This document discusses emerging trends in technology, business, and society that are driving changes in how value is created and knowledge is shared. These trends include the rise of mobile access, cloud computing, big data, 3D printing, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, crowdfunding, and sharing platforms. Existing institutions and organizations face challenges in keeping up with the pace of change enabled by new technologies and more collaborative/open models of innovation. Questions are raised about how assumptions around value creation and money may need to change in the future.

1. October 2014
www.hhs.se

2. Who am I? (LinkedIn Inmaps)
Swedish
Industry
SSE
Exec Ed
Research
Wharton
Stanford
McKinsey
vonorange.com

3. Then…
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

4. …Now
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

6. History tends to repeat itself….
Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, …
Steam
engine
Internal
combustion
engine
Microelectronics
Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C
Schön 2008
Third
industrial
revolution?

7. People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Knowledge via MOOCs
• Sharing not consuming
• Sustainability
Technology
• Broadband access
• The Cloud
• Mobile phones
• Internet of Things
• Big Data
• 3D printing
• Robotics/AI
• VR/AR
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P
• Non-fiat cryptocurrencies
• Mobile money/payments

8. No one knows everything,
everyone knows something,
all knowledge resides in nheutmwaonrkitsy..
Six degrees of
separation
- Milgram, 1967
Adapted from Lévy 1997

9. What’s happening today?
24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing
$60,000
$150
Available for free
download on
http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/
Where is
the firm?

10. Bitcoin = The power of community +
open source + internet + CPU
• Developed by self-organizing community of thousands of
“strangers” across globe
• Not one but many motivations (intrinsic, extrinsic)
• 91 bln SEK in circulation vs SEK 36 bln of Bitcoin in five years
• Approx USD 5 bln in circulation (Oct 2014) and 70,000 daily
transactions
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707

11. ”Bitcoin has made me interested in
issues like finance and money – things
that I never thought about before. Now
I am really curious and questioning
why things are the way they are in the
finance world….and wondering what
can I do to change them.”
- Bitcoin 2014 Conference Attendee

12. Rise of local currencies

13. The genie is
out of the bottle….

14. Global platform for local community collaboration
Launched June 2010
USD 17 bln valuation
43 countries globally
Uber
Limited physical assets
UberPop, Uber Rush, ??

16. IoT + Smartphones + Bitcoin protocol = ?
IoT
connecting
everything
Android
smartphones
<USD 50
Bitcoin protocol
enabling global
property transfers

17. If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of change on
the inside, the end is near....
-Jack Welch

18. Many are stuck in our old ways …

19. Increasing pace of change
 From 1920s to 2010s
− Average lifespan of S&P 500 company fell from 67
years to 15 years
 From 2000 to 2010
− 40% of companies on Fortune 500 list replaced
 Predictions
− In next few years, 70% of Fortune 1000 companies to
be replaced
− By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 companies do not exist
today
− By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 companies to be from
emerging markets
Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc

20. In just a few years in Sweden alone…
Company Founded Business
Klarna 2005 E-commerce payment services
MyLoan 2006 Loan broker
Trustly 2008 Online payments
TrustBuddy 2009 P2P lending
iZettle 2010 Mobile payments
FundedByMe 2011 Crowdfunding, crowd equity
Kivra 2011 Digital mailbox
Tink 2012 Personal finance
Safello 2013 Cryptocurrency exchange
KnCMiner 2013 Cryptocurrency mining equipment
Toborrow 2013 P2P lending for companies

21. http://techcrunch.com/2014/09/04/kncminer-raises-14-million-to-take-bitcoin-mining-to-the-moon/

22. Banks’ share of wallet is rapidly shrinking
International Entrepreneurs
Nordic Entrepreneurs
Nordic Banks
Pay, Save,
Lend, Insure

