Are you looking for refreshing ideas an insights for your planning or innovation session? Get the most out of your session by using i4fi's updated Megatrend Fact Sheets!
These fact sheets can be used as a briefing document prior to your session, or at the start of the session as an eye-opener. I have even seen meetings where the fact sheets were hung all across the room for participants to discuss!
But the vital thing for this to be successful is to keep the fact sheets digestible for everyone. After all they are meant to stimulate ideas, not to be academic papers. This is why we've kept the fact sheets simple and light!
1. 56 Megatrend Fact Sheets
(briefing document for long-term planning and
innovation sessions)
2014 edition
@fdemeyer
frederic@i4fi.com
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer
2. Terms of use
• This document has been acquired for the internal use of
the acquiring company. It can be spread and shown
internally in the company. It can be shown but not
distributed to people external to the acquiring company.
3. Before you use this document
• The trends discussed in this document are not
predictions, but developments that are currently
deploying and of which the full extend and long-term
impact are relatively unknown.
• The categorization in ‘themes’ is not a scientific exercise.
Some of the trends discussed under a specific theme
could have been included in other themes.
• The ‘Major industries impacted’ and ‘Impact certitude’
sections are based on judgment from i4fi. They are
meant as ‘eye-opener’ and do not result from any
scientific process.
4. What you will find in the fact sheets
‘Key facts’ about
the megatrend
1-2 key graphics
or charts
relating to the
megatrend
‘Sources and
further reading’
leads you to +300
valuable
reports, articles
and
infographs, savin
g you hours of
research
• Major
industries
impacted
• 5-10-15 years
impact certitude
‘Back to menu’
button for easy
navigation
5. Major changes vs previous release
14 new trends covered, 3
left out
98% new charts
and graphics
Extended
‘Sources and
further reading’
notes. +98%
date after 2010
New section:
• major
industries
impacted
• 5-10-15 years
impact certitude
6. Using the fact sheets in innovation workshops
Step 1: discuss
megatrends
Step 3: Idea generation on how
to prepare for threats or benefit
from opportunities, discussion
an selection of best idea
Step 2: Whiteboard selection &
discussion of trends with
highest impact
Works best with:
• 2 teams of 5-6 people per theme;
• people from different background
and seniority level;
• send fact sheets prior to workshop.
7. List of major sources
Institutions-organizations
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Asian Development Bank
Conference Board
Eurostat
The Heritage Foundation
London Management School
MIT
NASA
OECD
Schwab Foundation
UNEP-GRID
UNFPO
United Nations
Vlerick Management School
World Bank
World Economic Forum
World Futurist Society
World Health Organization
World Resources Forum
World Resource Institute
World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
Consultancies:
News and media:
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BBC
Business Week
CIO Magazine
The Economist
Energy Bulletin
Entrepreneur Magazine
The Fast Company
Forbes Magazine
The Guardian
Huffington Post
Inc. Magazine
Information Week
MSNBC
PR Newswire
Scientific American
Thomson Reuters
Wall Street Journal
Washington Post
Wired
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Blogs:
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Accenture
AT Kearney
Board of Innovation
Boston Consultancy
Group
Eurominotor
E&Y
Forrester
Gallup
IDC
JWT Intelligence
KPMG
McKinsey
McKinsey Global
Institute
Nielsen
PEW Research
PWC
Alaklett
Brandon Gaille
Business Insider
Crowdsourcing.org
I4fi
Inhabitat
Mashable
Nextnature
Quartz
Renewable Energy
Social Media Today
Techcrunch
Trendhunter
Urban Mining
Venturebeat
Corporations:
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Alcatel-Lucent
Cisco
Credit Suisse
Ericsson
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Intel
Microsoft
Saatchi
SAP
Symantec
8. 56 megatrends
(go to presentation mode to navigate from and to this slide)
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Demographic trends
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Growing world population
Ageing population
Migration patterns
Urbanization
Gap rich-poor
Generation Y
Generation Z
War for talent
Environment and
sustainability
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Climate change
Scarce resources
Peak oil
Water shortage
Food stress
Clean energy
Smart cities
Bio materials
Cradle-to-cradle
Micro sustainable innovations
Eco activism
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Geopolitical trends
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Power shift
Globalization 3.0
Rising middle class
Energy dependence
The Market State
Consumer & societal
trends
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Mass customization
Ethical buying
‘Buy local’
Social & Group buying
Personalization
Sharing economy
Radical transparency
Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOCs)
Personal Health
Digital divide
Technology trends
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Big Data/ data science
Internet of Things (IoT)
Augmented Reality
Consumerization of IT (BYOD)
Technology ‘as a Service’
Home 3D printing
Business 3D printing
Bioprinting
Enhanced Humans
Wearable Technologies
Business trends
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Life Cycle Assessment
Disintermediation
Crowdsourcing & funding
Open innovation
Gamification
Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR)
Cause Marketing
Social Business Innovation
Social entrepreneurs
Intrapreneurship
Businesses get social
Virtualization of the corporation
10. Growing world population
Key facts:
Most of the population growth will occur in developing
regions, which are projected to increase from 5.9 billion
in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050. During the same
period, the population of developed regions will remain
largely unchanged at around 1.3 billion people. Growth
is expected to be most rapid in the 49 least developed
countries, which are projected to double in size from
around 900 million inhabitants in 2013 to 1.8 billion in
2050.
