Mark Rosegrant 2020 Conference on "Leveraging Agriculture for Improving Nutrition and Health" February 11, 2011

1. Global Diet Change
Implications for Agriculture and Nutrition
Mark W. Rosegrant
Director
Siwa Msangi
Senior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division

2. Projected Food Prices: Increasing Scarcity
Based on IFPRI IMPACT Scenarios
250 2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
200
150
100
50
0
Wheat Maize Rice
Notes: 2010 = 100; CC = climate change
www.ifpri.org

3. Non-food Competitors in Production
 Demand for biofuels and bioenergy
 Emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration
 Conservation and biodiversity
Energy
Food
Water Land
www.ifpri.org

4. Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Supply drivers Demand drivers
Climate change Population:
9 billion people in 2050
Water and land
scarcity Income growth:
Africa, not just Asia and
Latin America
Science and technology
policy Urbanization:
in 2008 50% urban
Investment in in 2050 78% urban
agricultural research
Policy and governance
reform
www.ifpri.org

5. Major Consequences
 Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods
 Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables
 Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils
 Rapid growth in meat consumption and
demand for grains for feed
 Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock
 Intense pressure on land and water
www.ifpri.org

6. Dietary and Food System Approaches
to Improving Nutrition
Reducing post harvest losses
• 10% for grains; 25% for perishables
• Economic recoverability limited
Wasting less food
• 20% wastage in households
Consuming fish from sustainable stocks
Reducing consumption of meat and dairy products
www.ifpri.org

7. Key Question
Would reduction in meat consumption in richer countries
improve food security in developing countries?
www.ifpri.org Page 7

8. Dietary Change Is Not Easy
CAMPAIGNS
Advocacy, educational, and public relations campaigns
PROMOTE LOW-MEAT MENUS
Cafeterias, schools, hospitals, and
other public-sector institutions
POLICIES
Taxation and subsidy policies to increase the cost of meat
compared to other food products
www.ifpri.org

9. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Less meat in rich countries = more in developing countries
100 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
Kilogram per capita (per year)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
China Brazil High-income Sub-Saharan Developing
countries Africa minus China &
Brazil
www.ifpri.org
Source: IMPACT model projections

10. Feed Demand for Coarse Grains
Less meat = Lower feed-grain demand
1,400
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
1,200
Millions of metric tons
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
China Brazil Developing High Income World
minus China &
Brazil
www.ifpri.org
Source: IMPACT model projections

11. World Prices of Grains
Reduced feed grain demand = Lower grain prices
300 2000
2030 baseline
250
US$ per metric ton
200
150
100
50
0
Rice Wheat Maize
www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections

12. Per Capita Food Grain Consumption
Lower grain prices increases demand
180
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
160
Kilogram per capita (per year)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
High-income countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing minus China &
Brazil
www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections

13. Per Capita Calorie Availability
Lower prices increase calorie access
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
3,600
3,400
Kcal per capita (per day)
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
China Brazil Developing High income
minus China &
Brazil
www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections

14. Child Malnutrition
Small improvement
160 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
140
Millions of children aged 0-5
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
All Sub-Saharan Africa All Asia Developing countries
Source: IMPACT model projections
www.ifpri.org

15. Lower Meat Production Saves Large
Areas of Pasture and Cropland
250 HIC only HIC + China Brazil
Area saved (millions of hectares)
200
150
100
50
0
China Brazil Developing High income World
minus China &
Brazil
www.ifpri.org Source: IMPACT model projections

16. Conclusions
 Halving of meat consumption in richer countries has
• small nutrition benefits in developing countries
• big land saving impacts
 Dietary change is a useful tool for improved food
security and nutrition
 But transformative progress requires much broader
investment in agricultural and rural development
www.ifpri.org