The report includes an analysis of ICT trends for 2020, the year of 5G commercialization. There will be a change in the value chain of the ICT industry since 2020, so this report can confirm this. See more than 160 pages of reports for comprehensive information on 5G changes. (This English version report was created using Google Translator.)
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2020 ICT Forecast
1. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) -
ICT 2020 FORECAST
[When to respond to global recession through 5G!]
2020.01.25. | DONGHYUNG SHIN
"Use it comfortably, share a lot, and be sure to quote the source when you cite it."
English version translated by Google Translator
[DRAFT]
2. Index I. Change in External Business Environment
II. Changes begins with 5G
III. ICT Industry Value Chains
V. Changes in Service Infra due to 5G
VII. In Summary
VI. Changes in devices due to 5G
[Reference] Changes in components due to 5G
IV. Changes in Services due to 5G
3. I. Change in External Business Environment
0. Preface (Global Recession vs. Mobile communication tech development)
1. Global Recession
2. Mobile Communication tech development
3. Big Issues on Business trends(Made-in China, AI2030, 4TH
Industrial Revolution)
4. Big events in 2020(U.S. Presidential Election, Tokyo Olympic)
5. In Summary
4. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 4
0. Preface
Global Recession, which occurs every 10 years, and the evolution of
mobile communication technology generation are interlocking with each
other.
Evolution of Mobile Tech
Before and after
1990
Before and after
2000
Before and after
2010
Before and after
2020
3G (IMT-2000) 2001 (Japan)
2G 1991 (Finland)
4G
(IMT-Advanced)
2009 (Sweden,
Norway)
5G (IMT-2020) 2019 (South Korea)
Global Recession
Asian Financial Crisis 1998
Financial Crisis 2008
2019
US Short- and Long-Term
Interest Rate Reverse
Technology
generation
Year of
Commercialization
Recession Year of occurrence
5. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 5
1. Global Recession
The US government bond short- and long-term interest rate reversal took
place in 2H19, raising concerns about the financial crisis. In addition, the
forecast for future global economic growth is less than 3%.
Recession signal
① Concerns about the coming recession
※ Source: The largest interest rate reversal in 12 years… "Recession within a year" warning (Money Today, 2019) (LINK) ※ Source : Automotive Industry Outlook(IHS MARKIT, 2019)(LINK)
Global Economic Growth Rate
Interest rate reversal between short-term government bonds
and long-term government bonds is considered a sign of
short-term economic RISK. The interest rate reversal, which
appeared as a concern for the short-term recession even
before the 2008 US financial crisis, is the basis.
In some emerging economies, the global economic
growth rate is expected to be less than 3.0%.
US Treasury 10-year and 2-year interest rate differences
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
2003.07.03 2019.08.27(U.S.A. Time)
◀ 2008 Financial
Crisis
2006 ~ 2006 ▶
Government bond
interest rate reversal
occurs
6. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 6
2. Evolution of Mobile Communication Tech.
Mobile communication technology is bringing new innovation every 10
years.
IMT-2020
② Foundation of new innovation
IMT-AdvancedIMT-2000Technology generation
Killer Application Example IoT, A.I., XRMobile APPMultimedia
Standard technology formulation year 201620021992
Initial commercialization year 201920092001
First commercialized country and carrier
Korea
3 MNOs
Sweden, Norway
Teliasonera
Japan
NTT-DOCOMO
(5G)(4G)(3G)
7. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 7
3. Big Issues on Business trends
ICT is not only a means of global hegemony competition, but also a
solution to economic and social problems and will continue to innovate.
Major Trends in the ICT Environment
① Outline
Fourth Industrial Revolution
China’s manufacturing and AI
innovation
Japanese SOCIETY 5.0
American innovation growth
(Advanced Manufacturing,
5G, etc.)
Global trend of autonomy
and automation based on
hyper connectivity
Secured its position as the
world's top 1 country from 2025
to 2030 based on advanced
manufacturing and A.I.
Addressing energy and social
safety nets in an environment
of reduced population
US wants to keep global IT
market leadership.
In the midst of global innovation environment of autonomy and automation, 5G, advanced
manufacturing, A.I. Competition will accelerate IT innovation, and through ICT innovation, nations
and governments will move forward in smart societies, such as reducing population, reducing labor
force, and solving energy and social safety net problems.
8. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 8
3.1. Fourth Industrial Revolution
The 4TH
Industrial Revolution means social, political, and economic
changes that would bring with autonomy and automation.
4TH
Industrial Revolution Definition
① Outline
Cyber-Physical System
Extreme Automation/Autonomy Extreme Connectivity
Social, political and economic change
9. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 9
Autonomy and automation means complementing or replacing the head
and arms and legs, which are the basis of human labor
Compositions of Autonomy and Automation
[Reference] Autonomy and Automation
Thinking Action
10. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 10
Autonomy and automation will evolve to complement and gradually
replace human labor.
Automation evolution stage
[Reference] Autonomy and Automation
Complementation of labor force Substitution of labor force
- Increase the amount
of baggage you can
carry.
- Increases the amount
and speed of luggage
you can carry.
- Some roles, some complements,
sharing roles with people
- Complete replacement of human role
11. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 11
Connectivity removes the constraints of time and space by eliminating the
gap between the reality and the virtuality of people, things and
information.
Value of connectivity
[Reference] Super Connectivity
- the real movement of information
and people and things
- High time and cost to real travel.
- Information moves through virtual, but
still people and things actually go
directly
- Information travel time and costs have
fallen to zero, which reduces other
costs
- Remotely control objects through virtually
exchanged information, reducing the need
for direct movement
- Remotely control things to reduce time and
cost of travel to zero.
※ Source : Extreme automation and connectivity : the global, regional, and investment implications of the fourth industrial revolution(2016)
12. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 12
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, in turn, meant the collapse of the labor
force boundary between humans and machines through autonomy and
autonomy, and the collapse of the boundary between the real and virtual
worlds with hyper-connectivity.
② evolution of 4TH
industrial revolution
1ST
IR
(Late 18C, 1790s1)
)
2ND
IR
(20C early, 1910s2)
)
3RD
IR
(Late 20C, 1990s3)
)
4TH
IR
(21C, end of 2010)
range Real World Connections
Link between real andvirtual world
Physical coupling Chemical Integration
Automation
Subject
Machine
(loom machine →)
massive production
(Ford T →)
IT Artificial Intelligence
meanin
g
(Velocity↑) (Quantity↑,Price↓, Velocity↑)
(Expand the scope of participation in industry activities)
(Producer → Consumer Expansion) (Human-machine boundary collapse)
Connectivity
Subject Train, ship car Internet Big Data, IoT
meanin
g
Link between specific regions,
such as countries
Connect to the front of your
home
Individual connections regardless
of location
Link up to individual devices
Energy source Steam (coal, etc.) Petroleum (gasoline, diesel) Electric Renewable
※ Source : Extreme automation and connectivity : the global, regional, and investment implications of the fourth industrial revolution(2016)
1) Loom Machine 2) Ford T modrl mass production, 3) Appearance of WWW
13. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 13
3.2. China
China has established a three-step strategy to enter the Global
Manufacturing Group 1 and is approaching it step by step.
Made In China 2025
① Made in China 2025
※ Source: 「China Manufacturing 2025」 strategy (2015.06), Industrial Economy (KIET, Kang Ji-yeon)
Stage 1
(2015-2025)
Stage 2
(2025-2035)
Stage 3
(2035-2045)
- Raising the level of Chinese manufacturing to
Germany and Japan by 2025 (World's second
largest manufacturing group)
· Manufacturing level 1 group (US), 2 group
(Germany, Japan), 3 group (UK, France, Korea,
China)
① Until 2025
· Improve labor productivity · Convergence of IT and
manufacturing industry · Reduction of energy
consumption rate and pollution emission of major
industries
② by 2020
· Significantly improve IT competitiveness in
manufacturing industry
- Improve the overall level of Chinese
manufacturing to level 2 of manufacturing
- To be the leader in the second group in
China's superior industry
- Enter into the global manufacturing
industry tier 1 group
Innovation
capability
Qualitative
performan
ce
IT and
manufactu
ring
convergen
ce
Eco-friendl
y growth
National Manufacturing Innovation Center (15 in 20, about 40 in 25)
14. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 14
China has selected the top ten growth engine industries, which in turn will
continue to increase productivity through autonomy, automation
increased connectivity and IT in the non-IT sector.
[Reference] Top 10 growth engine industries
China's Top 10 Growth Engines
※ Source: Refer to 「China Manufacturing 2025」 strategy (2015.06), Industrial Economy (KIET, Kang Delay)
Next Generation Information and Communication
(Semiconductor, Communication, S / W)
High precision numerical control and robot
Aerospace equipment
Advanced track traffic equipment
Marine Equipment and High Technology Ships
Energy saving and new energy car
Power equipment
New material
Agricultural machinery equipment
Biomedical and High Performance Medical
Devices
- Based on A.I. and hyper
connection
- Automation of factory and
daily life
- Expansion of connectivity in
daily life, off-line and non-IT
areas, ITization, and
autonomy
Future
Chinese
Top 10
industries to
be growth
engines
Autonomy
&
Automation
Expand
connectivity
Application
the non-digital
domain to
Digitalization
implication
15. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 15
After reviewing the status of the top ten growth engines, China will
reinforce software and materials competitiveness.
China's Top 10 Industrial Competitiveness in 2017
[참조] 10대 성장 동력 산업
※ Source : China Manufacturing 2025 Announces New Roadmap(2018), KOTRA(LINK)
Chinese
telecommunicati
on equipment
Orbital
equipment
Power
equipment
Integrated circuits
and dedicated
equipment
Civil aviation
equipment
Advanced NC
Plant Machinery
robot
Aerospace
equipment
Offshore Process
Equipment & High
Tech Ships
New energy
cars
Agricultural
equipment
New material
Strategy
material
Strategy new
material
Global leading
Group
Top-level technological progress
A latent
group
Medical
equipment
① Reflect the rapid development of operating system
and industrial S / W
- Remarkable development such as big data,
internet of things, cloud computing, edge
computing
② Add contents to major materials and exclusive
manufacturing facilities
- Strengthen the competitiveness of materials in
the aerospace equipment field
- Restructuring for offshore process equipment to
suit both global competitive environments
implication
16. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 16
China considers artificial intelligence (AI) as a driving force for the
advancement of the intelligent economy and society, and is planning and
making efforts to establish the world's leading nation by theory,
technology, and application level by 2030.
