Presentation on future issues around spectrum management & wireless business models. Covers WiFi, 5G, role of mobile operators, LTE-U & related topics

1. The Future of Spectrum Management
Avoiding a service monoculture
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
June 2015
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

2. About Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst house & strategic consulting firm
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
 Forecasting & anti-forecasting
 Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
 Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
 Reports on Mobile Broadband, WebRTC etc
 Not a day-to-day spectrum specialist
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

3. Regulation is good at dealing with….
 Standalone services
 Well-defined products
 Stable standards
 National / regional
 Service providers
 Homogeneous
 Similar models
 Few in number
 Commercial / Govt
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

4. Regulation is bad at dealing with….
 Generalised capabilities
 Fluid products/features
 No/changing standards
 Non-geographic
 Capability providers
 Diverse stakeholders
 Non-service models
 Many players
 New motivations
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
FREE!
Cloud-
based
Mashups
P2P & Crowd-
sourced
X-as-a-
Feature
Distributed

5. Different domains, similar challenges
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Regulated, predictable,
important, inflexible
tax/fee-generating
Services
Un/light-regulated,
unpredictable,
innovative, disruptive
Capabilities
Telecom Services
Telcos: Voice
telephony & SMS
Internet Capabilities
“OTTs”, apps, social.
Dev & web community
Spectrum for Services
Mobile Broadband
Broadcast & Satellite
Spectrum for Capabilities
WiFi, short-range, PMSE,
IoT, private cellular, govt

6. Diversity vs. Monoculture
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Efficient & Productive Diversity & Future Optionality

7. IMT intended for “services”, with all that implies
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8. Not everything wireless is a subscription model
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AmenitySubscription
service
Owned
outright
Peer-to-peer
Sponsored Transactional Also: Wireless-as-
a-feature

9. SPs are not the only wireless stakeholders
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User
Mobile operator
Venues Fixed/cable
Things
OS / OEMEnterprises
Broadcasters
Internet
Automotive City Brand Developers

10. Unexpected routes to digitalisation of society
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11. Mobile broadband forecasts over-cooked?
 Much growth driven by new (high-end) users & devices
 IoT forecasts attempt to create self-fulfilling prophecies
 Assume “service” & IMT-type “operator” model is optimal & ubiquitous
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Subscriber numbers
Data per subscriber
Smartphone 3G/4G data traffic growth
Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis
Dominated by
subs growth
Unrealistic view of
usage growth in
prepay-dominated
market?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Postpaid
Prepaid
Mobile data subs, year-end, m
Source: Disruptive Analysis Mobile Broadband report
Mostly fixed
monthly quotas
Incentivised to
use less data?

12. The vision for 5G…
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
Ultra-fast
mobile
broadband
Critical &
low
latency
Super-
dense
IoT
• All-embracing
• Many use-cases
• Strong arguments for
more spectrum, but…
• Unintended
consequences?
• Pre-defines model &
stakeholders?
• Extends oligopolies to
adjacent mkts?
• WiFi offload / LTE-U /
LAA as example?

13. Conclusion: The next 10 years
 Mobile Broadband “service” model a huge success…
 … but not the only way forward
 Innovation comes from diversity, not monoculture
 Spectrum regulation decoupled from downstream innovators
 2nd-order stakeholder groups proliferating for wireless
 Risk of unfair competition between models not just companies
 Beware of assumptions & unintended consequences
 Spectrum Mgmt 2025 must be more than just “services”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015

14. Dean Bubley
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015