"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Tassos Haniotis, Director, Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

1. Food Security Foresight:
some reflections
Partnership for Impact
IFPRI-European research Collaboration
Brussels, 25 November 2013
Tassos Haniotis
Director
Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission

2. From the shifting balance of constant needs…
Food
Population, income
and demand drivers
Policy challenges
in globalised
markets
Fibre
Supply constraints
and productivity
Feed
2
Fuel

3. … to a framework for analysing food security challenges
Macro linkages
(GDP, interest
rates, exchange
rates)
Domestic and trade
policies (from G-2 and
3 pillars to G-20 and
export bans)
Weather variability
increased due to
climate change
Food supply and demand
interaction
Energy links (high
energy prices,
biofuels)
Financialisation
of commodities
3

4. Long term commodity price trends
(World Bank MUV-deflated indices, 2005 = 100)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Agriculture
Fertilizers
Energy
Source: World Bank. Note: 2013 figures are forecasts as of September 2013.
4
Metals & minerals
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
0

5. Cumulative price change
Period
2000-12
2006-12
Agriculture
+
+
Fertilisers
+ 286 %
+ 115 %
Energy
+ 261 %
+
55 %
Metals & minerals
+ 217 %
+
44 %
Wheat
+ 275 %
+ 163 %
Maize
+ 337 %
+ 245 %
Rice
+ 278 %
+ 185 %
Soybeans
+ 279 %
+ 220 %
Sector (real)
82 %
61 %
Crops (nominal)
5

6. Crude oil, Brent ($/bbl)
Source: World Bank.
6
Crude oil, WTI ($/bbl
Coal, Australian ($/mt)
2013M01
2012M01
2011M01
2010M01
2009M01
2008M01
2007M01
2006M01
2005M01
2004M01
2003M01
2002M01
2001M01
2000M01
1999M01
1998M01
1997M01
1996M01
1995M01
1994M01
1993M01
1992M01
1991M01
1990M01
1989M01
1988M01
1987M01
1986M01
1985M01
1984M01
1983M01
1982M01
Long term energy price trends
(World Bank nominal prices)
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0

7. Natural gas, US
Source: World Bank.
7
Natural gas, Europe
Liquefied natural gas, Japan
2012M12
2012M01
2011M01
2010M01
2009M01
2008M01
2007M01
2006M01
2005M01
2004M01
2003M01
2002M01
2001M01
2000M01
1999M01
1998M01
1997M01
1996M01
1995M01
1994M01
1993M01
20
1992M01
1991M01
1990M01
1989M01
1988M01
1987M01
1986M01
1985M01
1984M01
1983M01
1982M01
Long term natural gas price trends
(World Bank nominal prices, $/mmbtu)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

8. World annual growth in consumption/population (%)
* Based on estimations for 2011-2012.
Size of bubbles represents total average consumption over a period.
8
Sources: FAO, USDA

9. What is new in the Foresight debate?
What sort of "insecurities" drive the current policy debate?
•
•
•
Recent commodity price developments: volatility, co-movement and level
Price volatility and price co-movement are declining
However, the agricultural price level is expected to stay higher in the future
Three challenges linked to research and modelling needs
•
•
•
Global: energy-link shifts from biofuels to gas, impacts input use and competiveness
Developing world: dilemma from opposite impact of high prices on rural vs urban poor
Developed world: how to address ″jointness″ between private and public goods?
Role of research in getting the "problem definition" right
•
•
•
Important to anticipate future problems, instead of assuming continuation of past ones
Need to target research to broader, often inter-disciplinary, policy-relevant issues
Need to communicate in simple, targeted and result-oriented ways with policy makers
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10. Thank you
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