Impact:
Main sectors impacted
F = Finance
M = Manufacturing
R = Retail
U = Utilities
T = Transport
P = Public Sector
M- Food
U- Water
P- Health Care
= opportunity
M- Pharma
= threat
M- FMCG
= both
Impact certitude
100%
5 years
10 years
> 10 years
RETURN
TO MENU
11. Ageing population
Key facts:
• By 2030 one in every 8 inhabitant of the earth will be
65 or older;
• In developing countries the portion of 65+ inhabitants
will increase from 6% now to 15% in 2050, in the
developed world the portion will grow from 16% now to
26% in 2050;
• This will put (further) strain on public finances and
health provision, and will modify consumption patterns.
Impact:
Main sectors impacted
F = Finance
M = Manufacturing
R = Retail
U = Utilities
T = Transport
P = Public Sector
M- Pharma
P- Health Care
P- Government
= opportunity
F- Insurance
= threat
T- Public Transport
= both
Impact certitude
100%
5 years
10 years
> 10 years
RETURN
TO MENU
12. Migration patterns
Key facts:
• While past and current migration patterns are mainly
influenced by economic and political causes, in the
next decades this might change:
o Ecological immigration (for instance because of
increased drought, which will drive populations inland or
further North/South);
o Diaspora returning home (which already happens for
India and a number of East European countries);
o Western youngsters migrating to emerging countries
for better career opportunities.
The green circles represent places where more people are coming in, and the
orange circles show countries where more people are leaving.
Impact:
Main sectors impacted
F = Finance
M = Manufacturing
R = Retail
U = Utilities
T = Transport
P = Public Sector
P- Defence
P- Government
P- Education
= opportunity
R- Retail
= threat
M- Construction
= both
Impact certitude
100%
5 years
10 years
> 10 years
RETURN
TO MENU
13. Urbanization
Key facts:
• 50.5% of humans now live in cities. By 2050 this will
have grown to 82% in Northern America, 70% in
Europe and 65% in Asia and Africa;
• The number of megacities (>10 million inhabitants)
will grow from 21 to 29 in 2025, when they will
account for 10% of urban population;
• Africa’s urban population will become the second
largest in the world, next to Asia.
Impact:
Main sectors impacted
F = Finance
M = Manufacturing
R = Retail
U = Utilities
T = Transport
P = Public Sector
M- Construction
T- Public Transport
R- Retail
= opportunity
P- Health Care
= threat
M- Technology
= both
Impact certitude
100%
5 years
10 years
> 10 years
RETURN
TO MENU
14. Gap rich-poor
Key facts:
• Of total world income, 42 per cent goes to those
who make up the richest 10 per cent of the world’s
population, while just 1 per cent goes to those who
make up the poorest 10 per cent.
• Among developed economies, the USA has one of
the highest income inequality levels, with its Gini
coefficient reaching 47.4% in 2011, compared to only
34.4% in Germany.
Main sectors impacted
Impact:
F = Finance
M = Manufacturing
R = Retail
U = Utilities
T = Transport
P = Public Sector
P- Health Care
P- Government
M- FMCG
= opportunity
M- Food
= threat
P- Education
= both
Impact certitude
100%
5 years
10 years
> 10 years
RETURN
TO MENU
15. How to get the full document
• This document is a sample of the 56 Megatrend
Fact Sheet document of i4fi. To acquire the full
document please go to:
http://www.fredericdemeyer.com/2014/01/56megatrends-fact-sheets-2014.html