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As the Future
Catches You

Dr. Linda Baer
We are educating for careers that have
not been created, using technology not
yet invented to solve problems that
haven’t been discovered.

 “Shift Happens” UTube
We have a symbiotic relationship with our
community… and our community takes our story
to the world.
University of Tasmania
Ever wanted to run away and join the circus
           (with your parents’ permission)
Ordinary Kids Doing Extraordinary Things

The Flying Fruit Fly Circus School is a year 3-10
state government school working in a symbolic
relationship with the Flying Fruit Fly Circus
located in Albury Wodonga on the New South
Wales-Victorian border . The circus was
established in 1979 and the school became its
educational arm in 1987.
Mapping Australian Higher Education
 •    Rapid growth over past 40 years
        – 1970s 3%, 2011 25%; 2025 40%
        – 336,000 international students
 •    Increase degree attainment
 •    Knowledge economy make higher education vital to Australia’s prosperity
 •    Student survey data – AUSSE/NSSE
        – Satisfaction with teaching
        – Less student engagement
 •    Teaching and research balance
 •    Demand-driven funding and skill shortages
 •    Universities enjoy high levels of public confidence – 80% in 2010

 Mapping Australian Higher Education, Andrew Norton, January 2012
"Higher Education at the Crossroads”
                            Emerging Policy Issues
•   Possible move from the "one size fits all" model for funding and offerings
     –   greater degree of specialization
     –   differential HECs/HELP loans between institutions
     –   greater fee "flexibility"
     –   "teaching only" institutions
•   Research funding models, esp. research collaboration with industry
•   Relative roles of the Commonwealth and states-- more state funding
•   Need to improve linkages with predicted needs of industry
•   Employers indicated persistent difficulties in finding appropriate staff
•   Degree of cross-over between higher education and VET - currently quite small

    Higher Education in Australia: Structure, Policy & Debate, Jim Breen, Monash University December 2002
    Mapping Australian Higher Education, Andrew Norton, January 2012
Deakin University wins the 2011 National Health Fusion Team Challenge
An team of Deakin students have won the National Health Fusion Team Challenge, a national extracurricular competition between mixed
Interprofessional teams of health students nearing the end of their studies.
Deakin University medical researchers find potential new treatment for bipolar depression
Deakin University medical researchers have found that an antioxidant, N-acetylcysteine (NAC), is an effective treatment for bipolar depression.
World leaders to debate multiculturalism, citizenship and identity at social inclusion forum
Deakin University, under the auspices of the UN Alliance of Civilisations (UNAOC), will bring the UN Forum on Social Inclusion to Australia for the first
time on 7 October at Melbourne Town Hall.
US, Aussie and Chinese experts gather for first time to debate rise of China
Deakin University's experts on China and Asia, and for the first time other leading experts from China and the US will aim to create a global and
regional buzz around China's rising role in the region at the 2011 Fulbright Symposium.
Re-inventing the wheel
Carbon Revolution (CFusion), a Victorian company that, in partnership with Deakin University, produced the world's first one piece carbon fibre wheel,
has been showcased at a Clean Technology Showcase in Canberra, an event launched by the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard and Innovation Minister
Senator Kim Carr.
Deakin Professor works with UN to put culture on the global economic agenda
Deakin Professor part of forum seeking input on the development of an index to measure the impact cultural diversity has on a country's economy and
human development.
University of Singapore Reform
• Established an International Academic Advisory Panel, which
  aimed to help the government in establishing a world-class
  higher education system (Ministry of Education [MOE],
  Singapore 2001).
• Established its third university, the Singapore Management University
  (SMU), in August 2000. This privately-owned institution was formed in
  collaboration with the Wharton School of Business at the University of
  Pennsylvania, which thus implies a more diversified governance and
  funding mechanism adopted by the government.
• Universities link up their missions with their internal structures regarding
  talent management, organizational processes and resource allocation
Singapore Initiatives
• Promoting transnational higher education in the joint-degree
  program arranged between the local universities and their overseas
  partners.
• Policy to support transnational higher education, the Singapore
  government also offers a comprehensive package of financial-aid to
  international students through several public channels
• Recent immigration policies that aim to attract talented and skilled
  individuals to live and work in Singapore, in addition, have also
  facilitated the development of its transnational education industry.
The Quest for Regional Hub of Education: Searching for New Governance and Regulatory Regimes in
Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia by Ka Ho Mok 2009
University of Tasmania
University of Tasmania
• What is the Tasmanian Moment?
• UTAS makes far-reaching educational, cultural and economic
  contributions to Tasmania and the world. While maintaining a
  strong and distinctive Tasmanian identity, programs and research
  are international in scope, vision and standards. The UTAS family
  includes around 50,000 graduates who are now scattered across
  the globe.
• UTAS is connected and contemporary, creating life-changing, life-
  shaping experiences that provide the foundation on which to build
  careers and lives for our students.
United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 http://bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm
Four Challenges for the Next Decade
Completion challenge              Capacity challenge
                              • Organizational capacity
 Knowledge & skills gap
                              • Talent and skills
 Low completion rates        • Collaboration
 Performance breakthroughs   • Culture

