Presentation about various aspects of the Future Internet, Cloud Computing, business models, and semantics, for the ACTIVE Summer School, Bled (Slovenia), 6 September 2009. Also available as video on http://videolectures.net/active09_zwegers_ficc/

1. On Future Internet,
Cloud Computing,
and Semantics
– You name it
Arian Zwegers
European Commission
Information Society and Media Directorate General
Software & Service Architectures and Infrastructures Unit

2. Overview
• Future Internet
– Today’s Internet
– Problems and opportunities
– Different perspectives
– What’s next?
• Internet of Services
– Vision
– Cloud Computing – What is it?
– Cloud Computing – Market values
– Business models
– Business strategies
– Some issues for debate
– What’s next?
• Semantics
– Some examples
– European research in semantics
– What’s next?
• Work Programme 2009-10

3. Future Internet
Today’s Internet
Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)

4. Future Internet
Today’s Internet
Cable
Mobile VPN
Public Internet
Satellite Broadcast
PSTN
Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)

5. Future Internet
Today’s Internet
Communication Resources
Instant
messaging IaaS
Free email
Cable
Mobile VPN PaaS
Search Public Internet SaaS
engines Business Services
Satellite Broadcast
Information
PSTN Virtual Worlds
Sharing
files
Social & Professional Other content-related
networks Content services
Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)

6. Future Internet
Today’s Internet
Communication Resources
Instant
messaging IaaS
Free email
Cable
Mobile VPN PaaS
Search Public Internet SaaS
engines Business Services
Satellite Broadcast
Information
PSTN Virtual Worlds
Sharing
files
Social & Professional Other content-related
networks Content services
Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)

7. Future Internet
World Internet Penetration Rates
by Geographic Regions
251 / 340
21 / 35
402 / 804
176 / 587
48 / 203
704 / 3,808
66 / 991

8. Future Internet
World Internet Penetration Rates
by Geographic Regions
251 / 340
21 / 35
402 / 804
• 480,000,000: newspapers (daily)
176 / 587
• 1,500,000,000: TV sets in use
• 1,700,000,000:48 / 203 cards
credit
• 2,250,000,000: tooth brushes in use
704 / 3,808
• 4,000,000,000: mobile phone subscriptions
66 / 991
“India has more honours kids than America has kids”
(sometimes size matters)
Source: “Did you know 3.0”, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/hirsch30/social-mobile-convergence-in-gaming

9. Future Internet
Current/emerging problems and opportunities
• Current Internet was never designed to be a critical
part of an economy’s infrastructure
• Net-delivered services are reshaping the world
(search, media, games, social networking, etc.)
• Tripling of the number of people connected (1.5 3B)
• Addition of billions—perhaps even hundreds of
billions—of devices (sensors, tags, micro controllers)
• User generated content leads to a massive increase
of creative flow of content and processes
• Balance the perceived need for control with the
creativity that spawns innovation—and profit?
• Towards tethered appliances or generative
technology?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hIQjrMHTv4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAsb4gtEpaw
http://iiea.com/zittrain/video.wmv
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDgxGN6cqTA

10. Future Internet
What is it?

11. Future Internet
Different perspectives and their danger
Internet of Services, Service Web 3D Internet
Trust
Security
Networks of the Future
http://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/EXPORT/DL/38496.pdf Internet of Things
http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/publications/internetofthings/
Second Life

12. Future Internet
Different perspectives and their danger
Internet of Services, Service Web 3D Internet
Trust
Conway’s Law:
“organisations which design
systems are constrained to
produce systems which are copies of
the [communication] structures of
these organisations” (1968)
Security
Networks of the Future
http://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/EXPORT/DL/38496.pdf Internet of Things
http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/publications/internetofthings/
Second Life

13. Future Internet
What’s next?
Future Internet Communication
• Strengthening R&D investments
– Comprehensive approach to R&D
– Minimum 200 M€/year for 2011-2013
– Future Internet Assembly
• Leveraging Member States initiatives
• Building a public-private partnership
– Use of FP7 instruments for 2011-2013
– Specific WP and modalities
– Additional 300 M€ for 2011-2013
– Approach for FP8 by end 2011
To be published in September 2009
See http://ec.europa.eu/foi

14. Future Internet
What’s next?
Future Internet public-private partnership (PPP)
• Objectives
– Advancing European industrial know-how in Future
Internet technologies and systems
– Supporting emergence of Future Internet-enhanced
applications of public relevance
• Recently initiated and proposed by industry
– Industry leadership expected!
– Industry leadership expected!!
– Industry leadership expected!!!
• Role of European Technology Platforms?
• EC report on instruments
• EC report on contents
See http://ec.europa.eu/foi, http://www.future-internet.eu

