Whole energy system transition implies both complex processes of socio-technical change and complex sets of public values. Making sense of what may happen (the future ‘possibility space’) and what is at stake (the ‘issue space’) are social tasks to which, as science and technology studies (STS) scholars have argued, future imaginaries contribute resources. Such imaginaries provide symbolic templates (Mordini 2007) for understanding possible futures. Often such imaginaries have been associated with single technologies. STS has mapped numerous examples in relation to energy, such as nuclear and all-electric futures. The complexity of a coming renewables-based transition, however, mobilises imaginaries that include within them multiple energy vectors, the governance of the energy system, and the role of publics and other stakeholders. To explore these whole-system imaginaries, we report on interviews undertaken with academic engineering experts and others involved in demonstrator project delivery working on the ERDF-funded Flexis project in South Wales, UK (http://flexis.wales). Despite there being much shared common ground, in the shape of a whole systems imaginary of decentralisation, this brings with it a complex space of possibilities within which different socio-technical constellations can be imagined. These constellations have characteristics with very different implications for energy research and energy policy.

1. ISLANDED, CONNECTED, VISIBLE,
INTANGIBLE? MAPPING EXPERT
IMAGINARIES OF WHOLE
ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSITION
DR CHRISTOPHER GROVES*
DR ERIN ROBERTS
DR FIONA SHIRANI
PROF KAREN HENWOOD
PROF. NICK PIDGEON
UNDERSTANDING RISK GROUP & FLEXIS PROJECT,
CARDIFF UNIVERSITY, UK
*GROVESC1@CF.AC.UK

2. ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSITION:
BEYOND INDIVIDUAL TECHNOLOGIES
Source: iinergy.com.au
Traditional technological visions and “heroic narratives” (Janda and
Topouzi 2015)

3. SOCIAL SCIENCE AND WHOLE
ENERGY SYSTEM CHANGE: THE
FLEXIS PROJECT
• Flexis project: 2016-2021
• Engineers from Cardiff, Swansea,
South Wales universities
• Welsh Government support,
partnership with local councils and
businesses (e.g. Tata Steel)
• Social science focus: investigating
how experts and publics make sense
of and evaluate promises of whole
energy system change
• Central role for demonstrator projects
within South Wales communities
http://flexis.wales
Goal of social science &
engineering
collaboration:
developing a
Responsible Research
and Innovation (RRI)
framework for energy
systems transitions

4. DEMONSTRATORS AS
TECHNOLOGICAL NICHES
• Influence of niches on system level change widely studied (Schot
and Geels 2008)
• Role of future visions in creating influence (Smith and Raven
2012)
• Our work: interviews 20 experts associated with the Flexis project
to explore how visions for demonstrator projects are evolving
• Visions are characterised by equivocality (Daft and Lengel 1986)
– result of
• complex sets of values & priorities implicated in visions
• uncertainties about how these priorities relate to each other
• Shift from heroic narratives focused on single technologies as
drivers of change to social learning narratives focused on
complexity Janda and Topouzi 2015)

5. RESEARCH SCOPE
• 20 interviews with experts conducted between October 2016
and April 2017
• Interviewees included
• Engineers from Cardiff, Swansea, South Wales universities
• Partners from local authorities (Bridgend)
• Partners from Welsh Government
• Collaborators from industry (multinationals and SMEs)
• Focus on mapping visions but also the imaginaries underlying
visions (key assumptions and priorities)
• Imaginaries enable consensus around visions but also may
prevent reflexive questioning of priorities (Kemp, Schot and
Hoogma 1998)

6. THE ENERGY TRILEMMA AND
DECENTRALISATION
“It’s a capacity of the Grid but also the
ability to deal with fluctuations and the
thermal loads on the cables and
everything […] a lot of the areas in
Wales I guess the rest of the country
are at capacity, so if you want to
connect to the Grid you have to
reinforce the Grid […] So if we can look
more at these local energy supply
systems, so when we develop new
industry we develop the energy
systems to go with it, wind or solar or
whatever. We can take the load you
know the stress off the Grid.”
Expert 13
Sustainability
(Decarbonisation)
Cost
Security

7. FLEXIS IMAGINARIES:
DECENTRALISATION AS
POSSIBILITY SPACE
“I think in the future it’s going to be much more on a
local scale because you’re going to be generating
locally and then it’s those neighbourhoods need to …
it’s a bit like back to your ant colony I guess or
something like that or a beehive right? Each individual
entity has to control its own destiny but on the other
hand it’s also there to interact with the next one along
so there is a relationship and how big that node is
could be ten houses, could be a hundred houses or a
thousand houses… it depends.”
Expert 6