Funding challenge             Innovation challenge
   State budget cuts
                                 “Islands of innovation”
   College debt
                                 Traditional models
   New business models for
    sustainability
                                 Immunity to change

                                                            14
COMPLETION CHALLENGE
Knowledge & Skill Gap
• Community college students are in trouble
• Need better alignment to support college readiness
• About 65% of all community college students
  nationwide need some form of remedial education
• Less than one quarter of the students go on to earn
  any degree or certificate in eight years
• Need to provide ways for adults in the workforce to
  return to college -- 22% attended college but didn’t
  complete
Completion Rates Remain Roughly Consistent
                                        Graduation rates at 150% of time
                     70
                                                                         2-yr colleges          4-yr colleges
                     60

                     50

                     40

                     30

                     20

                     10

                       0
                               1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001      2002         2003      2004         2005
                                                                               Cohort year
Source: New York Times; NCES
                                                                                                                       17
Completion Challenge




Source: Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics. OECD, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Note: Low income   18
defined as 185% of poverty line, consistent with K-12 free and reduced lunch threshold
The Great Paradox
                       Need for Breakthroughs in Performance

      Rising                                                                                            Deeper
      expectations                                Higher                                   More
                                                                                                       learning
                                                enrollments                             completions
                                                                                                      outcomes

      Constrained                               Limited seat
                                                                                                      Declining
      resources                                                                         Budget cuts    family
                                                  capacity
                                                                                                      ability to
                                                                                                        pay




Source: 2011 Community Colleges and the Economy, AACC/Campus Computing Project, April 2011;
 Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive, Field dates:
                                                                                                                   19
FINANCIAL CHALLENGE
Costs Increases




Source: New York Times; NCES
                                                 21
College Debt
The total U.S. student loan debt is now up to
$870 billion, which is more than the national
auto loan debt or credit cards debt, according to
an article from the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York. Americans owe $693 billion in credit card
debt and $730 billion in auto loans
NEED FOR SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS
                 MODELS
•   Metrics for the 21st Century
•   Productivity
•   Access, affordability and quality
•   For-profits models for affordability
CAPACITY CHALLENGES
Organizational Capacity
•   Leadership for a New Age
•   Teaching, Learning and Student Success
•   Teams, Collaboratives and Crossing Boundaries
•   Professional Development
•   Sustainability
•   Culture – Persistent Restlessness for
    Improvement
INNOVATION CHALLENGES
Our duty is to wholly reinvent ourselves. We are
American’s future---
intellectually, socially, culturally.”