15. Internet of Services
Vision
A multitude of connected IT services,
which are offered, bought, sold,
used, repurposed, and composed
by a worldwide network of
service providers, consumers,
aggregators, and brokers
- resulting in -
a new way of offering, using, and
organising IT supported
functionality
Number of Web services found by SEEKDA crawler
Adapted from SAP Research, 2008, and SEEKDA, 2009 during the past 26 months (June 2009)

16. Internet of Services
Cloud Computing – Everything old is new again?
Adapted from http://www.slideshare.net/midtownninja/cloud-computing-and-startups,
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/09/business/internet-critic-who-not-shy-
about-ruffling-big-names-high-technology.html

17. Internet of Services
Cloud Computing – Everything is renamed?
"The interesting thing about cloud computing is
that we've redefined cloud computing to
include everything that we already do. I can't
think of anything that isn't cloud computing
with all of these announcements. The
computer industry is the only industry that is
more fashion-driven than women's fashion.
Maybe I'm an idiot, but I have no idea what
anyone is talking about. What is it? It's
complete gibberish. It's insane. When is this
idiocy going to stop?”
Larry Ellison, 26 September 2008

18. Internet of Services
Cloud Computing – What is it?
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/midtownninja/cloud-computing-and-startups

19. Internet of Services
Cloud Computing – What is it?
Cloud computing is a model for enabling
convenient, on-demand network access to a
shared pool of configurable computing resources
(e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and
rapidly provisioned
services) that can be
and released with minimal
management effort or service provider
interaction
(Source: NIST Cloud Computing Project)
http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/cloud-computing/cloud-def-v14.doc

20. Internet of Services
Cloud Computing – What is different?
Source: Gartner, 2008

21. Internet of Services
Cloud Computing – Every cloud has a silver lining
Cloud Computing ‐ EU27
Worldwide by 2012 8 000 SaaS Total
7 000
• SaaS: $21bn
6 000
– 20% CAGR 5 000 PaaS Total
• PaaS: $9bn
M€
4 000
– 160% CAGR 3 000
2 000
• IaaS: $4bn IaaS Total
1 000
– 60% CAGR 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Merrill Lynch:
Cloud computing market opportunity by 2011 =
$95bn in business and productivity apps +
$65bn in online advertising =
$160bn
Sources: 451 Group, AMR, Gartner, IDC, William Blair & Co., Merrill Lynch, PAC,
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/study-sw-2009_en.html

22. Internet of Services
Business Models: factors to consider (1/2)
• Generative technology vs Tethered
Appliances
– Generative technology
• Configurable, processable
• Development mediated through market model
– Tethered appliances
• Need for ‘men in white coats’
• Development mediated through company
• Ecosystems
– Variety of applications based on platform, and/or
– Business partnerships, and/or
– Relationships with suppliers and consumers
Adapted from Li, 2009

23. Internet of Services
Business Models: factors to consider (2/2)
• Services
– From shrink-wrapped, packaged products
to Software as a Service
– Focus from basic network services to
“more valuable” software services
• Universality & Utility
– Universal service: utility, affordability,
accessibility, availability, quality
– Utility: right to the service in question
– Scarcity and market power
Adapted from Li, 2009

24. Internet of Services
Business Strategies (1/2)
• Protection of intellectual property
– Patents and trade secrets
– Right to exclude others vs
right to exclusivity
• Bundling of technologies
– “A superior offering”
– Distribution advantages and
network effects
Adapted from Li, 2009

25. Internet of Services
Business Strategies (2/2)
• Standards
– Openness, interoperability
and market as arbiter
– Defensive strategies and publishing APIs
• Open source
– Collective intelligence, added value,
management of development process
• Long tail
– Market niches, smaller customers,
customisation, choice
Adapted from Li, 2009

26. Internet of Services
Some issues for debate
http://dilbert.com/2009-08-30/

27. Internet of Services
Some issues for debate: SaaS, a silver bullet?
Drivers
• Maintenance fees are the
gravy train of enterprise
software
• Costs savings (acquisition
and maintenance)
• Predictability of software
management costs
• Complexity reduction
• Increasing offerings
available in the market,
increasing customer
choice
• Increasing provider
accountability
Adapted from Financial Times, 27 August 2008
“The end of a software gravy train”

28. Internet of Services
Some issues for debate: SaaS, a silver bullet?
Drivers Inhibitors
• Maintenance fees are the • “Tethered appliances”
gravy train of enterprise argument (Zittrain)
software • From privacy policies to
• Costs savings (acquisition portability policies
and maintenance) • Switching costs
• Predictability of software • Reliability software-on-
management costs demand products/services
• Complexity reduction • Perceived lack of
• Increasing offerings functionality, security,
available in the market, customisation, and
increasing customer integration capabilities
choice • Putting critical information
• Increasing provider off-premise?
accountability • Service provider viability
Adapted from Financial Times, 27 August 2008
“The end of a software gravy train”

