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24 September 2012




 Adelaide Group 2:
 THIEN HUONG Do
MINH THUAN Nguyen
   THI TAM Duong
OUTLINE
1.  Executive summary
2.  Summary of Decisions
3.  Description of Context
4.  Stakeholder Analysis
5.  Decision Criteria and Metrics
6.  Data/Facts/Modelling
7.  Analysis of Alternatives
8.  Recommendations
9.  Sensitivity Analysis
"
         Executive Summary"
                  
•  Background: The case represents the ANWR
   dispute between natural resource development
   advocates and proponents of wilderness
   protection.

•  Implication: The decision will have strong
   impact on consumers’ behaviours and reduce
   the oil consumption.

•  Recommendations: Apply higher fuel efficiency
   standards
What solutions should be taken to
   reduce oil consumption?
Summary of Decisions
        We stand on the position of environmentalists
                            
•  Drilling Proponents: Took advantage of Policy
   Window, capitalized on focusing events, called for
   drilling under the name of job creation and national
   defence

•  Drilling Opponents: Highlighted the self-interest
   motives and disguided huge profits, re-estimated the
   economic and security values and the catastrophic
   ecological impact of oil development in the refuge. 

•  Congress: Integrated ANWR in legislation process
Description of Context
   1980     1986     1987     1989    1990     1991      1995    1997    2003-2004      2005           2007 


Congress enacted ANILCA which triggered the debate. GULF WAR
            EIS was circulated by Interior Department
                    7 bills about ANWR development
                              Approved ANWR oil and gas leasing bill
                                      1st Energy Crisis 
                                               Revised estimate of finding oil in ANWR; October: prohibit drilling 
                                                         Opening refuge is assumed
                                                                 Artic Power has contract with Washington D.C
                                                                          Two sides rely on experts’ analysis


                                                                                       Policy window: Approval of ANWR

                                                                                                President Obama
                                                                                                approved an increase in
                                                                                                CAFE standard
                                                                                                2nd Energy Crisis 
       Year of big events
Stakeholder Analysis
  Stakeholders	
  Groups	
                      Representa2ves	
                                     Goals	
  

Drilling	
  opponents	
        •    Alaska	
  Coali*on	
                 •    Conserve	
  the	
  wilderness	
  of	
  Alaska	
  
                               •    Environmental	
  groups	
            •    Protect	
  environment	
  and	
  wildlife	
  
                               •    Supporters/	
  Allies	
                   habitat	
  
                               •    Gwich’in	
  Eskimos	
  
                               •    Canadian	
  government	
  
Drilling	
  proponents	
       •    Oil	
  and	
  gas	
  companies	
     •    Earn	
  more	
  profit	
  	
  
                               •    Inupiat	
  Eskimos	
                 •    Preserve	
  na*onal	
  security	
  
                               •    Lobbying	
  organiza*ons	
           •    Boost	
  economy	
  
                               •    Auto	
  industy	
  	
                •    Minimize	
  oil	
  reliance	
  	
  
                               •    Electric	
  U*li*es	
  	
            •    New	
  jobs	
  crea*on	
  
                                                                         •    Ease	
  federal	
  deficit	
  
Governments	
                  •    State	
  government	
                •    Generate	
  more	
  revenue	
  	
  
                               •    Interior	
  Department	
             •    Protect	
  environment	
  	
  
                               •    Congress	
                           •    Stabilize	
  na*onal	
  energy	
  demand	
  and	
  
                                                                              supply	
  	
  
Americans	
                    •    American	
  consumers	
              •    Low	
  prices	
  for	
  oil	
  and	
  gas	
  
                                                                         •    Increase	
  fuel	
  efficiency	
  
                                                                         •    Support	
  renewable	
  energy	
  
Decision Criteria and Metrics
          (Our analysis based on the following indices of performance)
          

  Decision criteria
                    Justifications
                                Metrics
                               •    Reserve the geographical diverse     •    Number of acres
                                    of ANWR 
                            •    No. of wildlife animals
1.Environmental
                               •    Reduce the impacts from oil          •    No. of affected trees and animals
conservation
                                    exploitation and side-effects on     •    Environmental indexes (air,
                                    nature 
                                  water…)
                               •    Creating jobs
                       •    No. of new jobs
                               •    Increase domestic oil production 
   •    Revenue streams
                               •    Enhance national security
           •    Contribution to federal/state
2. Economic development 
                                                     budget per year
                                                                         •    Oil gallon produced per year
                                                                         •    Oil gallon imported per year


                               •    Conservation of ANWR would           •    No. of Senates approved
                                    please those who advocate            •    No. of Senates disapproved 
                                    environment
3. Political dimensions
                               •    Opening drilling would make those
                                    who support oil companies happy
                               
