Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change
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How Minnesota woodlands developed, what to expect in the future, and what landowners and the rest of us can do to detect change and act to maintain resilient, healthy woodlands. (Updated May 2011)
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Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change
- 1. Minnesota Woodlands and Climate Change Eli Sagor esagor@umn.edu March 2012
- 2. About this presentation Historic change: Context Expected future change Action-oriented: What you can do in your woods
- 3. All of the content is online Text, recording of this presentation, links: http://z.umn.edu/MWCC
- 4. What we’ll cover Section 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to be Section 2: Climate change projections and possible impacts Section 3: What woodland owners can do
- 5. Glacial history Four major periods Wisconsin glaciation 75,000-10,000 y.a. Covered most of Minnesota Creative Commons licensed Flickr photo by Paul Keller
- 6. ©University of Minnesota Press: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.9
- 7. Post-glacial landscape Barren glacial till, little life present Creative Commons licensed Flickr photo by Terekhova
- 8. Soil slowly forms Climate Organic matter inputs Chemical weathering Creative Commons licensed Flickr photo by Thomas Ormston
- 9. © University of Minnesota Press: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6
- 10. Source: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.22
- 11. Laurentian mixed forest Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
- 12. Eastern broadleaf forest Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
- 13. Prairie parkland Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
- 14. Minnesota’s 4 biomes Aspen Parklands Laurentian Mixed Forest Prairie Eastern Parklands Broadleaf Forest
- 15. More info on Minnesota’s biomes MN DNR’s Ecological Classification System site http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ ecs Or Google “MN DNR ECS”
- 16. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty National Climatic Data Center Google “Pollen Viewer”
- 17. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 18. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 19. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 20. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 21. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 22. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 23. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 24. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 25. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 26. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 27. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 28. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 29. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 30. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 31. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 32. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 33. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 34. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 35. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 36. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 37. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 38. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 39. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty
- 40. Human impacts since 19th c. American Indian: Burning Dispersed settlement
- 41. Human impacts European American, 19thc. - present PLSS and land conveyance: colonization Timber harvest: 1850s – 1920s Fires, then fire suppression Regrowth and sustainable management
- 42. Public Land Survey System and land conveyance
- 43. Timber harvest, 19th c. Minnesota Historical Society photo
- 44. Minnesota Historical Society photos
- 45. Minnesota Historical Society photo
- 46. Minnesota Historical Society photo
- 47. Minnesota forests are resilient
- 48. Review of Section 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to be Glaciers Four biomes Human impacts Active management ®rowth
- 49. What we’ll cover Section 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to be Section 2: Climate change projections and possible impacts Section 3: What woodland owners can do
- 50. Greenhouse gas concentrations, past 2000 years IPCC 2007: AR4, WG1, FAQ 2.1
- 51. Earth’s surface temp, 1880-2009 Blue line = average temp 1950-1980 NASA GISS
- 52. MN annual temperature history 1895- 2007
- 53. MN seasonal temperature history 1895- 2007
- 54. NASA: 10 warmest years
- 56. Impacts on Minnesota woodlands
- 57. How these slides work Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
- 58. Range shifts: Red oak FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
- 59. Range shifts: White pine FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
- 60. Range shifts: Trembling aspen FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
- 61. Range shifts: forest types FIA current 100-yr prediction (average of 5 models) Source: USFS Climate Change Atlas for Northeast US Tree Species: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/
- 62. 2095 seasonal climate comparisons Union of Concerned Scientists report: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/pd f/minnesota.pdf
- 63. Bottom line: Most ranges shift to the north and east
- 64. How changes will affect woodlands LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts...
- 65. How changes will affect woodlands LIKELY: Longer, more severe droughts... …and more frequent catastrophic events Minnesota DNR photo Source: www.forestryimages.org
- 66. How changes will affect woodlands Longer, more severe droughts... …and more frequent catastrophic events Decline in vigor and resilience of native stands Photo by Dave Hanson, UMN Extension CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
- 67. How changes will affect woodlands Decline in vigor and resilience of native stands Lots of new growing space not well suited to current species Photo by Joseph O’Brien, USDA Forest Service www.forestryimages.org
- 68. How changes will affect woodlands Lots of new growing space not well suited to current species More invasive species (and other non-natives)
- 69. Greatest change near the border Left: © University of Minnesota Press: J. Tester, 1995. Fig. 1.6 Right: MN DNR map image
- 70. Review of Section 2: Climate change projections and possible impacts About climate change Projected range shifts Possible impact scenarios
- 71. What we’ll cover Section 1: How Minnesota’s current forests came to be Section 2: Climate change projections and possible impacts Section 3: What woodland owners can do
- 72. Background: Climate change ecology Three strategies: 1. Resistance 2. Resilience 3. Facilitation Galatowitsch et al, 2009. Download from http://z.umn.edu/climatestrat
- 73. Strategy 1: Resistance Actions: Increasing water supply, reducing herbivory & invasive species, fighting insect and disease outbreaks, manipulating disturbance regimes. Photo by Patrick Lanham on Flickr. Used with permission.
