1. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
GLOBAL
TALENT
RALLY International workforce mobility
Sally Khallash, sk@cifs.dk

2. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Facts on Estonia
• Demographic development:
– 2009 fertility rate: 1,63, and life expectancy: 75,04.
– Demographic labour pressure index: 0,79  Lowest yet!
• More people leave than enter Estonia.
– 2009 Net migration = -7,74 per 1000 people.
– Most emigrants are young families, graduates and young
professionals.
– Both foreign born and nationals in age group 20-35 represent
the large majority of emigrants!
• Very selective immigration policies. Between
2004-2009, number of:
– Short term employment permits was halved, from 500 to 220.
– Work permits was reduced to a quarter, from 2000 to 500.
– Residence permits for employment doubled, from 500 t0 1050.

3. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
ARE YOU
ABLE TO
ATTRACT?

4. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Estonias Competitiveness?
Sweden Finland Germany Estonia Lithuania Latvia
Need 16 4 15 24 13 8
Attract 7 20 14 24 32 29
Access 9 16 24 59 33 55
Overall 7 16 17 43 29 41
rank
Source: World Economic Forum (2008): Global Migration Barometer

5. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Economic Developemt
GDP Growth 2000-2010
Estonia lower
15%
19%
96%
61%
33% 28%
Source: www.imf.org - IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)

6. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Knowledge Accumulation:
New Knowledge Hotspots
Estonia 1,9%
Source: UNESCO 2009

7. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Demographic Change:
An aging world
Estonia
Source: UN Population Perspectives, 2008

8. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Migration in Estonia
6000
5000
4000
3000
Number of migrants
2000
Immigration
1000 Emigration
Net migration
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
Year Source: Statistics Estonia
Source: Statistics Estonia, SOURCE: PO R01

9. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
NEED FOR
NEW
STRATEGIES New Segments and Profiles

10. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Current Strategy:
Attract Estonians from abroad
Re-entry shock! Positive outcomes:
-Feel alienated. re-socialisation
-Barriers to re-
integration. -World-mindedness
-‘Yoyo movers’. -Increased creativity
-Increased tolerance
within organizations and
in society.
Strategy:
- Attentive to
symptoms. Negative outcomes:
- Manage -Alienation & emigration
expectations, -Spread of negative
prepare arrival, stay information to other ex-
active, create pats and Estonian
network & safety
diasporas.
net.
Source: Re-entry shock:torn between two cultures by Martha Denney & Erin Eckert

11. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The Skilled and Talented
Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006

12. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Females, singles and their nannies
• Females
– ½ of migrant population are females.
– 60% of students in Europe & US and nearly 70% in
developing countries are females.
– 40% more skilled females than males among migrants.
• Singles
– Mobility does not fall according to life cycle.
– Strong need for low skilled labor.
• Low skilled labor force
– Migration myth  we only need highly skilled labor.
– In US: 2 pct. of labor force but 22 pct. of domestic
help.
Source: UN Population Database + Cortes and Tessada (2007): Cheap maids and Nannies
– how low skilled are changing labor supply of highly skilled women.

13. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The Mobile Millennials
Source: PWC, ’Talent Mobility 2020’

14. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Grandparents??
Source: Intelligence Group: Get ready for the international recruitment rally, 2009

15. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Different needs in different life phases
Life- Apprx. Age Number 2020 Needs and challenges
stage
Free 1 20-35 years Slightly more Nomads, searching for
(‘90-’00) Millenials identity, self-realization,
big cities.
Parent 35-55 years Fewer Pressed for time and money,
(‘70-’80) Gen. X selective, balance between
work and family.
Free 2 55+ years More New opportunities,
(‘60ies) Baby Boomers meaning, consumption
options, health, self-
realization.
Source: CIFS MR#3, 2010 ’Global Talent Rally’ + PWC ‘Talent Mobility 2020’

16. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Think strategies with time frames
Low-Skilled Medium-Skilled Highly-Skilled
Permanent Rural Migration Political refugees Political Refugee
Asyllum seeking Health Care
Political/Environmental
Refugee
Forced Migration
Elder/Retired
Temporary Au-pair Youth Youth
Service sector- Construction Sector Health Care
hospitality Health Care IT-Sector
Elder Students
Circular Au-pair Youth Researchers
Service sector- Construction Sector Global talents
hospitality Health Care Generation Y
Seasonal Labor Creative Class
Resourcesfull Elder
Source: CIFS (3 / 2010): Global Talent Rally

17. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
THANKS
FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!
Sally Khallash, sk@cifs.dk