An Update on UK XMAS Ads: 'Tis the Season for Brand Growth
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The document discusses several UK Christmas advertising campaigns from 2016. It provides details on: 1) An analysis of several campaigns using a tool called BrainJuicer which measures audience emotional responses and predicts potential for sharing and business growth. Highly emotional campaigns that resolve negative feelings tended to perform best. 2) Summaries of individual campaigns for brands like Sainsbury's, Aldi, and Waitrose. These summaries include the emotional journeys the ads took viewers on and whether negatives were resolved by the end. 3) Overall, ads that elicited negative feelings like fear or sadness but then provided resolution through a happy ending tended to score highest on BrainJuicer's system and have the best predicted performance
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An Update on UK XMAS Ads: 'Tis the Season for Brand Growth
- 1. 2016 UK Christmas Advertising: Winners and Losers David Whitelam & Charlotte Kiddle| http://feelmore.brainjuicer.com/uk/xmas16
- 2. ©BrainJuicer® 2 Identifying the most effective approach to large business effects with the IPA’s DataMINE Who is the IPA? The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising Recognised as the world’s most influential professional body for practitioners in advertising and marketing communications, providing thought leadership, best practice and continuous professional development. What is DataMINE? A database that holds campaign case studies of award winners from Effectiveness Week, allowing the cases to be analyzed and interrogated for best practices.
- 3. ©BrainJuicer® 3 Identifying the most effective approach to large business effects with the IPA’s DataMINE % Reporting very large profit gains, Campaigns lasting 3+ years 43% 23% Rational Emotional 2.67 1.67 Lower Higher No. of very large business effects generated BrainJuicer, JAR March 2012 Business Effects courtesy of IPA Declared Campaign Strategy Actual Emotional Response The Long and Short of It Binet & Field, Thinkbox, 2013 Data shows that highly emotional campaigns generate high levels of business effect. After all: “Feel Nothing, Do Nothing. Feel More, Buy More”.
- 4. ©BrainJuicer® 4 15 35 25 5 5 5 5 1.70 5 Intensity Score measured on a scale from 0 to +3 Constructing a model to predict share growth Prediction of share growth -- - -- -- -- - ++ + BrainJuicer measures emotion using the seven universal emotions based on Paul Ekman’s research as well as neutrality, and the intensity of each emotion is translated into a score that predicts share growth. The higher the star rating, the higher the share growth
- 5. ©BrainJuicer® 5 68 73 78 82 NO GROWTH without huge ESOV 28% Modest growth with high ESOV 33% Good growth with high ESOV 26% Strong growth with high ESOV 9% EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH with high ESOV 4% AllAdsGlobalNorm Predicted Share Growth for 10% points of Excess Share Of Voice Emotion-into -Action™ Score ShareGainPrediction 10ESOVpointsnotenoughforsharegain|10ESOVpointswilldrivesharegain +0%points +0.5%points +1%points +2%points +3%points Predicted share gain [assuming a 10% excess share of voice] Average
- 6. ©BrainJuicer® 6 Emotional Dynamism %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Emotional Dynamism: Sum of all changes in emotion across every second of the video (excluding neutrality gains) Sharing and Click Potential: emotional dynamism is translated into a score for sharing and click potential Total Dynamism 335 Dynamism norm (90 secs) 197
- 7. John Lewis Christmas Campaigns (2012-2015)
- 8. ©BrainJuicer® 8 John Lewis Christmas | IPA Grand Prix Winner Man on the Moon (2015) Bear and the Hare (2013)The Journey (2012) Monty the Penguin (2014) £8 profit generated per £1 spent across campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N8axp9nHNU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqWig2WARb0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DPDIkuU_cY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuz2ILq4UeA
- 9. ©BrainJuicer® 9 Emotional advertising contributes to exceptional share growth ShareGrowth From IPA Paper The Gift that Keeps on Giving: John Lewis Christmas Advertising 2012-2015, adam&eveDDB From 2012- 2016, John Lewis’s department store sales grew by 5 ½ percentage points
- 10. ©BrainJuicer® 10 2012-2015 Share growth predictions for each ad versus actual growth 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 65 70 75 80 85 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 65 70 75 80 85 % annual point share growth % annual point share growth Our Modelled Prediction Actual Emotion-into-Action Emotion-into-Action Model assumes 10 ESOV points. Actual share of voice not available but ‘roughly equivalent for each ad in campaign’, Les Binet. Correlation: 0.85
- 11. ©BrainJuicer® 11 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise The emotional narrative | Monty The Penguin Start 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 100s 110s 120s 130s The boy has a pet penguin! Cute little boy and his best friend (penguin) Reminds me of my childhood It's heart warming I like the music Because the penguin is lonely The penguin recognising human affection Sharing fun in the snow Penguin wants a partner A mate for the penguin Its so lovely what the boy has done. The happiness and warm glow lasts throughout the adThis 5-Star ad resolves a large amount of sadness, successfully leaving viewers happy at the end which is difficult to do.
