Like the Fast and Furious franchise, you know what’s going to happen in every film. So too, seems to be the venture capital market these days. Deal volumes, valuations and exits all up and to the right. What could go wrong? Check out our State of the Venture Market report for some good data and pretty graphics.
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F-Prime Capital: State of the Venture Market, Summer 2019
1. F-Prime Capital Partners | CONFIDENTIALDecember 19, 2017
Advisory and related services provided as Impresa Management LLC
State of the Venture Market, Tech and FinTech
Summer, 2019
2. 2018 saw record deployment levels, and 2019 is on track to be
equally robust; ~$400B of tech VC investment since 2010
2 (1) Excludes Hardware and Biotech; Categories not mutually exclusive. Updated 4/24/2019
Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis
2018 finished strong, crossing the $100B watermark for the first time since the height of the dot-com boom in 2000.
Q1 2019 results may suggest 2018 was somewhat anomalous, with significant mega-round activity slowing slightly. However,
deployment still at historic rates and significant increase in median deal size appears poised to continue.
FinTech investment in Q1 indicates 2019 will be another frothy year for the category, with both total invested capital and median
deal size looking on track to surpass 2018.
U.S. Venture Investments in Technology1 U.S. Venture Investments in Financial Technology
CONFIDENTIAL
100+ deals over
$100M
3. CONFIDENTIAL
Fundraising also reached new highs in 2018, with 2019 expected to be
another strong year
3
2018 was a 10-year high for fundraising; Q1 sluggish, but
several prominent firms on the road
LPs may be exercising caution in the face of a multi-year
bull run; first-time funds drop off precipitously in Q1
Likely to exceed run rate
projections with several funds
seeking $1B+ (Khosla, a16z,
NEA, and Vivo Capital)
Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis
Growing portion raised
in megafunds
4. CONFIDENTIAL
Robust deal volume and continued growth in deal sizes and prices
4 Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis
U.S. VC Pre-Money Valuation by StageU.S. VC Deal Size by Stage
5. CONFIDENTIAL
Public SaaS valuations have caught up to the private market, setting
the stage for a robust exit market
5 (*) Public SaaS index limited to Bessemer Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index company list; Private denotes pre-money valuation to revenue
Source: Nasdaq/Bessemer Cloud Index; Capital IQ; Pitchbook
Public and private SaaS multiples have grown largely in tandem
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
Median EV/Sales
Public
Private
*
• Public SaaS multiples continue to rise along
with private multiples
• As late-stage private funding grows as a
proportion of venture capital dollars, we are
not surprised to see a convergence of multiples
• Later-stage rounds see participation from
firms investing on both sides of the IPO
• Public markets exhibiting exuberance for
tech companies after a long shortage of
VC-backed IPOs
• Current public company metrics against the
current median of 11.4x EV/Sales
• Median 1-yr growth rate: 33.5%
• Median FCF: 34%
• Median GM: 73.5%
6. CONFIDENTIAL
After a strong exit market in last year, 2019 may break records with
almost $200B in exit value already priced or announced
6
Facebook: $81B
market cap at IPO
Year
founded
IPO value*
[estimate]
Last round
valuation
Total prior
funding
Priced Lyft 2012 $22.2B $15B $4.9B
PagerDuty 2009 $2.8B $1.3B $173M
Zoom 2011 $15.9B $1B $160M
Pinterest 2009 $12.9B $12B $1.5B
Announced Uber 2009 [$120B] $72B $17.9B
Slack 2009 [$10.0B] $7.1B $1.2B
Postmates 2011 [$1.9B] $1.9B $681M
Beyond Meat 2009 [$1.2B] $1.2B $193M
Fastly 2011 [$925M] $925M $220M
Total $187B $27B
Bench stacked with unicorns2019 already on track to double 2018
Against ~$400B of fund deployment, over $600B of exit value
since 2010, with nearly 200 unicorn companies still privately held
Massive exit volumes in 2019 could soften the impact of a public
market correction as liquidity is rolled back into new funds
Note: Potential IPO valuations are estimates based on triangulation between last round price, S-1 analysis, media reporting; Italics indicate assumed last round valuation
(*) End of first day of trading ; Italicized IPO value estimates indicate last private round valuation assumed.
Source: Pitchbook; S-1 analyses; Team analysis
Up round
7. CONFIDENTIAL
Another $500B+ of unrealized exit potential among unicorn
companies alone, with value creation across many verticals
7 Note: Includes all private companies with last known valuation of $1B+ that have not yet filed for IPO; Median age of unicorns = 8 years.