29. Internet of Services
Some issues for debate: Billions of services?
Billions of services Service Parks
• Everybody is a potential • Trusted services from
service provider recognised brands
• Everybody potentially uses • Sets of services with rules
services from everybody for combining and
• Requires work on service modifying them
discovery, composition, • Homogeneous semantics
semantics for • Guaranteed SLAs
heterogeneous services • Like the old vision, but in
a park only
Source: Charles Petrie, Christoph Bussler
“The Myth of Open Web Services –
The Rise of the Service Parks”
IEEE Internet Computing, May/June 2008, pp 93-95
Number of Web services found by SEEKDA
crawler during the past 26 months
Source: SEEKDA, 2009

30. Internet of Services
Some issues for debate: independent thinking?

31. Internet of Services
What’s next?
FP&SP Proposed
text Orientations
(ICT Dirs)
ISTAG
Reports
Consul- Draft WP
tation (ICT Dirs)
Reports
ETP SRAs First draft to
ICTC for
Consolidation discussion
workshop
IPPA
report Full text
report
for opinion
Road-
Commission
mapping
Reports Decision
WP
Workshop published
reports
Call(s)
published
Online
consultation
12/2009 04/2010 05/2010 10/2010 11/2010 11/2010 11/2010
Note: dates are tentative

32. Internet of Services
What’s next?
Preparing for WP2011-13
• Consultations
– Long-term research challenges
– Convergence
– Cloud computing
– Software evolution and maintenance
– Other consultations?
• Studies
• Get involved!!

33. Semantics
What Semantics?
http://searchpoint.ijs.si

34. Semantics
SOA4All
SOA
As the emerging dominant paradigm for
application development which abstracts
Web principles from software to the notion of a service Context
To scale SOA to a Adapting to meet local
world wide web environment constraints,
communications organizational policies
infrastructure and personal preferences
Web 2.0
Semantic Web
As a means to structure
human-machine To automate service
cooperation in an efficient discovery, mediation &
& cost-effective manner composition
http://www.soa4all.eu

35. Semantics
SOA4All overall architecture
http://www.soa4all.eu

36. Semantics
Marrying Ontology and Software Technology
http://www.most-project.eu/

37. Semantics
Service Web 3.0
• Future Internet roadmap
• Future Internet video
http://www.serviceweb30.eu/

38. Semantics
EU semantics research: vision without execution?
• Status based on ESTC 2008
• Vision
– Various theories, concepts, languages,
frameworks, etc
– Various prototype implementations
– Various standardisation activities
• Execution
– How about technology providers?
– How about take-up?
– Where is the money?
• Research: a means to an end!?

39. Semantics
EU semantics research: vision without execution?
“ACTIVE is not just about research, it’s
also about realising the value from
that research. That means spreading
the word about what we are doing, not “Knowing is not enough;
just within the research community we must apply.
but also to the innovators who will Willing is not enough;
adopt ACTIVE technology in their we must do.”
enterprises. At the same time,
ACTIVE’s commercial partners will be
exploiting the project’s innovation
portfolio, while ACTIVE’s research
partners will be creating software
components for use by themselves and
others in future research and
development”
http://www.active-project.eu/publications.html

40. Semantics
What’s next?
Semantics in FP7-ICT
• ICT research addresses the
development of Semantic
Technologies in diverse Strategic
Objectives
• Core objective for research or in
function of?

41. So?
• Where is Europe?
• “Web 3.0 = Google Inc?”
• Issues with Internet of Services and Cloud
Computing
• What can Europe do?
Framework Programmes
(National programmes)
(Software strategy)
(Cloud Computing
workshops)
(Other?)
• Are we going to act
(or not)?

42. WP2009-10
7th Framework Programme (2007-2013)
Biotechnology
2. Food, Agriculture
Production Techn.
4. Nano, Materials,
COOPERATION
Research
8. Socio-economic
6. Environment
7. Transport
10. Security
5. Energy
1. Health
9. Space
3. ICT
€ 32 B
€ 7.5 B
IDEAS European Research Council
PEOPLE Marie Curie Actions
€ 4.7 B
Research Research for Regions of
Research Science in International
CAPACITIES Infrastruc- the benefit of Know-
Potential Society Co-operation
tures SMEs ledge
€ 4.2 B
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/

43. WP2009-10
ICT WP2009-2010, ~2 B€ total
i2010 Socio-economic goals
Flagships
Digital Towards ICT for ICT for
Libraries sustainable Mobility, Independent
and and Environmental Living,
ETPs Content personalised Sustainability Inclusion
healthcare and Energy and
Efficiency Governance
Network and
Technology roadblocks
Service
Future and Emerging
Infrastructures
Technologies
Cognitive Systems,
Interaction,
Robotics
Components,
Systems,
Engineering
ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/ict-wp-2009-10_en.pdf

