Stock market project for mba finance

1.1 INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE TOPIC
The market for long term securities like bonds, equity stocks and
preferred stocks is divided into primary market and secondary market.
Primary market deals with the new issues of securities. Outstanding
securities are traded in the secondary market, which is commonly known
as stock market or stock exchange. In the secondary market, the investors
can sell or buy securities. Stock markets predominantly deal in the equity
shares. Well regulated and active stock market promotes capital
formation. The health of the economy is reflected by the growth of the
stock market. Stock broking is a growing industry in India. The main
reason is that Indian economy is one of the strongest in the world. As a
result of that both foreign and domestic investors are interested in
investing in Indian stock market.
The topic selected for the study is “Security Analysis of selected
power sector securities listed in Bombay Stock Exchange” with
reference to Motilal Oswal securities Ltd, Thrissur.
The study is done for the purpose of conducting fundamental analysis
and technical analysis of leading securities in the stock market. In the
stock market share price of companies are determined by the demand and
supply forces operating in the market. These demand and supply forces in
turn are influenced by a number of fundamental factors as well as certain
psychological or emotional factors. The combined impact of all these
factors is reflected in the share price movement. The price movements of
securities follow systematic and certain consistent patterns. Past
movements in the prices of shares help to identify trends and pattern. It is
useful for the prediction of future price movements.

The companies
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selected are NTPC, RELIANCE, POWERGRID, NHPC, TATAPOWER
and ADANI POWER.
Security analysis is conducted by analyzing both the fundamental and
technical aspects. The technical analysis includes bar chart, Moving
Average & RSI (Relative Strength Index).
Security analysis

2

An examination and evaluation of the various factors affecting the
value of a security is known as Security analysis. Security analysis
refers to the analysis of tradable financial instruments. Financial
instruments can be classified into debt securities, equities, or some
hybrid of the two, futures contracts and tradable credit derivatives
are sometimes included. Security analysis is typically divided into
fundamental analysis, which relies upon the examination of
fundamental business factors such as financial statements, and
technical analysis, which focuses upon price trends and momentum
. Two analytical models When the objective of the analysis is to
determine what stock to buy and at what price, there are two basic
methodologies
Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a security in
the short run but that the "correct" price will eventually be reached.
Profits can be made by trading the mispriced security and then
waiting for the market to recognize its "mistake" and re-price the
security.
Technical analysis maintains that all information is reflected already in
the stock price, so fundamental analysis is a waste of time. Trends
'are your friend' and sentiment changes predate and predict trend
changes. Investors' emotional responses to price movements lead to
recognizable price chart patterns. Technical analysis does not care
what the 'value' of a stock is. Their price predictions are only
extrapolations from historical price patterns.
Investors can use both these different but somewhat complementary
methods for stock picking. Many fundamental investors use techniques

3

for deciding entry and exit points. Many technical investors use
fundamentals to limit their universe of possible stock to 'good' companies
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial
statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and
its competitors and markets. When applied to futures and forex, it focuses
on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings,
and management. When analyzing a stock, futures contract, or currency
using fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use;
bottom up analysis and top down analysis. The term is used to distinguish
such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as
quantitative analysis and technical analysis.A method of security
valuation which involves examining the company's financials and
operations, especially sales, earnings, growth potential, assets, debt,
management, products, and competition. Fundamental analysis takes into
consideration only those variables that are directly related to the company
itself, rather than the overall state of the market or technical analysis data.
The end goal of performing fundamental analysis is to produce a value
that an investor can compare with the security's current price in hopes of
figuring out what sort of position to take with that security
Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but
with the goal of making financial forecasts. There are several possible
objectives:

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

To conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable
price evolution,



To make a projection on its business performance,



To evaluate its management and make internal business decisions,



To calculate its credit risk

Tools for fundamental analysis
For fundamental analysis, the following ratios are used:
EPS

=

PAT / No of equity shares

DPS

=

Amount declared as dividend / No.
of equity shares

Pay out ratio

=

DPS / EPS

ROE

=

PAT / Net worth

P/E ratio

=

MPS / EPS

P/E Average

=

Average of the P/E range

Current ratio

=

Current assets / Current liabilities

Debt- Equity ratio

=

Debt capital / Owner’s capital

Interest coverage ratio

=

EBIT / Interest

N/P Margin

=

PAT / Net sales

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is a study of the market data in terms of factors
affecting supply and demand schedules, namely, prices, volume of
trading, etc. The technical analysis believes that share prices are
determined by the demand and supply forces operating the market. These
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demand and supply forces are in turn influenced by a number of
fundamental factors as well as certain psychological and emotional
factors. The combined impact of all these factors is reflected in the share
price movement. The technical analysis therefore concentrates on the
movement of share price. Technical analysis is the name given to
forecasting techniques that utilize historical share price data.
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing
statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume.
Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value,
but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest
future activity. Technical analysts believe that the historical performance
of stocks and markets are indications of future performance.
TOOLS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS



Relative Strength Index



Simple Moving Average



Line Chart



Bar Chart

1.2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Aber John(1976) in his study found that numerous empirical studies have
tested the profitability of technical trading rules in a variety of markets
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for the purpose of either uncovering profitable trading rules or testing
market efficiency, or both. The technical trading studies simulated only
one or two trading systems. In these studies, although transaction costs
were deducted to compute net returns of technical trading strategies, risk
was not adequately handled, statistical tests of trading profits and data
snooping

problems

were

often

disregarded,

and

out-of-sample

verification along with parameter (trading rule) optimization were not
considered in the testing procedure.
Goodman and John W Peavy (1983) in their study found that there is no
way of making an expected profit by extrapolating past changes in the
futures price, by chart or any other esoteric devices of magic or
mathematics. The market quotation already contains in itself all that can
be known about the future and in that
sense has discounted future contingencies as much as is humanly
possible.
Philip O Regan (1988) explained that demonstrated that under a noisy
rational expectations model in which current prices do not fully reveal
private information (signals) because of noise (unobserved current supply
of a risky asset) in the current equilibrium price, historical prices (i.e.,
technical analysis) together with current prices help traders make more
precise inferences about past and present signals than do current prices
alone
Brown and David P (1989) in their article explained that results provide
evidence for a “predictive information link” between non-earnings
numbers and future earnings changes. They indicate that some non-

