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                          US Retail Ecommerce
                          Outlook—What’s
                          Driving Growth?



                                        Sponsored by:

Jeffrey Grau
Principal Analyst
                                                ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey




                  Product
                  category
                  forecast




                                         Shoppers
        Online               Leading     & buyers
         sales               retailers    forecast
       forecast




                                                     ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
The outlook is bright for US retail
ecommerce sales
Online sales will grow more than 4 times the rate of
3.4% the NRF forecasts for total retail sales in 2013

                                   Retail Ecommerce
                                     Sales Defined
                   R
               CAG
           14%                Products/services ordered online or price
                              and terms of sale negotiated online, even if
                              payment or fulfillment occurs in-store
                              Included:
                                 o digital downloads (e.g., music from
                                     iTunes and movies from Netflix)
                                 o Gross merchandise value (GMV) of
                                     items sold on online marketplaces
                                     like Amazon and eBay
                                 o Sales from US retail websites to
                                     foreign customers
                              Excluded:
                                 o Travel and event tickets sold online



                                                                  ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
What forces are influencing
  ecommerce growth?


                                             Convenience, price and
                                                   selection
                                             Consumers find information,
                                             compare prices and access
                  The Economy                virtually limitless product
           After a burst of economic gains   selection at anytime, from
           in January and February, job      anywhere
           growth slowed to a trickle in
           March, raising concerns about
           the strength of the economic
           recovery in 2013

                                               Waves of innovation
                                              Mobile, globalization,
                                              omnichannel capabilities,
                                              online marketplaces,
                                              personalization, expedited
                                              fulfillment, new business
                                              models




Twitter – #eMwebinar
                                                                           ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile spending has begun to have an
impact on ecommerce




                           Tablet Share of
                          Mcommerce Sales
                              2013   2017
                              62.5% 71.5%




                                       ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
US ecommerce is also starting to get a
boost from international sales

                                2013 Asia
                             Ecommerce Facts
                           Asia-Pacific will surpass North
                           America as the world’s biggest
                           B2C ecommerce market
                           B2C ecommerce sales in Asia-
                           Pacific will grow more than 30% vs.
                           12.2% in North America
                           China, India and Indonesia are
                           driving the fast ecommerce growth
                           in Asia-Pacific
                           China, the primary driver of Asia-
                           Pacific growth, will surpass Japan
                           as the region’s largest B2C
                           ecommerce market
                           Note: B2C includes travel, digital downloads and
                           event tickets sales
                           Source: eMarketer, February 2013


                                                              ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Comparative estimates of ecommerce
sales growth range from 10% to 14%




                                     ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Historically, research firms have been
bearish in forecasting online sales




                                         ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Ecommerce is gradually accounting for
  more of total retail sales

Ecommerce is growing 2-3 times   …and the result is rising
faster than total retail sales   online sales penetration rates




Twitter – #eMwebinar
                                                          ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
But thinking about channels as distinct
entities ignores how consumers shop


                   “At some point that
                   breakdown becomes
                   immeasurable and
                   irrelevant.”
                   Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
                                                             Eric Best
                                                             CEO
                                                             Mercent



                   “This notion of channel is almost
                   melting away. What’s important is
                   how different channels influence
                   each other and how to attribute
                   customer engagement across
                   them.”
                   Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013
                                                             Sean Cook
                                                             CEO
                                                             ShopVisible

                                                                   ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey




                  Product
                  category
                  forecast




                                         Shoppers
        Online               Leading     & buyers
         sales               retailers    forecast
       forecast




                                                     ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
The two
largest
product
categories
will account
for 42.9% of
total online
sales in 2013




                ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
A mix of
larger and
smaller
online
product
categories
will post the
highest
CAGRs from
2012-2017



                ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Several
categories
exceed the
online
penetration
rate of 6%
for total
retail
ecommerce
sales



              ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Categories to watch: Apparel and
accessories


                                Market Position
                                       Low      Medium    High
                      Size (billion)                      $54.2
                      Growth                              17.2%
                      Penetration               14%

                      Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company




                                Growth Enablers
                      Body scanning technology
                      Runway videos
                      360 degree product views
                      Home try-on programs


                                                           ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Categories to watch: CPG (groceries
  and personal care)


                                   Market Position
                                         Low      Medium    High
                        Size (billion)   $18.3
                        Growth                              15.2%
                        Penetration 1-4%

                        Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company




                                  Growth Enablers
                        Automatic replenishment programs
                        Broader product selection
                        Faster and lower-cost delivery



Twitter – #eMwebinar
                                                              ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Categories to watch: Autos and parts


                                 Market Position
                                          Low      Medium            High
                      Size (billion)      $25.5
                      Growth         9.2%
                      Penetration <5%

