Talk by Gabriela Gomes on the 1st Symposium of Big Data and Public Health, 2013

1. Gabriela Gomes
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Portugal

2. Figure 1
A
Colored (intervention) :
dsv (x)
= q(x) µ − xλsv (x),
dt
1
div (x)
= xλsv (x) − µiv (x), λ = β iv (x)dx.
0
dt
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
∫
0
10
B
Black (no intervention) :
M = 1 − e− pd .
Colored (intervention) :
M =1−
€
1
∫ 0 e−xpd q(x)dx.
2
10
transmission intensity, R
0
1
proportion infected
€
density
λ = βI.
proportion infected
Black (no intervention) :
dS
= µ − λS − µS,
dt
dI
= λS − µI,
dt
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
5
10
challenge dose, d
10
10
0
0.5
1
susceptibility
Gomes et al 2013 PLOS Pathogens (in review).

3. data from 90 communities
di(x)
= β [1 − i(x)] − f ( β,r)i(x),
dt
where
β
f ( β,r) = β r
.
e
−1
€
Smith et al 2005 Nature 438: 492.

5. Gomes et al 2012 Proc R Soc Lond B 279: 2473.

6. data from 14 communities
Cape
Town
China
Taiwan
Australia
Denmark
Houston
Spain
Lombardy
US & Canada
India
Madras Malawi
Rwanda
Bangladesh

7. Brazil
Portugal

10. ILI(t) = p(t)I(t)
€