- 12. ©BrainJuicer® 12 Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Monty the Penguin vs Man on the Moon: a different tone Start 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 100s 110s 120s 130s Rated a 5-Star ad, Monty the Penguin told a story of happiness to sadness and back to happiness, resulting in a successful resolution. Rated only a 2-Star ad, Man on the Moon was less successful due to the amount of sadness left unresolved.
- 13. 2016 UK XMAS Ad Performance and Learnings http://feelmore.brainjuicer.com/uk/xmas16
- 14. ©BrainJuicer® 14 68 73 78 82 UKNorm71 1-Star Christmas Ads 2016 Emotion-into -Action™ Score BrainJuicerAdTestingEfficiency SpenddrivessharegainSpendinsufficienttoholdshare Spend maintains share* NO GROWTH without huge ESOV 28% Modest growth with high ESOV 33% Good growth with high ESOV 26% Strong growth with high ESOV 9% EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH with high ESOV 4%
- 15. ©BrainJuicer® 15 68 73 78 82 UKNorm71 2-Star Christmas Ads 2016 Emotion-into -Action™ Score BrainJuicerAdTestingEfficiency SpenddrivessharegainSpendinsufficienttoholdshare Spend maintains share* NO GROWTH without huge ESOV 28% Modest growth with high ESOV 33% Good growth with high ESOV 26% Strong growth with high ESOV 9% EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH with high ESOV 4%
- 16. ©BrainJuicer® 16 68 73 78 82 UKNorm71 3-Star Christmas Ads 2016 Emotion-into -Action™ Score BrainJuicerAdTestingEfficiency SpenddrivessharegainSpendinsufficienttoholdshare Spend maintains share* NO GROWTH without huge ESOV 28% Modest growth with high ESOV 33% Good growth with high ESOV 26% Strong growth with high ESOV 9% EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH with high ESOV 4%
- 17. ©BrainJuicer® 17 68 73 78 82 UKNorm71 4-Star Christmas Ads 2016 Emotion-into -Action™ Score BrainJuicerAdTestingEfficiency SpenddrivessharegainSpendinsufficienttoholdshare Spend maintains share* NO GROWTH without huge ESOV 28% Modest growth with high ESOV 33% Good growth with high ESOV 26% Strong growth with high ESOV 9% EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH with high ESOV 4%
- 18. ©BrainJuicer® 18 68 73 78 82 UKNorm71 The Christmas Five Emotion-into -Action™ Score NO GROWTH without huge ESOV 28% Modest growth with high ESOV 33% Good growth with high ESOV 26% Strong growth with high ESOV 9% EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH with high ESOV 4% BrainJuicerAdTestingEfficiency SpenddrivessharegainSpendinsufficienttoholdshare Spend maintains share* The Greatest Gift Home for Christmas Amazing Christmas Carrot Mrs Claus Buster the Boxer
- 19. ©BrainJuicer® 19 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Start2 4 6 8101214161820222426283032343638404244464850525456586062646668707274767880828486889092949698100102104106108110112114116118120122124126128130132134136138140142144146148150152154156158160162164166168170172174176178180182184186188190192194196198 Sainsbury: The Greatest Gift |200 seconds Happy and christmassy already Graphics and quality of ad Comical Tune is catchy Amusing family turmoil Relatable Feel good feeling I'm getting excited Thought it was a toy shop ad Accurate lyrics It reminds me of all the things that need doing Sums up Christmas, Christmas is for family We don't realise just how being there is important It is so nice that the mans children have made a gingerbread man of him Problem solved! If only we could do that Happy ending! Love the image of families together Xmas is about family Heart-warming that Sainsbury's is sponsoring St Ormond Street Hospital https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bq5SGSCZe4E The positives: the music, Christmas feelings, etc.