8. FLEXIS IMAGINARIES: VARIATION
ACROSS THE POSSIBILITY SPACE
‘Interpretive flexibility’ (Pinch and Bijker 1987)

9. ISLANDING/INTERCONNECTION
ISLANDING
“I think it’s going to be more localised and I am
not talking from an energy expert point of view
here, more from a learning on the job if you know
what I mean and sort of my involvement in things
over the years but not as an expert. I get the
feeling it’s going to be more localised where
energy is delivered within a region, whatever the
size of the region is I’m not sure but rather than it
being, and it could be sub regions within the
region for instance, very much finding out about
smaller communities especially rural communities
trying to look after themselves with hydro as well
as wind and solar.”
“[…] given the right funding it’s not unreasonable
to have the whole of Swansea effectively off Grid
in ten years.”
Expert 8
INTERCONNECTION
“Yeah, in terms of flexibility I mean the flexibility in
operational aspect of the power system, how to
manage the network to make it functional also in
the new context of the smart grid what I am going
to talk a little more about the flexibility of demand.
So normally we consider the demand as inflexible,
when you want to consume you consume but in the
future probably we are going to use more and more
renewables and they have a lot of uncertainties […]
So if we can achieve the energy balance in the
local area we use the less of the transmission line
using less of the assets will mitigate some issues
like with elimination in the network they have the
issue now we need to tackle.”
Expert 16

10. VISIBILITY/INTANGIBILITY
VISIBILITY/TANGIBILITY
[on community scale hydrogen storage
systems]: ‘Because these guys will have to
fill their tanks with water every other day,
they will have to manage the system, they
will get paid for every litre of hydrogen they
produce. Yes, this will be real interesting, I
am expecting these type of people to invite
their friends around and show them their
set-up and to brag about it and to have…to
have Green credentials. I have deliberately
built my water splitters so that you’ve got
bubbles coming up in clear tubes and they
look, they look crazy and scientific and it is
genuinely the sort of thing that you will
invite your friends over to show off, which is
something that’s positive.’.
Expert 8
INTANGIBILITY
[on peer-to-peer energy trading]: “I think one of
the key differences is that its self-enacting so if
you say in this set of circumstances I will transfer
the value of this asset to you then that will
happen and it will be done automatically whereas
I guess you could do that through sort of
traditional contract and some person would be an
intermediary somewhere so I guess that’s and
then you know to me it’s still an open question as
to what is actually better but it’s definitely an
interesting thing to say ok you know it’s definitely
worth exploring.”
Expert 17

11. INTERPRETIVE FLEXIBILITY AND
TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN SYSTEMS

12. INTERPRETIVE FLEXIBILITY AND
TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN SYSTEMS

13. Relationships
with the public
Understanding
wider
community
needs can
contribute to de-
risking projects
Trust may be
hard to create,
particularly
given the nature
of some
demonstrators
Benefits may be
hard to
articulate in
ways that gain
trust
ROLE OF PUBLIC
VALUES &
POLITICAL CHOICE
EQUIVOCALITY ABOUT
VALUES
“No, no, I mean that Caerau
[minewater district heating
project] will only work if you
talk to people and you
understand what they value,
how they use it now […]
what is it that’s going to
make them think bloody hell
I want that in my house.”
Expert 3
“I think negative public feedback I
think is a massive risk I mean
particularly on the Caerau one,
largely because you know it only
needs a few, it’s a small community,
it only needs a few people to say my
house has never been as cold and
we’ll lose all credibility and any
chance of signing anybody else up.”
Expert 2

14. SUMMARY
• Flexis experts articulate visions for place-based demonstrators against
backdrop of system uncertainties
• The possibility space inhabited by these different visions is that of
decentralisation
• But what decentralisation means (and how different technologies may
come to be realised) is open to wide interpretive flexibility.
• Experts envisage public values and political choices as being vital
drivers, especially
• Politics of place
• Contribution of energy system to furthering other values
• Equivocality around public values suggests emergence of social
learning narratives accompanying visions of socio-technical
complexity
• What effect will this have on the anticipated role of demonstrators as
technological niches?

15. FLEXIS SOCIAL SCIENCE TEAM
Professor Nick Pidgeon
Professor Karen Henwood
Dr Fiona Shirani
Dr Erin Roberts
Dr Catherine Cherry
Dr Gareth Thomas
http://flexis.wales