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earnings numbers do contain information useful for predicting future
earnings changes that is not contained in either past or current earnings.
Edward (1992) found that also extends her test to include a “valuation
link” between the predicted future earnings changes and stock returns
during the annual report dissemination period. She finds evidence that
this valuation link does exist. The non-earnings accounting numbers are
therefore useful for predicting both future earnings and returns.
Demark and Thomas R (1994) explained that the history of technical
analysis dates back to at least the 18th century when the Japanese
developed a form of technical analysis known as candlestick charting
techniques. This technique was not introduced to the West until the
1970s.
Hackel and Kenneth S (1996)found that it has been stated that “the task
of research is to discover what information projects future earnings and,
from a financial statement analysis point of view, what information in the
financial statements does this”
Jan R (1998) explained that results show that receivables do provide
incremental information for the prediction of future sales, earnings and
profit margins.
Squires (2000) found that study the value relevance of capital
expenditures for explaining returns beyond the use of current earnings.
Their findings show that changes in the level of capital expenditure were
strongly and positively related to excess returns. This exhibits the fact
that current capital expenditure has good news for the future performance
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of a firm and supports the use of capital expenditures for predicting future
earnings or returns.
Thomas Robinson (2002) in their study explained that

Fundamental

analysis involves assessing a firm’s equity value based on the analysis of
published financial statements and other information without reference to
the prices at which a firm’s securities trade in the capital markets.
Palepu and Krishna (2004) found that technical analysis has been
extensively used among market participants such as brokers, dealers, fund
managers, speculators, and individual investors in the financial industry.
3 Numerous surveys indicate that practitioners attribute a significant role
to technical analysis. For example, futures fund managers rely heavily on
computer-guided technical trading systems, and about 30% to 40% of
foreign exchange traders around the world believe that technical analysis
is the major factor determining exchange rates in the short-run up to six
months.
Prasanna Chandra (2005) explained that Active portfolio management is
commonly partitioned into two types of activities: market timing, which
requires forecasts of broad-based market movements, and security
analysis, which requires the selection of individual stocks that are
perceived to be underpriced by the market.
V K Bhalla (2006) explained that security analysis Psychological and
Institutional Forces and the Determination of Exchange Rates,
Neoclassical economists, by their own admission, have had a terrible time
explaining foreign-currency prices. In large part, this is due to the fact
that they assume "economic" behavior to be independent of social and
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cultural influences. But markets are social institutions. They "organize
and guide human social behavior through sanctions (formal and informal,
negative and positive), mores, norms, status, and shared worldviews".
Consequently, explaining economic exchange requires an understanding
of the behavior associated with the subculture of those in question.
Dhanesh Kumar Khatri (2006) in their article found that a leading
technical analyst, provides a more specific definition: “The technical
approach to investment is essentially a reflection of the idea that prices
move in trends that are determined by the changing attitudes of investors
toward a variety of economic, monetary, political, and psychological
forces. The art of technical analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend
reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight
of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.”
Stephan H Penman (2007) in his study found that Technical analysis
includes a variety of forecasting techniques such as chart analysis, pattern
recognit ion analysis, seasonality and cycle analysis, and computerized
technical trading systems.However, academic research on technical
analysis is generally limited to techniques that can be expressed in
mathematical forms, namely technical trading systems, although some
recent studies attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern
recognition algorithms. A technical trading system consists of a set of
trading rules that result from parameterizations, and each trading rule
generates trading signals (long, short, or out of market) according to their
parameter values. Several popular technical trading systems are moving
averages, channels, and momentum oscillators.

10

Ran Canetti & IBM Research (2008) explained that Composable Formal
Security Analysis, a security property of a protocol is composable if it
remains intact even when the protocol runs alongside other protocols in
the same system. We describe a method for asserting composable security
properties, and demonstrate its usefulness. In particular, we show how
this method can be used to provide security analysis that is formal,
relatively simple, and still does not make un-justiﬁed abstractions of the
underlying cryptographic algorithms in use. It can also greatly enhance
the feasibility of automated security analysis of systems of realistic size.
Prasanna Chandra (2008) in his study he explained that Motivated by an
obvious gap between the widespread use of Bloomberg terminals in the
finance industry and the scant resources available to an instructor on how
to incorporate the available information through the terminal into a
finance course, we illustrate our experience using the terminal in an
equity-focused security analysis and portfolio management course. Our
goal is to enable students inexperienced with the terminal to prepare an
analyst report. We identify the most significant challenges we face and
provide the corresponding solutions. Our results are also applicable to
other finance courses including financial analysis, investments, and
student managed investment fund.

1.3 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY
1.3.1 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

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• To study fundamental and technical analysis of securities in the
power sector.
• To evaluate the performance of the company.
• To analyze the movement of stock.
• To evaluate the risk and return of the selected securities.

