Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Overview April 2013

WebRTC: Overview, Status & Forecast
An extract of Disruptive Analysis’ groundbreaking new research report on WebRTC
More detail available for report purchasers/subscribers

April 4th 2013

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

About Disruptive Analysis

 London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
 Covers mobile, voice, service provider technology
 Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
 Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
 Covering VoIP since 1997 & WebRTC since June 2011
 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
 **New** Report on WebRTC, Published Feb 2013
see http://disruptive-analysis.com/webrtc.htm

Twitter @disruptivedean
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Remember these? Video & IM move to web

Many previous “standalone” functions are now integrated with web pages

Coming next: voice, video, data in browser

(Yes, you can sort-of do it with plug-ins and
Flash already.... But it’s not very good)

Concept: a simple set of Javascript APIs so web devs can use it without fuss
Complexities of codecs, media engine, firewall traversal etc all “sorted”

What is WebRTC & why does it matter?
 In-browser comms, “realtime web”
 Catalysed by Google & open-sourcing of GIPS engine
 W3C WebRTC = API & IETF RTCWeb = protocols
 In theory – no separate apps or plug-ins
 Aimed at allowing developers to add voice/video etc easily
 Part of HTML5 & based on Javascript
 Better than Flash for RTC
 3 main APIs
 1. GetUserMedia (camera and microphone access)
 2. PeerConnection (sending and receiving media)
 3. DataChannels (sending non-media direct between browsers)
 Also ties in with “Websocket” IP connections
 W3C Last Call Working Draft expected in Q3 2013. Specification is likely
to be standardized in 2014

For the technically-minded....
 WebRTC is a set of 3 W3C JavaScript APIs on top of...
 RTCWeb, which is IETF’s on-the-wire protocol standard
 Google open-sourced GIPS media engine for WebRTC
 Standards debates: codecs (VP8/H264) & API flexibility
GetUserMedia PeerConnection DataChannels
Yes Yes Developer builds
Yes Yes, but not default Yes, but not default
Yes Timing unclear Timing Unclear
Unknown if/when Unknown if/when Unknown if/when

Disruptive Analysis expects IE & Safari to start supporting WebRTC by end-2013.
Neither auto-updates: there will remain a large non-supporting base for some time

WebRTC implementation: fixed & mobile

Most WebRTC on
PCs will be “inside
the browser”

On mobile, it’s
much more
complicated

Native browser Natively in OS 2nd browser 3rd party SDK

WebRTC is one area that is definitely not “mobile-first”. PCs about 18 months ahead

Device base supporting WebRTC
4000

3500 Tablets
3000 Smartphones
2500 PCs
Million

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report, Feb 2013
Definitions & methodology in report - See disruptivewireless.blogspot.com for details

WebRTC base will grow rapidly, catalysed by auto-updated Chrome & Firefox browsers

Voice/video moving from service to function

Service
e.g. SMS, Telephony
Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference

Feature
e.g. Business social

Function

WebRTC? But we’ve had VoIP apps for years!
 Most VoIP apps are standalone “calling” tools
 Contextual / in-app opportunity slow & fragmented
 Complexity for developers
 X-Platform hassles
 Rocket-science for SIP, acoustics etc
 Immaturity of voice/telephony APIs
 “Telephony” model inflexible
 WebRTC fit with HTML5/apps should enable “beyond the call” voice &
video with less heavy lifting
 Similar to Flash video replacing Real for in-browser streaming
 Plus cool new stuff like realtime data
 Mashups + comms may shift shape of the curve


Voice ≠ Telephony
Past: 2G / 3G / PSTN / UC Future: WebRTC, apps, APIs, 4G
Voice
Voice

Telephony

Telephony

Voicemail Gaming, CEBP,
Conferencing surveillance, social
PTT Video voice, TV voice etc
Video, context, sense
Expect a shift away from “standalone” to “contexualised” communications

Only a slight exaggeration:

Phone calls are 120 years old

The “call” is reaching obsolescence

Poor fit with real human behaviour

WebRTC & mobile apps enable better, but
fragmented communications


WebRTC key use cases
Browser-to-browser Browser-to-Telco Browser-to-Telco CS Browser-to-UC
(or web-app) comms VoIP/IMS/3Telco- / PSTN or IP-PBX
OTT

IMS

Browser-to- Browser-to-contact Browser/app Verticals
webserver centre conferencing

Web

Healthcare

Plus: M2M, gaming, TV-based, data-centric & various others

What use-cases lead?

Existing
Adding real-time
web
comms capabilities
services

Existing
Extending via the web, realtime
blending web capabilities comms
services

?


