On October 15, 2021, ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Disaster Coverage: How Media Reports on Disaster Events', led by Kevin Quigley, PhD, Scholarly Director, Professor, School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University. Media narratives play an important role in how we understand disaster events and how we hold public officials to account for their response. While media coverage of high impact-low probability events seems dramatic, in fact, it’s quite nuanced. Different types of events generate different types of coverage. Pandemics generate high volume and alarming media coverage. So, too, do terrorist attacks and industrial failures. In contrast, terrorist plots and natural disasters generate medium- to high-volume coverage that is mildly negative and at times positive towards officials. Media cover cybersecurity very little. This presentation will review the patterns and reflect on their consequences. Kevin Quigley is a public administration scholar who specializes in risk governance and critical infrastructure, focusing in particular on public sector responses to rare and high impact events, such as pandemics, natural disasters, industrial failures and cyber and terrorist attacks. Dr. Quigley has published two critically acclaimed books on critical infrastructure, including his most recent, 'Too Critical to Fail: How Canada Manages Threats to Critical Infrastructure' (co-authored with Bisset and Mills) which was shortlisted for the 2018 Donner Prize, awarded for the best public policy book by a Canadian.

1. Disaster Coverage: How Media Report
on Disasters
Kevin Quigley
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
October 2021

2. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
2
Hood, Rothstein and Baldwin: Risk Regulation Regimes
Media
and
Public
Opinion
Markets
Context
Interest
Groups
Risk Regulation Regime
Pressure

3. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
3
Media
and
Public
Opinion
Markets
Context
Interest
Groups
Risk Regulation Regime
Pressure

4. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Natural Disasters
4
• Canberra bushfires (2003)
• Hurricane Juan (2003)
• California wildfires (2007)
• United Kingdom floods (2007)
• Eyjafjallajökull eruptions (2010)
• Toronto floods (2013)
• Alberta floods (2013)

5. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Industrial Failures
5
• Potters Bar train wreck (2002)
• Waterfall train accident (2003)
• Melbourne chemical spill
(2005)
• Texas City Refinery explosion
(2005)
• Buncefield explosions (2005)
• De la Concord overpass
collapse (2006)
• I-35W bridge collapse (2007)
• Sunrise Propane explosion
(2008)
• Elliot Lake mall collapse
(2012)
• West, Texas fertilizer plant
explosion (2013)
• Lac-Mégantic explosion
(2013)

6. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Terrorist Attacks
6
• Royal Artillery Barracks attack (2013)
• Moncton shootings (2014)
• Parliament Hill shootings (2014)
• Sydney hostage crisis (2014)

7. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Terrorist Plots
7
• Sydney Five terrorism plot (2005)
• Sears Tower plot (2006)
• Toronto 18 plot (2006)
• Transatlantic flights lot (2006)
• VIA Rail terrorism plot (2013)

8. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Cyber Events
8
• SQL Slammer worm (2003)
• Albert Gonzalez data thefts (2005)
• Estonia cyber warfare (2007)
• Canada Revenue Agency software defect (2007)
• Conficker computer worm (2008)
• GhostNet (2009)
• Sony Pictures hack (2014)

9. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Pandemics
9
• H1N1 in the U.S. (March 2009-August 2010)
• H1N1 in Canada (April 2009-August 2010)
• H1N1 in the U.K. (April 2009-August 2010)
• H1N1 in Australia (May 2009-August 2010)

10. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
10

11. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
11
Media Coverage During Disasters / Crises
5
10
0
25
30
-5
-10
-15
-20 5 10 15 20
Performance
Assessment
Volume of Media
Coverage (# of
Articles)
0
15
20
35
40
45
50

12. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
12

13. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
“Climate change” and “Oil” in Media (2019-2020)
13
Key Terms 2019 mentions 2020 mentions Total % Change
Climate change 1774 817 2591 -54
Oil 1260 1240 2500 -1.6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Number
of
published
articles
Climate Change Oil

14. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Poll of Canadians’ Priorities: 2021 Federal
Election
14
1. Cost of living
2. Increased health-care funding
3. Post pandemic economic recovery
4. Managing the pandemic
5. The level of taxes Canadians pay
6. Housing affordability
7. Climate change
8. Reducing poverty
Source: National Post (2021).

15. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
15

16. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Scenario Planning: Intuitive Logics
16
• There are many scenario planning methods. We will refer to the
intuitive logics method, and draw on the Dutch School, with
reference to Van der Heijden, Van Asselt and others.
• The method is process- and discussion-oriented.
• This method helps organizations identify factors that drive their
sector, describe plausible futures to which they must react, and
define policies they can develop in response to these futures.
• The conventional structure of an intuitive logics scenario planning
exercise includes a 2 x 2 matrix that consists of four boxes used to
plot scenarios and two axes that represent drivers.

17. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Drivers
• Environmental factors that influence or shape the
success of the sector
• Often outside of your control
• They can be social, health, economic, technological
and / or regulatory factors
17

18. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
18
Scenario
4
Scenario
1
Scenario
3
Scenario
2
Driver One High
Driver One Low
Driver Two Low Driver Two High

19. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Develop the Scenarios
19
WHAT DOES THIS SCENARIO
LOOK LIKE?
HOW DID YOU GET TO THIS
SCENARIO?
WHAT ARE THE UNDERLYING
CAUSES THAT LED TO THIS?
WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FAILURES?
WHAT ARE THE
OPPORTUNITIES?
NAME THE SCENARIO
WHAT DOES THIS SCENARIO
LOOK LIKE?
HOW DID YOU GET TO THIS
SCENARIO
WHAT ARE THE UNDERLYING
CAUSES THAT LED TO THIS?
WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FAILURES?
WHAT ARE THE
OPPORTUNITIES?
NAME THE SCENARIO
Scenario
4
Scenario
1
Scenario
3
Scenario
2
Driving Force 1
High
Driving Force 1
Low
Driving
Force 2
Low
Driving
Force 2
High

20. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
20
Scenario
4
Scenario
1
Scenario
3
Scenario
2
High Media Profile
Low Media Profile
Diffuse
Accountability
Centralized
Accountability

21. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
21
“Go Team”
“Climate
Czar”
“Lonely
Activists
and Blame-
Gamers”
“The Busy
Bureaucrat”
High Media Profile
Low Media Profile
Diffuse
Accountability
Centralized
Accountability

22. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Develop the Scenarios
22
WHAT DOES THIS SCENARIO
LOOK LIKE?
HOW DID YOU GET TO THIS
SCENARIO?
WHAT ARE THE UNDERLYING
CAUSES THAT LED TO THIS?
WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FAILURES?
WHAT ARE THE
OPPORTUNITIES?
NAME THE SCENARIO
WHAT DOES THIS SCENARIO
LOOK LIKE?
HOW DID YOU GET TO THIS
SCENARIO
WHAT ARE THE UNDERLYING
CAUSES THAT LED TO THIS?
WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FAILURES?
WHAT ARE THE
OPPORTUNITIES?
NAME THE SCENARIO
“Go Team”
“Climate
Czar”
“Lonely
Activists
and Blame-
Gamers”
“Busy
Bureaucrat”
Media Coverage
High
Medi Coverage
Low
Accountabil
ity
Decentraliz
ed
Accounta
bility
Centraliz
ed

23. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Second way: multiple boxes, depending
on the crisis…
23
“Go Team”
“Climate
Czar”
“Lonely
Activists
and Blame-
Gamers”
“The Busy
Bureaucrat”
High Media Profile
Low Media Profile
Diffuse
Accountability
Centralized
Accountability

24. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Concluding Observations
24
Media coverage of disasters reveals patterns
Increased attention to climate disasters seems
inevitable but . . .
Historical trends raise questions; scenario planning
can help us think through different plausible futures
Don’t let a crisis go to waste: the work-at-home
policy

25. January 2021 | Kevin Quigley
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
For More Information
Kevin Quigley
Scholarly Director
MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance
Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
kevin.quigley@dal.ca
902 494 3782
Introduction to scenario planning, videos and materials
online at dal.ca/mipp
25
@DalMIPP
Dal.ca/MIPP
Too Critical To Fail
How Canada Manages
Threats to Critical
Infrastructure