1.3.2 NEED OF THE STUDY

The capital gains of an investor are on the performance of a particular
company’s stock in the stock market. The stronger the company’s share,
the more profit the investor gets. So it is necessary to ascertain, analyze
and interpret the share of various firms in order to know its position in the
market. Investors can make wise investment with the help of this analysis
Through this project, it tries to point out the company which ensure
maximum return and minimum risk in power sector where in investment
could be made.
1.3.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The study is to analyze the financial strength and future investment
prospective of the key players from power sector of the economy.The
fundamental analysis is to determine the value of the shares. The
technical analysis is to predict the future stock behavior. Rational
investors always focus on maximum return which bears minimum risk.
Hence, for them, well diversified equity funds are the superlative
opportunity available for the investment. .
1.3.4 LIMITATIONS

12

• Data considered only for past few months.
• Indian capital market is featured by the weak form of efficient
market hypothesis.
• The research will be confined to only 7 securities in the power
sector.

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2.1 INDUSTRY PROFILE
Capital Market
The market where investment funds like bonds, equities and
mortgages are traded is known as the capital market. The primal role of
the capital market is to channelize investments from investors who have
surplus funds to the ones who are running a deficit. The capital market
offers both long term and overnight funds. The financial instruments that
have short or medium term maturity periods are dealt in the money
market whereas the financial instruments that have long maturity periods
are dealt in the capital market. The different types of financial
instruments that are traded in the capital markets are equity instruments,
credit market instruments, insurance instruments, foreign exchange
instruments, hybrid instruments and derivative instruments.
A capital market is a market for securities (both debt and equity),
where business enterprises (companies) and governments can raise longterm funds. It is defined as a market in which money is lent for periods
longer than a year, as the raising of short-term funds takes place on other
markets (e.g., the money market). The capital market includes the stock
market (equity securities) and the bond market (debt).
Capital markets consist of
1 Primary market
2 Secondary markets

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Primary market
The primary market is that part of the capital markets that deals with
the issuance of new securities. Companies, governments or public
sector institutions can obtain funding through the sale of a new
stock or bond issue. This is typically done through a syndicate of
securities dealers. The process of selling new issues to investors
is called underwriting. In the case of a new stock issue, this sale is
an initial public offering (IPO). Dealers earn a commission that is
built into the price of the security offering, though it can be found
in the prospectus.
The primary markets are where new stock and bonds issues are sold
(via underwriting) to investors. The secondary markets are
where existing securities are sold and bought from one investor
or trader to another, usually on a securities exchange, over the
counter, or elsewhere.
Features of primary markets are:
•

This is the market for new long term equity capital. The primary
market is the market where the securities are sold for the first time.
Therefore it is also called the new issue market (NIM).

•

In a primary issue, the securities are issued by the company
directly to investors.

•

The company receives the money and issues new security
certificates to the investors.

•

Primary issues are used by companies for the purpose of setting up
new business or for expanding or modernizing the existing
business.

15

•

The primary market performs the crucial function of facilitating
capital formation in the economy.

•

The new issue market does not include certain other sources of new
long term external finance, such as loans from financial
institutions. Borrowers in the new issue market may be raising
capital for converting private capital into public capital; this is
known as "going public."

•

The financial assets sold can only be redeemed by the original
holder.

Methods of issuing securities in the primary market are:
1 Initial public offering;
2 Rights issue (for existing companies);

An initial public stock offering (IPO) referred to simply as an
"offering" or "flotation," is when a company issues common stock
or shares to the public for the first time. They are often issued by
smaller, younger companies seeking capital to expand, but can
also be done by large privately-owned companies looking to
become publicly traded.
A rights issue is offered to all existing shareholders individually
and may be rejected, accepted in full or accepted in part. Rights
are often transferable, allowing the holder to sell them on the
open market. A right to a share is generally issued on a ratio basis
(e.g. one-for-three rights issue). Because the company receives

16

shareholders' money in exchange for shares, a rights issue is a
source of capital.

Secondary market
The secondary market, also known as the aftermarket, is the
financial market where previously issued securities and
financial instruments such as stock, bonds, options, and
futures are bought and sold. The term "secondary market" is also
used to refer to the market for any used goods or assets, or an
alternative use for an existing product or asset where the
customer base is the second market (for example, corn has been
traditionally used primarily for food production and feedstock,
but a second- or third- market has developed for use in ethanol
production).
Under a secondary market offering or seasoned equity offering of
shares to raise money, a company can opt for a rights issue to raise
capital. The rights issue is a special form of shelf offering or shelf
registration. With the issued rights, existing shareholders have the
privilege to buy a specified number of new shares from the firm at a
specified price within a specified time. A rights issue is in contrast to
an initial public offering (primary market offering), where shares are
issued to the general public through market exchanges. With primary
issuances of securities or financial instruments, or the primary market,
investors purchase these securities directly from issuers such as

17

corporations issuing shares in an IPO or private placement, or directly
from the federal government in the case of treasuries.

After the initial issuance, investors can purchase from
other investors in the secondary market. The secondary
market for a variety of assets can vary from fragmented to centralized,
and from illiquid to very liquid. The major stock exchanges are the most
visible example of liquid secondary markets - in this case, for stocks of
publicly traded companies. . Exchanges provide a centralized, liquid
secondary market for the investors who own stocks that trade on those
exchanges. Most bonds and structured products trade “over the counter,”
or by phoning the bond desk of one’s broker-dealer.
Functions of Secondary market
Secondary marketing is vital to an efficient and modern capital
market. In the secondary market, securities are sold by and
transferred from one investor or speculator to another. It is
therefore important that the secondary market be highly liquid
(originally, the only way to create this liquidity was for investors
and speculators to meet at a fixed place regularly; this is how
stock exchanges originated, see History of the Stock
Exchange). As a general rule, the greater the number of investors
that participate in a given marketplace, and the greater the
centralization of that marketplace, the more liquid the market.
Fundamentally, secondary markets mesh the investor's preference for
liquidity (i.e., the investor's desire not to tie up his or her money for a
long period of time, in case the investor needs it to deal with unforeseen