Developer world is fragmented

VoIP & Mobile
Video App WebRTC is trying
devs devs to please all the
people, all the time

Corp
Web
IT
devs
devs


WebRTC is a 3-legged (& therefore stable) stool
WebRTC

Enterprise Telco Consumer

Can survive even if one of the “legs”
takes too long: especially as each
area has 3-5 major subsets

Enterprise Telco Consumer


Enterprise benefits of WebRTC as platform

 Many use-cases & “angles”
 Your website becomes your call centre
 New models for customer interaction (eg contextual support via video)
 Browser becomes flexible/updateable softphone
 Easier federation / interconnect between companies
 Slick web-based conferencing, inc. easier integration with web tools
like LinkedIn & DropBox
 Easier 2-way comms within mobile apps
 Various new possibilities with realtime data sharing
 Don’t just think about WebRTC in terms of today’s telephony
 Think more adding comms to any company website or app


Enterprises? Never mind BYO Device.....

 How about BYO voice?
 Or BYO messaging & UC?
 Or BYO conferencing?
 Or BYO contact centre?

 Voice & video comms about to be democratised
 Traditional enterprise teams needs to understand/exploit
 Or else the web & users will do it independently


For telcos, it’s all looking pretty grim anyway
Downsides
Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation
Regulation & competitive impacts
Weak content & VAS propositions
Economic pressures
Ecosystem competition

Upsides
Connecting the last unconnected
Smartphones & data growth
Better segmentation, pricing & promotion
Innovative services & enablers
Embracing & exploiting fragmentation

For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst

Now

With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed
Feb 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

Voice & messaging go in-context

Telephony and messaging is increasingly done “in-
context” or “in-app”. But in many cases, telco APIs don’t
offer the right “raw ingredients” or business model.

Fragmentation is valuable

Convergence & Fragmentation &
standards innovation

It will fragment “because it
can”. Consumer need for
ubiquity is over-rated

… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.
They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
Ubiquity is dead.

Telcos developing “digital services” arms

Many operators have business units developing their own “Telco-OTT” services.
WebRTC can help time-to-market, functionality & ease of development
March 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 23

Key success factors for Telco-OTT/WebRTC

Organisation & governance Managing cannibalisation Network awareness

Design Software mindset Synergies
March 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 24

Multiple telco angles/oppo’s for using WebRTC
Enterprise VoIP
/ UC /
conferencing
moving to
WebRTC Ground-up
Telco-OTT
interest in
reach improved
WebRTC (in
by WebRTC
labs etc)

Extension of Telco Apps, developer
IMS / RCS / & HTML5
VoLTE over WebRTC initiatives
WebRTC interest adding WebRTC

+ Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it?
Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc?
IMS extension currently “loudest” Telco/WebRTC domain, but not necessarily
most important. Execs should ensure it is exploited across the organisation

Key question: New ecosystem battleground?

+ growing vendor
support

Traditional comms tools &
services in the crossfire?
Microsoft CU-RTC-WEB WebRTC or not?
Apple & Microsoft not yet aligned – will they use WebRTC as a way to fight Google?
If so, will telcos and classical voice networks be collateral damage?

Use-case summary: WebRTC exploitation factors
Contact
Calling centres UC Conferencing IMS extension Social Telco-OTT
WebRTC-Only
Control over users
Risk Appetite
End-to-end control
PSTN integration
Device diversity expected
Direction of comms
Novelty value
Organisational issues
Business model clarity
Geek factor
Wealthy users only?
Broadband requirements
Target platform diversity
Behaviour change needed
Legacy integration problems
Importance of UI/UX
Person-to-person, or A2P?
Litigation/regulatory risks
Competitive threats
Incumbency obstacles

Source: Disruptive Analysis, Feb 2013
Factor descriptions/detail in full report:
See disruptive-analysis.com Favourable Moderate Challenging Difficult

Conclusion
 WebRTC is real and here now
 Still very new but evolving at super-speed
 Standards issues, mobile & even MS/Apple worked around
 Supported by almost all “big names” from comms & Web
 “Buzz” from incumbents, startups, investors; few dissenters
 Browser support on PCs fairly fast, mobile more patchy
 Multiple use-cases
 Enterprise
 Telco
 Consumer web
 Niche / vertical / disruptive plays
 Use-cases with many “moving parts” will take longer
 So start now!


www.disruptive-analysis.com  WebRTC report details
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com

+44 (0) 7941 100016
Skype: disruptiveanalysis


Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Overview April 2013

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Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Overview April 2013