Snapshot of a set of key challenges, opportunities, myths & misconceptions in the telecoms industry. Thought-provoking soundbites on voice, Net Neutrality, mobile broadband & other topic

1. Key technology trends & challenges for
communications providers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
May 2014
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

2. About Disruptive Analysis
 London-based tech analyst house & strategic consulting firm
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
 Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
 Internal workshops & brainstorms
 Clients include many top telcos, vendors, webcos & startups
 Orange, Telenor, VZ, T-Mobile, SingTel, SKT, NTT, Belgacom, Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei,
ALU, Oracle, Genband, Qualcomm, Celcom, Amdocs, IBM, Ofcom, GSMA
 Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
 Reports on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, WebRTC etc
 New report on “Non-Neutral Broadband Models”
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014

3. Mobile data: Tsunami or just normal rising tide?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
3G/4G Smartphone data use
• Disruptive Analysis has doubts on realism of some traffic forecasts (esp. Cisco VNI)
• Growth manageable with pricing, small cells, LTE, LTE-A. 5G is mostly hype for now
• “Spectrum crunch” narrative highly questionable (landgrab vs broadcast?)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growing usage per smartphone
Growing # smartphone subs
?
NB 2012-13 subs growth possibly skewed by
older smartphones without data plans
Smartphone data use growth year-on-year
c20-30% growth/user/yr
Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis

4. Network Neutrality: storm in a teacup?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
Red Herring Neutral-ish & maybe
unworkable
• Few realistic scenarios beyond zero-rating
• Lots of scope for failure
• Only winners will be the lawyers
• Blocking = Unwinnable tech arms-race
Some zero-rating is
feasible (Rev=Zero)
Impossible wishful-
thinking
Low-end users in
emerging markets

5. Two charts you’ll never see…
Calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
B2C Cust Svc
B2B internal
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
Must
have
Nice to
have
Meh. I
want
free
I'll call
back
Importance of QoS, % calls
Diagrams are illustrative, not actual data
• Telecom industry doesn’t understand demand for its core product
• Makes it impossible to defend vs. competition & substitution

6. OTT voice & messaging: pricing & purpose
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
VoiceMessaging
Standalone
“call/send”
model
Standalone
other model
Embedded
in app/web
WebRTC
SMS
iMessage
FaceTime
Audio
FaceTime
Video
Skype
Facebook
Messenger
WhatsApp
LINE
WeChat
Google
Hangouts
GTalk
PSTN,
VoLTE
RCS
Flash
Lync API
Siri
iOS/Android
notifications
Video
 Free or almost-free
 Better experience
 Fits use-cases & contexts
 Fast-evolving
 Viral / cool / peer-group
 Partner? Own OTT?
 New sources of revenue

7. VoLTE… eventually… patchily
 Limited deployment of VoLTE so far
 Live in 3 South Korea networks & quite widely used
 Huge work undertaken, dense cell networks (inc. indoor), cooperation
 Small MetroPCS deployment, halted after T-Mo acquisition
 AT&T – limited launch May 2014 (1 phone, 3 areas)
 Small “Press release” launches on O2 DE & CSL HK
 China Mobile demo + aggressive 2014/15 plans
 Extremely complex. Many separate problems & issues
 Most LTE operators sticking to CSFB for now
 Against a backdrop of falling demand & revenue for telephony
 No obvious VoLTE benefits beyond HD & minor spectrum gain
 RCS / joyn – zombie technology. Dead but still shambling
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014

8. Beyond OTT apps: WebRTC= next disruption
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report

9. Policy & innovation…… …..vs. politics
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
Strategy
Mobile
broadband
Telco
Depts
In-house
apps &
content
Marketing
/ Product
ITCore
network
Radio
network
Devices
Legal
Tensions
Tensions
Distance
• Design skills
• Software skills
• Cannibalisation
• “Standards”
• Risk-averse
• Legacy tech
Tensions

10. Other “Disruptive” trends & opinions
 GSMA, 3GPP, ETNO etc. often a hindrance, not a help
 NFC is a pointless waste of time, especially for telcos
 SDN & NFV may be game-changers, but patchy & slow
 IoT is going to need more IT/solutions skills than connectivity
 Privacy & encryption becoming more important post-Snowden
 Reach & impact of Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google,
Microsoft cannot be underestimated. Watch capex & R&D
 Lots going on with enterprise & cloud communications
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014

11. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
Also **NEW**: Non-Neutral Mobile
Internet Business Models Report
Also on request: private workshops &
expert advisory retainers
For details email
information@disruptive-analysis.com

12. www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014