Gordon Gee, President of Ohio State University
Innovation Challenge
•   Lack business models that bring solutions to scale
•   Resistance to change
•   Slow, decentralized decision cycles
•   Entrenched interests
•   Suspicion of for-profit players
•   Accreditation systems
Scaling Innovation
2007 Education market
      Number of                                            Actual companies
      companies                                            Projected distribution
         160
         140
         120                                                                                 Only 2 of 67 orgs funded
         100                                                                                 by US Department of
          80                                                                                 Education innovation
          60
                                                                                             grants scaled/are still
                                                                                             operational
          40
          20
            0     1           5         20        100         400
                                                                   Revenue
                                                                US$ Millions
Source: McKinsey Analysis of EMR 2007 K-12 report and Berkerey Noyes 2007 investment analysis (unpublished))
TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE
Trends for the Future
1. New models of blended and online courses
Model challengers taking many forms
Trends for the Future
1. New models of blended and online courses
2. Do it yourself education
Do It Yourself University
Khan Academy
• Small bursts of knowledge
• Taking a mastery-based approach to learning
• Creating collaborative learning using focused coaching by the
  teacher
• Dashboard that provides real-time data on student
  performance to individual students as well as their
  teachers, mentors or parents
• Adaptive exercise software platform

http://www.khanacademy.org/
'Badges' Earned Online Pose Challenge to
      Traditional College Diplomas




     Photo illustration by Bob McGrath for The Chronicle
Massively Open Online Courses
Trends for the Future
1. New models of blended and online courses
2. Do it yourself education
3. Big data and analytics
ANALYTICS IS THE “UNIVERSAL
DECODER” FOR EDUCATIONAL REFORM
Big Data: The Next Frontier for
        Innovation, Competition, and Productivity
• Unlock significant value by making data more
  transparent and useable
• Transactional data more accurate and detailed
• Segmentation of customers to tailor products and
  services
• Improves decision making
• Improves development of next generation products
  and services
http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/MGI/Research/Technology_and_Innovation/Big_data_The_next_frontier_for_innovation
Amazon features




                  43
D2L Analytics Solutions

               Forecasting,
               Risk Analytics                  Advanced
                                               Data
Reporting                       Optimization   Visualization
Analytics                       Analytics
Trends for the Future
1.   New models of blended and online courses
2.   Do it yourself education
3.   Big data and analytics
4.   E-textbooks
E-textbooks




http://www.apple.com/education/ibooks-textbooks/
Trends for the Future
1.   New models of blended and online courses
2.   Do it yourself education
3.   Big data and analytics
4.   E-textbooks
5.   Technology on the horizon
Technology on the Horizon
One year or less…
• Mobile applications
• Tablet computing
Two to three years…
• Game-based learning
• Learning analytics
Four to five years…
• Gesture-based computing
• Internet of things
                  http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/HR2012.pdf
Guess what she wants for her birthday?
iPad Has Faster Adoption than DVD
                 • Excellent portability and
                   battery life
                 • A bigger canvas
                 • Ideate app
                 • Capturing ideas
                 • An awesome tool for
                   developing and
                   implementing ideas
Math That Moves: Schools Embrace the iPad
Trends for the Future
1.   New models of blended and online courses
2.   Do it yourself education
3.   Big data and analytics
4.   E-textbooks
5.   Technology on the horizon…
“By…establishing new criteria for success, we
are choosing not to participate in a race that
has already been lost.”

Michael Crow, President of Arizona State University
WHAT IF STEVE JOBS HAD BEEN AN
          EDUCATOR?
Educational Positioning System
Educational Positioning System
•   Map-in starting point and destination
•   Routes to completion
•   ROI – ROV
•   Time to destination – progress
•   Fuel for the journey
•   Travel time to “norm” for the destination
•   Highway for optimizing student success
Mike Mathews
Grade Level
                  Career Desire
                 Funding Options
                   ACT Score
                  MAP Results




                                   Scroll FLEX-PC
Scroll FLEX-PC
LMS versus EPS: Comparison of Characteristics
               LMS                                EPS
• Owned by institution            • Owned by student
• Poor persistence of complete    • Permanent data repository in
  data                              cloud
• Robust enterprise application   • Collection of portable apps
  requires Big Iron servers         allowing access to cloud data
• Data not transferred across     • Data accessible across institutions
  institutions
                                  • Like a GPS, user is central to
• No user-centric operating         experience
  environment
Facilitating Navigation with the Proper
                  Tools




                   59
“If educational completion is one of the most prized
and valuable destinies for every American
student, surely we need to innovate and market a
vision that leverages the technologies and analytical
tools that will completely eradicate the
educational risks of taking wrong-turns, running
out of academic gas, miscalculating the
distance, under estimating the costs, and the
inability to have a ‘norm’ to compare a personalized
educational journey against.”
                             Michael Mathews
The future is…..
Questions?