AI 2030 development stage
② AI 2030
Stage 1
(~ 2020)
Stage 2
(~ 2025)
Stage 3
(~ 2030)
※ Source : Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan issued by State Council(Department of International Cooperatoin Ministry of Science and Technology, P.R. China,, 2017)(LINK), The New Chinese Revolution(Felipe, 2018)(LINK)
- The overall AI technology and application level have developed into a global
leader
- AI technology is emerging as a new engine of economic development.
※ AI creates US $ 22.5 billion market value and US $ 150 billion indirect effect
- AI basic theoretical level finds a new breakthrough, AI technology and
application level is set to become the global leading level
- AI contributes to the development of intelligent society and the role of power
source to upgrade the overall industry and enable economic reconstruction
※ AI creates US $ 60 billion market value and US $ 7.5 billion indirect effect
- AI basic theory, technology, and application level all improved to the global
leadership level
- China will develop into an intelligent economy and society and become a
center for innovation of global AI
※ AI creates US $ 1.5 billion market value and US $ 1.5 trillion indirect effect
Support System for AI Development
China's Four Key Agendas for AI Development
Apart from ① hardware (chipset industry and supercomputer), ② database
(AI algorithm core), ③ R & D investment, attracting AI experts, ④ creating a
strong ecosystem for AI commercialization in China
← Competitiveness
of AI between US
and China
← China's market
base is likely to win,
but its technological
competitiveness is
half that of the US
17. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 17
3.3. Japan
Japanese government proposed Society 5.0, called the Super Smart
Society, which aims to solve social problems by building smart
infrastructures such as energy and social safety nets.
Background
① Society 5.0
Innovation to solve social challenges
① Digital innovation has also brought
about improved convenience, but it
has brought about the complexity of
society and the negative aspects of
the digital society.
Ex) digital fatigue and addiction, new
surveillance society, distrust society
and infodemix
② Reduced labor productivity and
reduced workforce
③ Other social issues such as energy,
social safety nets, transportation, and
aging urban development
Super Smart Society
- Digitization is only a means; it is
human.
- To date, technology-driven innovations
have contributed to the development of
society.
- To maintain this in the future, It is
necessary to focus on building a
society that can make you happy and
increase your self-esteem.
SOCIETY 5.0
18. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 18
The Japanese government has set up five strategic areas that take into
account social issues and strengths in Japan.
Five strategic areas seen from social problem and strategic strengths
[Reference] Society 5.0 Five Strategic Areas
※ Source: 'Abe's Growth Roadmap <Society 5.0> and Implications (IBK Institute for Economic Research, 2018.04)
Category Social problem Strength(S) and weakness(W)
① Healthy
longevity
Aging, Reduced Population,
and Burden
(S) Robot, sensor technology, field
medical data collection
② mobility
innovation
Aging population, island
population, transportation
(S) Traffic data network and driving data
collection
③ Supply chain
innovation
Difficulties in hiring in
manufacturing
(S) JIT(Just In Time) Lean
Manufacturing,Production robots and
devices
(W) Software
④ Regional Infra
improvement
Difficulties in hiring in
Construction, Natural Disasters,
Infrastructure Aging
(S) Sensor technology, large-scale civil
construction for Tokyo Olympics
(W) 5G Infrastructure, Island
⑤ Fintech
Long-term low interest rates
weaken bank profitability
(S) Cryptocurrency Market Development
(W) Prefer cash payment, aging IT
burden, OS technology
Social
Problem
High
Low
Strategic strengthLow High
① Healthy
longevity
② Mobility
Innovation
④ Regional infra
improvement
③ Supply chain
innovation⑤ Fintech
19. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 19
3.4. United States of America
Although the former regime, the United States plans to support nine
strategic areas through the American Innovation Strategy.
Policy direction
① Strategy of American Innovatino
※ Source: United States announces amendments to the US Innovation Strategy and budget plan (LINK)
① Expanding R & D
investment and laying the
foundation for long-term
economic growth
② Support 9 strategic
areas to solve national
challenges and create
wealth
③ Create an environment
to improve the system for
public R & D performance
and promote private
innovation
Advanced
manufacturi
ng
Precision
medicine
Brain
Initiative
A high-tech
car
Smart city
Clean
Energy
Energy
Efficiency
education
Technology
space
Technology
Next
generation
computing
Component 9 strategic areas
Investing in the building blocks of innovation
Fueling the engine of
private sector
innovation
Empowering a nation
of innovations
Creating
quality jobs
and lasting
economic
growth
Catalyzing
breakthrough
s for national
priorities
Delivering
innovative
government
with and for
the people
Ingredientesfor
innovation
Strategic
initiatives
20. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 20
[Reference] 9 Strategic Areas
FG
Advanced
manufacturing
Precision
medicine
Brain Initiative
A high-tech car
Smart city
Clean Energy
Energy Efficiency
Education
technology
Space technology
Next generation
computing
- Reduce costs and time for manufacturing companies,
new products drive economic growth by promoting
development and start-ups
- Technical support to better understand the patient's
condition and determine effective treatment
- How brain cells work, identify neural circuit
interactions
- Promotion of technology to understand the human
brain
- 90% reduction in traffic accidents by developing
driverless cars
- Improve the quality of life by collecting and utilizing
city information such as traffic and crime
- Reducing carbon emissions and strengthening energy
security through the development of renewable
energy, clean energy and high efficiency
- Cultivate quality and performance of education by
developing innovative education methods using
broadband and cloud
- Significantly reduce the cost of space flight through
cooperation with the private sector, promoting the
growth of the civil aviation industry
- Development of super computer (HPC) to improve
public service quality, economic growth, health and
stability
- MNMI, a public-private cooperation organization for the
development of innovative manufacturing technology
- Enlarged to 15 (currently 9)
- Research on new medicine and medical data sharing
technology of NIH, NCI, FDA, etc. by investing $ 215 million
in 2016
- Invested $ 300 million in 2016 to support research by NIH,
NSF, DARPA, etc.
- Increased investment in research on operation and safety
standards, improved regulations for technology application,
etc.
- According to the smart city plan, safety, energy,
transportation, etc.
- 20th city participation technology utilization research
- In 2016, invested $ 7.6 billion in clean energy and
sustainable transportation technology
- Connecting 99% students with high speed internet by '18
- Promotion of ConnetED Project, Establishment of Higher
Education Research Bureau
- $ 6 billion investment plan by 2017, $ 1.2 billion investment
in 2016
- Develop HPC in accordance with the National Strategic
Computing Plan (`15).
- Nationally supported
Autonomy &
Automation
Expand
connectivity
Application
the non-digital
domain to
Digitalization
Field Vision Policy direction Direction
21. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 21
The U.S. government recognizes the importance and contribution of the
manufacturing industry and seeks to recapture manufacturing leadership
from the agenda of advanced manufacturing.
background
② Advanced manufacturing
※ 출처 : STRATEGY FOR AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED MANUFACTURING(WHITE HOUSE, 2018.10)(LINK)
VISION
GOALS
- To secure and maintain US leadership in
high-tech manufacturing as well as industrial
sectors to ensure national safety and economic
prosperity
① Develop and spread new manufacturing
technology
② Education, training and connection of
manufacturing labor force
③ Expand the capacity of the manufacturing
supply chain in the US
Manufacturi
ng
importance
- Manufacturing is an engine for US economic and national
security
· Manufacturing varies from aviation industry to
biopharmaceutical industry
Manufactu
ring
contribute
- Manufacturing jobs mean jobs entering the middle class
· 350,000 new manufacturing jobs created after the Trump
administration
- Manufacturing is a key industry that drives investment in
other industries
American
Weakened
location
- US manufacturing continues to decline in the 21st century
· 20th century US manufacturing is a global economic driver
· The share of manufacturing in the US labor force was 8.5%,
lower than the 2008 level.
- Most recent investments focused on S/W-oriented startups
Progress
22. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 22
[Reference] 3 GOAL
※ 출처 : STRATEGY FOR AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED MANUFACTURING(WHITE HOUSE, 2018.10)LINK)
Development
and
dissemination of
new
manufacturing
technology
- Seize the future of intelligent manufacturing
systems
Manufacturing
labor
Education,
training and
connection
Expanding
manufacturing
supply chain
capacity in the
US
- Develop world class raw materials and processing
technology
- Access to medical products through manufacturing
in the US
- Maintain leadership in semiconductor design and
production
- Strengthen the opportunity for food agriculture
manufacturing
- Recruit and grow future manufacturing workforce
- Expand and update career and technical training
channels
- Expand apprenticeship and access to accredited
certification
- Match with industry of technical labor force
- Expanding the role of small and medium
manufacturers in advanced manufacturing
- Expand the ecosystem of manufacturing innovation
- Strengthen defense manufacturing base
- Strengthening cutting-edge manufacturing for the
suburban community
① Smart & Digital Manufacturing ② Advanced Industrial Robotics, ③ Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence,
④ Cyber Security in Manufacturing
① (low cost) high performance raw materials, ② lamination processing (3D printing) ③ securing essential
raw materials
① low cost manufacturing, ② continuous production (vs. batch production), ③ tissue and organ
bioprocessing technology
① semiconductor design tools and production, ② new raw materials, devices and structures
① processing, testing and tracking systems for food safety, ② production and supply chains to ensure food
safety, ③ cost and function enhancements for bio-based products
① Basic STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) education specialized in manufacturing ②
Manufacturing engineering education, ③ Partnership between industry and academia
① career and technical education, ② skilled technical labor training
① Manufacturing apprenticeship system, ② Apprenticeship and certification program
① diversity of labor force, ② capacity maintenance
① Supply chain growth, ② Increased awareness of cyber security, ③ Public-private partners
① Manufacturing innovation ecosystem, ② New business formation and growth, ③ R & D dissemination
① Disruptive DUAL-USE (Defense and Commercial) Capability, ② BUY AMERICA, ③ Utilize Existing
Support System
① Advanced manufacturing for suburban prosperity, ② Capital, investment and business support
23. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 23
4. Big events in 2020
The 2020 is the year of the Tokyo Olympics and the US presidential
election.
2020 TOKYO OLYMPIC 2020 US presidential election
07.24 ~ 08.09 11.03
※ 출처 : Urban planning and the democratic debate field(Planetizen, 2019)(LINK)
24. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 24
5. In Summary
The 2020 is an important time to prepare for new innovation. The
economic uncertainty is so high that short-term stability and long-term
perspectives are the beginnings of new change, and therefore have a
complex meaning of capturing both.
Mid to long term Short term (2020)
Advent of the global recession
+
5G infrastructure proliferation and innovation environment
+
Super Connectivity & Super Autonomy & Automation
+
Global hegemony competition between the US and China
+
Solving Social Problems of States and Governments
Japan Tokyo Olympics
+
US presidential election
+
...