                               •    Americans’ interests towards         •    No. of public polls
                                    environmental issues and oil         •    Gallon of oil and gas consumed
4. Public attitudes
                                    consumption
                              yearly
Data/Facts/Modelling
                  Environmental
                                      We analyze the fact
                  conservation 
      based on
                                      environmentalists'
                                      viewpoints. 
                                      
Determine         Economic            •  P: Probability of
weight of         development
           Alternatives
factors for                           •  U: Utility Value of
decision                                 Alternative
making
                               •  PnUn: Total sum of
                  Political              multiple of utility
                  dimensions 
           value and probability
                                         of each alternative

                                      The best option will
                  Public attitudes
   have the highest utility
                                      values
Analysis of Alternatives
Alternative 1: Apply higher fuel efficiency standards
o  Reduce the total gas consumption
o  Change consumers’ behaviour to energy consumption
Alternative 2: Invest in renewable energy technologies
o  Reduce the oil reliance on foreigners
o  Reduce the burden on domestic oil exploitation
Alternative 3: Mobilize public participation about
environment
o  Based on the major events and proactive media involvement
MAUT Analysis
            Alternative   p1
     U1
     p2
      U2
      p3
      U3
     p4
      U4
     PnWn
            s
Environ          1
       0.95
     1
     0.4
      0.6
    0.5
      1
      0.8
     0
    1.99
mentali
sts
                 2
       0.95
     0
     0.4
       1
     0.5
     0.8
     0.8
    0.8
   1.44


                 3
       0.95
    0.8
    0.4
       0
     0.5
      0
      0.8
     1
    1.56


Oil and          1
       0.5
      0
     0.95
      1
     0.6
      1
      0.5
     0
    1.55
gas
industr
                 2
       0.5
     0.2
    0.95
     0.2
    0.6
      0
      0.5
    0.7
   0.64
y

                 3
       0.5
      1
     0.95
      0
     0.6
     0.3
     0.5
     1
     1.18


Politici         1
       0.5
      1
     0.5
      0.7
    0.95
     1
      0.7
     0
     1.8
ans

                 2
       0.5
      0
     0.5
       1
     0.95
     0
      0.7
    0.4
   0.78


                 3
       0.5
     0.2
    0.5
       0
     0.95
    0.5
     0.7
     1
    1.275

           Best possible alternative: Alternative 1 (Apply higher fuel efficiency standards)
Recommendations
•  We should apply higher fuel efficiency standards
  (Alternative 1)
   –  Prepare strong back up by reliable and scientific data 

   –  Before employing the new fuel efficiency standards, surveys about
     possible reaction should be carried out.

   –  Campaigns to educate/change consumer behaviours should be made a
     national focus and intensively involve media.

   –  It also needs supports and commitment from different government
     levels.
Sensitivity Analysis
•  Auto and Energy Industries might shake hand to fight against
   unfavourable Industry standards (E.g: CAFE) 
•  American may strongly oppose to the new requirement about
   fuel efficiency.
•  The Utility Model based on the subjective approach from
   environmentalists’ perspective. It may generate different
   results from others’ point of views.
•  The recommendation may be challenged if not being backed up
   by scientific and reliable statistic data.
Thank	
  you!	
  

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ANWR - Oil or Wilderness?