- 20. ©BrainJuicer® 20 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Start2 4 6 8101214161820222426283032343638404244464850525456586062646668707274767880828486889092949698100102104106108110112114116118120122124126128130132134136138140142144146148150152154156158160162164166168170172174176178180182184186188190192194196198 Sainsbury: The Greatest Gift |200 seconds Annoying to see this advert a million times before christmas On a train Bored Very boring Just plain bored now The queue Patronising to old people What is all this about? Anxious Get to the point ! I feel extremely guilty of how I spend my time and the long hours I work away from my family. Hideous change in key on the song Now its getting ridiculous Far too longhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bq5SGSCZe4E The negatives: too long, boring, and no resolution of the negatives at the end
- 21. ©BrainJuicer® 21 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Aldi: Amazing Christmas Carrot|60 seconds Xmas Cute carrot The joy on the carrot’s face! Interested & curious Because i like the poem and christmas Advert makes you smile Because it indicates that santa is about to arrive down the chimney Ouch. That's gotta hurt! Amused Funny The carrot's voice was sweet and amusing Shows that Aldi sells champagne Carrot reached its destination I'm enjoying the 'story' of the carrot Carrot survives I like the brand Aldi It's for Aldi That video appears to show a happy ending Happy all round Feel sorry for carrot Will the carrot end up in the dinner? Will the carrot make it? Scared for the carrot Sad the carrot has met a sad end https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCZrWFrRgbQ This 3-star ad takes viewers through a dramatic adventure of Kevin the Carrot but ends on a happy note.
- 22. ©BrainJuicer® 22 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Start 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 Waitrose: Home for Christmas|90 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtKYdG9r0Pk In this 4-Star ad, there are negative feelings but resolution of the negativity at the end leaves viewers with high levels of happiness.
- 23. ©BrainJuicer® 23 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Start 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 Waitrose: Home for Christmas|90 seconds Looks quaint Love robins A clear sign of Christmas Ordinary scene and out popped a robin The robin appeared in a dark landscape Hmmm a mince pie Held attention Lovely scenery Uplifting Safe He escaped the dangers Love wildlife Relief Survival Kindness left in the world He's ok again ! Robin is not dead !!!! Yayyyyy He's fine! Success Ohh, a happy ending,beautiful Where'd the other one come from Two birds reunited. Heartwamed Christmas! Happy for the girl, bird, and the family Looks cold and lonely Girl looks worried Sad for the boy Poor little thing, feel empathy Cold Little robin getting snowed on I hope it doesn't get killed Scared robin is going to get eaten No! Please don't hurt the robin Robin injured Worried for the robin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtKYdG9r0Pk Spirit of connection is delivered through this simple story of the robin.
- 24. ©BrainJuicer® 24 Waitrose: Home for Christmas|90 seconds Emotional Dynamism %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise Emotional Dynamism: Sum of all changes in emotion across every second of the video (excluding neutrality gains) Sharing Potential: Based on Emotional Dynamism, emotional intensity and happiness vs norm Total Dynamism 335 Dynamism norm (90 secs) 197 Due to its high amount of dynamism, Home for Christmas receives a 5 out of 5 for Share Potential
- 25. ©BrainJuicer® 25 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise John Lewis: Buster the Boxer|120 seconds Love dogs How cute! I remember that christmas eve feeling Reminds me of mychildren I feel nostalgic Fox appears Like the song What will happen Foxes are lovely I think its cute the animals bouncing and wonder if they do that on my trampoline at night Foxes bouncing - big smiles Enjoying the music! Whoaaaa Lovely to see something different. Something I didn't expect Badger joining in - friendship, brilliant Nice to see different animals together Love the animals Can't imagine someone letting their child jump on their bed to this extent The man works hard in the cold Done that to my finger too It's not very plausible Poor buster not being able to join in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr6lr_VRsEo Feeling happy and content Dog's emotive face Poor dog ... He wants a go Yay buster! Fantastic ad I love seeing kids happy and trampolines do just that!! As the dog dashes past Beaten to it by the dog - having a great time at last Cute dog finally had a chance to play It's not very plausible Poor dog Sad for the dog watching from inside All having a lovely time With large amounts of positive emotion due to the animals bouncing on the trampoline, the music and the cinematic approach, JL achieves a 4-Star status with Buster.