The 2020 is a complex time to overcome short-term uncertainty and start new changes in the long run.
25. II. Changes begin with 5G
1. The definition of 5G and its Implications
2. 5G tech features
3. New industrial changes throughout 5G
4. Global 5G Proliferation
5. Progress of 5G by Country
6. Approach toward 5G as innovation
26. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 26
1. The definition of 5G and its implication
5G is a mobile communication technology standard that can
simultaneously implement high-speed communication environment and
IoT communication environment that guarantees low power and stability.
Technical features
① Overview
※ Source : Unleashing the Potential of 5G(LINK)
Broadband
(eMBB)
Massive IoT
(mMTC)
Mission-Critical IoT
(URLLC)
High Speed & High Capacity
High Density
High Energy
Efficiency
Low Latency
High Reliability
20 Gbps
① Environment for using large capacity and high speed
data with no difference between wired and wireless
- Peak 20 GBps, Whenever 100 MBps
- Users can experience 8K or XR content even in mobile
environment.
② 5G provides IoT or environment for the general
public
- Super high speed evolved from 4G in terms of high speed
and high capacity
- Super connection, ultra low power, ultra stability and ultra
low delay
- Enable connectivity beyond smartphones-5G will lay the
foundation for the IoT era
③ In summary, 5G is an OMNI CONNECTIVITY technology
that provides three technical characteristics of eMBB,
mMTC and URLLC in one technology and network.
implication
27. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 27
5G makes IoT services possible with cellular networks, which was only
possible with dedicated networks in the 4G era. In addition, the ultra-high
speed and high capacity of 5G is expected to encroch the Wi-Fi area.
4G era connection environment
② 4G vs. 5G difference
10m 100m 1km 10km
bps
kbps
Mbps
PAN LPWAN
SigFox, LoRa
Weightless
Wi-Fi Cellular
UMTS, HSPA
LTE, LTE-A
10m 100m 1km 10km
bps
kbps
Mbps
PAN
Zigbee,
Bluetooth
Wi-Fi Cellular
5G
Cellular network is
encroching Wi-Fi
zone
Zigbee,
Bluetooth
Connection environment in the 5G era
28. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 28
Just as smartphones have absorbed a variety of personal multimedia
devices, 5G will also absorb a variety of connectivity. 5G is expected to
bring innovations such as the changes that smartphones have made to
the world.
Like absorbed into a smartphone
③ Absorb with one net and technology
MP3 player
Digital Camera
PMP
telephone
computer
game console
navigation
smartphone
LPWAN
Cellular
Wi-Fi
Public network
5G
5G absorbs a variety of connectivity
29. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 29
2. 5G Tech features
In the 5G environment, one network and technology can cover the use of
broadband environment, multi-device IoT environment, and
purpose-optimized IoT environment.
① OMNI CONNECTIVITY
※ Source : 5G Core Technology-E2E Network Slicing: What, Why and How?(NetMania)(LINK)
Virtualization with one network
4G network: Phone, communication service
(voice, text, Internet), correspondence industry
5G network requirements: accommodate all
terminals, all services, all industries
Transition 4G to 5G
each dedicated 5g networks?
30. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 30
Network slicing is a network technology that separates one physical core
network infrastructure into multiple independent virtual networks according to
service types, and provides various customized services through each slice.
Network Slicing
② Network slicing
※ Source : Understanding 5G International Standards(LINK)
Telecom /
Internet
Logistics /
Agriculture /
Climate
Car / Factory /
Medical
Communication and Internet Network Slice
Logistics, Agriculture, Climate Network Slice
Car, factory, medical network slice
eMBB
mMTC
URLLC
31. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 31
If perfect 5G services become full scale, SA must be universalized.
NSA
③ NSA vs. SA
4G Core
LTE NO
4G Core
LTE
5G Core
NO
Control Plane
Data Plane
TO
32. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 32
In order to implement ultra-low latency service, not only 5G network but
also cloud service is important for infrastructure configuration. However,
current centralized cloud services have limited implementation.
Edge Computing Background = Cloud Computing Technology Limitations
④ Edge-computing
※ Source : Beyond Cloud Computing… Edge Computing Concepts and Cases(LINK )
Effect Industry Description
Safety
Autonomous Vehicle
- Instant network delays or data transmission errors can lead to
fatal accidents.
Air engines, drones
Immediat
eness
Offshore Oil Drilling Facility
- The industrial machine itself is located far away from the central
server, making it difficult to connect with the central server.Water injection pump located in
the desert
XR
- Human audiovisual response is so sensitive that even a few
hundred ms differences can affect VR immersion.
Biometric (voice, face) recognition
Efficiency Smart factory
- Smart factories in manufacturing companies generate large
amounts of sensor data and require efficient processing.
Explosive
growth in data
traffic can push
the limits of
centralized
cloud services
33. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 33
Edge computing places data near devices and devices at the end of the
network rather than sending it to a centralized cloud for ultra-low latency
services.
Edge computing concept
④ Edge-computing
※ Source : Beyond Cloud Computing… Edge Computing Concepts and Cases(LINK )
property Cloud computing Edge computing
Delay time Kim short
Service area Internet Local network nearby
Regional
identification
impossible possible
Hackability height lowness
Communication
method
Centralized Distributed
Number of servers Less plenty
Mobility support Limited Wide range
Whereas cloud
computing is a way of
controlling the user's
device primarily in a
central data center,
edge computing is a
technology where
computing is done
directly on the user's
device.
- Edge computing involves placing processors and
data near devices and devices at the network end
rather than sending them to a central data center
computing platform (cloud).
- It is evaluated as a computing technology that
provides immediateness and stability rather than
using the cloud because data is analyzed and
applied on site at the edge where data is collected.
- Provides technology that can cope with situation
without delay, so it is effective in environment
requiring fast response speed
- For autonomous vehicles, aviation engines, and
drones that actually require stability, short latency
of edge computing is an important requirement
because momentary network delays or data
transmission errors can lead to fatal accidents.
implication
34. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 34
5G uses millimeter-wave that enables large amounts of data quickly and
provide low latency services.
Millimeter wave and Sub 6 GHz
⑤ mm Wave & Sub 6 GHz
※ Source : 5G 밀리미터파에 대해 알아야 할 (거의) 모든 것(Qualcomm Korea, 2018)(LINK)
mm Wave
Sub 6 GHz
- Wide coverage and capacity for a variety of 5G use
cases
· Faster and more volatile data rates to support
more users indoors and out.
- Millimeter wave can transmit broadband
· Waves are not transmitted far away
· There is a problem that is easily blocked.
※ The signal may be disturbed even if you place
your hand on the part of the smartphone where the
antenna is located.
- Sub 6 GHz band is the spectrum for wide 5G
coverage.
- If millimeter waves are suitable for high density
urban areas and congested indoor environments
35. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 35
3. New industrial changes throughout 5G
5G is characterized by eMBB, mMTC, and URLLC. and 5G will enable
"Ultra Realistic Contents Contexts" through XR, and “Autonomy and
automation environment” through Data and A.I.
Examples and implications with 5G
① Overview
eMBB
(Broadband)
mMTC
(Massive IoT)
URLLC
(Mission- Critical IoT)
5G tech spec
Peak data download
speed: 20 Gbps
Data traffic latency :
< 10ms
Device density :
1 million / km2
② Data Driven Innovation
↓
A.I. , Automation
8K, XR
Sensor network
(Metering, agriculture, building, etc)
Remote surgery,
Smart Factory, etc
Business case
① Ultra Realistic Contents Contexts
Implication
☞ OMNI Connectivity
36. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 36
3.1. Ultra realistic content environment
The combination of 360-degree contents from 5G eMBB, immersive
contents from mMTC, and interactive contents from URLLC are expected
to provide 5G’s ultra-realistic content contexts.
① Overview
eMBB
mMTC
URLLC
360 degree content
Download 1 2.5GB UHD
movie in 1 second (1byte = 8bits)
Immersive Contents through
Wearable Device
Interactive content that feels
like you're in the field, even
when you're away
Content usage environment Ultra-realistic content
37. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 37
Content applied to XR, a concept encompassing AR, VR, and MR, is
enabling the realization and consumption of content through high quality
video, sound, and intuitive UI.
Characteristics of XR Applied Content
② XR Content
Orientation Tracking
360˚ Contents
Position Tracking
Low Latency
Spatial Sound
※ Source : Boundless photorealistic mobile XR over 5G(LINK)
38. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 38
If mMTC and URLLC-based IoT are combined with eMBB-based XR, it is
possible to realize ultra-realistic content that satisfies the five senses.
XR with IoT
③ Grafting of IoT
← Air conditioning, humidifiers,
dehumidifiers, scent generators, etc.,
can be linked to the content to feel
the temperature, humidity, and high
aroma in realistic content.
← Chairs or clothes can be used to feel
the sensation of the realistic content.
39. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 39
Highly realistic content consumption can be consumed on a large colorful
display or XR. Therefore, the use of surreal content with XR can threaten
the large display market.
④ Threatened display industry
Vs.
Large display AR/VR/MR(LINK)
40. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 40
Solutions are emerging to provide an XR shopping experience. As a
realistic type, various shopping experiences are possible beyond simple
purchasing experience, which can eliminate the necessity of shopping
mall construction.
ESKO XR SHOPPING SOLUTION
④ Threatened construction industry
Create the store in
Virtual retail store
Environment
(LINK)
Experience the
store in Virtual
Reality
(LINK)
Dynamic Lighting
(LINK)
41. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 41
3.2. Data Driven Innovation
5G will exponentially increase the generation and utilization of data,
including the IoT, enabling connectivity and autonomy.
Autonomy roadmap
① Development stage
Monitoring & Sensing Monitoring & Sensing Monitoring & Sensing Monitoring & Sensing
Control & Actuation Control & Actuation Control & Actuation
Optimization Optimization
Autonomy
Connectivity (5G)
5G Connectivity’s Complementary Assets
- Comprehensive monitoring via
internal sensors and external
sources
- Provides alerts and
notifications of changes based
on monitoring
- Control product / service
functions based on monitoring
results
- Controlled action
- Remote monitoring, control and
operation in connected
environment
- Pre-set algorithms to optimize
product / service operation for
the results of monitoring,
control and operation
- Act on algorithm results
Autonomous product operation
Self-monitoring, controlling and
operating in context,
self-tuning and automation
※ Source : “How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition”, (HBR, 2014)
42. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 42
A.I. robot and 5G will be the foundation for the 4TH
industrial revolution,
enabling independent autonomy of devices, homes, buildings, and cities.