ASIA-PAC TEACHING AND LEARNING CONFERENCE
Thank You!
Contact information: lindalbaer@yahoo.com

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Dr. Linda Baer - D2L Keynote Asia-Pac Conference - 9/15/12

  • 1. As the Future Catches You Dr. Linda Baer
  • 2. We are educating for careers that have not been created, using technology not yet invented to solve problems that haven’t been discovered. “Shift Happens” UTube
  • 3. We have a symbiotic relationship with our community… and our community takes our story to the world. University of Tasmania
  • 4. Ever wanted to run away and join the circus (with your parents’ permission)
  • 5. Ordinary Kids Doing Extraordinary Things The Flying Fruit Fly Circus School is a year 3-10 state government school working in a symbolic relationship with the Flying Fruit Fly Circus located in Albury Wodonga on the New South Wales-Victorian border . The circus was established in 1979 and the school became its educational arm in 1987.
  • 6. Mapping Australian Higher Education • Rapid growth over past 40 years – 1970s 3%, 2011 25%; 2025 40% – 336,000 international students • Increase degree attainment • Knowledge economy make higher education vital to Australia’s prosperity • Student survey data – AUSSE/NSSE – Satisfaction with teaching – Less student engagement • Teaching and research balance • Demand-driven funding and skill shortages • Universities enjoy high levels of public confidence – 80% in 2010 Mapping Australian Higher Education, Andrew Norton, January 2012
  • 7. "Higher Education at the Crossroads” Emerging Policy Issues • Possible move from the "one size fits all" model for funding and offerings – greater degree of specialization – differential HECs/HELP loans between institutions – greater fee "flexibility" – "teaching only" institutions • Research funding models, esp. research collaboration with industry • Relative roles of the Commonwealth and states-- more state funding • Need to improve linkages with predicted needs of industry • Employers indicated persistent difficulties in finding appropriate staff • Degree of cross-over between higher education and VET - currently quite small Higher Education in Australia: Structure, Policy & Debate, Jim Breen, Monash University December 2002 Mapping Australian Higher Education, Andrew Norton, January 2012
  • 8. Deakin University wins the 2011 National Health Fusion Team Challenge An team of Deakin students have won the National Health Fusion Team Challenge, a national extracurricular competition between mixed Interprofessional teams of health students nearing the end of their studies. Deakin University medical researchers find potential new treatment for bipolar depression Deakin University medical researchers have found that an antioxidant, N-acetylcysteine (NAC), is an effective treatment for bipolar depression. World leaders to debate multiculturalism, citizenship and identity at social inclusion forum Deakin University, under the auspices of the UN Alliance of Civilisations (UNAOC), will bring the UN Forum on Social Inclusion to Australia for the first time on 7 October at Melbourne Town Hall. US, Aussie and Chinese experts gather for first time to debate rise of China Deakin University's experts on China and Asia, and for the first time other leading experts from China and the US will aim to create a global and regional buzz around China's rising role in the region at the 2011 Fulbright Symposium. Re-inventing the wheel Carbon Revolution (CFusion), a Victorian company that, in partnership with Deakin University, produced the world's first one piece carbon fibre wheel, has been showcased at a Clean Technology Showcase in Canberra, an event launched by the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard and Innovation Minister Senator Kim Carr. Deakin Professor works with UN to put culture on the global economic agenda Deakin Professor part of forum seeking input on the development of an index to measure the impact cultural diversity has on a country's economy and human development.
  • 9. University of Singapore Reform • Established an International Academic Advisory Panel, which aimed to help the government in establishing a world-class higher education system (Ministry of Education [MOE], Singapore 2001). • Established its third university, the Singapore Management University (SMU), in August 2000. This privately-owned institution was formed in collaboration with the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, which thus implies a more diversified governance and funding mechanism adopted by the government. • Universities link up their missions with their internal structures regarding talent management, organizational processes and resource allocation