44. WP2009-10
Challenge 1
Call 4 Call 5
80 MEuro 37 MEuro
The Future Internet
1.3 Internet of Things
1.5 Networked Media
and Enterprise
and 3D Internet
environments Call 5
1.4 Trustworthy ICT
Call 5 110 MEuro
90 MEuro 1.2 Internet of Services,
Software and Virtualisation
Call 4
110 MEuro
1.1 Network of the Future
Call 5
Call 5 1.6 Future Internet experimental facility 80 MEuro
50 MEuro and experimentally-driven research

45. WP2009-10
Internet of Services, Software and Virtualisation
ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/ict-wp-2009-10_en.pdf

46. WP2009-10
Objective 1.2, Problems and opportunities (1/2)
• Issues with service architectures and platforms
– Existing web-based service front-ends are based on
monolithic, inflexible, non-context-aware, non-
customizable and unfriendly UIs
– How to deal with many, many diverse services?
– How to manage many, diverse underlying hardware and
software resources?
Service Architectures and Platforms for the Future
Internet (CP)
– Service front ends
– Open, scalable, dependable service platforms,
architectures, and specific platform components
– Virtualised infrastructures
Text in black: issues, challenges, opportunities
Text in blue: Work Programme target outcomes
Remember: The Work Programme text is the official reference for the call

47. WP2009-10
Objective 1.2, Problems and opportunities (2/2)
• Issues with very large, dynamic, open service networks
– From design time to run-time
– Quality of open systems without fixed system boundaries
– Opportunities with open source software and service
engineering?
Highly Innovative Service / Software Engineering (CP)
– Service / Software engineering methods and tools
– Verification and validation methods, tools and techniques
– Methods, tools and approaches specifically supporting the
development, deployment and evolution of open source
software
• Lack of coordination of current and future research efforts
Coordination and support actions (CSA)
Obj 1.2 Instruments: IP, STREP, CSA
Call 5 Budget CP: 107 M€
110 M€ Budget CSA: 3 M€
Remember: The Work Programme text is the official reference for the call

48. WP2009-10
Objective 1.2, Expected Impact
• Service development, management and interoperability in a converged environment
Contribution to Future Internet
• Improving scalability, predictability, responsiveness and throughput
Technological advances in software/service engineering
• Infrastructure operators with innovative service offerings on scalable infrastructure
More competitive environment
• Standardised open (source) platforms and interfaces
Lowered barriers for service providers
• Innovative service front ends and higher user empowerment
Massive uptake of high-added value services
• Platforms enabling "third party generated services"
More advanced/dynamic online communities
• Flexible and resilient platforms for software/service engineering, design, development,
management and interoperability
Strengthened European industry for software, software services, and Web services
• Tailored technologies
Meeting key societal and economical needs
Text in black: enablers, outcomes
Text in blue: Work Programme expected impact
Remember: The Work Programme text is the official reference for the call

49. WP2009-10
Current FP7 projects under Objective 1.2
Service front-ends
FAST, m:Ciudad, OPEN, Persist, ServFace Service/Software
Engineering
(complexity,
dependability)
Service Architectures
DEPLOY, ALIVE,
SLA@SOI, SOA4ALL, OMP, Romulus, SHAPE
COMPAS, DIVA,
MANCOOSI, MOST,
Protest, Q-ImPrESS
Virtualised Infrastructures
IRMOS, RESERVOIR, ADMIRE, SmartLM, STREAM
Reference service architecture
NEXOF-RA
Network of Excellence: S-Cube
Support actions
NESSI 2010, Service Web 3.0, Flossinclude
• 181 M€ invested, 120 M€ EC contribution
• Timeframe 2008-2011
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/projects_en.html

50. And now what?
WE have a problem!
What are YOU going to do about it?

51. Conclusions
• Future Internet is happening
• Internet of Services is a major element of
Future Internet
• Business models: ‘factors’ and strategies to
consider
• Issues with Internet of Services
• Role of semantics
• Interdisciplinary research is needed for the
Future Internet
• Research is a means to an end
• Knowing is not enough; we must apply.
Willing is not enough; we must do.

52. Questions?

53. For more information
FP7
FP7
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/
Software & Service Architectures and Infrastructures
Software & Service Architectures and Infrastructures
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/
Future Internet
Future Internet
http://ec.europa.eu/foi
http://ec.europa.eu/foi
http://www.future-internet.eu/
http://www.future-internet.eu/
This presentation
This presentation
http://www.slideshare.net/azwegers
http://www.slideshare.net/azwegers
E-mail
E-mail
Arian.Zwegers@ec.europa.eu
Arian.Zwegers@ec.europa.eu