Source: Pitchbook
Value creation occurring across a broader set of verticals
as the surface area for tech VC expands
$500B+ in exit value potential
remaining from 188 unicorns alone
Total funding raised by
these companies: $120B
Transportation
Hospitality
Real estate
Banking
8. Company Ticker IPO Date
Amount
Raised ($M)
Last private
valuation ($M)
Mkt. Cap at
IPO* ($M)
Δ since IPO
LTM Revenue
($M)
Rev. Growth
Rev.
Multiple
EBITDA
Margin
Pinterest PINS 4/18/2019 1,400 12,300 12,920 5.9% 756 59.9% 18.1x -7.1%
Zoom Video ZM 4/18/2019 357 1,000 15,900 11.3% 331 118.2% 53.5x 4.0%
PagerDuty PD 4/11/2019 218 1,300 2,820 4.1% 118 48.0% 24.9x -34.5%
Tufin TUFN 4/11/2019 124 n/a 620 20.4% 85 31.7% 8.8x -1.1%
Lyft LYFT 3/29/2019 2,340 15,100 22,400 -23.1% 2,157 103.5% 8.0x -44.3%
Anaplan PLAN 10/12/2018 164 1,410 2,960 58.5% 241 42.9% 19.5x -47.9%
Elasticsearch ESTC 10/5/2018 252 1,000 4,860 29.6% 241 - 26.2x -33.9%
Upwork UPWK 10/3/2018 187 n/a 2,200 -6.6% 253 25.1% 8.1x -2.7%
SurveyMonkey SVMK 9/26/2018 180 2,000 2,110 5.4% 254 16.3% 8.7x -39.1%
Eventbrite EB 9/20/2018 230 1,500 2,770 -37.1% 292 44.7% 6.0x -5.5%
Tenable TENB 7/26/2018 250 n/a 2,760 14.9% 267 42.4% 11.9x -25.1%
Domo DOMO 6/29/2018 193 2,280 681 46.8% 143 31.3% 7.0x -97.7%
EverQuote EVER 6/27/2018 84 220 447 -51.5% 163 29.4% 1.3x -8.1%
Avalara AVLR 6/14/2018 180 925 2,930 34.1% 272 27.7% 14.4x -19.9%
Greensky GSKY 5/23/2018 800 3,600 1,210 -35.8% 415 27.2% 1.9x 37.9%
PluralSights PS 5/16/2018 311 n/a 1,200 108.5% 232 39.1% 10.8x -43.8%
Carbon Black CBLK 5/3/2018 152 692 1,580 -41.4% 210 30.4% 4.4x -30.2%
DocuSign DOCU 4/27/2018 629 3,070 6,040 55.4% 701 35.2% 13.4x -55.8%
Smartsheet SMAR 4/27/2018 150 852 1,930 125.8% 178 59.8% 24.5x -26.7%
Pivotal Software PVTL 4/20/2018 555 2,800 3,940 34.4% 658 29.1% 8.1x -19.3%
CONFIDENTIAL
Late-stage tech start-ups are seeing significant step-ups in valuation
at the IPO with continued growth post-IPO
8
Up round Down roundIPOs, last ~12 months
Note: Public market data as of 4/24/2019; If no arrow, no private round valuation data available. (*) End of first day of trading; Revenue multiple reflects market cap to LTM revenue
Source: Capital IQ
9. CONFIDENTIAL
Strong market performance is rooted in companies growing at
hyper-scale and enjoying consumer-like network effects
9
High, sustained topline
revenue growth
• Companies are pursuing massive global end markets
that support growth at scale
• Even at $100M revenue, the best companies grow >50%
YoY; median growth of 38% YoY for 2018 IPO cohort
• Stand-outs include Zoom (+118% YoY), Elastic (+79%),
Smartsheet (+68%), and Zscaler (+53%)
Enterprise IT enjoying
consumer-like network
effects
• Viral adoption of certain B2B SaaS products has
mirrored that of social media apps
• Free trials, quick time-to-value, and credit card-based
billing help drive adoption
• Smartsheet generates 100K+ new trials a month
Significant upsell within
the customer base
• Of the 15 high-growth SaaS IPOs in 2019, 12 companies
showed net dollar retention (‘NDR’) greater than 100%
• Median NDR for the 2018 class was 117%
• Pivotal (158% NDR), Elastic (142%), and Smartsheet
(130%) led the class
1
2
3
Example Companies Data / Insight
Note: All public data as of 4/10/2019
Sources: Capital IQ; Nasdaq; SEC Edgar
10. CONFIDENTIAL
Market is primarily valuing growth and valuations are 2-3x above
historical averages despite deep unprofitability
10
Profitability of companies at IPO near 20-year low
Multiples at IPO quickly accelerating above
historical norms
Note: Analysis on roughly 500 tech IPOs over last 20 years; Full N of tech IPOs = 696, remainder excluded for data gaps
Source: Pitchbook; Team analysis