                      Source: eMarketer




                                Growth Enablers
                      In 2011, 35% of new vehicle buyers
                      said they would buy a car online, up
                      from 21% in 2009*
                      Powerful car dealership lobby has
                      blocked the sale of cars online
                                          Source: *Capgemini, Oct 2011



                                                                         ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey




                  Product
                  category
                  forecast




                                         Shoppers
        Online               Leading
                                         & buyers
         sales                            forecast
                             retailers
       forecast




                                                     ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Amazon is a powerful engine of
ecommerce growth
Amazon accounts for a large share of US online sales
and is growing faster than ecommerce overall



                                  If 2012 sales included
                                  the gross merchandise
                                  value from third-party
                                  merchants, Amazon’s
                                  contribution to US
                                  ecommerce sales would
                                  be around 25%.
                                  Source: JMP Securities, March 2013




                                                                   ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Two Amazon growth engines: Prime
and its third-party sellers marketplace




                 Key Stats                         Amazon said unit sales from its third-
                                                    party sellers in the US increased more
                  Membership (millions)             than 40% over the 2011 holiday season
2011                        4                      Online marketplaces (e.g., Amazon,
2012                       10                       eBay, Rakuten and Sears) account for
                                                    27% online retail sales*
2017                       25
                                                   Marketplaces introduce consumers to
                  Annual Spend                      unfamiliar retailersand greater product
Prime members              $1,224                   selection

Non-members                $505                   Source: *ChannelAdvisor, 2012


Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners



                                                                                         ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
A number of major retail chains
  reported strong online sales growth




Twitter – #eMwebinar
                                        ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Factors attributed to strong growth


                                                            Reduced conflict between its stores and
                                                             website by restructuring company by major
                                                             brands—Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic
                                                             —as opposed to by stores, online, outlets and
                                                             international


                                                               Better website search and navigation
                                                               Richer product information
                                                               Richer visualization tools
                                                               Speedier order fulfillment and delivery


                                                            Increased coordination across digital and store
                                                             channels
                                                            Upgraded mobile and online sites
                                                            Enhanced customer engagement features

Source: Corporate earnings announcements as reported in Internet Retailer

                                                                                                          ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Retailers attribute omnichannel
   initiatives with boosting sales growth
   Walgreens found that its omnichannel shoppers
   spend more than its single-channel shoppers




Stores-only
                                                       1

Stores + Web
                                                       1                   2                3           3-1/2

Stores + Web + Mobile

                                                       1               2                3                 4               5                  6


   Source: Miguel, Almeida, VP of ecommerce at Walgreens at a session at Retails’ Big Show 2013, sponsored by the National Retail
   Federation
                                                                                                                                    ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Roadmap of our journey




                  Product
                  category
                  forecast




                                         Shoppers
        Online               Leading     & buyers
         sales               retailers    forecast
       forecast




                                                     ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Current (not new) online buyers are
driving the bulk of ecommerce sales
growth

                         Key Shopper/Buyer Stats

                                     CAGR (2012-2017)
                         Shoppers         2.7%
                         Buyers           3.8%

                                          2013
                         Buyers as a %    82.2%
                         of shoppers




                                                 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Smartphones and tablets have become
  commonplace devices for buying online




Twitter – #eMwebinar
                                     ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
By all estimates a strong majority of
internet users make online purchases




                                        ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Online buying is prevalent across all
age cohorts
Buyers 65+ will grow faster than any other group at a
7.3% CAGR from 2012-2017




                                                ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Online spending is well distributed
across household income segments




                                      ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Impetus for spending more online:
Personalization
                                   Survey Findings
                    41% of online shoppers buy more from retailers
                    who send them personalized emails based on
                    past browsing and buying behavior
                    39% purchase more on retail sites with product
                    recommendations

                    Source: The e-tailing group, sponsored by MyBuys, December 2012




                             Personalization Drives
                             Online Sales at Sears
                    Shop Your Way membership program, which offers
                    personalized product offers based on customer shopping
                    behavior and other characteristics, strongly contributed to:
                            25% boost in online sales for Q4 2012
                            17% increase for all of 2012

                    Source: Internet Retailer, March 2013


                                                                           ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Impetus for spending more online:
Trust and security


                  “Every year we see more
                  consumers who were
                  latecomers to online shopping
                  trusting ecommerce.”

                  Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013   Vineet Buch
                                                            Group product
                                                            manager
                                                            Google


                “Free returns engender online
                trust by reducing the likelihood
                a consumer will have buyers’
                remorse.”
                Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013



                                                            Jason Goldberg
                                                            VP strategy
                                                            Razorfish

                                                                   ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
What were the highlights of our
journey?




