GUIDELINES ON USEFUL FORMS IN FREIGHT FORWARDING (F) Danny Diep Toh MBA.pdf
Exxon Mobil 2012 Energy Outlook
1. The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
Rob Gardner
May 22, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
2. Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile
Billion
2.0
OECD China India Africa
1.6
1.2 Age 65+
0.8
Age 15 – 64
0.4
Age 0 – 14
0.0
2010 2040
Source: World Bank
3. Global Progress Drives Demand
Population GDP Energy Demand
Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs
21 120 1400
Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040
18 0.8% 2.9% 1200 0.9%
100
15 1000
80
Energy Saved
12 800 ~500
60
9 600
40
6 400
Non OECD
20
3 200
OECD
0 0 0
1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
4. Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand
Non OECD GDP Non OECD Demand
Trillion 2005 $ Quadrillion BTUs
50 500
Rest of Non OECD
Rest of Non OECD
40 Russia/Caspian 400
Africa Russia/Caspian
Middle East Africa
30 300
Latin America Middle East
India Latin America
20 200
India
10 100
China
China
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
5. Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Quadrillion BTUs
300
250
200
Electricity
Demand
150 2040
2025
2010
100
50
0
Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
6. Electricity Generation
+80%
By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
7. Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
By Sector Fuel Into Electricity Generation
k TWh Quadrillion BTUs
35 300
Transportation Renewables
30 Wind
250
25
200 Nuclear
20
Residential/Commercial
150
Coal
15
100
10
Industrial
50 Gas
5
Oil
0 0
1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
8. Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
Baseload, Startup 2030 Fuel Into Electricity Generation
2011 cents/kWh Quadrillion BTUs
20 300
Renewables
$60/ton CO2
Wind
250
15
200 Nuclear
10 150
Coal
100
5
$0/ton CO2 50 Gas
Oil
0 0
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind * 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
9. Electricity Supply Varies Globally
United States Europe China
k TWh k TWh k TWh
8 8 8
6 6 6
Gas w/ CCS
4 Gas 4 4
Coal w/ CCS
2 2 2
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Oil Other Renewables
0 0 0
1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040
* Generation by Type
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
10. Transportation
90%
By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
11. Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
Commercial Personal
MBDOE MBDOE
50 50
Rail
40 40
Marine
30 30
Aviation
20 20
Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicles
10 Vehicles 10
0 0
1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
12. Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Million Vehicles On-Road MPG
1750 80 2020-2025 Target
2015 Target
1500 70
60
1250 Rest of Non
OECD
50
1000
China 40
750
30 2010
United States
500
20
250 10
Rest of OECD
0 0
2000 2020 2040 US Europe China Japan India
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
13. Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Million Vehicles On-Road MPG
1750 80 2020-2025 Target
2015 Target
Natural gas/LPG
1500 70
PHV/EV
60
1250
Hybrid
50
1000
Conv. Diesel
40
750
30 2010
500
Conv. Gasoline 20
250 10
0 0
2000 2020 2040 US Europe China Japan India
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
14. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology
Millions of Vehicles
500 2010
400
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
300
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
200
100
0
North Europe Other OECD China India Middle East Latin Other Non
America OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
15. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology
Millions of Vehicles
500 2025
400
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
300
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
200
100
0
North Europe Other OECD China India Middle East Latin Other Non
America OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
16. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology
Millions of Vehicles
500 2040
400
PHV/EV
Full Hybrid
CNG
300 LPG
Diesel Conv
Mogas Conv
200
100
0
North Europe Other OECD China India Middle East Latin Other Non
America OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
17. Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel
OECD Non OECD
MBDOE MBDOE
50 50
40 40
Fuel Oil
30 30
Other
Jet Fuel
20 Biodiesel 20
Diesel
10 10
Ethanol
Gasoline
0 0
1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
18. Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
250
0.9%
0.7% Average Growth / Yr.
2040
200
2010 - 2040
1.6%
2010
150
-0.2%
100
2.2% 0.3%
50
6.0% 1.6%
0
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar / Hydro / Geo
Biofuels
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
19. CO2 Emissions Plateau
By Region Emissions per Capita
Billion Tons Tons per Person
40 20
2010
30 Rest of Non OECD 15 2025
India & Africa 2040
20 10
China
10 5
OECD
0 0
1990 2015 2040 U.S. Europe China India
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
20. Supply
By 2040
60%
of global demand will be
supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
21. Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Liquids Supply Resource *
MBDOE TBO
120 5
Biofuels
100 NGLs
4
Deepwater
Remaining
80 Tight Oil Resource
Oil Sands 3
60
2
40
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Cumulative
1 Production
20
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy authorized in advance by IHS.
22. Global Gas Resource
8.1
• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
• Large unconventional gains anticipated
4.8
1.3 4.9
Europe
OECD
North America Russia/Caspian* 4.1
1000 TCF
30 2.3
25 Middle East
Unconventional 2.6
20
Africa
Asia Pacific
15
10 Conventional Latin America
5
0
World
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
23. Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases
Production by Type Demand by Region
BCFD BCFD
600 600
Conventional Rest of Non
Unconventional OECD
500 500
Russia/Caspian
400 400
Middle East
300 300
AP Non OECD
200 200
Rest of OECD
100 100
North America
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
24. Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025
By Type
BCFD
LNG
45
Pipeline
Local Unconventional
Local Conventional
30
15
0
-15
-30
North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
25. Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040
By Type
BCFD
LNG
45
Pipeline
Local Unconventional
Local Conventional
30
15
0
-15
-30
North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
26. REGIONAL
SNAPSHOTS
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
27. North America Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
125 125
Other Renewables
Res/Comm
Biomass
100 100
Nuclear
Industrial
Coal
75 75
Electricity Gas
50 Generation 50
25 25
Oil
Transportation
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
28. Latin America Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
50 50
Res/Comm
40 40 Other Renewables
Biomass
Industrial Nuclear
30 30 Coal
Gas
20 20
Electricity
Generation
10 10
Oil
Transportation
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
29. Europe Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
100 100
80 80 Other Renewables
Res/Comm
Biomass
60 Industrial 60 Nuclear
Coal
40 40 Gas
Electricity
Generation
20 20
Oil
Transportation
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
30. China Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
150 150
Other Renewables
Res/Comm
125 125 Biomass
Nuclear
100 Industrial 100
Coal
75 75
50 Electricity 50
Generation Gas
25 25
Oil
Transportation
0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
31. Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
Percent
Other Renewables
100
Nuclear
Hydro
80
Gas
60
Oil
40
20
Coal
Biomass
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2040
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)