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ANWR - Oil or Wilderness?

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Oil or Wilderness?
The case represents the ANWR dispute between natural resource development advocates and proponents of wilderness protection.

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ANWR - Oil or Wilderness?

  1. 1. 24 September 2012 Adelaide Group 2: THIEN HUONG Do MINH THUAN Nguyen THI TAM Duong
  2. 2. OUTLINE 1.  Executive summary 2.  Summary of Decisions 3.  Description of Context 4.  Stakeholder Analysis 5.  Decision Criteria and Metrics 6.  Data/Facts/Modelling 7.  Analysis of Alternatives 8.  Recommendations 9.  Sensitivity Analysis
  3. 3. " Executive Summary" •  Background: The case represents the ANWR dispute between natural resource development advocates and proponents of wilderness protection. •  Implication: The decision will have strong impact on consumers’ behaviours and reduce the oil consumption. •  Recommendations: Apply higher fuel efficiency standards
  4. 4. What solutions should be taken to reduce oil consumption?
  5. 5. Summary of Decisions We stand on the position of environmentalists •  Drilling Proponents: Took advantage of Policy Window, capitalized on focusing events, called for drilling under the name of job creation and national defence •  Drilling Opponents: Highlighted the self-interest motives and disguided huge profits, re-estimated the economic and security values and the catastrophic ecological impact of oil development in the refuge. •  Congress: Integrated ANWR in legislation process
  6. 6. Description of Context 1980 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1995 1997 2003-2004 2005 2007 Congress enacted ANILCA which triggered the debate. GULF WAR EIS was circulated by Interior Department 7 bills about ANWR development Approved ANWR oil and gas leasing bill 1st Energy Crisis Revised estimate of finding oil in ANWR; October: prohibit drilling Opening refuge is assumed Artic Power has contract with Washington D.C Two sides rely on experts’ analysis Policy window: Approval of ANWR President Obama approved an increase in CAFE standard 2nd Energy Crisis Year of big events
  7. 7. Stakeholder Analysis Stakeholders  Groups   Representa2ves   Goals   Drilling  opponents   •  Alaska  Coali*on   •  Conserve  the  wilderness  of  Alaska   •  Environmental  groups   •  Protect  environment  and  wildlife   •  Supporters/  Allies   habitat   •  Gwich’in  Eskimos   •  Canadian  government   Drilling  proponents   •  Oil  and  gas  companies   •  Earn  more  profit     •  Inupiat  Eskimos   •  Preserve  na*onal  security   •  Lobbying  organiza*ons   •  Boost  economy   •  Auto  industy     •  Minimize  oil  reliance     •  Electric  U*li*es     •  New  jobs  crea*on   •  Ease  federal  deficit   Governments   •  State  government   •  Generate  more  revenue     •  Interior  Department   •  Protect  environment     •  Congress   •  Stabilize  na*onal  energy  demand  and   supply     Americans   •  American  consumers   •  Low  prices  for  oil  and  gas   •  Increase  fuel  efficiency   •  Support  renewable  energy  
  8. 8. Decision Criteria and Metrics (Our analysis based on the following indices of performance) Decision criteria Justifications Metrics •  Reserve the geographical diverse •  Number of acres of ANWR •  No. of wildlife animals 1.Environmental •  Reduce the impacts from oil •  No. of affected trees and animals conservation exploitation and side-effects on •  Environmental indexes (air, nature water…) •  Creating jobs •  No. of new jobs •  Increase domestic oil production •  Revenue streams •  Enhance national security •  Contribution to federal/state 2. Economic development budget per year •  Oil gallon produced per year •  Oil gallon imported per year •  Conservation of ANWR would •  No. of Senates approved please those who advocate •  No. of Senates disapproved environment 3. Political dimensions •  Opening drilling would make those who support oil companies happy •  Americans’ interests towards •  No. of public polls environmental issues and oil •  Gallon of oil and gas consumed 4. Public attitudes consumption yearly
  9. 9. Data/Facts/Modelling Environmental We analyze the fact conservation based on environmentalists' viewpoints. Determine Economic •  P: Probability of weight of development Alternatives factors for •  U: Utility Value of decision Alternative making •  PnUn: Total sum of Political multiple of utility dimensions value and probability of each alternative The best option will Public attitudes have the highest utility values
  10. 10. Analysis of Alternatives Alternative 1: Apply higher fuel efficiency standards o  Reduce the total gas consumption o  Change consumers’ behaviour to energy consumption Alternative 2: Invest in renewable energy technologies o  Reduce the oil reliance on foreigners o  Reduce the burden on domestic oil exploitation Alternative 3: Mobilize public participation about environment o  Based on the major events and proactive media involvement
  11. 11. MAUT Analysis Alternative p1 U1 p2 U2 p3 U3 p4 U4 PnWn s Environ 1 0.95 1 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 0.8 0 1.99 mentali sts 2 0.95 0 0.4 1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.44 3 0.95 0.8 0.4 0 0.5 0 0.8 1 1.56 Oil and 1 0.5 0 0.95 1 0.6 1 0.5 0 1.55 gas industr 2 0.5 0.2 0.95 0.2 0.6 0 0.5 0.7 0.64 y 3 0.5 1 0.95 0 0.6 0.3 0.5 1 1.18 Politici 1 0.5 1 0.5 0.7 0.95 1 0.7 0 1.8 ans 2 0.5 0 0.5 1 0.95 0 0.7 0.4 0.78 3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0 0.95 0.5 0.7 1 1.275 Best possible alternative: Alternative 1 (Apply higher fuel efficiency standards)
  12. 12. Recommendations •  We should apply higher fuel efficiency standards (Alternative 1) –  Prepare strong back up by reliable and scientific data –  Before employing the new fuel efficiency standards, surveys about possible reaction should be carried out. –  Campaigns to educate/change consumer behaviours should be made a national focus and intensively involve media. –  It also needs supports and commitment from different government levels.
  13. 13. Sensitivity Analysis •  Auto and Energy Industries might shake hand to fight against unfavourable Industry standards (E.g: CAFE) •  American may strongly oppose to the new requirement about fuel efficiency. •  The Utility Model based on the subjective approach from environmentalists’ perspective. It may generate different results from others’ point of views. •  The recommendation may be challenged if not being backed up by scientific and reliable statistic data.
  14. 14. Thank  you!  

Oil or Wilderness? The case represents the ANWR dispute between natural resource development advocates and proponents of wilderness protection.

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