- 26. ©BrainJuicer® 26 %ofrespondents Contempt Disgust Anger Fear Sadness Neutral Happiness Surprise M&S: Mrs. Claus| 180 seconds The helicopter and her clothes Not expecting this at all I'm glad that she's going to help him Great icy scenery and use of helicopter and snowmobile Heart welling with joy. Rudolph is a helicopter Brings a tear to ones eyes Heartwarming Seeing siblings showing so much love It feels very natural – they really like each other Lots of love around Christmas Warm and fuzzy inside Mission accomplished! Feel sorry for boy Little boy thinks his wish will not happen. Gushy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5QPXhStb5I Beautiful scenery and nice music Happy festive scene Why has she not shown the letter Affection between the two Funny comment with Australia Cute letter from a little boy Reminiscent of my childhood Typical brother sister relationship. Cute boy A bit of a different style - a glamorous Mrs Claus Sister upset her best shoes ruined As the highest rated ad for UK XMAS Ads, Mrs. Claus does a wonderful job of storytelling as it puts a modern twist on the traditional Christmas story that introduces sadness but successfully resolves it, keeping viewers highly engaged.
- 27. ©BrainJuicer® 27 Predicted versus Actual Sharing Sharing Prediction YouTube Views Facebook Shares Buster the Boxer 19m 2.7% shares per view Mrs. Claus 6.7m 1.6% shares per view SharingPotential Actual Sharing rate Our sharing prediction model holds up well from previous Super Bowls and other viral data Buster the Boxer does better than Mrs. Claus in YouTube views and Facebook sharing due to the judgement of expectation that accompanies the release of the John Lewis offering instead of judgements based on the actual ad. They’ve created a momentum by delivering 5 years of XMAS ads.
- 28. ©BrainJuicer® 28 The Five Learnings of Christmas 2016 is another emotional playing field - albeit with a different tone from 2015 1 Storytelling drives dynamism and engagement Longer is not necessarily better John Lewis has a challenger this year in M&S, but JL’s long-term strategy pays dividends Using distinctive assets / tone creates annual anticipation helping dominate social media and sharing 2 4 5 3
- 29. Be sure to watch the top 10 UK XMAS Ads on FeelMore50™ http://feelmore.brainjuicer.com/uk/xmas16 requests@brainjuicer.com
Notes de l'éditeur
- Good afternoon everybody. Welcome to December and welcome to BrainJuicer’s latest webinar looking at the performance of 27 of the UK Christmas ads of 2016. My name is David Whitelam and I'm head of new client development at BJ. I will be presenting this webinar with my colleague Charlotte Kiddle, Deputy MD of BrainJuicer UK. For those of you who’ve joined us before you’ll know our webinars have the facility for you to ask questions by typing into the little box on the right hand side. So please feel free to tap away and we'll have a look at any questions you might have and address them in a short Q&A session in about 30 minutes’ time. I should also let you know that a recording of this session is being taken as I speak and the link will be made available to all attendees afterwards.
- AtBJ We have constructed a model to predict share growth based on the emotional response that people have to to campaigns. And this is the basis on which we are judging the Christmas ads you’ll see in a minute. We do it by asking a key question. How does this advert make you feel? To answer, consumers Use the pictorial scale showing 8 faces. Developed on the back of the work of the psychologist and anthropologist Paul Ekman who has shown that emotions are innate to humankind,rather than being learned. His work has deduced that there are 7 basic emotions that, no matter where we are from and what your background, upbringing, creed or colour we all express them in the same way facially. These emotions are Contempt…..We also feature neutrality (important if there is no “feeling”) We take the profile of the proportion of those feeling each emotion and the intensity which theyare felt and we translate into a one number score that helps us to predict share growth. We do this by giving appropriate weights to each emotion depending how useful they are in eliciting action. Surpriuse and happines are particularly useful at predicting advertising success and are given positive weights. Negative weights are assigned to the other emotions, not least neutrality. The one number score translates to a star score, from 1star (a low level of emotional response) up to a very rare 5 star ad which is extremely engaging.
