Dr. San Bilal, ECDPM Committee on Economic Development, Finance and Trade ACP-EU Joint Parliamentary Assembly Brussels 4 December 2015

1. Continental Free Trade Area:
boosting intra-Africa trade
Dr San Bilal
Committee on Economic Development, Finance and Trade
ACP-EU Joint Parliamentary Assembly
Brussels 4 December 2015

2. Africa:
• Rising Africa narrative?
• End commodity boom?
• Economic transformation
• Improved business environment
• Towards deeper integration (linear
model?)
• Harmonisation of the RECs, TFTA &
CFTA
• Costly instability (Arab Spring, Mali, CAR,
CdI, Bokho Haram, Burkina, South Sudan…)
• EPAs
• Agenda 2063…
Changing African and global context
Global context:
• Globalisation
• Changing trade:
• WTO MC10 (Bali package)?
• Global Value Chains
• Aid for Trade
• Mega-trade deals (TTIP, TPP,
RCEP, FTAAP)
• Emerging countries, BRICS
• 2030 Agenda
• …

3. Challenges
• Diversity of interests (public/private,
national/regional, etc.) and power
• Low trade complementarity (similar
trade patterns)
• Costs of cooperation: agenda,
institutions, implementation
• Integration creates winners and
losers (compensation/distributive
mechanisms?)
• Credibility: implementation gap
Benefits and challenges of integration
Benefits
• Larger markets: facilitating
trade,
common/harmonised
rules, generating
economies of scale
• Economic solidarity,
convergence, stability
• pooling resources
• Higher international stand:
coalition, attractiveness
(FDI, trade)

4. Page 4 ECDPM

5. Diversity of RECs & more
• TFTA (COMESA-EAC-SADC)
• Other ROs: SACU (21), UEMOA(10), … IOC
TCI= Trade Complementarity Index at the time agreement signed (EC 42 in 1962; Mercosur 24 in 1994; NAFTA 58 in 1994; ideal
trading partners = 100
TCI
8
12
7
11

6. Source: www.regionswatch.blogspot.com, 2010
Regional Integration in Africa
• Low level of
intra Africa
trade
• On average:
13.1% in 2010
compared to
more that
60% in Europe
or 35% in
NAFTA
• Informal
economy/tra
de
Page 6 ECDPM

7. Africa “Thick” Borders

8. Enabling African Trade:
Africa’s performance in regional comparison

9. CFTA key steps
• Pan-Africanism
• African Economic Community: 1980 Lagos Plan of Action & 1991
Abuja treaty
• January 2012 Summit: Adoption of decision to establish a Pan-Africa
CFTA by 2017 + endorse the Action Plan for Boosting Intra-Africa
Trade (BIAT)
• June 2015 Summit: CFTA negotiations officially launched
• AU: CFTA by 2017; intra-Africa trade: 12% in 2013, double (24%) in
2022, and 50% in 2045…

10. © BIAT, 2012
Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA)

11. Boosting Intra African Trade (BIAT)
Action Plan: key pillars
• Trade policy
• Trade facilitation
• Trade-related Infrastructure
• Trade Finance
• Trade Information
• Factor market integration

12. Opportunities
• From vision to reality
• Strong focus on African intra-
trade / inter-RECs, creating
new dynamics
• Boost RECs integration
agenda
• Focus on trade facilitation,
NTBs/TBTs
• Part of Agenda 2063:
integrate trade in
development/transformation
agenda
Reality check: challenges & opportunities
Challenges
• Diverging & conflicting interests
among 54 African countries
• Slow progress of COMESA-EAC-
SADC TFTA: easier to agree on
principles than concrete
liberalisation commitments
• Coherence with other RECs
• Capacity and implementation
constraints
• 2017 deadline likely to be missed

13. The ACP dimension of the CFTA
• Exchange of experiences on integration
• Coherence of EPAs, to promote, not undermine regional
integration
• All-ACP trade-related concerns and capacity building
• Political momentum: RECs, AU, ACP
= politics matter most!
• Part of All-ACP Trade Cooperation Framework

14. Thank you
www.ecdpm.org
Page
14
Dr San Bilal
Senior Executive
Head of the Economic Transformation and Trade Programme
Editor of ECDPM GREAT Insights (http://ecdpm.org/great-insights/ )
Brussels office
E-mail: sb@ecdpm.org Twitter @SanBilal1
http://ecdpm.org/people/sanbilal/
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