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The Economics of Mobility Mark Roettgering Senior Director, Corporate Strategy & Analysis T-Mobile USA © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc.
The Economics of Mobility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
Traditional View: Communications Market is Maturing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: US Census, CTIA, Merrill Lynch, T-Mobile estimates © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:  US wireless penetration and ARPU trends $1 $51 $137 87% Wireless Penetration ARPU $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 100 827 3.7 Mb Data usage 1 MOU 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Monthly MOU and data usage
A broader view shows colliding industries… Fixed broadband network operator TV creation & distribution Search Other CE creation & distribution Software & applications Fixed  narrowband network  operator Social Networking ePayments Home networking & automation Games Fixed video network operator Music creation & distribution Print creation & distribution Movie creation & distribution Mobile device creation & distribution MNO © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
U.S. Communications Value Chain Today Product Retail/Service IP Web 2.0 app / service players (000s) © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
Consumer demand driving high investment $58B Source: T-Mobile estimates Includes wireless “Big 6” 2001-2004 and “Big 4” 2005-2008 “ Big 2” cable – Comcast, Time Warner, “Big” satellite – DirectTV Top 2 RBOCs – AT&T & VZ  Total U.S. Communications Capex  + Spectrum Spend   Leading national players Wireless CapEx Wireless  Spectrum $20B $17B $19B $22B $22B $18B $21B $19B $20B $29B $30B $18B 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 $53B $47B $34B $33B $33B Other  CapEx © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
Communications space defined ,[object Object],Broadcast Specific Sender Anonymous Receiver Specific Anonymous Information content / retrieval Direct communication Direct communication © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
Consumer willingness to pay (per bit) falls quickly as we move away from direct communication Cost and Revenue figures are crude estimates for illustrative purposes only ,[object Object],© 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:  Method Size (kB) Cost Revenue Margin % Margin $ Mobile Payment 1 $0.00  $0.25  100% $0.25  SMS 0 $0.00  $0.05  100% $0.05  Text eMail 5 $0.00  $0.02  98% $0.02  3min Voice Call 150 $0.02  $0.15  90% $0.14  Picture Message 100 $0.01  $0.07  86% $0.06  Web Page Load 200 $0.02  $0.05  60% $0.03  3min MP3 3,000 $0.30  $0.25  -20% ($0.05) 3min Video 8,000 $0.80  $0.25  -220% ($0.55)
The Communications Ecosystem: Who is in control ? ,[object Object],3 rd  - party Carriers OEMs “ Closed  Access” “ Open  Access” “ Closed  Development ” “ Open  Development” Communications Ecosystem © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:  Control Points Distribution/Sales Applications Network Access UI OS Hardware Development
Industry evolution is certain – direction not fully known Status quo modes of communication and entertainment  Status quo applications / services Dedicated devices / use cases New modes of communication / entertainment Rich applications / services Device convergence Fixed-mobile convergence Integration Low competition Asset scarcity Closed networks/devices/OS Significant barriers Open standards Open networks/devices/OS High competition Substitutability / modularity Low barriers Competitiveness / industry structure Consumer needs / service convergence “ Integrators rule” B “ Communications 2.0” C “ Simple services bazaar” D “ No news”  A 2008 2013 © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
Matching consumer needs with system economics will determine direction of emerging communications Status quo modes of communication and entertainment  Status quo applications / services Dedicated devices / use cases New modes of communication / entertainment Rich applications / services Device convergence Fixed-mobile convergence Integration Low competition Asset scarcity Closed networks/devices/OS Significant barriers Competitiveness  / industry structure Consumer needs / service convergence “ Integrators rule” B “ Communications 2.0” C “ Simple services bazaar” D “ No news”  A Open standards Open networks/devices/OS High competition Substitutability / modularity Low barriers 3 rd  - party Carriers OEMs “ Closed  Access” “ Open  Access” “ Closed  Development ” “ Open  Development” Device Ecosystem B A D C © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
Consumer / Economics matching process is a funnel 1 2 3 4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Opportunity T-Mobile Committed to Open Development © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
T-Mobile thanks eComm sponsors for making this conference possible… © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:

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Mark Roettgering’s Presentation at eComm 2009

  • 1. The Economics of Mobility Mark Roettgering Senior Director, Corporate Strategy & Analysis T-Mobile USA © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. A broader view shows colliding industries… Fixed broadband network operator TV creation & distribution Search Other CE creation & distribution Software & applications Fixed narrowband network operator Social Networking ePayments Home networking & automation Games Fixed video network operator Music creation & distribution Print creation & distribution Movie creation & distribution Mobile device creation & distribution MNO © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
  • 5. U.S. Communications Value Chain Today Product Retail/Service IP Web 2.0 app / service players (000s) © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
  • 6. Consumer demand driving high investment $58B Source: T-Mobile estimates Includes wireless “Big 6” 2001-2004 and “Big 4” 2005-2008 “ Big 2” cable – Comcast, Time Warner, “Big” satellite – DirectTV Top 2 RBOCs – AT&T & VZ Total U.S. Communications Capex + Spectrum Spend Leading national players Wireless CapEx Wireless Spectrum $20B $17B $19B $22B $22B $18B $21B $19B $20B $29B $30B $18B 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 $53B $47B $34B $33B $33B Other CapEx © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Industry evolution is certain – direction not fully known Status quo modes of communication and entertainment Status quo applications / services Dedicated devices / use cases New modes of communication / entertainment Rich applications / services Device convergence Fixed-mobile convergence Integration Low competition Asset scarcity Closed networks/devices/OS Significant barriers Open standards Open networks/devices/OS High competition Substitutability / modularity Low barriers Competitiveness / industry structure Consumer needs / service convergence “ Integrators rule” B “ Communications 2.0” C “ Simple services bazaar” D “ No news” A 2008 2013 © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
  • 11. Matching consumer needs with system economics will determine direction of emerging communications Status quo modes of communication and entertainment Status quo applications / services Dedicated devices / use cases New modes of communication / entertainment Rich applications / services Device convergence Fixed-mobile convergence Integration Low competition Asset scarcity Closed networks/devices/OS Significant barriers Competitiveness / industry structure Consumer needs / service convergence “ Integrators rule” B “ Communications 2.0” C “ Simple services bazaar” D “ No news” A Open standards Open networks/devices/OS High competition Substitutability / modularity Low barriers 3 rd - party Carriers OEMs “ Closed Access” “ Open Access” “ Closed Development ” “ Open Development” Device Ecosystem B A D C © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide:
  • 12.
  • 13. T-Mobile thanks eComm sponsors for making this conference possible… © 2009 T-Mobile USA, Inc. Slide: