Predictive Markets turns 10 years old!

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February 2015
10 Things We’ve Learned About Concept Screening
Predictive Markets turns 10 Years Old

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Concept Screening with Predictive Markets is 10 Years Old!
Big, old and wise – Predictive Markets turned 10 years old in February of
2015! From forecasting the future of fuel to backing Bollywood blockbusters,
from predicting the coolest summer drinks to the hottest German singers, from
Xmas toys to X-rated toys, how to name, claim and find fame – we’ve learnt a lot
from testing over 30,000 concepts and 15 million virtual share deals.
Predictive Markets is BrainJuicer’s ground-breaking, award-winning idea
screening solution – where the crowd picks winners by buying and selling shares
in ideas.
Here are 10 things we didn’t know 10 years ago… but prove that when it comes
to screening ideas for predicting success in market, Predictive Markets is a truly
discriminating, effective way to screen for and spot breakthrough winners.

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Focus and aim for 25
words, not the traditional
80+. Length makes people
linger with uncertainty
rather than reassuring
them.
No. 10: Less is more –

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Include intuitive
visuals (even if you
don’t have a pack
shot) rather than
explaining in detail.
You won’t have the
luxury of the latter
in market.
No. 9: Show, don’t tell –

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There’s no need to include an
insight statement introduction
to your concept - it doesn’t
help. Of course your concepts
should be insightful though. If
it helps you, start your
concept writing with the
insight at the top, but remove
it before testing.
No. 8: Insight not insight statements –

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Testing unbranded concepts
isn’t an automatic
disadvantage, on average
they score virtually the
same as branded ones. Get
the brand right and it can
propel your idea up to
5-Star success but an
inappropriate brand can
lose you points.
No. 7: Brand can help or hinder –

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Predictive Markets isn’t
just fun, fast and easy,
it’s accurate. Our most
recent validation (on
new UK beer and cider
launches) saw another
strong correlation with
market shares: +0.82.
No. 6: The crowd truly is wise –

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Even in a specialist healthcare
category the PMs crowd has predicted
the same winners as standard
approaches with physicians - at just
10% of the cost!
No. 5: You can do more with a crowd -

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It's now possible to tap into the
“Wisdom of Crowds” overnight with PM-AM.
No. 4: And if you are in a hurry, don't worry -

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Using the share dealing metaphor we
see much lower variability in scores
between countries and categories
than with traditional concept
screening.
No. 3: Projection aids stability -

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The projection sharing
metaphor also boosts
discrimination – within
projects we see much
greater spread of results
than traditional screening,
pulling apart the “wheat
from the chaff” for easier,
quicker decision making. It
can spot polarizers which
can be the sign a
breakthrough idea.
No. 2: Projection boosts discrimination

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While purchase intention only
makes sense for things you could
imagine buying yourself, the share
dealing metaphor can be applied to
individual variables through to
holistic, less tangible concepts
which aren’t for sale. Not just NPD
ideas but packs, names, brands,
claims, celebrities, singers,
politicians, movies…and intimate
products which people are less likely
to admit buying!
No. 1!!!!!!! You can test just about anything –

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Turning human understanding
into business advantage
Contact us:
enquiries@brainjuicer.com
Visit us online at:
www.brainjuicer.com