Failing Well Agile 2013

blog: jabe.co
FAILING
principles and practices of
Vanity Validation a Paradox of Passionate Commitment
WELL

@cyetain
What was the last thing you
failed at?
What did you learn?
Did you share your failure
with anyone?
Pre-Talk Questions

HELLLOOOO McFLY
TLC LABS
blog http://jabe.co
Send Anonymous Feedback
http://sayat.me/jabebloom
Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
CTO : The Library Corporation
& Consulting Practioner TLC Labs
#agile2013

@cyetain
Learning occurs when we
detect and correct error. Error is
any mismatch between what
we intend an action to produce
and what actually happens
when we implement that action.
-Chris Argyris

@cyetain
How Do We Make Better Choices?
Why is it so hard to Fail?
Could we design a system to help?

@cyetain
One must treat his theory-in-
use as both a psychological
certainty and an intellectual
hypothesis.
-Chris Argyris

@cyetain
How wonderful that we have
met with a paradox. Now we
have some hope of making
progress.
-Niels Bohr

@cyetain
fake dictionary page from colbertnation.com

@cyetain
Although theory without
experiment is empty,
experiment without theory is
blind.
-Paul Thagard

@cyetain
3 Things To Leave With
• Failing Well Produces more Information than
Failing Poorly
• “Passionate Beliefs, Loosely Held”
• Reducing Variability too, Soon risks
suboptimal result, too Late increases Failure
blindness

@cyetain
We simply cannot rely on
randomness to correct
the problems that
randomness creates.
-Don Reinertsen

@cyetain
undifferentiated streams
of data

@cyetain
“Research is what
I’m doing when I
don’t know what
I’m doing.”
-Wernher von Braun

@cyetain
The Principle of Optimum Failure Rate
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
PotentialInformation

@cyetain
0% 100%
50%
Greater Asserted
Information
Greater Asserted
Information

@cyetain
0% 100%
50%
Greater Asserted
Information
Greater Asserted
Information
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas

@cyetain
0% 100%
50%
Greater Asserted
Information
Greater Asserted
Information
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
Uncomfortable
Conﬁdent

@cyetain
Experience of Failure
NumberofSamples The Competency Trap

@cyetain
0% 100%
50%

@cyetain
0% 100%
50%
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
IdeasHidden
Risk
Hidden
Value
The Line of SURPRISE!

@cyetain
0% 100%
50%
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
IdeasHidden
Risk
Hidden
Value
1
2
3
During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas
Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to
reduce risk of Failure Demand
After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure
2
3
1

@cyetain
“The typical sequence of coin
tosses has high information
content but little value; an
ephemeris, giving the
positions of the moon and
planets every day for a
hundred years, has no more
information than the
equations of motion and
initial conditions from which
it was calculated, but saves
it’s owner the effort of
recalculating these positions.”
-Charles H. Bennett

@cyetain
Based on what we know
right now, what problems
do we have the least
amount of information
about that we can
reasonably expect to
understand?

@cyetain
Alteaory vs Epistemic
Uncertainties

@cyetain
Justified MVP
Value of Information
Cost of Acquisition
Cost of MVP
Unjustified
MVP
Over Justified
MVP
Justified
MVP

@cyetain
The first principle is that
you must not fool
yourself--and you are the
easiest person to fool.
-Richard Feynman

@cyetain
“Most people don’t know how to
learn. What’s more, those
members of the organization that
many assume to be the best at
learning are, in fact, not very
good at it. I am talking about the
well-educated, high-powered, high
commitment professionals”
-Chris Argyris

@cyetain
“Expertise … breeds an
inability to accept new
views.”
-Laski

@cyetain
I need to be right even
if I'm wrong.

@cyetain
Remain in unilateral
control

@cyetain
Maximize "winning"
Minimize "losing"

@cyetain
Suppress negative
feelings

@cyetain
Be as "rational" as possible
-- by which people mean
defining clear objectives and
evaluating their behavior in
terms of whether or not
they have achieved them

@cyetain
Mindset Actions
Results Match
Results Mismatch
Single-loop
Double-loop

@cyetain
Valid Public
Information

@cyetain
whenever we propose a
solution to a problem, we
ought to try as hard as we
can to overthrow our solution,
rather than defend it.
-Karl Popper

@cyetain
• Identify Your Assumptions and Conclusions
CLEARLY AS POSSIBLE PUBLICLY
• Question Your Assumptions and Conclusions
• Seek Contrary Data
• Learn when to correct your Actions and
when to correct your Mindset

@cyetain
Abduction
not just for
Aliens
@cyetain

@cyetain
[Abduction] goes upon the hope that
there is sufficient affinity between the
reasoner's mind and nature's to render
guessing not altogether hopeless,
provided each guess is checked by
comparison with observation... The
effort should therefore be to make
each hypothesis... as near an even bet
as possible.
-Charles Peirce

@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCE
INDUCE
Predictive
Probable
Plausible
The Way
Computers "Think"
The Way
Humans Think
Binary
Probability
Analogue
Justifiable

@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCE
INDUCE
Experiences Hypothesises
Expected
Outcomes
If Coherent
If Expected Outcomes
Match Reality
Effective
Match

@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCEINDUCE
SURPRISE!!!

@cyetain
Multi-Hypothesis Research
!=

@cyetain
Theories
Opinions
Hypothesizes
The Facts and Just
the Facts

@cyetain
Theories
Opinions
Hypothesizes
Constraints
Criteria

@cyetain
Theories
Opinions
Hypothesizes
Question
Facts

@cyetain
Theories
Opinions
Hypothesizes Request More
Information

@cyetain
How Would I Validate my
understanding of this
problem?
How Would I
solve this
Problem?
•Based on your experiences, what
would you do to solve this
problem? This is your Hypothesis.
•Identify What Needs to Be True if
your Hypothesis is true.
•Assert, Presume, Assume Truth
•Imagine Experiments that would
justify the Assumptions

@cyetain
I Assert that this I
know this
0% 100%
50%
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
I Presume
Somebody
knows this
I am going to Assume
this is true for my
Hypothesis to be true
0% 100%
50%
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas
0% 100%
50%
Pretty
Sure
theory
is wrong
Pretty
Sure
theory
is right
Interesting
Ideas

@cyetain
This is my Hypothesis,
Assumptions and
Experiments
Challenge
Assumptions &
Experiments
Rotate Pairs 2-3 Times
Allow Time for Revision Between Rounds

@cyetain
This is my Hypothesis,
Assumptions and
Experiments

@cyetain
Multiple Smaller Experiments
against
Multiple Abductive Hypotheses
instead of
Single Large Experiment
against
Single Hypotheses

@cyetain
Failing Well Produces more
Information than Failing
Poorly

@cyetain
What are You Doing w All that Information?
Incremental: Confirm. Disconfirm.
Iteratively: Select Next Step. Generate More
Options

@cyetain
Having “Passionate
Beliefs, Loosely Held”
FAILURE
MUST
BE AN OPTION

@cyetain
Reducing Variability too
soon risks suboptimal
result, too late increases
failure demand

@cyetain
Influences
&
Sources of More Information

@cyetain
Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
CTO : The Library Corporation
& TLC Labs
blog http://jabe.co
Send Anonymous Feedback
http://sayat.me/jabebloom

Failing Well Agile 2013

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