23. Four forms of crowdfunding
Form Benefits for funders
Donation-based Donation Intangible benefits.
Reward-based
Donation or pre-purchase
Rewards in addition to intangible
benefits.
Equity-based Investment
Return on investment if company
does well. Rewards sometimes also
offered and intangible benefits may
motivate too.
Debt-based Loan
Repayment of loan with interest.
Alternatively intangible benefits if loan
given interest-free.
Ingram & Teigland 2013

24. Measuring demand in advance

25. How big is crowdfunding?
 Global crowdfunding almost doubled 2012 to
2013 to USD 5.1 bln
 March 2014 Kickstarter passed USD 1 bln in
total pledges
 FundedByMe raised USD 10.5 mln to date
 Swedish market to be SEK 100 mln in 2014
 By 2025 global crowdfunding could reach USD
90 to 96 bln (1.8 times today’s global VC
industry)
 Growth potential greatest in emerging markets?
USD 50 bln in China by 2025?

27. Toborrow.se

28. Democratizing innovation
through access to capital?
Women in USA
 <30% of business owners
 <15% of angel investors
 <10% of venture capitalists
But…
Women on Kickstarter
 35% of project leaders
 44% of investors on platform
 >40% of projects women invested in had female
project leaders
Marom, Robb and Sade 2014

29. Democratizing innovation
through access to capital
Kickstarter
• Women 13% more likely to to meet
crowdfunding goals than men
• 67% of women-led technology
ventures reached goals vs 30% of
male-led ventures
Indiegogo
• Women 61% more likely than men
to meet goals
• Women account for 41% of projects
that meet goals
http://online.wsj.com/articles/kickstarter-closes-the-funding-gap-for-women-1407949759

30. “Made in Africa” 3D printer (Togo)
crowdfunded through Ulele
Winner of International
Space Apps Challenge
http://www.engineering.com/3DPrinting/3DPrintingArticles/ArticleID/5712/E-Waste-3D-Printer-to-Mars.aspx

31. DIY 3D printing becoming more commonplace…
http://openfabpdx.com/fffiddle/

33. Innovation in automotive design/production
“Local Motors is the place for people to create
influential vehicles together.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azCRuwtE_n0

34. Models of Knowledge Creation
The Firm
E.g., Microsoft
~ Built by employees within
organizational boundaries
vs The Collective
E.g., OpenSimulator
~ Built by users and distributed
freely regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012

35. OpenSimulator: A value-creation ecosystem
Academic
Entrepreneur
Hobbyist
Large Firm
Non-profit
Local Public
Federal Public
Research Inst
SME Employee
Periphery
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
USD 5.5mln in
development costs

36. From the mobility of goods
to the mobility of financial capital to …
Teigland, JVWR, 2010
...the “mobility” of labor?

37. Knowledge becomes quickly outdated
Ray Kurzweil, Singularity Institute

38. Thomas Jefferson (1816)
“Laws and institutions must go hand in hand
with the progress of the human mind.”
The problem is that the human mind itself
can’t keep pace with the advances that
computers are enabling.
http://wadhwa.com/2014/04/15/mit-technology-review-laws-and-ethics-cant-keep-pace-with-technology/

39. http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2014/09/should-robots-have-their-own-bank-accounts/

40. Institutions
Challenges to institutions?
Emergent Collective
E.g., Central Bank
~ Long-standing financial
institutions and regulations
vs
E.g., Bitcoin Community
~ Emergent collective of users across
globe connected through internet
Teigland, Yetis, Larsson, 2013
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707

41. Some questions…
 What basic assumptions about value creation will
no longer hold?
 What opportunities are there related to the future
of money, collaborative innovation, and the sharing
economy?
 What strategic challenges are there within the
nearest 2-3 years in connection with the future of
money, collaborative innovation, and the sharing
economy?
 What will you do tomorrow as a result of today’s
discussion?

42. The future is already here,
it’s just not very evenly
distributed.
- William Gibson

43. If you love knowledge,
set it free…
Robin Teigland
robin.teigland@hhs.se
www.knowledgenetworking.org
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
www.nordicworlds.net
@RobinTeigland
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