18

circumstances) with the capital user's preference to be able to use the
capital for an extended period of time
Stock Exchanges
Stock exchanges are open markets that trade financial assets.
Whether associated with a company or acting as an individual, a
stock exchange is the place where stocks are bought and sold.
There are a number of major stock exchanges around the world
and each of these plays a part in determining the overall financial
and economic condition of any economy. Stock exchanges deal
with a number of financial instruments such as stocks, bonds and
equities. Both corporate and government bonds are traded in
stock exchanges. Equities include popular investment options,
rights issues, bonus issues, and all other forms of shares and
stocks. The actual trading of stocks takes place through mediators
such as financial advisors, brokerage houses, and stockbrokers A
stock exchange, (formerly a securities exchange) is a corporation
or mutual organization which provides "trading" facilities for
stock brokers and traders, to trade stocks and other securities.
Stock exchanges also provide facilities for the issue and
redemption of securities as well as other financial instruments
and capital events including the payment of income and
dividends. The securities traded on a stock exchange include:
shares issued by companies, unit trusts, derivatives, pooled
investment products and bonds. To be able to trade a security on
a certain stock exchange, it has to be listed there. Usually there is
a central location at least for recordkeeping, but trade is less and
less linked to such a physical place, as modern markets are

19

electronic networks, which gives them advantages of speed and
cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is by members only.
The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by
definition done in the primary market and subsequent trading is
done in the secondary market. A stock exchange is often the
most important component of a stock market. Supply and
demand in stock markets are driven by various factors which, as
in all free markets, affect the price of stocks (see stock
valuation).
There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock
exchange itself, nor must stock be subsequently traded on the
exchange. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-thecounter. This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are
traded. Increasingly, stock exchanges are part of a global market
for securities.
The role of stock exchanges
The main role of a stock exchange is to facilitate the transactions
associated with both the buying and selling of securities. Buyers
and sellers of shares and stocks can track the price changes of
securities from the stock markets in which they operate. The ups
and downs of stock indexes help the investors to speculate on the
return on investment (ROI) of various investment options. Stock
exchanges also serve as a source of capital formation for listed
companies. Business entities that are listed in a particular stock
exchange can issue shares to the public and sell those shares in
that market. To take part in these transactions, listed companies
need to abide by the rules and requirements of that market. The
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stock exchanges protect the interests of both buyers and sellers
by assuring a timely transfer of money. The participants of a stock
market are required to operate within the specified transaction
limits fixed by the regulatory authority of that stock market
Speed and transparency are vital for all stock market
transactions. The companies listed in a stock exchange need to
provide proper guidance regarding business performance and
prospects, mergers and acquisitions, stock prices, dividends and
other information at all times. Investors make their investment
decisions based on the information obtained from these
companies, and the comments of analysts who track those
companies.

Bombay Stock Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest stock exchange in Asia with a
rich heritage, now spanning three centuries in its 133 years of
existence. What is now popularly known as BSE was established as
"The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association" in 1875
Stock Exchanges Operations :
With the help of stockbrokers, the buyers and sellers participating
in a stock market carry out their transactions. The brokers
representing selling parties take their orders to the stock
exchange floor and then find brokers representing parties willing
to invest in similar stocks. If both parties agree to trade at the
fixed price, the transaction takes place. The size of the world
stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion US at the
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beginning of October 2008. The total world derivatives market
has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value,
11 times the size of the entire world economy. The value of the
derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional
values, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income
security, which traditionally refers to an actual value. Moreover,
the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.e., a
derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable
derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring.). Many such relatively
illiquid securities are valued as marked to model, rather than an
actual market price.
The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are
entities of a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the
business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a
listing of stocks and securities together
A transaction on a stock exchange must be made between two
members of the exchange — an ordinary person may not walk
into the New York Stock Exchange (for example), and ask to
trade stock. Such an exchange must be done through a broker.
There are three types of stock broking service.
 Execution-only, which means that the broker will only carry
out the client's instructions to buy or sell.
 Advisory dealing, where the broker advises the client on which
shares to buy and sell, but leaves the final decision to the
investor.

22

 Discretionary dealing, where the stockbroker ascertains the
client's investment objectives and then makes all dealing
decisions on the client's behalf
Roles similar to that of a stockbroker include investment advisor,
and financial advisor. A stockbroker may or may not be also an
investment advisor.
Stockbrokers also sometimes or exclusively trade on their own
behalf, as a principal, speculating that a share or other financial
instrument will increase or decline in price. In such cases the term broker
makes little sense and the individuals or firms trading in principal
capacity sometimes call themselves dealers, stock traders or simply
traders.

2.2 COMPANY PROFILE
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) was founded in 1987 as a
small sub-broking unit, with just two people running the show. Focus on
customer-first-attitude, ethical and transparent business practices, respect
for professionalism, research-based value investing and implementation
of cutting-edge technology has enabled us to blossom into an almost 2000
member team.
Today firm offering a well diversified financial services and a
range of financial products and services such as Wealth Management,
Broking & Distribution, Commodity Broking, Portfolio Management

