGE (BITS PER
DOLLAR).
(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
“THE SINGULARITY IS AN ERA IN
WHICH OUR INTELLIGENCE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY
NONBIOLOGICAL AND TRILLIONS OF
TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN IT IS
TODAY—THE DAWNING OF A NEW
CIVILIZATION THAT WILL ENABLE US
TO TRANSCEND OUR BIOLOGICAL
LIMITATIONS AND AMPLIFY OUR
CREATIVITY.”
ACCORDING TO THIS BLOG, THE TERM
SINGULARITY WAS USED BY THE FIRST
TIME IN A JANUARY 1983 ISSUE OF
OMNI MAGAZINE.

“WE ARE AT THE POINT OF
ACCELERATING THE EVOLUTION OF
INTELLIGENCE ITSELF.”
SOME POSSIBLE PATHS TO TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY
•  SUPERCOMPUTING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
•  HACKING HUMAN INTELLIGENCE ON SUPERCOMPUTERS
•  SUPERCOMPUTING STIMULATED EVOLUTION
•  SELF-IMPROVING SWARMS OF MICRO/NANO ROBOTS
•  SELF-IMPROVING ROBOTICS 
•  SELF-IMPROVING INFORMATION ARCHITECTURES 
•  HUMAN-MACHINE CONVERGENCE
BENEFICIAL AI 2017
ASILOMAR, CALIFORNIA, USA
THE GOAL OF AI RESEARCH SHOULD BE TO CREATE NOT
UNDIRECTED INTELLIGENCE, BUT BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
INVESTMENTS IN AI SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY FUNDING FOR
RESEARCH ON ENSURING ITS BENEFICIAL USE:

HOW CAN WE MAKE FUTURE AI SYSTEMS HIGHLY ROBUST, SO
THAT THEY DO WHAT WE WANT WITHOUT MALFUNCTIONING OR
GETTING HACKED?

HOW CAN WE GROW OUR PROSPERITY THROUGH AUTOMATION
WHILE MAINTAINING PEOPLE’S RESOURCES AND PURPOSE?
HOW CAN WE UPDATE OUR LEGAL SYSTEMS TO BE MORE FAIR
AND EFFICIENT, TO KEEP PACE WITH AI, AND TO MANAGE THE
RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH AI?

WHAT SET OF VALUES SHOULD AI BE ALIGNED WITH, AND WHAT
LEGAL AND ETHICAL STATUS SHOULD IT HAVE?
THERE SHOULD BE CONSTRUCTIVE AND HEALTHY EXCHANGE
BETWEEN AI RESEARCHERS AND POLICY-MAKERS.
TEAMS DEVELOPING AI SYSTEMS SHOULD ACTIVELY COOPERATE
TO AVOID CORNER-CUTTING ON SAFETY STANDARDS.
IF AN AI SYSTEM CAUSES HARM, IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO
ASCERTAIN WHY.
(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
THANK YOU!!

 Antonio Marcos Alberti!
Vinicius Soares!

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Technological Evolution and the Pace of AI Development

  • 1. Antonio Marcos Alberti! Vinicius Soares ! Artificiais!
  • 2. WHAT IS THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION?
  • 3. (c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.! VERY OFTEN, PEOPLE CITE MOORE'S LAW AS AN EXAMPLE OF LAW CAPABLE OF PREDICTING TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTING POWER. Gordon Moore, 2004.
  • 4. “THE QUANTITY OF TRANSISTORS THAT CAN BE PLACED INEXPENSIVELY ON AN INTEGRATED CIRCUIT HAS DOUBLED APPROXIMATELY EVERY TWO YEARS.”
  • 5. (c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.! MORE RECENTLY, RAYMOND KURZWEIL PRESENTED A THEORY FOR TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AND A NEW LAW THAT EXPANDS MOORE LAW TO DESCRIBE THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
  • 6. (c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.! KURZWEIL PRESENTED A SERIES OF FIGURES SHOWING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS FOR MEMORY CAPACITY (DRAM IN BITS PER DOLLAR), MICROPROCESSOR CLOCK SPEED (HZ), TRANSISTORS PER CHIP, PROCESSOR PERFORMANCE (MIPS), MAGNETIC STORAGE (BITS PER DOLLAR).
  • 7. (c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
  • 8. (c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!
  • 9. “THE SINGULARITY IS AN ERA IN WHICH OUR INTELLIGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NONBIOLOGICAL AND TRILLIONS OF TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN IT IS TODAY—THE DAWNING OF A NEW CIVILIZATION THAT WILL ENABLE US TO TRANSCEND OUR BIOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS AND AMPLIFY OUR CREATIVITY.”
  • 10.
  • 11. ACCORDING TO THIS BLOG, THE TERM SINGULARITY WAS USED BY THE FIRST TIME IN A JANUARY 1983 ISSUE OF OMNI MAGAZINE. “WE ARE AT THE POINT OF ACCELERATING THE EVOLUTION OF INTELLIGENCE ITSELF.”
  • 12. SOME POSSIBLE PATHS TO TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY •  SUPERCOMPUTING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •  HACKING HUMAN INTELLIGENCE ON SUPERCOMPUTERS •  SUPERCOMPUTING STIMULATED EVOLUTION •  SELF-IMPROVING SWARMS OF MICRO/NANO ROBOTS •  SELF-IMPROVING ROBOTICS •  SELF-IMPROVING INFORMATION ARCHITECTURES •  HUMAN-MACHINE CONVERGENCE
  • 13. BENEFICIAL AI 2017 ASILOMAR, CALIFORNIA, USA
  • 14. THE GOAL OF AI RESEARCH SHOULD BE TO CREATE NOT UNDIRECTED INTELLIGENCE, BUT BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
  • 15. INVESTMENTS IN AI SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY FUNDING FOR RESEARCH ON ENSURING ITS BENEFICIAL USE: HOW CAN WE MAKE FUTURE AI SYSTEMS HIGHLY ROBUST, SO THAT THEY DO WHAT WE WANT WITHOUT MALFUNCTIONING OR GETTING HACKED? HOW CAN WE GROW OUR PROSPERITY THROUGH AUTOMATION WHILE MAINTAINING PEOPLE’S RESOURCES AND PURPOSE?
  • 16. HOW CAN WE UPDATE OUR LEGAL SYSTEMS TO BE MORE FAIR AND EFFICIENT, TO KEEP PACE WITH AI, AND TO MANAGE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH AI? WHAT SET OF VALUES SHOULD AI BE ALIGNED WITH, AND WHAT LEGAL AND ETHICAL STATUS SHOULD IT HAVE?
  • 17. THERE SHOULD BE CONSTRUCTIVE AND HEALTHY EXCHANGE BETWEEN AI RESEARCHERS AND POLICY-MAKERS.
  • 18. TEAMS DEVELOPING AI SYSTEMS SHOULD ACTIVELY COOPERATE TO AVOID CORNER-CUTTING ON SAFETY STANDARDS.
  • 19. IF AN AI SYSTEM CAUSES HARM, IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN WHY.
  • 20. (c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.! THANK YOU!! Antonio Marcos Alberti! Vinicius Soares!