[Reference]
Value Chain
Artificial Intelligence
Robots
(Sensor & Actuator)
ConnectivityAutonomy
↑
Automation 5G
Cyber-Physical System
Extreme Automation/Autonomy
Extreme Connectivity
Social, political and economic change
4TH
Industrial Revolution
43. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 43
5G is expected to expand the autonomously industrial environment based
on unmanned technology by combining IoT and Data & A.I. In various
industries.
② Example
Autonomous Vehicle Smart City Smart Factory & Valuechain
44. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 44
4. Global 5G Proliferation
Korea launched the world's first mobile 5G commercialization in 2019.
And U.S. and China commercialzed 5G as well.
5G Progress in Leading Countries
① Outline
※ Source : 5G Observatory Quarterly Report 4(Up to June 2019)(LINK)
45. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 45
Korea launched the world's first 5G commercialization on April 3,
2019. the penetration of 5G is expected to 9% of all Korean users
in the eight months to end of 2019
Korean 5G subscriber's growth trends
[Reference] Korea's Mobile 5G
Commercialization Status
Subscribers’ shares
9%
※ Source: Again 2012, Big Cycle (Hanhwa Securities) in 8 years (LINK)
46. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 46
North America, China and the UK are preparing mmW above 30GHz. In
addition, the US, EU, China, and Japan are preparing to maximize the
effects of the 5G industry by preparing for sub 6GHz bands.
[Reference] Global Frequency Band
Frequency Band Preparation by Country Millimeter Band Readiness by Country
※ Source : Leading the World to 5G(Qualcomm, 2019)(LINK)
47. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 47
5. Progress of 5G by Country
According to the CTIA data for 19.4 years, Korea fell to the third place by
being pushed by the US. The United States and China jointly ranked first.
① Tier 1 Group
5G Readiness by Country (Version 2019.04)
※ Source : Global Race To 5G - UPDATE(LINK)
48. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 48
China has been contemplating the development of science and industry
technology at the national level using 5G since 2013, and plans to
commercialize 5G in large cities in 2020.
5G development policy
② CHINA
※ Source : China is on the right track to become the winner of 5G(EY, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source : China 5G Development and Policy(MIIT, 2019)(LINK)
In June 2019, MIIT issued a 5G commercial license to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Broadcasting.
year Initiative Contents
Made in
China 2025
13th
Five-Year
Plan
(`16-` 20)
863 Plan (National
High Technology
Research and
Development Plan)
National
Science and
Technology
Major Project
China leads the overall innovation
in 5G mobile communication
technology, and leverages it to
bring about manufacturing
innovation.
China plans to promote the
successful launch and
commercialization of 5G by 2020
- Major national projects to
develop and internalize 5G core
technologies
- Verify and develop 5G
operation plan
- China leads the 5G global
standard
Roadmap for 5G Launch
49. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 49
In order to keep up with China, the US is actively supporting the
government to activate 5G, including frequency and merger conditions.
FCC Movement (5G FAST PLAN)
③ U.S.
Mobile Operator Trends
※ Source: The FCC's 5G FAST Plan (FCC, 2018) (LINK), US FCC's 5G Implementation Strategy (K-ICT Spectrum, 2018) LINK)
Market
Supply
Frequency
Expansion
Infrastructu
re Policy
Reorganiza
tion
Old-fashion
ed
regulatory
modernizati
on
- Auction of high band and mmW frequency is the highest priority
among all frequency supply (28, 24 GHz, 37 GHz, 39 GHz, 47 GHz
auction in progress, and 26 GHz, 42 GHz supply in progress)
- Supplying 2.5GHz, 3.5GHz, 3.7-4.2GHz in the mid band, 600MHz,
800MHz, 900MHz and unlicensed (6GHz, 95GHz) in the low band
- Deregulation to increase private sector investment in 5G networks
and quickly build networks
· To limit small cell expansion, state and local governments set an
upper cost limit for operators and shorten response time for
approval.
- Modernization of outdated regulations to promote digital
opportunities and 5G backhaul for local citizens
· One-Touch Make-Ready for attaching network equipment to
telegraph poles, supply chain integrity for national security,
Internet recovery, etc.
VERIZON
- By 2020, 5G will achieve at least 50% coverage in the
United States.
· 5G service is being provided to 11 cities as of September 19,
but its goal is to launch in 30 cities by the end of the year.
AT&T
-The goal is to deploy sub 6GHz and mmWave-based 5G
services to the national network by the first half of 2020.
-Signed a federal contract worth US $ 6.5 billion for a business
utilizing the 700MHz FirstNet Public Network.
※ FirstNet is to provide wireless data priority to first aid
subjects in an emergency.
T-MOBILE
-The FCC details 5G investments on the terms of the merger
between T-Mobile and Sprint.
· Within three years of the end of the merger or acquisition
process;
97% must be included in 5G coverage.
At least US local population should be included in 5G
coverage using mid-band frequencies, with at least 90% of the
US population at least 100 Mbps, and at least 99% at least 50
Mbps
50. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 50
Korean government selects and focuses on strategic industries and core
services to succeed in the world's first mobile 5G commercialization.
5G + Strategy
④ Korea
※ Source: 5G (Policy Wiki, 2019) (LINK)
Secure initial market and
improve the quality of life of
public by leading public
investment
Test bed creation and industry
enhancement through private
investment expansion
5G service activation and user
protection support through
system maintenance
Fostering innovative
companies and talents at a
global level by creating an
industrial foundation
Globalization of Korea's 5G
technology and services by
supporting overseas
expansion
① Promoting 5 core service demonstrations, ② Supporting leading
public demand creation, ③ Improving the quality of life by
introducing 5G public services, ④ Creating 5G smart city
① Support tax and investment, ② Support early commercialization
by constructing 5G test and demonstration infrastructure, ③
Promote 5G technology commercialization of SMEs, ④ Support 5G
contents market activation, ⑤ Support productivity innovation of
main industry
① Improvement of communication plan and system ② Expansion
of radio resources and improvement of regulation, ③ Construction
of the safest user environment, ④ Innovation of 5G convergence
service regulation, ⑤ Bridge of digital divide and user protection
① Secure global leading technology, ② Strengthen the
competitiveness of the information security industry, ③ Build 5G +
Hallyu foundation, ④ Promote 5G start-up and foster talent
① Support globalization of 5G services, ② Lead global 5G
standardization, ③ Support overseas expansion in connection with
international cooperation
51. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 51
[Reference]
※ Source: Head of telecommunication company, 3 colors with 5G strategy (LINK)
Ranked 1st in the year with 1 million
5G subscribers
CLOUD & 5G as a Platform XR Contents oriented 5G Strategy
Park Jung-ho, president of SK Telecom,
stressed that he will secure 1 million
subscribers by the end of the year, following
stabilization of 5G quality. Park said, "5G
base station is higher than LTE, and quality
stabilization is higher than 4G, so quality will
stabilize by the end of this month." The
number of domestic subscribers of 5G
service, the world's first commercialized on
April 3, exceeded 1 million in total of three
mobile communication companies as of
October 10, 69 days later. Although the
exact number of subscribers is not disclosed
among individual carriers, the industry
accounts for about 40% of SK Telecom, 30%
of KT, and 30% of LG U +. Park, in
particular, said at the meeting that the
company is the industry's number one
operator, "We are particularly concerned
about expanding 5G coverage."
Chang-Gyu Hwang, the chairman of KT,
proposed the keyword '5G as a Platform'.
Hwang said, “5G should be used as a
platform and not as a network.” The cloud
market in the 5G environment should be
preempted by Korean companies. In fact, KT
is investing 500 billion won to strengthen the
competitiveness of the cloud market. By
2023, the company plans to preoccupy the
5G cloud market by fostering new
investments of 500 billion won in the cloud
business and 1000 experts. In particular, it
plans to expand the domestic cloud market
to 7 trillion won in 2023 by providing
customized services to the public and
financial sectors to create a huge cloud
ecosystem. Hwang added, "85% of the 5G
standards are owned by Korea. We need to
take the lead through the standard."
Ha Hyun-hoe, vice-chairman of LG U +,
suggested that 5G content needs much
support in terms of 5G expansion. Mr. Ha
said, “The competitiveness of contents such
as virtual reality (AR) and augmented reality
(VR) is important.” “5G content is hard to be
done by just one operator. It will help SMEs
to produce 5G content. We need support,
including open studios and equipment, to
make it happen. ” He especially emphasized
that "our country has great potential due to
the Korean Wave and needs 5G content
production support." Mr. Ha's comments are
in line with LG U + 's 5G business strategy,
which is investing in the 5G content market.
LG Uplus plans to produce 19,000 5G
contents within this year and invest 10 billion
won in AR studio.
`19.08 SKT achieved 1 million
subscribers originally aimed at end of
year, widening gap with second and third
players
52. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 52
To increase the spread in the late 5G commercialized environment,
Japanese government permits private landlords or landowners to build
5G networks privately.
Tracking progress
⑤ Japan
Deploy LOCAL 5G strategy for 5G proliferation
※ Source : Strategy and Activities on 5G Development in Japan and 5GMF(2018)(LINK)
☞ In April 2019, MIC defines 5GHz frequency bands as 3.7GHz, 4.7GHz and 28GHz.
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
R&D Projects
5G test
Rugby World Cup
Commercialization
(Tokyo Olympics)
※ Source: Japanese government (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) 's 5G strategy: 5G self-frequency allocation work that companies
can use as Wi-Fi (NETMANIAS, 2019) (LINK)
Licensed frequency for MNOs
MNOs(NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, Softbank)
[5G Frequency allocation conditions]
MNOs should cover 50% of the nation’s
area with 5G within 5 years!
Local 5G N/W(Builders or
landlords can build their own
network!), because it takes long
time for MNO to build a national
network
Landlords and landowners scattered throughout the country
53. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 53
6. Approach toward 5G as innovation
Expensive sports cars can also be valuable when fully equipped with
well-lit highways and gas stations.
① Overview
Basic approach to Systemic Innovation
Source : “Innovation 3.0” written by Dong Hyung Shin and J. Song(LINK)
54. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 54
If IoT is a sports car that connects various things, Data and A.I.
The oil, gas stations and 5G networks that power sports cars will be the
highways that make all this possible.
5G is as a highway for the supercar
② 5G의 역할
- Supercar is a service experienced
by users. Examples would be IoT
and A.I. grafting services.
- Gas stations and oil are data and
storage that make IoT work
- The highway is a 5G network that is the
foundation for sports cars, gas stations,
and oil to deliver value.
55. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 55
Once disruptive innovation, which completely transforms the existing
world, is stabilized, incremental changes appears with infrastructure
building and gradual change. And when incremental changes faces limits
of changes, new disruptive innovation is coming.