23

Services, Institutional Equities, Private Equity, Investment Banking
Services and Principal Strategies.
Company have a diversified client base that includes retail
customers (including High Net worth Individuals), mutual funds, foreign
institutional investors, financial institutions and corporate clients.
company headquartered in Mumbai and as of June 30th, 2009, had a
network spread over 555 cities and towns comprising 1,308 Business
Locations .at June 30th, 2009, company had 5,57,373 registered
customers.
In 2006, the Company placed 9.48% of its equity with two leading
private equity investors based out of the US – New Vernon Private
Equity Limited and Bessemer Venture Partners. The company got listed
on BSE and NSE on September 9, 2007. The issue which was priced at
Rs.825 per share (face value Rs.5 per share) got an overwhelming
response and was subscribed 27.18 times in turbulent market conditions.
The issue gave a return of 21% on the date of listing. As of end of
financial year 2008, the group net worth was Rs.7 bn and market
capitalization as of March 31, 2008 was Rs.19 bn.
Credit rating agency Crisil has assigned the highest rating of P1+ to
the Company’s short-term debt program.
Mission of company
To be the most respected and preferred private equity manager in the mid
size corporate segment
Products and services



Equity

24

In keeping with its tradition of personalized service, Motilal Oswal
Securities Limited provides Customized Equity Advisory Group to
clients based on their profile. Equity Research is an inherent strength of
MOSt. Converting that research to advice is the main function of Equity
Advisory. The investment ideas identified by the research team are
presented and communicated with conviction to clients by advisory team.
MOSt Equity Advisor proactively helps you take informed equity
investment decisions and build a healthy portfolio giving the best fit to
your investment and trading needs.



Derivatives
Futures & options are derivatives, which use equity as their

underlying. Hence Equity Advisory Group (EAG) will also act as
advisors for F&O & help take informed decisions while trading in these
derivative instruments. Since derivatives instrument provide good
leverage opportunity, it is a great tool for speculation. Leverage is a
double edge sword for which one requires an equity advisor. The advisors
will also help with various strategies like Bull Spread, Bear Spread,
Cover call writing, hedging strategies etc. This is to help to make better
trading returns. Portfolio management
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd brings with more than 2 decades of
experience & expertise in equity research and stock broking. Motilal
Oswal Securities Ltd is one of the leading portfolio service providers,
with asset under management worth Rs. 590 Crores.



Online trading
Clients trade online through “MyBroker platform”. Broker with

complete research support from MOSL which helps the clients to make
right decision at right time. They can choose trading a/c which suits their

25

trading habit’s & preference and trade anywhere, anytime. Buying and
selling is as easy as click of a button.
Key Features:
 Single platform for multiple exchange BSE & NSE (Cash & F&O),

Mutual Funds & IPO.
 Tick by tick market watch (BSE / NSE / F&O).
 Single window Order placement with instant confirmation.
 Instant funds transfer from any of our 19 listed banks.

 After Market Order (AMO) can place orders in advance before
market opens.
 Call and trade facility.



Mutual funds
Mutual funds offer the ideal platform to participate in the Equity &

Debt market indirectly through professional management. Mutual funds
are becoming the most popular investment vehicles offering various kinds
of schemes with different investment objectives



Commodities
Over the years commodities markets have been experiencing

tremendous progress, which is evident from the fact that the trade in this
segment is standing as the boon for the global economy today. The
promising nature of these markets has made them an attractive investment
avenue for investors.



Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Book Building and Fixed Price Issue are the two types of Initial
Public Offerings (IPOs) through which a public company can raise
money in the capital market.In a book building public issue the bids are

26

received at different price levels and the demand for the issue is built up
over a period of time.



Motilal Oswal Depository Services (MODES)

Today MODES is available at all business locations of Motilal
Oswal. In terms of number of accounts MODES is the second biggest
Depository Participant in CDSL with over 150,000 accounts. Holder of a
MODES account get recommendations on their holdings based on
Motilal Oswal Research rated the "Most Independent Research - Local
Brokerage" by Asia Money Brokers Poll 2006.



Marginal funding
Motilal Oswal Financial Services understand needs and help the
trader to meet their liquidity requirements. Company offer Margin
funding to individuals and corporate. Company provide finance for
investment in primary market issues and also possess expertise in
financing for short-term requirements, to buy securities from
secondary markets.

27

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Reasearch Type
The segment identified for conducting the study is power Sector in
India.

The number of companies selected for the study is Seven.

Analytical study is used to conduct the study.
3.2 Data collection
secondary data is collected from websites, Books and magazines.
3.3 Tools for analysis
• Fundamental Analysis
• Technical Analysis
For fundamental analysis, the following ratios are used:
• EPS
•

DPS

• Payout ratio
•

ROE

•

P/E ratio

• Current ratio
•

Debt- Equity ratio

•

Interest coverage ratio

•

N/P Margin and G/P ratio.

28

For technical analysis, the following tools are used:
•
•
•
•

Relative strength index
5 day moving average
50 day moving average
Line chart and candlestick chart

29

Analysis and Interpretation of data
Analysis of data is a process of inspecting, cleaning, transforming, and
modeling data with the goal of highlighting useful information, suggesting
conclusions, and supporting decision making. Data analysis has multiple facts
and approaches, encompassing diverse techniques under a variety of names, in
different business, science, and social science domains.
ADANI POWER
Table No:4.1.1
Share Price details of Adani Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value
Market capitalization
52 week high
52 week low
Interpretation:

(Cr)

10
13701
70
36

The face value of Adani Power is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization
is Rs 13701 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 70 and the low for
the same is Rs 36.
Table No:4.1.2
Pay Out Ratio of Adani Power
EPS(Earning per share)
Dividend yield %
Interpretation:

0
0

The Earnings Per Share of Adani Power is ‘0’, their dividend yield ratio
is also ‘0’.