- 74. Strategy: Resistance Action: Monitor Notice changes: Insect outbreaks, dieback, mortality New regeneration, improved growth Invasive species Keep good records!
- 75. Strategy: Resistance Action: When you notice change, act on it! Deal with insect & disease threats. Notice new species moving in. Consider removing them. Photo: Lee Frelich CURA Reporter, Jan/Feb 2010
- 76. Strategy: Resilience Actions: Maintain species and age class diversity, maintain vigor and health, reduce fragmentation.
- 77. Strategy: Resilience Action: Thinning & stand improvement Thinning your woods
- 78. Strategy: Resilience Action: Eradicate Eradicate or control insects, disease, and invasives
- 79. Strategy: Resilience Action: Diversify species & ages Underplant from your property or nearby. Maintain variety of age classes.
- 80. Strategy 3: Facilitation “Actions to mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal, colonization, and disturbance.” CAUTION! Photo by Bankshot on Flickr. Used with permission.
- 81. Pollen Viewer American Indian lands by treaty Slide source: Lee Frelich, UMN-FR
- 82. Strategy: Facilitation Action: Professional assistance Moving species has caused huge problems: Buckthorn. Moving native species from within the region carries less risk. Be careful! Photo by Bankshot on Flickr. Used with permission.
- 83. Strategy: Facilitation Action: Keep forest land forested Trees are made of atmospheric carbon Growing trees remove carbon from the atmosphere Soil & water protection, wildlife habitat
- 85. Review of Section 3: What woodland owners can do Strategies and actions: 1. Resistance: Monitor, record, remove invaders 2. Resilience: Thin, eradicate, maintain diversity 3. Facilitation: Keep forest land forested, work with a professional
- 86. Bottom line Woodland owners have a tremendous stewardship opportunity and responsibility.
- 87. For more information: Slides and recording: http://z.umn.edu/MWCC Eli Sagor esagor@umn.edu
Notes de l'éditeur
- Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth
- Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth
- Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth
- Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulk/82801769/
- http://www.flickr.com/photos/terekhova/2434108621/
- Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/thomas_ormston/1506395669/
- About climate changeProjected range shiftsPossible impact scenarios
- Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 2, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1. Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (Data combined and simplified from Chapters 6 and 2 of this report.)URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
- http://www.ipcc.ch/
- Caption in original: “Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)” Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
- Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual temperature history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Clearly shows a warming trend in past 25 years.
- Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s seasonal temperature history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Warming more pronounced/consistent in past 25 years than before.
- Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual precipitation history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Seasonal differences less pronounced for precip than temp.
- Slide from Mark Seeley showing Minnesota’s annual precipitation history with 5-year tendencies (moving averages). Seasonal differences less pronounced for precipthan temp.
- Source: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2008_temps.htmlNext: How changes will affect daily life.
- http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20D17FA3C550C708CDDAA0894DF404482Next: Models
- “[A]ctions… that oppose changes associated with a shifting climate, will be most useful for overcoming small magnitudes of climate change… [or]… to save native species for the short term.”
- Conservation Volunteer: “A resilience strategy seeks to boost a forest's immune system through diversity—mixed tree and plant species, and mixed stands of young, mature, and old trees.”
- Galatowitsch et al 2009: “Facilitation actions could ‘‘mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes” (Millar et al., 2007). The high level of fragmentation in southern Minnesota and southward into Iowa means that many immigrating colonists may not accomplish range shifts without assistance if they cannot adapt in place. Landscape corridors, often touted as a way to foster range shifts, are unlikely to be an effective strategy for much of Minnesota given the amount of acquisition and restoration required to create corridors through agricultural landscapes and the low probability that many plant species will jump to these corridors and move at a rate that keeps pace with climate change.”
- Galatowitsch et al 2009: “Facilitation actions could ‘‘mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes” (Millar et al., 2007). The high level of fragmentation in southern Minnesota and southward into Iowa means that many immigrating colonists may not accomplish range shifts without assistance if they cannot adapt in place. Landscape corridors, often touted as a way to foster range shifts, are unlikely to be an effective strategy for much of Minnesota given the amount of acquisition and restoration required to create corridors through agricultural landscapes and the low probability that many plant species will jump to these corridors and move at a rate that keeps pace with climate change.”
- Glacial historyFour biomesHuman impactsActive management & regrowth