  • 10. Singapore Initiatives • Promoting transnational higher education in the joint-degree program arranged between the local universities and their overseas partners. • Policy to support transnational higher education, the Singapore government also offers a comprehensive package of financial-aid to international students through several public channels • Recent immigration policies that aim to attract talented and skilled individuals to live and work in Singapore, in addition, have also facilitated the development of its transnational education industry. The Quest for Regional Hub of Education: Searching for New Governance and Regulatory Regimes in Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia by Ka Ho Mok 2009
  • 12. University of Tasmania • What is the Tasmanian Moment? • UTAS makes far-reaching educational, cultural and economic contributions to Tasmania and the world. While maintaining a strong and distinctive Tasmanian identity, programs and research are international in scope, vision and standards. The UTAS family includes around 50,000 graduates who are now scattered across the globe. • UTAS is connected and contemporary, creating life-changing, life- shaping experiences that provide the foundation on which to build careers and lives for our students.
  • 13. United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 http://bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm
  • 14. Four Challenges for the Next Decade Completion challenge Capacity challenge • Organizational capacity  Knowledge & skills gap • Talent and skills  Low completion rates • Collaboration  Performance breakthroughs • Culture Funding challenge Innovation challenge  State budget cuts  “Islands of innovation”  College debt  Traditional models  New business models for sustainability  Immunity to change 14
  • 16. Knowledge & Skill Gap • Community college students are in trouble • Need better alignment to support college readiness • About 65% of all community college students nationwide need some form of remedial education • Less than one quarter of the students go on to earn any degree or certificate in eight years • Need to provide ways for adults in the workforce to return to college -- 22% attended college but didn’t complete
  • 17. Completion Rates Remain Roughly Consistent Graduation rates at 150% of time 70 2-yr colleges 4-yr colleges 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Cohort year Source: New York Times; NCES 17
  • 18. Completion Challenge Source: Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics. OECD, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Note: Low income 18 defined as 185% of poverty line, consistent with K-12 free and reduced lunch threshold
  • 19. The Great Paradox Need for Breakthroughs in Performance Rising Deeper expectations Higher More learning enrollments completions outcomes Constrained Limited seat Declining resources Budget cuts family capacity ability to pay Source: 2011 Community Colleges and the Economy, AACC/Campus Computing Project, April 2011; Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive, Field dates: 19
  • 21. Costs Increases Source: New York Times; NCES 21
  • 22. College Debt The total U.S. student loan debt is now up to $870 billion, which is more than the national auto loan debt or credit cards debt, according to an article from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Americans owe $693 billion in credit card debt and $730 billion in auto loans
  • 23. NEED FOR SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODELS • Metrics for the 21st Century • Productivity • Access, affordability and quality • For-profits models for affordability
  • 25. Organizational Capacity • Leadership for a New Age • Teaching, Learning and Student Success • Teams, Collaboratives and Crossing Boundaries • Professional Development • Sustainability • Culture – Persistent Restlessness for Improvement
  • 27. Our duty is to wholly reinvent ourselves. We are American’s future--- intellectually, socially, culturally.” Gordon Gee, President of Ohio State University
  • 28. Innovation Challenge • Lack business models that bring solutions to scale • Resistance to change • Slow, decentralized decision cycles • Entrenched interests • Suspicion of for-profit players • Accreditation systems
  • 29. Scaling Innovation 2007 Education market Number of Actual companies companies Projected distribution 160 140 120 Only 2 of 67 orgs funded 100 by US Department of 80 Education innovation 60 grants scaled/are still operational 40 20 0 1 5 20 100 400 Revenue US$ Millions Source: McKinsey Analysis of EMR 2007 K-12 report and Berkerey Noyes 2007 investment analysis (unpublished))