                   Product
                   category
                   forecast




                                          Shoppers
         Online               Leading     & buyers
          sales               retailers    forecast
        forecast




                                                      ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Takeaways


    US retail ecommerce sales will increase at a 14%
     CAGR from 2012 to 2017
    Mobile users’ share of US retail ecommerce sales will
     rise from 15% in 2013 to 25% by 2017
    Ecommerce growth comes from current (not new)
     online buyers, who account for 73% of internet users
    Apparel & accessories and CPG are large
     categories with strong online growth potential
    All age groups partake in online buying, but those ages
     65+ are the fastest growing cohort


Twitter – #eMwebinar
                                                        ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer Webinar: US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth?
Trend: Greater Need for Guidance when
           Shopping Online
This is Where Needle Comes in
Power of a Needler
How Needle Does It
Guided Shopping Online Using Your Best Fans
Learn more about mobile marketing with
Q&A Session                    an eMarketer corporate subscription

US Retail Ecommerce         About 200 eMarketer reports are
  Outlook—What’s            published each year. The following are
   Driving Growth           a few recent ones you may be
                            interested in:

                            US Retail Ecommerce: 2013 Forecast and Comparative
                            Estimates
                            Online User Reviews: Building Trust and Boosting Sales
                            Shopping Cart Abandonment: New Ways of Looking at
                            the Purchase Path
   Jeffrey Grau
                            Retail Mobile Commerce Forecast: Shoppers Turn to
You will receive an email   Smartphones First
 tomorrow with a link to
                            Multichannel Customer Service: Best Practices for
   view the deck and
   webinar recording.       Building Retail Loyalty


      Sponsored by:            To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products

      Needle                        800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com


                                                                         ©2013 eMarketer Inc.

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eMarketer Webinar: US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth?