③ Innovation cycle
Industrial Innovation Cycle Model
Source : “Technological Discontinuities and Dominant Design” by Anderson and Tushman(1990), “이노베이션 3.0” 신동형, 송재용 공저, p38 ~ p45
Era of Ferment Era of Incremental Change
Disruptive Innovation Standard de Facto
-Competition between alternative
innovations
-ecosystem creation between each
innovation
-Evolution of Standardized Innovation
-Leverage already created ecosystem
Era of incremental
changes
Era of Ferment
Era of incremental
changes
Era of chaos
Era of incremental
changes
Era of chaos
Disruptive Innovation
56. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 56
In the generation of mobile communication technology, the odd
generation was the emergence of new disruptive innovation, and the
even generation was the role to improve and spread it. 5G is a time when
new innovative services based on IoT and A.I. are conceived.
④ The role of 5G in inovation perspective
Mobile Generation Generation Evolution Roadmap
1G 2G 3G 4G 5G
Disruptive Innovation
Improvement and
expansion of innovation
- Emergence of
mobile phone
- Wide spread of mobile
phone
- Emergence of
smartphone
- Wide spread of smartphone
- Emergence of IoT,
A.I.
Disruptive Innovation
Improvement and
expansion of innovation
Disruptive Innovation
57. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 57
The evolution of the mobile telecommunications era seems to be related
to the central change in connectivity for each generation.
3G(IMT-2000)
[Reference]
4G(IMT-Advanced) 5G(IMT-2020)
The era of Multimedia The era of smartphone The era of IoTs
PC-centric Internet connection
Smartphone-centric Internet
connection
Feature phone's multimedia function
connects to PC
Things like wearables works in
conjunction with smartphone
Connect with PC centered around PC
peripherals
Things work directly with the Internet
PC
Phone
Things
People-internet connection People-thing-internet connection
58. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 58
6G is still under discussion and will be further improved in the future from
eMBB, mMTC, and URLLC perspectives.
⑥ Additional Information
- NS = Not Specified
- Jitter : Period at which signal frequency shifts from ideal position
- pJ/bit = Indicators to Measure Energy Efficiency
- Cell Operation Efficiency
- High Speed
- Lower Latency
- Higher Reliability
- Energy Efficiency
- High Precision
5G vs. 6G(IMT-2030) IMT-2030 Roadmap
Source : 6G : The Next Frontier(2019)(LINK)
60. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 60
1. ICT Market Environment Outlook
The 5G will change whole ICT industrial value chain such as contents &
services, infra, devices.
2020
① Overview
Future
Network
Contents
&
Services
C&S Infra
Devices
5G commercialization (China) and spread 5G diffusion and advancement
GAME Industry(Cloud Gaming & e-SPORTS)
XR(eXtended Reality)
OTT(Over The Top)
IoT(Internet of Things)
Autonomous Vehicle
...
Smartphone OS Enhancement
Intensifying Competition in the CLOUD Market
Robot OS
Edge Cloud spread
Smartphone 5G penetration rate spread
Grafting and optimizing XR, OTT services
Spread various things services
N
C
P
D
C
P
N
D
C-P-N-D
61. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 62
In the next 4-6 chapters, we will look at how 5G will affect C & S, Infra,
and devices.
2020 Industry Key Issues
② Contents to be developed
Main Content
Network
Contents
&
Services
C&S Infra
Devices
- “5G is the AXIs” (5G is the central axis of
world change!)
- Over The Top
- Game
- Autonomous Vehicle (or Automobile)
- eXtended Reality
- Internet of Things
- 5G smartphone OS version upgrade
- (Public) cloud infrastructure advances
- Smartphone OS: AI service enhancement, large
screen service
- Cloud: 5G, IoT, the most important infrastructure
→ Infrastructure center: From device to cloud
- 5G smartphones expand market
opportunities for + Things
- Global smartphone makers' 5G survival strategy
- Smartphone + Peripheral Device Market Growth:
XR, Smart Watch, Speaker
N
C
P
D
C
P
N
D
C-P-N-D
- Global 5G spread
- 5G + new industry spread
- Highly realistic content environment
- Data driven change
- 5G leadership competition by country in earnest
62. IV. Changes in Services due to 5G
0. Preface
1. OTT
2. Game
3. Autonomous Vehicle
4. XR(eXtended Reality)
5. Internet of Things(Data, IoTs, A.I.)
63. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 64
0. Preface
5G will affect OTT, GAME, AV, XR, and IoT in the Contents & Service
area
5G spread
5G
eMBB
mMTC
URLLC
Contents & Service 영역의 Hot Item
5 (O)
G
X
Is
OTT
GAME
AV
XR
IoTs
Over The Top
CLOUD GAMING
eSPORTS
Autonomous Vehicle
eXtended Reality
Internet of Things
A
64. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 65
1. OTT
The global OTT market is expected to reach $ 52.4 billion in 2020, and
subscription-type OTT market will grow more than the transaction-type.
Global OTT Market Trend (b $)
① Market Overview
※ Source : Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2019–2023(PWC, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source: Battlefield of platform and contents (SK Securities, 2019) (LINK)
Global Subscriber Status by S-VoD Platform
(`19.1Q)
CAGR 12.1%
65. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 66
NETFLIX and DISNEY attract the most attention in the global OTT
market.
Spotlight Global OTT
② Competition Status
※ Source: Ace Story IR (Ace Story, 2019) (LINK))
- OTT service alliance combining
POOQ, SKB's OKSUSU
- 300 billion original content
investment plan
- Global expansion plan
- Open Apple TV Channel, Apple
TV +, a video streaming
service
- Provides premium channels
such as HBO, Showtime,
Sports, and Add-ons
- invest 2 billions USD initially in
original-content
- Produce and localize exclusive
original content for each
country
- Global OTT secured content
based on the most investments
- Use Disney, Pixar, Star Wars,
Marvel and National
Geographic content
- The number of service
subscribers will increase from 6
to 90 million by 2012
- Invested KRW 80 trillion in
acquisition of 21 Century Fox
and became the largest
shareholder in Hulu
66. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 66
NETFLIX has expanded more globally than US with virtuous cycles of
subscribers, money and contents.
US & International Subscriber Trends
① NETFLIX
※ Source : The opening of the streaming era (Samsung Securities)(LINK)
※ Source : Changes in global OTT market competition and business strategy due to Disney +, Apple TV +, and
entry (KISDI, 2019)(LINK)
NETFLIX Status
Content
Enhancement
Enough
Investment
Subscriber
Inflow
Expanding
global market
Original content
Interactive video
(Bandersnatch)
67. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 67
Disney Plus, expected to launch in November 19, is expected to become
a strong competitor to Netflix from 20 years based on Disney's strong IP
and content.
Extension OTT market with strong IP and content
② Disney
※ Source : TheWaltDisney IR(2019)(LINK)※ Source : 플랫폼과 컨텐츠의 전장(SK증권, 2019)(LINK)
Walt Disney Pictures, Disneynature, Disney Animation Studios, Pixar,
Marvel Studios, Lucasefilm, 20th Century Fox, Fox 2000
Pictures, Fox Searchlight Pictures, 20th Century Fox Animation, Blue Sky Studios
Distribution, Disney Music Group, Disney Theatrical Group
Walt Disney Television, ABC Entertainment, Disney TV Studios, ABC Studios, 20th
Century Fox Television, Fox 21 Television Studios, Fox Television Animation, ABC TV
Stations, Disney Channels Worldwide, Disney Television Animation, FX Networks, FX
Productions, National Geographic Partners
Studio
Media
Network
Strong IP
&
Contents
OTT Platform
(Cross-selling)
+
transmission stop
68. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 68
DISNEY is attracting attention as the most threatening new entrant in the
OTT market with all three bits, including streaming technology, OTT
services and content.
DISNEY expands its business to OTT
[Reference]
※ Source : 마블에서 OTT까지 디즈니 제국의 확장은 어디까지?(KPMG, 2019)(LINK)
Streaming Tech
IP, Contents Power
Toward New Ruler of OTT market
Most threatening new entrants in the
OTT market
69. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 70
APPLE launches APPLE TV Channels, which allow you to watch various
paid channels on APPLE TV APP and APPLE TV +, which provides
APPLE’s original content. There is a high concern that APPLE TV + will
not be able to supply content well.
Apple TV Channels
③ APPLE
※ Source: Announcing a colorful and boring Apple roadmap (Samsung Securities, 2019) (LINK)
Apple TV+
- A service on the Apple TV app that allows you to subscribe and
watch affiliate paid channels within the Apple TV app.
· For example, subscribe to one of Apple's affiliated HBO paid
channels within the Apple TV app and watch them without
installing the HBO app.
· Pay for each channel by subscribing rather than integrated
subscription service.
- Apple's subscription video streaming service.
- Starting in November 19, $ 4.99 per month, including family
sharing, $ 4.99 per family per month.
- Until now, it is known to provide only its own content without
supplying external contents.
- Amazing Sprite by Steven Spielberg, Morning Show with
Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston, Steve Carrell
☞ There is still a high level of concern over content supply
and demand.
70. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 71
To cope with global OTT operators' entry into the market, POOQ, the
three terrestrial contents alliance, and OKSUSU, the OTT service of
mobile communication market No. 1, merged to form WAVVE.
wavve establishment background
④ Wavve
※ Source: Approved merger of 'Pook-corn' ... imminent launch of integrated OTT platform 'wave' (IITP, 2019)
(LINK)
waave synergy
※ Source: Korea's largest OTT 'WAVVE', ready to shake (Shinyoung Securities, 2019) (LINK)
Competition of Korean OTT market will be more fiercely,
because 5G will boost OTT market and NETFLIX is gaining
more market share. As well as DISNEY+ can enter Korean
OTT market.
POOQ
- 3 terrestrial companies' content
production capabilities and
know-how
- Huge K-Content IP and Global
Distribution Rights
- Korea's largest paid subscriber
OKSUSU
- Powerful sports broadcast, huge
movie / overseas series
- Rapid market penetration through
30 million SKT subscribers
- SKT plan bundling and terminal
preload
Compete in the Korean market with global OTT competitors in terms of
content, funds and subscribers
- Produce high quality contents by attracting 3 terrestrial companies' content production capacity and
investment
- Supplying domestic and overseas contents at low cost using SKT's content supply and demand power
- Bundling promotion / promotion and mobile communication plans through SKT branches / agents nationwide
- Eliminate users' data charges by providing 5G zero rating
71. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 71
WAVVE plans to invest 300 billion won for producing original content by
2023, and expand the global market by taking advantage of K-DRAMA.
waave global expansion strategy
④ WAVVE
※ Source : Wavve, Raise an anchor(Samsung Security, 2019)(LINK)
Invest 300 billion won for producing original
contents by 2023
waave original content investment plan
Stage 1
[Service for Overseas
Koreans]
(October, 2019.)
