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From Vulnerability assessments to adaptation -Martin Konig
1. Climate Forum East: adaptation workshop
Tbilissi, March 26th-28th 2014
adaptation (appraisal)
1
Martin König
Environment Agency Austria
Department for Environmental Impact Assessment and Climate Change
From vulnerability assessments to
2. EU guidelines on the adaptation process
EU(COM) (2013)
CVA
NAS
prepare
implementation
3. Some key questions for the CVA/NAS process
1. Which sectors/regions are most vulnerable?
2. Which parts of economy are most sensitive?
3. Which ecosystems might collapse/have low resilience under changing
climate regimes?
4. Which meteorological extreme events (have) cause(d) major
damages/losses? How is their trend/projection?
5. Which gradual shifts do we have to adapt to?
6. Are there any opportunities due to climate change we should make use of?
7. What is the range of uncertainty we have to face?
-----------
1. Which conflicts among stakeholders/sectoral interests are already visible?
2. Which mainstreaming potential with sectoral policies can already be
detected?
3. How can the suggested adaptation measures be prioritized?
4. Some core demands in the realms of
CCA
4
How much is Climate Change for our economy (in monetary
terms)?
How much public investment is needed for adaptation?
What about the private adaptation potential to relief public
budgets?
What are the threats of maladaptation?
In terms of trade offs with mitigation targets
In terms of trade offs with environmental/sustainability targets
In terms of path dependencies
In terms of competition (‘only the strong survive’ – oligopolistic
structures) and harming others
5. Some adaptation starters
5
Impact chains:
1. Urban heat waves
2. Drought in agriculture -> forest fires
3. Slope instability, mass movements
4. floods
Mostly affected:
1. Urban (elderly) population, construction and building
2. Farmers, foresters
3. Infrastructures (housing, energy, transport)
4. Infrastructures and agricultural yields, (ecosystems)
6. Urban heat waves
6
Potable
water
supply
Afforestration
around cities
blue areas
and water
vapouring
Shading &
green roofs
Active
cooling
(A/C)
Passive
cooling
green areas
Increase
albedo
Heat alert
system/early
warning
Costs?
Responsibilities?
Private/public capacities?
Synergies?
Trade-Offs?
Mainstreaming into pertinent
Policy domains – where and when?
8. Mass movements -> infrastructure
8
Landslide,
mudflows,
avalanche
risk maps
Technical
measures
(nets,
fences,...)
Slope drainage
Early
warning/heavy
precipitation
Risk zoning,
smart
planning
Costs?
Responsibilities?
Private/public capacities?
Synergies?
Trade-Offs?
Protection
forest
management
Mainstreaming into pertinent
Policy domains – where and when?
9. Torrential precipitation, erosion and
flooding
9
Decrease
exposure of
infrastructure
Risk transfer
mechanism
Hail nets for
wine and
orchards
Mulching to
increase
infiltration
Increase
retension
areas
Slope-parallel
ploughing
Reduce
sealing
Low tillage
Mainstreaming into pertinent
Policy domains – where and when?
Costs?
Responsibilities?
Private/public capacities?
Synergies?
Trade-Offs?
Remove
polluting
production from
floodplains
10. Possible criteria for the prioritization of
adaptation measures -1
Importance:
Capability to reduce/prevent significant or irreversible damages
and/or to protect many people?
Urgency:
Massive damages already occurring (adaptation deficit)? Long-
term measures with long handling time until measure becomes
effective?
Robustness and Flexibility:
Does the measure reflect the range of uncertainty and is it ‘no-
regret’, if the climate change is not the expected one? Might the
measure be adapted, revised or made undone at low cost?
11. Possible criteria for the prioritization of
adaptation measures -2
Synergies and conflicts with other political goals:
Capability to reduce or at least not raise GHG emissions? Cross-
sectoral synergies/conflicts? Does the measure support other
political goals such as biodiversity or social justice?
Environmental Impacts:
Does the measure help to raise resilience of ecosystem services?
Is the measure invasive for ecosystems and their services?
Social Impacts:
Does the measure help to allocate risks in a fair manner? Is it
capable to bring advantages for broad parts of society? Does the
measure tackle threats for old, chronically sick and poor people?
12. Possible criteria for the prioritization of
adaptation measures -3
Economic reasonability:
Does the measure support the general government to get
along with their long-term fiscal goals? How is the return of
investment/long-term CBA? Is the measure cost-effective?
Feasibility:
Is the measure politically opportune? Is it accepted by the
aggrieved parties? Is the measure easy to implement (not too
many political scales/parties involved)? How about its
mainstreaming potential? Which role for CSOs?
And now: we try to assess some adaptation options with a
simplified assessment circle!