  • 1. A P R I L 1 8, 2 0 1 3 US Retail Ecommerce Outlook—What’s Driving Growth? Sponsored by: Jeffrey Grau Principal Analyst ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 2. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 3. The outlook is bright for US retail ecommerce sales Online sales will grow more than 4 times the rate of 3.4% the NRF forecasts for total retail sales in 2013 Retail Ecommerce Sales Defined R CAG 14% Products/services ordered online or price and terms of sale negotiated online, even if payment or fulfillment occurs in-store Included: o digital downloads (e.g., music from iTunes and movies from Netflix) o Gross merchandise value (GMV) of items sold on online marketplaces like Amazon and eBay o Sales from US retail websites to foreign customers Excluded: o Travel and event tickets sold online ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 4. What forces are influencing ecommerce growth? Convenience, price and selection Consumers find information, compare prices and access The Economy virtually limitless product After a burst of economic gains selection at anytime, from in January and February, job anywhere growth slowed to a trickle in March, raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in 2013 Waves of innovation Mobile, globalization, omnichannel capabilities, online marketplaces, personalization, expedited fulfillment, new business models Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 5. Mobile spending has begun to have an impact on ecommerce Tablet Share of Mcommerce Sales 2013 2017 62.5% 71.5% ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 6. US ecommerce is also starting to get a boost from international sales 2013 Asia Ecommerce Facts Asia-Pacific will surpass North America as the world’s biggest B2C ecommerce market B2C ecommerce sales in Asia- Pacific will grow more than 30% vs. 12.2% in North America China, India and Indonesia are driving the fast ecommerce growth in Asia-Pacific China, the primary driver of Asia- Pacific growth, will surpass Japan as the region’s largest B2C ecommerce market Note: B2C includes travel, digital downloads and event tickets sales Source: eMarketer, February 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 7. Comparative estimates of ecommerce sales growth range from 10% to 14% ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 8. Historically, research firms have been bearish in forecasting online sales ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 9. Ecommerce is gradually accounting for more of total retail sales Ecommerce is growing 2-3 times …and the result is rising faster than total retail sales online sales penetration rates Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 10. But thinking about channels as distinct entities ignores how consumers shop “At some point that breakdown becomes immeasurable and irrelevant.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Eric Best CEO Mercent “This notion of channel is almost melting away. What’s important is how different channels influence each other and how to attribute customer engagement across them.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Sean Cook CEO ShopVisible ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 11. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 12. The two largest product categories will account for 42.9% of total online sales in 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 13. A mix of larger and smaller online product categories will post the highest CAGRs from 2012-2017 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 14. Several categories exceed the online penetration rate of 6% for total retail ecommerce sales ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 15. Categories to watch: Apparel and accessories Market Position Low Medium High Size (billion) $54.2 Growth 17.2% Penetration 14% Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company Growth Enablers Body scanning technology Runway videos 360 degree product views Home try-on programs ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 16. Categories to watch: CPG (groceries and personal care) Market Position Low Medium High Size (billion) $18.3 Growth 15.2% Penetration 1-4% Source: eMarketer, Booz & Company Growth Enablers Automatic replenishment programs Broader product selection Faster and lower-cost delivery Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 17. Categories to watch: Autos and parts Market Position Low Medium High Size (billion) $25.5 Growth 9.2% Penetration <5% Source: eMarketer Growth Enablers In 2011, 35% of new vehicle buyers said they would buy a car online, up from 21% in 2009* Powerful car dealership lobby has blocked the sale of cars online Source: *Capgemini, Oct 2011 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 18. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales forecast retailers forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 19. Amazon is a powerful engine of ecommerce growth Amazon accounts for a large share of US online sales and is growing faster than ecommerce overall If 2012 sales included the gross merchandise value from third-party merchants, Amazon’s contribution to US ecommerce sales would be around 25%. Source: JMP Securities, March 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 20. Two Amazon growth engines: Prime and its third-party sellers marketplace Key Stats  Amazon said unit sales from its third- party sellers in the US increased more Membership (millions) than 40% over the 2011 holiday season 2011 4  Online marketplaces (e.g., Amazon, 2012 10 eBay, Rakuten and Sears) account for 27% online retail sales* 2017 25  Marketplaces introduce consumers to Annual Spend unfamiliar retailersand greater product Prime members $1,224 selection Non-members $505 Source: *ChannelAdvisor, 2012 Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 21. A number of major retail chains reported strong online sales growth Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 22. Factors attributed to strong growth  Reduced conflict between its stores and website by restructuring company by major brands—Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic —as opposed to by stores, online, outlets and international  Better website search and navigation  Richer product information  Richer visualization tools  Speedier order fulfillment and delivery  Increased coordination across digital and store channels  Upgraded mobile and online sites  Enhanced customer engagement features Source: Corporate earnings announcements as reported in Internet Retailer ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 23. Retailers attribute omnichannel initiatives with boosting sales growth Walgreens found that its omnichannel shoppers spend more than its single-channel shoppers Stores-only 1 Stores + Web 1 2 3 3-1/2 Stores + Web + Mobile 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Miguel, Almeida, VP of ecommerce at Walgreens at a session at Retails’ Big Show 2013, sponsored by the National Retail Federation ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 24. Roadmap of our journey Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 25. Current (not new) online buyers are driving the bulk of ecommerce sales growth Key Shopper/Buyer Stats CAGR (2012-2017) Shoppers 2.7% Buyers 3.8% 2013 Buyers as a % 82.2% of shoppers ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 26. Smartphones and tablets have become commonplace devices for buying online Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 27. By all estimates a strong majority of internet users make online purchases ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 28. Online buying is prevalent across all age cohorts Buyers 65+ will grow faster than any other group at a 7.3% CAGR from 2012-2017 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 29. Online spending is well distributed across household income segments ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 30. Impetus for spending more online: Personalization Survey Findings 41% of online shoppers buy more from retailers who send them personalized emails based on past browsing and buying behavior 39% purchase more on retail sites with product recommendations Source: The e-tailing group, sponsored by MyBuys, December 2012 Personalization Drives Online Sales at Sears Shop Your Way membership program, which offers personalized product offers based on customer shopping behavior and other characteristics, strongly contributed to:  25% boost in online sales for Q4 2012  17% increase for all of 2012 Source: Internet Retailer, March 2013 ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 31. Impetus for spending more online: Trust and security “Every year we see more consumers who were latecomers to online shopping trusting ecommerce.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Vineet Buch Group product manager Google “Free returns engender online trust by reducing the likelihood a consumer will have buyers’ remorse.” Source: eMarketer interview, March 2013 Jason Goldberg VP strategy Razorfish ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 32. What were the highlights of our journey? Product category forecast Shoppers Online Leading & buyers sales retailers forecast forecast ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 33. Takeaways  US retail ecommerce sales will increase at a 14% CAGR from 2012 to 2017  Mobile users’ share of US retail ecommerce sales will rise from 15% in 2013 to 25% by 2017  Ecommerce growth comes from current (not new) online buyers, who account for 73% of internet users  Apparel & accessories and CPG are large categories with strong online growth potential  All age groups partake in online buying, but those ages 65+ are the fastest growing cohort Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  • 35. Trend: Greater Need for Guidance when Shopping Online
  • 36. This is Where Needle Comes in
  • 37. Power of a Needler
  • 39. Guided Shopping Online Using Your Best Fans
  • 40. Learn more about mobile marketing with Q&A Session an eMarketer corporate subscription US Retail Ecommerce About 200 eMarketer reports are Outlook—What’s published each year. The following are Driving Growth a few recent ones you may be interested in: US Retail Ecommerce: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates Online User Reviews: Building Trust and Boosting Sales Shopping Cart Abandonment: New Ways of Looking at the Purchase Path Jeffrey Grau Retail Mobile Commerce Forecast: Shoppers Turn to You will receive an email Smartphones First tomorrow with a link to Multichannel Customer Service: Best Practices for view the deck and webinar recording. Building Retail Loyalty Sponsored by: To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products Needle 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com ©2013 eMarketer Inc.