Stage 2
[Service for citizens]
(First half of 2020)
Stage 3
[Direct advance]
(Expected between 21
and 22 years)
- Wave can be used depending on
communication environment when
traveling abroad
- Payment: Domestic payment methods
such as credit card
- Identify content needs and data by
country of citizenship
- Payment: Consider payment methods
such as Google Play and iTunes
- Direct entry
- Consider how to cooperate with local
carriers, OTT, drama producers and
broadcasters
72. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 73
2. GAME
5G's features, such as massive data traffic capacity and ultra low latency,
will contribute to boost cloud gaming and e-SPORTS proliferation
Cloud Gaming
① Overview
※ Source: [5G, I want to know] What can be done with 5G? _Learn how to use
eSPORTS Expansion
CLOUD GAMING
WITH 5G
73. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 74
5G is an enabler that accelerates cloud gaming and eSPORTS in game
industry.
Paradigm Shift in the Game Industry
② Change of Game Industry
※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK)
From To Loser Winner
Buy S/W In-game monetization Paid games Free-to-play
Buy H/W Rent access H/W firms Cloud firms
S/W made for HW S/W for all devices Casual mobile Strong game titles
Play alone Group play Single-player games Multi-player games
Non-watching Spectator n/a e-SPORTS broadcasters
CLOUD GAMING
e-SPORTS
5G
74. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 75
2.1. Cloud gaming
As the network environment improves with the proliferation of 5G, the
cloud gaming market will spread.
Cloud Gaming Market Size (M $)
① Definition
※ Source : NEXT-Generation Cloud Gaming Market Report-2019(IHS, 2019)(LINK)
Cloud game definition
※ Source: Issue Report, Cloud Gaming Service Status (NIA, 2019) (LINK)
Cloud gaming refers to a service that a game service
company runs a game on a cloud server and transmits an
action screen through streaming. The host app running on
the user's device sends mouse’s or keyboard’s input to
the server and the game runs on the server, making it
possible to run any high-performance game on a device
that can handle video properly even if the user's device is
poor. .
CAGR
41.4%
USD 2.5B
75. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 76
Cloud gamings are expected to expand further as they benefit both game
developers and gamers.
Advantages of a game developer or publisher
② Background
Benefits of the Customer Perspective
① Cloud games can expand the game market itself.
- Once processed in the cloud, play on any screen
② Cloud games enable developers to better manage their
work.
- Everything is stored securely in the cloud
③ In the long term, cloud games provide an environment
that does not require game development that is specific
to a platform.
- Of course, if cloud services are expensive, game
developers need to develop for specific hardware
platforms.
① Gamers can play the game immediately.
- No shipping or download-save required.
② You can experience various games.
- Once the cloud game market is opened, various kinds
of games will ride quickly.
③ Mobile games have been limited by the processing
power of mobile phones. With cloud games, high-
performance games can be implemented on any device.
④ Users experience seamless UX. Gamers can stop
playing on one device and continue on another.
CLOUD
GAME Spread
76. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 77
5G always guarantees 100Mbps, enabling 4K video streaming cloud
games.
Required speed for each compression according to the resolution
[Reference]
※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK)
4K CLOUD GAMING service
available with MP4 and H.265
compression
implication
77. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 78
The transition to cloud gaming is changing the types of ownership,
payment types, and monetization methods in the gaming industry.
Game ecosystem evolution
③ Game ecosystem evolution
※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK)
software
Payment in game
New monetization
hardwar
e
hardwar
e
hardwar
e
Cloud
gaming
FTP FTP
sports
AdTech
futureNowpastLong ago
Buy
Rent
Free
78. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 79
There are many factors that will delay cloud gaming latency, if the overall
value chain of Cloud-Transit-Client does not evolve.
Source of Cloud gaming latency
[Reference] Delay Factor
※ Source : VIDEO GAMES:CLOUD INVADERS(Citi, 2019)(LINK)
Cloud gaming latency(milliseconds)
Process delay
(Cloud server)
Payout delay
(Thin Client)
Transit
Response
delay
Processing
delay
Playout
delay
Network
delay
Memory
copy
Format
conversion
Video
encoding
Packetizati
on
frame
Buffering
video
decoding
screen
rendering
79. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 80
Google has launched Stadia, a cloud gaming service. Stadia can be a
game delivery platform or a game gamer advertising platform with
Youtube.
Google Stadia-Youtube virtuous cycle
④ Service Provider_Google
※ Source : Google plans to use its Stadia cloud-gaming service to gain a central position in the digital gaming value chain(Analysys mason,
2019)((LINK)
The first gateway
for game
developers and
publishers to enter
the platform
Access to games
and content
developed by
stadia.dev.
Shared
User-generated
contents created
through Stadia
Getting people's
attention through
YouTube strengthens
developers to develop
via stadia.dev and
publishers release
games through Stadia
The more
games you
have, the more
gamers you can
collect.
As more gamers share
more content on
YouTube, Stadia can
attract more users and
developers.
Google Stadia
- Google's service to deliver 4K,
60fps video games with cloud
streaming
- Chrome browser allows access to
desktops, smartphones, smart
TVs, tablet PCs, and Chromecast.
- Integrate with Youtube and upload
content directly to Youtube.
80. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 81
Microsoft and Nvidia are also expanding cloud gaming services with their
own capacity.
Microsoft’s Project xCloud
④ Service provider
※ Source : Project xCloud: everything we know about Microsoft's cloud streaming service(Techradar, 2019)(LINK)
Nvidia GeForce Now
- The service provides games based on the subscription fee for
games uploaded on Nvidia server.
- The service can be used with Nvidia Shield, macOS, MS Windows
and Androids OS-based devices
- The service was released since 2015
- The service is hosted in data centers in North America and Europe,
the server is equipped with Nvidia graphics card.
- Leverage existing XBOX services with Microsoft's cloud gaming service
· Use gaming services by streaming regardless of device
· XBOX games are being made available on PCs and smartphones beyond the
console. Project xCloud goes beyond that to the cloud
- To overcome latency, the biggest challenge for cloud gaming services through
the global Azure data center.
- A strategic number that wants to scale game services and cloud services
simultaneously
81. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 82
Korean MNOs, which firstly commercialized 5G in the world, are seeing
cloud gaming as a killer application, so that they are collaborating with
Cloud gaming platform providers.
LG Uplus & NVDIA Geforce Now
[Reference] Activities of Korean MNOs
SKT MS XBOX
- Stream XBOX games to smartphone and tablet PC.
- Play immediately without downloading and installing the game.
82. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 83
2.2. eSPORTS
Consisting of teams, players, tournaments, tournament organizers, game
publishers and broadcast platforms, e-SPORTS is growing rapidly every
year.
e-SPORTS Ecosystem
① Overview
※ Source : e-SPORTS PLAYBOOK FOR BRANDS(Nielsen, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source : Global e-SPORTS market report(NewZoo, 2019)(LINK)
e-SPORTS Market Size Trend
22%
83. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 84
Just as eSPORTS is in the spotlight with high-speed internet networks,
mobile e-SPORTS is expected to expand further with 5G.
High Speed Internet and e-Sports
[Reference]
PC network is expanding with
the spread of high speed
internet network (1998 ~)
With the popularity of StarCraft,
popular pro gamer appeared,
The broadcaster became
popular as the game
broadcasted.
In July 1999, an unofficial
corporation named Korea
e-Sports Association was
launched.
84. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 85
Korea is leading global eSPORTS country in terms of penetration
between eSPORTS and game market.
Penetration of eSports in Global Top 10 Countries
[Reference]
country eSports Market (M $) Game Market (M $) Penetration rate (%) Relative Market Maturity
Korea 191 3,051 6.26% 100
Brazil 23 687 3.35% 53
Canada 47 1,790 2.63% 42
Russia 58 2,305 2.52% 40
China 235 15,336 1.53% 24
United States of America 227 19,621 1.16% 18
France 39 3,734 1.04% 17
Germany 33 4,262 0.77% 12
England 25 4,487 0.56% 9
Japan 34 11,643 0.29% 5
※ Source : ESPORTS FACT & INSIGHT 2019(Yoshitaka Sakamoto, 2019)(LINK)
85. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 86
3. Autonomous Vehicle
The key features of 5G are exactly matching the requirements of the
connected car, and 5G will help to boost autonomous vehicles and MaaS
services in the future.
① Connected Car Development
5G’s Features
Ultrafast
(eMBB)
Connection
(mMTC)
Ultra low delay
(URLLC)
More
comfortable
More
efficient
More
secure
- The car is a space for relaxation and
entertainment
· IVI (In-Vehicle Infotainment) → ADAS
(Advanced Driver Assistant System) → AV
(Autonomous Vehicle)
- Eliminate social waste of resources, time, and
streets due to inefficient ownership and
operation
· Car / Ride Sharing, On-demand ride hailing
and Robo Taxi / Bus
- Rapidly changing environment
· To prevent or prevent traffic accidents
ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant System) →
AV (Autonomous Vehicle)
Requirements for Connected Cars Direction of Development
Autonomous Vehicle
Mobility as a Service
Autono-MaaS
86. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) -
Consumers with Moving
Needs
transportation suppliers
86
5G will help to boost on autonomous vehicles and MaaS services by
improving data, IoT and artificial intelligence sectors.
Autonomous Vehicle
[참조]
☞ Except for the need for human ownership, the
reason for buying and owning a car disappears,
considering the need for mobility.
[ 2.8 cm at 1m/s = 100km/h ]
Mobility as a Service
※ Source : New paradigm of car, dig up MaaS(Publy, 2019)(LINK)
Matchi
ng
Increased demand-supplier
matching with 5G, IoT and AI
Enhance awareness, judgment, and
control with 5G, IoT, and AI
5G
AI
IoT
87. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 87
3.1. Autonomous Vehicle
The autonomous driving level can be divided from level 0 and level 5, and
generally speaking, it can be called autonomous vehicle in the true sense
from level 4 autonomous vehicle.
Autonomous driving levels for connected cars
① 개요
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
Driverless
Minds off
Eyes off
Hands off
Minds on
Eyes off
Hands off
Minds on
Eyes on
Hands off
Minds on
Eyes on
Hands on
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
Steps that the driver
does not need to be
involved in driving
supportable
with sensor
V2X
Required
88. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 88
For autonomous driving, the vehicle must go through self-sensing,
judgment and control process.