  • 30.
  • 31. TRENDS FOR THE FUTURE
  • 32. Trends for the Future 1. New models of blended and online courses
  • 34. Trends for the Future 1. New models of blended and online courses 2. Do it yourself education
  • 35. Do It Yourself University
  • 36. Khan Academy • Small bursts of knowledge • Taking a mastery-based approach to learning • Creating collaborative learning using focused coaching by the teacher • Dashboard that provides real-time data on student performance to individual students as well as their teachers, mentors or parents • Adaptive exercise software platform http://www.khanacademy.org/
  • 37. 'Badges' Earned Online Pose Challenge to Traditional College Diplomas Photo illustration by Bob McGrath for The Chronicle
  • 39. Trends for the Future 1. New models of blended and online courses 2. Do it yourself education 3. Big data and analytics
  • 40. ANALYTICS IS THE “UNIVERSAL DECODER” FOR EDUCATIONAL REFORM
  • 41. Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation, Competition, and Productivity • Unlock significant value by making data more transparent and useable • Transactional data more accurate and detailed • Segmentation of customers to tailor products and services • Improves decision making • Improves development of next generation products and services http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/MGI/Research/Technology_and_Innovation/Big_data_The_next_frontier_for_innovation
  • 42.
  • 44. D2L Analytics Solutions Forecasting, Risk Analytics Advanced Data Reporting Optimization Visualization Analytics Analytics
  • 45. Trends for the Future 1. New models of blended and online courses 2. Do it yourself education 3. Big data and analytics 4. E-textbooks
  • 47. Trends for the Future 1. New models of blended and online courses 2. Do it yourself education 3. Big data and analytics 4. E-textbooks 5. Technology on the horizon
  • 48. Technology on the Horizon One year or less… • Mobile applications • Tablet computing Two to three years… • Game-based learning • Learning analytics Four to five years… • Gesture-based computing • Internet of things http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/HR2012.pdf
  • 49. Guess what she wants for her birthday?
  • 50. iPad Has Faster Adoption than DVD • Excellent portability and battery life • A bigger canvas • Ideate app • Capturing ideas • An awesome tool for developing and implementing ideas
  • 51. Math That Moves: Schools Embrace the iPad
  • 52. Trends for the Future 1. New models of blended and online courses 2. Do it yourself education 3. Big data and analytics 4. E-textbooks 5. Technology on the horizon…
  • 53. “By…establishing new criteria for success, we are choosing not to participate in a race that has already been lost.” Michael Crow, President of Arizona State University
  • 54. WHAT IF STEVE JOBS HAD BEEN AN EDUCATOR?
  • 56. Educational Positioning System • Map-in starting point and destination • Routes to completion • ROI – ROV • Time to destination – progress • Fuel for the journey • Travel time to “norm” for the destination • Highway for optimizing student success Mike Mathews
  • 57. Grade Level Career Desire Funding Options ACT Score MAP Results Scroll FLEX-PC Scroll FLEX-PC
  • 58. LMS versus EPS: Comparison of Characteristics LMS EPS • Owned by institution • Owned by student • Poor persistence of complete • Permanent data repository in data cloud • Robust enterprise application • Collection of portable apps requires Big Iron servers allowing access to cloud data • Data not transferred across • Data accessible across institutions institutions • Like a GPS, user is central to • No user-centric operating experience environment
  • 59. Facilitating Navigation with the Proper Tools 59
  • 60. “If educational completion is one of the most prized and valuable destinies for every American student, surely we need to innovate and market a vision that leverages the technologies and analytical tools that will completely eradicate the educational risks of taking wrong-turns, running out of academic gas, miscalculating the distance, under estimating the costs, and the inability to have a ‘norm’ to compare a personalized educational journey against.” Michael Mathews
  • 62. Questions? ASIA-PAC TEACHING AND LEARNING CONFERENCE
  • 63. Thank You! Contact information: lindalbaer@yahoo.com

Editor's Notes

  1. ~40% AA+; 57% Baccalaureate
  2. Sold 3 million units in the first 80 daysPast the one million units the iPhone sold in its first quarterEstimated sales of more than $9 billion in the U.S. next year