30

Table No: 4.1.3
Return on Equity of Adani Power
SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS
NET WORTH
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT)
RETURN ON NET WORTH

2180
3848
6029
-294
-6.35

(%)

Interpretation:
The net worth of Adani Power is Rs.6029. their profit after tax is -294
and their return on net worth is -6.35.
Table No: 4.1.4
Key Ratios of Adani Power
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO
PRICE EARNING RATIO

0.23
3.59
38.68
-9.93
0

Interpretation :
The current ratio of Adani Power is .23 and their debt equity ratio is
3.59. the gross profit ratio is 38.68 percentage and net profit ratio is
-9.93 percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is nil.

Chart No 4.1.1
Line Chart of ADANI POWER

31

Interpretation:
The share price of Adani power is 50 at the beginning of the study. After
that price move upto 68. The share price now showing bullish trend after
the fall from 68 to 40. The upward trend is a good signal to investors

Chart No 4.1.2
Candlestick Chart of ADANI POWER

32

Interpretation:
The chart shows a positive trend of share price of ADANI POWER after
the early fall of share price during the period of study. The share price of
Adani power is 50 at the beginning of the study. After that price move
upto 68.

Chart No 4.1.3
Moving Average Chart of ADANI POWER
33

Interpretation:
5 day moving average of ADANI POWER cut the 50 day moving
average twice during the study period and maintains the critical level.
Now it is above the support line. ADANI POWER shows a positive trend
in its share price.

Chart No 4.1.4
RSI Chart of ADANI POWER

34

Interpretation:
RSI chart of ADANI POWER shows the bullish buying trend of the
stock. Stock is near to the RSI point 70 . it shows the strength of the
stock. This stock touch the 70 level twice during the period of study.

RELIANCE POWER

35

Table No: 4.2.1
Share Price details of Reliance Power
Face value
52 week high
52 week low

(Cr)

10
21164
111
58

Interpretation:
The face value of Reliance Power is Rs 10 each. Their market
capitalization is Rs 21164 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 111and
the low for the same is Rs 58.
Table No: 4.2.2
Pay Out Ratio of Reliance Power
Dividend yield %

0.38
0

Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Reliance Power is .38, their dividend yield
ratio is also ‘0’.

Table No: 4.2.3
Return on Equity of Reliance Power
SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS

2805
13296

36

NET WORTH
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%)

16103
310
0.85

Interpretation:
The net worth of Reliance Power is Rs.16103. Their profit after tax is 310
and their return on net worth is .85
Table No: 4.2.4
Key Ratios of Reliance Power
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
PRICE EARNING RATIO

45.26
0.05
3OO.62
204.80
3.25
198.55

Interpretation :
The current ratio of Reliance Power is 45.26 and their debt equity ratio is
0.05. The gross profit ratio is 300.62 percentage and net profit ratio is
204.80 percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 3.25.

Chart No 4.2.1
Line Chart of RELIANCE POWER

37

Interpretation:
The reliance power stock shows bearish trend in the early stage of study.
Now the movement of stock price shows a recovery trend. Share price of
RELIANCE POWER is 100 at the beginning of the study. After that price
down upto 60 level. Now the stock shows recovery trend from the massive
fall.

Chart No 4.2.2
Candlestick Chart of RELIANCE POWER

38

Interpretation:
The reliance power stock shows down trend in the early stage of study.
The stock price fall from 101 to 60 during the period of study. Now the
stock is in recovery trend.

Chart No 4.2.3
Moving Average Chart of RELIANCE POWER

39

Interpretation:
Reliance power stock shows negative trend in the early stage. The share
price break 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE only once during the period
of study.Now the stock price is above the 50 DAY MOVING
AVERAGE. It shows positive trend in the end of study period.

Chart No 4.2.4
RSI Chart of RELIANCE POWER

40

Interpretation:
RSI chart of Reliance power shows the bullish buying trend . The Stock
now move to the RSI point of 70 . it shows the buying trend of the stok.
The stock down upto 60 point level twice during the period of study.

41

TATA POWER
Table No: 4.3.1
Share Price details of Tata Power
Face value
52 week high
52 week low

(Cr)

1
21583
113
87

Interpretation:
The face value of Tata Power is Rs 1 each. Their market capitalization is
Rs 21583 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 113and the low for the
same is Rs 87.
Table No: 4.3.2
Pay Out Ratio of Tata Power
Dividend yield %

3.97
1.37

Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Tata Power is 3.97, their dividend yield ratio is
also 1.37.

Table No: 4.3.3
42

Return on Equity of Tata Power
SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS
NET WORTH

237
11720
11957
1169
10.09

Interpretation:
The net worth of Tata Power is Rs.11957. Their profit after tax is 1169
and their return on net worth is 10.09 percentage.
Table No: 4.3.4
Key Ratios of Tata Power for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
PRICE EARNING RATIO

0.95
0.64
32.27
13.64
4.27
22.90

Interpretation :
The current ratio of Tata Power is 0.95 and their debt equity ratio is 0.64.
The gross profit ratio is 32.27 percentage and net profit ratio is 13.64
percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 4.27.

Chart No 4.3.1
Line Chart of TATA POWER

43

Interpretation:
Tata power stock shows bearish trend in its share price. The stock shows
a massive fall in its share price from 112 to 92 during the study period.
First half of study period the stock shows a positive trend. After that the
stock fall upto 90 level. Now stock trading at the maximum low level.

Chart No 4.3.2
Candlestick chart of TATA POWER

44

Interpretation:
First half of study period the stock shows a positive trend. After that the
stock fall upto 90 level. Now stock trading at the maximum low
level.Tata power stock shows bearish trend in its share price. The stock
shows a massive fall in its share price from 112 to 92 during the study
period.

Chart No 4.3.3
Moving Average Chart of TATA POWER

45

Interpretation:
5 day moving average of Tata power is below the 50 day moving average
line. The price of this stock is below the support price .The stock price
will show a good trend only after it resist the 50 day moving average line.