Requirement for AV
② Requirement and Logic
Sensi
ng
Judgi
ng
Contr
olling
※ Source : Self-driving car system composition and element technology and development stage (Future
Infrastructure Research Institute, 2017)(LINK)
※ Source : Coming Soon, 자율 주행차(유진투자증권 , 2019)(LINK)
Moving object recognition
(Vehicles, pedestrians, traffic lights,
etc.)
Fixed feature recognition
(Lanes, lanes, tunnels, etc.)
Route navigation
Vehicle control
(Steering, Acceleration /
Deceleration, etc.)
Drive trajectory generation
(Trajectory, speed, etc.)
Situation judgment and
strategy establishment
(Change lanes, cut in, etc.)
Precise guidance
and positioning
ADAS Sensor
or
V2X
Communication
Learning judgment
and control system
ADAS, V2X-based
Ambient Awareness
System
Integrated Vehicle
Control Solution
Location tracking Terrain recognition Driving route
Where is my current
location?
What is my current
environment?
What is the next
expected behavior
of other actors?
How should I drive?
- Accurately identify
the location on the
road by using the
three-dimensional
precision map
prepared in advance
reflecting the road
situation and
real-time sensors
and communication
data.
- In-vehicle sensors,
communication
modules, and
software scan
surrounding objects
to keep you
informed of traffic
conditions
- Identify moving
objects and predict
future movements
based on current
speed and trajectory
- Consider the impact
of changing road
conditions (such as
construction) on the
behavior of others
and things around
you
- Choose the exact
trajectory, speed,
lane and steering
controls you need to
safely follow the
predicted path
- Safe driving due to
constant
environmental
monitoring and
predicting future
behavior
Judgement logic for AV
89. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 89
Sensor-based ADAS can meet the requirements for simple or fixed object
recognition, but V2X-centric data collection is a prerequisite for predictive
driving, traffic distribution in smart cities, and optimal route navigation.
ADAS & V2X
③ ADAS vs. V2X
V2X
※ Source : Leading the world to 5G:Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything(C-V2X) technologies(Qualcomm, 2016)(LINK)
☞ In order to distribute traffic in smart cities and
autonomous parking, it is necessary to have a
V2X infrastructure that can collect, store and
analyze traffic information.
☞ Some sensor-oriented ADAS can be used for fixed object recognition, moving
object recognition, etc., but V2X must be accompanied for safer and more efficient
driving.
90. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 91
In order to build an environment in which an autonomous vehicle runs, a
communication standard for a vehicle and other objects is defined and
autonomous driving is possible based on this.
Vehicle to Everything
[Reference] V2X
- V2V(Vehicle to Vehicle)
- V2N(Vehicle to Network)
- V2I(Vehicle to Infrastructure)
- V2P(Vehicle to Pedestrian)
- V2D(Vehicle to Device)
- V2G(Vehicle to Grid)
91. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 92
3.2. MaaS
By focusing only on the intrinsic value of the vehicle, movement, we can
maximize the social and economic value of MaaS.
Autonomous Vehicles, Robo-Taxi and Urban Vehicle Revolution
(BCG / WEF)
① Benefits of MaaS
scenario
Form of
ownership
Urban policy summary
Scenario ①
Luxury car
Privately
owned
- None
- Autonomous driving is a complementary feature
- Consumers own and use autonomous vehicles in the same way as existing vehicles
- 1/4 of new car sales in urban areas are autonomous vehicles
- 1/10 autonomous vehicles share (replaces second car demand)
Scenario②
Autonomous vehicles
dominate the street
Privately
owned
- Promote autonomous vehicles - Autonomous vehicles replace almost all existing vehicles
Scenario③
Robo taxi succession
Mobility
Company
- Policy to suppress individual
car ownership is enacted
- Promote autonomous vehicles
- Robo-taxi first choice as transportation
- Almost no private car ownership in urban areas
- Autonomous vehicles will partially replace buses
Scenario③
Mobile sharing
revolution
Mobility
Company
- Policy to suppress individual
car ownership is enacted
- Promote mobile sharing,
autonomous vehicles
- Robot taxi for mobile sharing is the first choice
- On average, taxis will carry two passengers (1.2 on average)
- Private car ownership will be virtually eliminated in urban areas
- Autonomous vehicles will almost replace the bus.
※ Source: Sharing economy (Part II.Traditional industry with different frame) (IBK Investment & Securities, 2019) (LINK)
Expected Benefits
Number
of
vehicles
accident
Parking
space
Emission
s
Scenario ①
Scenario③
Scenario②
Scenario ④
92. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 93
3.3. 5G Impacts of Industry Change
While autonomous cars and MaaS growth can have a positive impact on
people's quality of life, the entire OEM industry has a negative impact on
reduced demand and reduced bargaining power.
① Impact on the automotive OEM industry
- Maximize utilization of vehicles
· Eliminate fuel waste with optimal copper wire
· Maximize your driving rate without parked cars
- Reduce unnecessary environmental pollution
· Eliminate unnecessary fuel waste
· Eliminates wasted parts for redundant car manufacturing5G
☞ The sharing of automobiles can be extended to the sharing of everyday life, which can affect various industries.
- Shrinking the Global Automotive OEM Market
· Reduced sales due to higher operating rate per unit
· Improved purchasing negotiation power of MaaS companies
5G & Vehicle Automotive OEM Industry Impact
AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLE
Mobility as
a Service
93. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 94
3.4. Global Autonomous Vehicle Markets
The autonomous vehicle market is expected to grow to the size of 33
million cars in 2040
Global Autonomous Vehicle Market
Forecasts
① Market Overview
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
33m
0.05M
- Grow from 5.1 million units in 2011 to 3.3 million units in 40 years
- The first production of L4 autonomous vehicles will be in 2019.
· All will be conducted by corporations and mass sales.
· GM's Bolt will be sold to GM's shared car service provider Maven,
shared car operator Lyft and GM's autonomous vehicle unit Cruise
· Waymo will purchase Chrysler's Pacifica and Jaguar iPace as
autonomous vehicles
· Uber continues to order Volvo's XC900 2.4 million units
- The car sharing service will be in the initial market, mainly in China
and the US.
- But the need for car ownership in Europe and the US still remains
Market interpretation
※ The total car market in 2007 is estimated at 86 million units.
94. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 95
GM acquires Cruise, which enables inherent development and
manufacturing of autonomous vehicle integration. In addition, Maven is
providing its own MaaS.
GM & CRUISE
② General Motors
Partnership with
GM's Cruise
Acquisition
Meaning and
Advantages of GM
GM's service
portfolio
- Company specializing in autonomous vehicles
- Acquired by GM in 2016.
- Funding and partnership through investment in GM (1.1b $),
Softbank (2.25b $), Honda (2.75b $ / 12 years) in 18 years
- The acquisition of Cruise Automation enables the integration of
autonomous vehicle development into existing internal product
development and manufacturing processes.
- Product expansion is possible when Cruise AV development is
linked to its own mass production system.
- In-house service portfolios including OnStar (Telematics
including emergency response), Marketplace (e-commerce
including food orders), and Maven (vehicle sharing service)
- Partnered with DoorDash (late time food delivery service)
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
GM's Autono-MaaS
95. - researched, written, and Created by DONG HYUNG SHIN(donghyung.shin@gmail.com) - 96
Ford emphasizes autonomous cars in the role of smart cities. Ford
founded Ford Mobility and used an AI external collaboration strategy.
Ford in Smartcity
② Ford
Ford's self-driving
movement
Partnership
Ford Advantages
and Disadvantages
- Established Ford Mobility in 2016
· Provide Smart City Transportation Mobility Cloud Platform
- Acquired and invested ARGO AI, a self-driving AI company in
2017 ($ 1b / 5 years)
· '19 year VW Group invested 2.6b $ additional
- Uber and Lyft Partner to Share Data Through ‘Sharedstreets’
Platform
· Sharedstreets is a platform for gathering data and sharing
traffic conditions for urban congestion management, mitigation
and green gas reduction
- Partnership with Lyft to launch autonomous vehicles in 2021
- Long-term R & D on autonomous vehicles and know-how about
commercial vehicle business are strong in cooperation with
MaaS companies such as taxis
- As a part of the smart city, autonomous vehicles can be affected
by the external environment more than they can.
Ford focuses on the role of cars in the
“smart city” and accesses self-driving cars
and mobility services as part of the city's
overall transportation solution.
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
Ford's Autono-MaaS Status
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TESLA is constantly improving its current autopilot and preparing MaaS
services for TESLA owners
TESLA's Autono-MaaS Status
③ TESLA
Tesla's self-driving
movement
Partnership
Tesla advantages
and disadvantages
- Continuous improvement of the Autopilot program, Level 2
- Car sharing program for Tesla car owners
- In October 19th, through a Deep Scale acquisition, '18, the
autonomous car mentioned by Ellen Musk, would like to realize
that cameras, radars, and ultrasounds are sufficient instead of
expensive LiDARs.
· Deepscale has very accurate computer vision technology while
using low power processors
· Deepscale's processors work with sensors, mapping, and
planning control systems to help cars understand what's going
on around them.
- Mobileye collaborates with Nvidia to develop camera sensors
and AI chipset internally
- Strong image as Tesla's EV market leader and AV market
leader by Autopilot
- However, its capacity for mass production compared to its
competitors seems to be insufficient.
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
TESLA AV Concept
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WAYMO will expand its alliance with automotive OEMs and focus on
providing autonomous vehicle solutions.
WAYMO applied vehicle
④ WAYMO
Waymo's
movement on
autonomous
driving
Partnership
Waymo pros and
cons
- Company spun off as a subsidiary of Google self-driving car
- Records tested over 10 million miles in real and simulation
- Commercialize ride-hailing service
· Limited 18 years paid service provided by Phoenix.
- Financial support from the parent company Google, most tests
completed on target date, and not building their own cars, a
good relationship with the OEM.
- Disadvantages of mass production capacity and
OEM-dependent business model
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid,
Jaguar's iPace EV
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
WAYMO's Autono-MaaS Status
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TOYOTA will support not only full autonomous driving but also driver
assistance mode for fun driving.
TOYOTA's Autono-MaaS Status
⑤ TOYOTA
Toyota's move on
autonomous
driving
Partnership
- Simultaneous pursuit of 'Guardian mode' and 'Chauffeur mode'
· Guardian mode aimed at driver assistance oriented fun driving
· Driver mode aims to provide full autonomous driving for those
who do not want to or cannot drive.
· While companies are pursuing full autonomous driving, Toyota
believes that it is difficult to fully autonomous driving in a short
period of time.
