Презентация к выступлению на конференции Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems в Турку, июнь 2015

1. The “inevitable future”
scenario-building
methodology
The Future Designing Research Group
Artiom Zheltov
The Future Designing Research Group
Russia

2. A “normal” scenario framework
That’s nice, but won’t work.
The Future Designing Research Group 2
“Too Risky”
“Late choice”
“Inertial”
“Optimistical”
“Breakthrough”
“Just in case”
Time
Choicesanddecisions
Point 5
Point 1 Point 2 Point 3
Point 4

3. The mighty 2x2 matrix
Rich and
Traditional
Rich and
Innovative
Poor and
Traditional
Poor and
Innovative
That’s convenient, but the reality is a bit more complicated.
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4. The Inevitable Future scenario-building framework
Linking scenarios to real life and previous events.
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5. “The Inevitable Future” framework: the features
Combines real-life hard trends with future scenario
possibilities and variations
Compatibility with any scenario-building method
Large spectrum of possibilities and strategies for
decision-makers.
The chosen future may be combined from different
scenarios.
Built-in scenario reality check
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6. The description of «the inevitable future» and «the
impossible future» in the chosen area.
Descriptions of the most probable scenarios. Or of
the most interesting ones.
An outline of strategy to bring up a chosen future.
“The Inevitable Future” framework: the results
6The Future Designing Research Group

7. "Science and Technology foresight - 2050” for for
governmental authorities of the Russian
Federation
"Future of Global Nuclear Power - 2050” for
Rosatom
"Future of Health 2030” for the Ministry of Health
and Social Development
“City 3.0” joint research project
“Future of Territorial Engineering”
“Future of tourism in Komi Republic”
Foresights for Russian cities
Some cases of use
7The Future Designing Research Group

8. 8
The Future Designing Research Group
www.future-designing.org
Artiom Zheltov
artiom.zheltov@gmail.com
FB: artiom.zheltov
+7 (921) 953-47-29