Chart No 4.3.4
RSI Chart of TATA POWER

46

Interpretation:
RSI of TATA POWER is 40 in the last period of study ,it shows the
bearish selling trend of stock. The chart shows negative trend of stock
price during the period of study. The stock only cut 70 point level once
during the period of study.

47

CESC
Table No 4.4.1
Share Price details of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value
52 week high
52 week low

(Cr)

10
4202
345
252

Interpretation:
The face value of CESC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
4202 cr. The highest value for 345 week is Rs 252 and the low for the
same is Rs 58.
Table No 4.4.2
Pay Out Ratio of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Dividend yield %

49.46
1.48

Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of CESC is 49.46, their dividend yield ratio is
also 1.48 percentage.

Table No 4.4.3
48

Return on Equity of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS
NET WORTH

125
5806
6011
554
12.10

Interpretation:
The net worth of CESC is Rs.6011. Their profit after tax is 554 and their
return on net worth is 12.10
Table No 4.4.4
Key Ratios of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
PRICE EARNING RATIO

2.12
0.67
27.80
11.65
3.04
6.80

Interpretation :
The current ratio of CESC is 2.12 and their debt equity ratio is 0.67. The
gross profit ratio is 27.80 percentage and net profit ratio is 11.65

Chart No 4.4.1
Line Chart of CESC

49

Interpretation:
CESC stock shows bullish trend in its share price. The chart shows the
strength of the stock in its share price. The CESC stock now trading at
330 level after the recovery from 270.

Chart No 4.4.2

50

Candlestick Chart of CESC

Interpretation:
The chart shows the trend of share price CESC. In the last stage, the stock
shows possative trend in its price. Now the stock trading at the maximum
level.

51

Chart No 4.4.3
Moving Average Chart of CESC

Interpretation:
Share price of CESC once cut the support and it lead to a fall in its price.
The support prices for the stock are 315 and 288. Now the share price is
above the 50 day moving average line. The stock shows bullish trend in
its price.

Chart No 4.4.4
RSI Chart of CESC
52

Interpretation:
RSI of CESC shows positive buying trend of stock. RSI of stock is now
above the 70 level, shows the bullish trend in the stock price. The
company only reached 30 point level twice during the period of study.

NHPC

53

Table No 4.5.1
Share Price details of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value
52 week high
52 week low

(Cr)

10
24601
29
14

Interpretation:
The face value of NHPC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
same is Rs 14.

Table No 4.5.2
Pay Out Ratio of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Dividend yield %

2.09
3.50

Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of NHPC is 2.09, their dividend yield ratio is also
3.50.

Table No 4.5.3
Return on Equity of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
54

SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS
NET WORTH

12300
14052
26353
2771
10.88

Interpretation:
The net worth of NHPC is Rs.26353. Their profit after tax is 2771 and
their return on net worth is 10.88

Table No 4.5.4
Key Ratios of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
PRICE EARNING RATIO
Interpretation :

1.41
0.63
84.05
49.02
11.28
9.56

The current ratio of NHPC is 1.41 and their debt equity ratio is 0.63. The

Chart No 4.5.1
Line Chart of NHPC

55

Interpretation:
During the period of study, the share price trend is downward. The share
price falls from 29 to 18. The first half of the study the stock price shows
upward trend after share price reached Rs 30, the share price down
sharply upto Rs 20. Now the stock trading at Rs 20.

Chart No 4.5.2
Candlestick Chart of NHPC

56

Interpretation
The chart shows the bearish movement of stock during the period of
study. The first half of the study the stock price shows upward trend after
share price reached Rs 30, the share price down sharply upto Rs 20.

Chart No 4.5.3
Moving Average Chart of NHPC

57

Interpretation:
The chart shows the bearish trend of NHPC stock. The stock now moves
below the 50 Day Moving average. The massive fall of share price from
29 to 18 can’t recover in short time.

Chart No 4.5.4
RSI Chart of NHPC

58

Interpretation:
RSI chart shows bearish selling trend of stock. RSI point of last period
shows 34 point, it give the clear-cut idea of negative movement of that
particular stock.

POWERGRID
Table No 4.6.1
59

Share Price details of Powergrid
Face value
52 week high
52 week low

(Cr)

10
52084
124.45
101.2

Interpretation:
The face value of POWERGRID is Rs 10 each. Their market
capitalization is Rs 52084 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 124.45
and the low for the same is Rs 101.2.
Table No 4.6.2
Pay Out Ratio of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
Dividend yield %

9
1.87

Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of POWERGRID is 9, their dividend yield ratio
is also 1.87.

Table No 4.6.3
Return on Equity of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS

4629
18858
60

NET WORTH

23487
3254
14.50

Interpretation:
The net worth of POWERGRID is Rs.23487. Their profit after tax is
3254 and their return on net worth is 14.50
Table No 4.6.1
Key Ratios of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
PRICE EARNING RATIO

0.74
2.10
90.81
32.43
3.37
12.5

Interpretation :
The current ratio of POWERGRID is 0.74 and their debt equity ratio is
2.10. The gross profit ratio is 90.81 percentage and net profit ratio is
32.43 percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 3.37.

Chart No 4.6.1
Line Chart of POWERGRID

61

Interpretation:
The share price of Powergrid shows a bullish trend during the last period
of study. The chart shows negative trend of price in the early period. The
upward trend in last period is good signal to investors.

Chart No 4.6.2
Candlestick Chart of POWERGRID

62

Interpretation:
The price movement of stock shows down trend in the early stage. Now
the trend is positive for POWERGRID stock. The share price of
Powergrid shows a bullish trend during the last period of study. The
upward trend in last period is good signal to investors.