- At first, the focus is on the Guardian mode.
- Founded Joint Venture called Softbank and Monet.
- Monet provides ① On-Demand Mobility Service, ② Data
Analysis Service, ③ Autono-MaaS (Autonomous Vehicle and
Mobility as a Service)
- Invested in Monet rivals Honda and Toyota's truck division
Hino
- -Investment in Uber and MoU
- -Investment in Grab
※ Source : Self-Driving Vehicles and Mobility:Evolving Strategies(IHS Markit, 2019)(LINK)
TOYOTA's philosophy
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TOYOTA is preparing autonomous driving and MaaS services inside, as
well as MONET, a joint venture with SoftBank.
Toyota Mobility Service Platform
[Reference] TOYOTA
※ Source : Toyota Annual Report 2018(Toyota, 2019)(LINK) ※ Source : Toyota and SoftBank Joint Venture, MONET, starts Operation(Astroman magazine, 2019)(LINK)
MONET
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Toyota will build a 700,000 square meter future city near Mt. Fuji by 2021.
2,000 people, including Toyota researchers and their families, retirees,
scientists, and industry partners, will live and develop the city with
experiencing autonomous vehicles, robots, PAVs, and smart homes.
Woven City of Toyota
[Reference] Toyota in CES 2020
※ Source : CES 2020: Toyota and BIG To Build A Prototype Future City In Japan(Forbes Link)
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HYUNDAI MOTORS will invest 14.7 trillion won in MaaS, electric cars
and autonomous vehicles over Y + 5 years.
Investment Plan (~Y+5)
⑥ HYUNDAI MOTORS
※ Source : Hyundai Motor Company CEO Investor Day(HMC, 2019)(LINK)
Autono-MaaS Strategy
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Hyundai Motor established joint venture to develop and sell autonomous
LV4 ~ 5 solutions with APTIV and JV, global leading autonomous
solutions company
Investment background
⑥ HYUNDAI MOTORS
OEM
Tier1
Comp.
[Past] [Present] [Future : The era of AV]
S/W
Solution
Tier1
Comp.
Tier1
Comp.
OEMOEM
S/W
S/W
※ Source : Overseas joint venture establishment and equity investment briefing session (Hyundai Motor Group, 2019)(LINK)
Subsidiar
y
company
▪ Two subsidiaries related to
autonomous driving
IP
Autonomous driving related
patent, DB, S/W, all know-how
manpowe
r
▪ Core Technology Research
Staff
facility
▪ Autonomous Research /
Testing Bases: Las Vegas,
Pittsburgh, Boston,
Singapore, Santa Monica
Total
investment
▪ $2.0bn
IP
▪ Autonomous Driving IP
Licensing
Vehicle
modific
ations
▪ Autonomous Vehicle
Modification / Supply
Dispatc
h of
manpo
wer
▪ Dispatch of research personnel
J
V
Share
50%
Share
50%
JV Establishment between Hyundai and APTIV
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There are three business models of JV between HYUNDAI and APTIV.
Business model
[Reference]
Development and sales of autonomous
driving solution
Remote support services Data sales revenue
Sensor + System Vehicle Mounting
Performance update and Driving
Conditions Update
Driving performance monitoring / analysis
and Vehicle remote control and
management
Data Acquisition / Purification → Sales
(Driving patterns, vehicle / road conditions,
etc.)
Sales to Mobility Operators and
Automotive OEMs
Sales to Mobility Operators and
Automotive OEMs
Insurance, retail, transportation services,
etc.
※ Source: Establishment of overseas joint venture and equity investment briefing session (Hyundai Motor Group,
2019) (LINK)
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APTIV, a spin-off from Delphi, an automotive parts specialist, understands
existing OEM attributes and has proven and offered autonomous driving
solutions.
APTIV Status
⑦ APTIV
In the past, Delphi split into powertrain division Delphi
Technologies and battlefield APTIV.
APTIV Status
Aptiva
Electric / Electronics
Division
Electronic / Safety Division
Autonomous driving
Development of autonomous
driving system
APTIV's
autonomous
driving movement
- Autonomous driving test in Las Vegas
with Lyft
- Developing an autonomous driving
program internally
- Participated in the BMW-Intel-Mobileye
Consortium
APTIV features
- Understanding Delphi's OEM attributes
allows for rapid commercialization while
at the same time proving technology.
- Leverage existing parts production
capacity
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HYUNDAI announced the vision to become a smart mobility solution
company at CES 2020.
Vision
[Reference] Hyundai Motors in CES 2020
Transforming to Smart Mobility Solutions
Emphasizes the role of Hyundai Motor Group in Smart Mobility,
which includes the Sky Urban Air Mobility (UAM), the Land PBV
(Purpose Built Vehicle) and the Connection Hub (Mobility
Transit Hub)
Uber Unveils Personal Air Vehicle Concept and Announces
Strategic Cooperation with Uber
Cooperation
※ Source: Hyundai Unveils Future Mobility Vision for Vertical Takeoff and Landing at CES LINK)
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4. XR
Recently, extended reality (XR) concepts have emerged, including VR
(virtual reality), AR (augmented reality) and MR (mixed reality). Over the
next five years, the market size is expected to grow at an annual average
of 70.5%.
XR Market Size (M $)
① Market Overview
※ Source :Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2019-2023, ICT 통계분석, 2018 XR Global Revenue Forecast, Spring Edition(2018, ARTILLRY)(LINK)
XR(eXtended Reality)
CAGR 70.5%
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The gaming industry may be the area of greatest interest in XR
applications these days, but it is expected to be applied to various
industries, especially medical welfare.
XR area of interest to 2020
② Interests of XR
※ Source : 2019 Augmented and Virtual reality survey report(perkinscoie.2019)(LINK) ※ Source : WAKING UP TO A NEW REALITY(Accenture, 2109)(LINK)
Potentially Interested XR Areas
(excluding games)
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5.1. XR Application Areas and Examples
As XR is applied to manufacturing and construction sites, it contributes to
productivity improvement such as defect reduction and quality
improvement.
XR Case
① manufacturing and construction site
※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK)
Contents Application case Market size (US B $)
Design & Prototype
Work instruction /
production support
- Visualize the structure from various
angles and overlay elements designed
on top of existing models for improved
products and testing.
- Workers work and repair while looking
at mechanical drawings and machines
in three dimensions.
- Volkswagen, a car company, uses VR
apps to help global workers design
products simultaneously
- Some Airbus workers wear smart
glasses when installing precise interiors
on aircraft.
CAGR 133%
Maintenance
- Show historical and real-time data
comparisons for improved maintenance
and operations.
- Allow remote experts to guide you for
quality improvement.
- TAE Aerospace uses wearable devices
to direct remote product specialists to
field technicians for repair and
maintenance.
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With XR, you can become a virtual factory worker wherever you are, and
increase productivity by applying in-plant XR.
Virtual plant or XR in factory
[Example] Production Site
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In the public sector, XR will be applied in the areas of safety and
healthcare, which will enable efficient support.
XR Case
② public
※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK)
Contents Application case
Efficient Safety
Management
Dealing with Crisis
Patient care
- Use XR with real-time public data to
instantly detect illegal goods and illegal
activities
- Rapidly transport patients to speed
patient search and rescue
- XR은 스트레스 외상 장애 환자가
진행중인 가상 요법을 빠르고 안전하게
극복 할 수 있도록 도와줍니다.
- The US Customs Service uses
Microsoft's HoloLens XR device to
detect intellectual property infringement.
- HiRO drone and telemedical KIT uses
MS HoloLens to allow doctors to treat
multiple patients remotely.
- XRHealth offers consistent non-surgical
therapies by applying XR to chronic
diseases.
CAGR 133%
Market size (US B $)
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XR is applied to broadcasting and remote maintenance and repair to
provide a more realistic communication environment for users.
XR CASE
③ Communication, Media, Entertainment
※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK)
Contents Application case
broadcasing
Realistic
Storytelling
Remote Maintenance
and Repair
- Through XR, viewers can watch
broadcasts with the same immersive
feeling of being at a sports game or
show scene.
- XR allows viewers to remotely
participate in, or experience immersive
experiences in places or environments
where actual participation is difficult.
- Workers can receive work orders,
analytical data remotely, or get help
from a real-time expert.
- Turner Sports allows viewer to watch
NBA games in real time in virtual reality.
- The 360-degree VR service, developed
by the UN, enables refugee camps to
be experienced with the eyes of
children living in refugee camps.
- KPN's field technicians use Skylight
smart glasses to query, conduct pilot
projects with expert assistance and
equipment monitoring.
CAGR 114%
Market size (US B $)
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High-definition-low-latency connectivity and XR technology will provide an
environment where professional repair technicians can check and repair
at anytime, anywhere. This is expected to create a new chapter in
hardware repair.
H / W check like repairman repairs in front of A/S center
[Example] Repair Center
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XR provides the means for retailers to have a hands-on experience even
if they do not actually buy or experience.
XR CASE
④ Retail Service
※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK)
Contents Application case
Virtual fitting room
Virtual product
demonstration
Visual
Merchandising
- Clothing stores can create virtual fitting
rooms so that customers can try out a
variety of products without actually
wearing them.
- Retailers use XR to help customers
know what it looks like if they use the
product without actually using it.
- The XR headset's eye-tracking
technology aids customer data
collection and market research.
- Topshop installed a virtual fitting room
in their Moscow store using Kinect
motion sensing technology.
- Home Depot's Project Color app lets
users virtually see how the room feels
when they paint.
- Accenture는 고객 행동에 대한 데이터를
수집하여 제품 및 유통 전략을위한
솔루션을 제공합니다.
CAGR 135%
Market size (US B $)
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XR provides real time information to help improve the efficiency of
transportation, loading and logistics management.
XR CASE
⑤ transport, logistics, wholesale
※ Source : Waking up to a new realty(Accenture, 2019)(LINK)
Contents Application case
Shipping to last mile
Increased
productivity
Cargo Layout
Management
- Workers can use XR to provide
information about the goods and their
delivery routes so they can be loaded
for the most productive delivery at the
destination.
- Smart glasses can help the most
optimal loading by visualizing real-time
data on the location, quantity and route
of goods.
- XR provides information on loading
batches considering volume and size in
relation to cargo loading.
- GetVu displays ordering information on
the AR headset for operators to
optimally load their cargo.
- GE Healthcare offers real-time
information to help workers select items
from the warehouse using XR glasses
and load them into better alternative
spaces.
- Lufthansa Cargo provides employees
with an XR-based solution that allows
them to simulate and predict the
amount of pallets needed before
loading the plane.
CAGR 156%
Market size (US B $)