  • 1. 24 September 2012 Adelaide Group 2: THIEN HUONG Do MINH THUAN Nguyen THI TAM Duong
  • 2. OUTLINE 1.  Executive summary 2.  Summary of Decisions 3.  Description of Context 4.  Stakeholder Analysis 5.  Decision Criteria and Metrics 6.  Data/Facts/Modelling 7.  Analysis of Alternatives 8.  Recommendations 9.  Sensitivity Analysis
  • 3. " Executive Summary" •  Background: The case represents the ANWR dispute between natural resource development advocates and proponents of wilderness protection. •  Implication: The decision will have strong impact on consumers’ behaviours and reduce the oil consumption. •  Recommendations: Apply higher fuel efficiency standards
  • 4. What solutions should be taken to reduce oil consumption?
  • 5. Summary of Decisions We stand on the position of environmentalists •  Drilling Proponents: Took advantage of Policy Window, capitalized on focusing events, called for drilling under the name of job creation and national defence •  Drilling Opponents: Highlighted the self-interest motives and disguided huge profits, re-estimated the economic and security values and the catastrophic ecological impact of oil development in the refuge. •  Congress: Integrated ANWR in legislation process
  • 6. Description of Context 1980 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1995 1997 2003-2004 2005 2007 Congress enacted ANILCA which triggered the debate. GULF WAR EIS was circulated by Interior Department 7 bills about ANWR development Approved ANWR oil and gas leasing bill 1st Energy Crisis Revised estimate of finding oil in ANWR; October: prohibit drilling Opening refuge is assumed Artic Power has contract with Washington D.C Two sides rely on experts’ analysis Policy window: Approval of ANWR President Obama approved an increase in CAFE standard 2nd Energy Crisis Year of big events
  • 7. Stakeholder Analysis Stakeholders  Groups   Representa2ves   Goals   Drilling  opponents   •  Alaska  Coali*on   •  Conserve  the  wilderness  of  Alaska   •  Environmental  groups   •  Protect  environment  and  wildlife   •  Supporters/  Allies   habitat   •  Gwich’in  Eskimos   •  Canadian  government   Drilling  proponents   •  Oil  and  gas  companies   •  Earn  more  profit     •  Inupiat  Eskimos   •  Preserve  na*onal  security   •  Lobbying  organiza*ons   •  Boost  economy   •  Auto  industy     •  Minimize  oil  reliance     •  Electric  U*li*es     •  New  jobs  crea*on   •  Ease  federal  deficit   Governments   •  State  government   •  Generate  more  revenue     •  Interior  Department   •  Protect  environment     •  Congress   •  Stabilize  na*onal  energy  demand  and   supply     Americans   •  American  consumers   •  Low  prices  for  oil  and  gas   •  Increase  fuel  efficiency   •  Support  renewable  energy  
  • 8. Decision Criteria and Metrics (Our analysis based on the following indices of performance) Decision criteria Justifications Metrics •  Reserve the geographical diverse •  Number of acres of ANWR •  No. of wildlife animals 1.Environmental •  Reduce the impacts from oil •  No. of affected trees and animals conservation exploitation and side-effects on •  Environmental indexes (air, nature water…) •  Creating jobs •  No. of new jobs •  Increase domestic oil production •  Revenue streams •  Enhance national security •  Contribution to federal/state 2. Economic development budget per year •  Oil gallon produced per year •  Oil gallon imported per year •  Conservation of ANWR would •  No. of Senates approved please those who advocate •  No. of Senates disapproved environment 3. Political dimensions •  Opening drilling would make those who support oil companies happy •  Americans’ interests towards •  No. of public polls environmental issues and oil •  Gallon of oil and gas consumed 4. Public attitudes consumption yearly
  • 9. Data/Facts/Modelling Environmental We analyze the fact conservation based on environmentalists' viewpoints. Determine Economic •  P: Probability of weight of development Alternatives factors for •  U: Utility Value of decision Alternative making •  PnUn: Total sum of Political multiple of utility dimensions value and probability of each alternative The best option will Public attitudes have the highest utility values
  • 10. Analysis of Alternatives Alternative 1: Apply higher fuel efficiency standards o  Reduce the total gas consumption o  Change consumers’ behaviour to energy consumption Alternative 2: Invest in renewable energy technologies o  Reduce the oil reliance on foreigners o  Reduce the burden on domestic oil exploitation Alternative 3: Mobilize public participation about environment o  Based on the major events and proactive media involvement
  • 11. MAUT Analysis Alternative p1 U1 p2 U2 p3 U3 p4 U4 PnWn s Environ 1 0.95 1 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 0.8 0 1.99 mentali sts 2 0.95 0 0.4 1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.44 3 0.95 0.8 0.4 0 0.5 0 0.8 1 1.56 Oil and 1 0.5 0 0.95 1 0.6 1 0.5 0 1.55 gas industr 2 0.5 0.2 0.95 0.2 0.6 0 0.5 0.7 0.64 y 3 0.5 1 0.95 0 0.6 0.3 0.5 1 1.18 Politici 1 0.5 1 0.5 0.7 0.95 1 0.7 0 1.8 ans 2 0.5 0 0.5 1 0.95 0 0.7 0.4 0.78 3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0 0.95 0.5 0.7 1 1.275 Best possible alternative: Alternative 1 (Apply higher fuel efficiency standards)
  • 12. Recommendations •  We should apply higher fuel efficiency standards (Alternative 1) –  Prepare strong back up by reliable and scientific data –  Before employing the new fuel efficiency standards, surveys about possible reaction should be carried out. –  Campaigns to educate/change consumer behaviours should be made a national focus and intensively involve media. –  It also needs supports and commitment from different government levels.
  • 13. Sensitivity Analysis •  Auto and Energy Industries might shake hand to fight against unfavourable Industry standards (E.g: CAFE) •  American may strongly oppose to the new requirement about fuel efficiency. •  The Utility Model based on the subjective approach from environmentalists’ perspective. It may generate different results from others’ point of views. •  The recommendation may be challenged if not being backed up by scientific and reliable statistic data.