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Smart and Social

The Industry’s Crown Jewel
Introduction


• Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co.
• Baird is one of the largest private investment banks
• Prior experience as software developer, Internet
  start-up and Wall Street background at JP Morgan
  and Lazard
• Covered Internet and Interactive Entertainment for
  10 years
• Based in San Francisco




                                                         2
Overview


•   Industry performance
•   Market forecast
•   Power of Exponential
•   Influence of Facebook and shift to Mobile
•   Conclusions




                                                3
Global Video Game Market




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                   4
Video Games Fastest Growth Media




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                   5
Games are the most important
   form of digital media




                               6
Platform Growth Rates




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                   7
E-commerce model to monetize games




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                     8
Beauty of Free-to-Play




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                   9
Forecast for Mobile and Social




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                   10
Significant Opportunity in Mobile Advertising




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                                11
Global Video Game Industry Growth
   will be driven by Smart Devices




                                     12
Smart + Social are exponential


•   Rapid increase in smart devices
•   Social game mechanics now available on Mobile O/S
•   Virtual goods sales expand monetization
•   Global opportunities
•   Competitive platform wars good for developers
    –   Android
    –   iOS
    –   Windows
    –   Samsung




                                                        13
Smart + Social are exponential




                                 14
Filling the Stadium




1) 45 minutes

2) 3 hours

3) 12 hours

4) 2 days



                      15
Wave of Smart Devices


                   500 M


                   400 M


                   300 M


                   200 M


                   100 M


                        M
                                   2008   2009             2010   2011

                                           Android   iOS



Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                                                         16
Game Usage on Smartphones




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                   17
Exponential – GREE mobile users (in M)




Source: Company Reports


                                         18
Tablet Sales Growing Faster than Phones




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                          19
Multi-device Lifestyle




                         20
% of Internet Traffic from Smart Devices




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                           21
App Sales are Global




Source: Flurry


                       22
% of Internet Traffic from Smart Devices




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                           23
Payments Growth on Facebook is Slowing



  Facebook Revenues                Zynga Growth Rate




Source: RW Baird & Co. estimates


                                                       24
Focus Turning from Facebook to Mobile




                                        25
Smart Devices are a disruptive force
  similar in scope to web browsers




                                       26
Platforms are key




                    27
Conclusions


•   Huge wave of smart devices
•   Exponential growth dynamics
•   Global opportunities
•   More attractive growth profile vs. Facebook
•   Efficient distribution – use the tools, play the
    platforms




                                                       28
Questions/Discussion



E-mail: csebastian@rwbaird.com
   Twitter: @colin_sebastian




                                 29

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Smart and Social, Next Gen Social Games