Chart No 4.6.3
Moving Average Chart of POWERGRID

63

Interpretation:
POWERGRID’s 5 day moving average cut the support line only once
during the period of study. Now the share price of company is above the
support line. Support price for the stock is 108. If it loss this strong
support there may be a fall in its price.

Chart No 4.6.4
RSI Chart of POWERGRID

64

Interpretation:
RSI of powergrid stock is 70 above during the 9 th period, after that it
come down into 45 level. 9th period is the idele time to buy
POWERGRID stock.The 10th perid shows 45 point level.that doesn’t
show eihter a possative or a negative trend.

65

NTPC
Table No 4.7.1
Share Price details of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value
52 week high
52 week low

(Cr)

10
127763
175
136

Interpretation:
The face value of NTPC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
same is Rs 136.
Table No 4.7.2
Pay Out Ratio of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Dividend yield %

13.75
2.58

Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of NTPC is 13.75, their dividend yield ratio is
also 2.58.

Table No 4.7.3
66

Return on Equity of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL
RESERVE AND SURPLUS
NET WORTH

8245
65054
73291
9223
13.07

Interpretation:
The net worth of NTPC is Rs.73291. Their profit after tax is 9223 and
their return on net worth is 13.07

Table No 4.7.4
Key Ratios of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO
DEBT EQUITY RATIO
GROSS PROFIT RATIO
(%)
NET PROFIT RATIO
(%)
PRICE EARNING RATIO

2.10
0.66
26.94
14.76
8.19
11.26

Interpretation :
The current ratio of NTPC is 2.10 and their debt equity ratio is 0.66. The
Chart No 4.7.1
Line chart of NTPC

67

Interpretation:
The stock price NTPC falls in every rise. The stock shows negative trend
in its price in the early stage. The stock price fall from 170 to 140 during
the time of study. Now the stock trading at 150 level.

Chart No 4.7.2
Candlestick chart of NTPC
68

Interpretation:
NTPC stock price shows a down trend in the early stage of study.The
stock shows a recovery trend in the last stage. The stock price NTPC falls
in every rise. Now the stock trading at 150 level.

Chart No 4.7.3
Moving Average chart of NTPC

69

Interpretation:
5 day moving average of NTPC cut twice the resistance line of 50 day
moving average. The stock shows positive trend in its price. The support
price of NTPC is 149. If the stock loss its support price it may lead to a
fall in its price.

Chart No 4.7.4
RSI chart of NTPC
70

Interpretation:
RSI of NTPC stock shows 30 point level in 10 th period of study. It shows
bearish selling trend of that particular stock.RSI of 9th period is above the
70 point level, so 9th period is idle time to buy that particular stock

71

5.1 FINDINGS
• Table No 4.2.4 shows that the profitability ratios are high in
RELIANCE POWER while considering other securities selected
for the study.
• Table No 4.1.3 shows ADANI POWER have negative return on
equity.
• Table No 4.1.1 indicate that the Current share price of ADANI
POWER is affordable one to investors and it is low risk scrip.
• Table No 4.3.4 shows the Liquidity ratios are affordable in TATA
POWER than any other stocks under study.
• Table No 4.4.2

shows that the CESC have high EPS (49.46

rupees) than other stocks followed by NTPC .(13.75 rupees)
• Table No 4.7.3 shows the RETURN ON NETWORTH high in
power grid followed by NTPC
• Table No 4.5.2 shows the Dividend yield percentage high in NHPC
stock

•

Chart No 4.4.4 shows the CESC and ADANI POWER stock shows
a bullish trend as per RSI chart.

72

•

Chart No 4.3.3 and 4.5.3 shows that the TATA POWER, and
NHPC, stocks now trading below the critical line of 50 day moving
average.

•

Table No 4.3.1 shows Share price of TATA POWER shows
negative trend during the study period.

•

Chart No 4.1.3 shows FIVE DAY MOVING AVERAGE shows a
bullish trend in ADANI POWER, RELIANCE POWER & CESC
stocks.

•

MOVING AVERAGE shows mixed trend in all the stocks selected
for the study,so we can’t predict the share price trend of power
sector as a whole.

73

5.2 SUGGESTIONS
• Fundamentals of all power stock are not strong, as per the financial
statement year ended 2012
• Movement of TATA POWER, and NHPC shows a weaker trend.
The stocks now trading below the critical line so that an investor
can move from these stocks.
• ADANI POWER, RELIANCE and CESC shows bullish trend in
its share price and it is advisory to hold these shares.
• Investor can buy CESC stock in a long term prospective.
• It is better to book profit on NTPC & POWER GRID stocks even
though they trading above the 50 day moving average.(RSI Chart
shows bearish trend).
• It is advisory to an investor, should not depend only on one tool,
rather one has gone for other chart patterns to get confirmation for
buy or sell signal.
• The risk is common for all securities. The scrip that is having low
price may also be subject to high risk. The main reason is that
market is unpredictable. So the investor must invest carefully.
Since the risk is involved in every scrip, greater emphasize is given
to return in each investment

74

5.3 CONLUSION
The study deals with share and share trading gives a general idea
about the analysis of stocks. The analysis carried on two basis,
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Technical analysis shows a
short term trend based on historical data and fundamental analysis helpful
for the decision making for long term investment. From the analysis it is
found that the charts prepared on the basis of the share price, with the
support of technical tools shows all the trends and variations as
interpreted in the theory. In the analysis using moving average it is found
that if the price is lying above the moving average, the scrip is in a
bullish trend if the price lying below the moving average the scrip is in
bearish trend. Technical analysis ignores the actual nature of the
company. Technical analysis is based solely on the chart that is to say
price and volume information. The investor has to invest wisely on the
scrip which gives high return with most possible risk.

75

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