- Here is the star chart. It shows that for every ten points of Excess Share of Voice what your share growth is likely to be ESOV is effectively how much you are advertising compared to the competition based on your market share. If share of market (imagine 20%) your share of voice is 30% then ESOV is 10%. So our chart assumes for a 10% ESOV what will your market share growth figure be. This varies from no growth for1 star ads, up. Binet and Field have shown average of campaigns is 0.5% growth for 10% points of Excess Share of voice which equates to a 2 star in terms of emotional engagement
- Before we review 2016 results, just a quick case study using the Binet andFIeld findings from the IPA database. People talk a lot about the JL campaign and while JL might no longer alone in their style of ad, the good news is that there’s been lots of work done over the past few years on how effective the ads have been. It may seem purely emotional advertising, but underpinned by critical insight, albeit not a persuasion-based message. Creative Strategy: Thoughtful Gifting
- Over a period of time, emotional campaigns generate share growth. Share growth better than ROI as long term encouraging. Use common assets to build on each other (similar treatments in colour hues, music signalling JL). Emotional ads take 6 months to see the benefit of, but use model to show how to spend,
- Four campaigns tested over the years relative to IPA paper share growth reported. COmparison with actual v modelled is strong. The model based on emotional engagement explains the reality of market share growth really well. R squared .72 (good explanatory power)
- The star of the campaign to date has been Monty the penguin: and we can see the emotional journey from our research by looking at how happiness (in light green) soars in first few seconds until the realisation in the viewer that penguin is lonely. THis sadness resolved. Rare shape. But common in effective adverts- tension and successful resolution. how did it do- 5* in our testing.
- 2015 saw a different tone as the Manonthe Moon advert Age UK Commentators suggested “emotional” advertising was too samey and pulling on heartstrings can’t last. But emotional advertising is not necessarily related to heartstrings, or the tear ducts it could be related to the chucklemuscle. It is simply advertising that moves the viewer. It can be sad, but it can be funny, uplifting, make you angry, make you fearful. So without further ado, I’m going to handover to Charlotte who will reveal how the ads from 2016 have performed
- We’ve historically seen a strong link between Emotional dynamism and actual sharing rates – based on work done on the Superbowl campaigns of the last few years (also viewable in our Feelmore site). Looking at the sharing prediction for the two leading 2016 ads, there’s not much to choose between them, though the length of the M&S adverts could allow it to be more dynamic. Nevertheless John Lewis have overdelivered in the YouTube views and Facebook Shares data, as well as from other statistics relating to social media mentions. The difference is more to do with the juggernaut of expectation that accompanies the release of the JL offering, as much as the continued appeal of the storytelling and execution and data points towards people wanting to show they are one of the first to have seen the new ad. Bravo to John Lewis for creating this momentum and delivering on it for the fifth year in a row.
- So, to wrap up, emotion is proven to deliver longterm business effects and is here to stay. It doesn’t have to be melancholy or sentimentality that touches people and we’ve seen more joy and humour this year (which, given how 2016 seems to be panning out, is probably no coincidence and a blessed relief). 2 We’ve seen epic productions, increasing use of Big Budget Directors, special filmscores, and, inevitably some engaging stories – Waitrose being the most dynamic. 3 We’ve also seen 3 minute adverts, but longer isn’t better and needs engagement and dynamism to maintain interest. 4 M&S’ execution is a true blockbuster and scores comparably to JL – it will be interesting to see how they follow it up next year; we know that JL’s longterm strategy helps snowball interest 5 How do they do this? They use the same hues, musical style (though no piano this year) and insight to maintain the story and this has helped them dominate sharing and social media metrics