Sydney Limited WIP Society presentation on "Systems Traps and Opportunities". Part of series introducing Systems Thinking based on Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows

1. System Traps and Opportunities
Sydney Limited WIP Society
Jason Yip
j.c.yip@computer.org
http://jchyip.blogspot.com
@jchyip

3. How do you fix this?
“Australia’s youth unemployment rate
of 27.2 per cent is the highest since
the 1990s, up from a low of 16.6 per
cent just before the global financial
crisis in 2008.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-17/youth-unemployment-a-key-challenge-as-boomers-retire/5896202

4. System structures that produce
common patterns of problematic
behavior are called “archetypes”

5. We tend to blame the problems
caused by archetypes on particular
actors or events instead of
underlying system structure

6. Interventions assuming the problem
is due to individual actors or events
(e.g., blaming, disciplining, specific
policies, etc.) do not fix structural
problems -- hence “System Trap”

7. Policy resistance

8. The advantage of a balancing
feedback loop structure is that not
much changes, despite external
forces on the system

9. The disadvantage of a balancing
feedback loop structure is that not
much changes, despite external
forces on the system

10. War on Drugs
Increased risk
of supplying
Increased price
of drugs
More drugs
supplied
Increased
profitability of
drugs

11. Policy resistance happens because
actors in the system have their own
goals.
If one actor pushes the system in one
direction, the others will pull it back.

12. Solutions to Policy Resistance
1. Overpower it
2. Let go (aka de-escalate)
3. Harmonise goals

13. Tragedy of the Commons

14. “...individuals acting independently and
rationally according to one’s self-interest,
behave contrary to the whole group’s long-term
best interests by depleting some
common resource.”
http://en.wikipedia.
org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

15. The Tragedy of the Commons
“As a rational being, each herdsman seeks to maximize his gain. Explicitly or
implicitly, more or less consciously, he asks, “What is the utility to me of
adding on more animal to my herd?” This utility has one negative and one
positive component.
1) The positive component is a function of the increment of one animal.
Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the sale of the
additional animal, the positive utility is nearly +1.
2) The negative component is a function of the additional overgrazing
created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects of overgrazing
are shared by all the herdsman, the negative utility for any particular
decision-making herdsman is only a fraction of -1.”
http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html

16. +1 +1
- 0.0...1 - 0.0...1

17. Examples
● Overfishing
● Overpopulation
● Climate change

18. “The tragedy of the commons arises from
missing (or too long delayed) feedback
from the resource to the growth of the users
of that resource.”
Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A
Primer (p. 117). Kindle Edition.

19. Solutions to Tragedy of the Commons
1. Educate and exhort
2. Privatise the commons
3. Regulate the commons

20. 1. Define clear group boundaries
2. Match rules governing use of common goods to
local needs and conditions
3. Ensure that those affected by the rules can
participate in modifying the rules
4. Make sure the rule-making rights of community
members are respected by outside authorities
5. Develop a system, carried out by community
members, for monitoring members’ behaviour
6. Use graduated sanctions for rule violators
7. Provide accessible, low-cost means for dispute
resolution
8. Build responsibility for governing the common
resource in nested tiers from the lowest level
up to the entire interconnected system
http://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons

21. Drift to low performance

22. We tend to believe
bad news more
than good news
We believe our current
performance is worse
than it actually is
We adjust our performance
goal based on our perceived
current state
Our actual performance
gets worse
We adjust our corrective
action based on our
performance goal

23. Solutions to Drift to Low Performance
1. Keep standards absolute, regardless of
performance
2. Set goals based on the best
performances of the past, instead of
the worst (aka positive deviance)

24. Escalation

25. Examples
● Arms race
● Price war

26. http://www.leader-values.com/article.php?aid=247

27. Solutions to Escalation
1. Unilateral disarmament
2. Negotiate disarmament
3. Don’t get caught up in this in the first
place

28. Success to the Successful

29. “If the winners of a competition are
systematically rewarded with the means
to win again, a reinforcing feedback loop
is created by which, if it is allowed to proceed
uninhibited, the winners eventually take
all, while the losers are eliminated.
Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A
Primer (p. 130). Kindle Edition.”

30. Competitive Exclusion Principle
“...two species competing for the same
resource cannot coexist at constant
population values, if other ecological factors
remain constant.”
http://en.wikipedia.
org/wiki/Competitive_exclusion_principle

31. “The rich get richer...”

32. Solutions to Success to the Successful
1. Diversification to other sectors
2. Policies to level the playing field
3. Policies to ensure rewards do not bias the
next round of competition

33. Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor

34. An intervention is a system trap if it
undermines the original capacity of
the system to maintain itself and
therefore increases dependence on
the intervenor.

35. This is what is meant by Shifting
the Burden to the Intervenor
“Give a man a fish and you feed him
for a day; teach a man to fish and you
feed him for a lifetime”

36. Solutions to Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor
1. Withdrawal (painful)
2. Intervene in such a way as to strengthen
the ability of the system to shoulder its
own burdens
a. Why are the natural correction mechanisms
failing?
b. How can obstacles to their success be removed?
c. How can mechanisms for their success be made
more effective?

37. Rule Beating (aka cheating)

38. “Wherever there are rules, there is
likely to be rule beating.”
Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in
Systems: A Primer (p. 136). Kindle
Edition.

40. Solutions to Rule Beating
1. Stamp out self-organisation… and hope
that it doesn’t create even more cheating
2. Improve rules to support self-organisation

41. Seeking the Wrong Goal

42. “If the goal is defined badly, if it doesn't
measure what it's supposed to measure, if it
doesn't reflect the real welfare of the system,
then the system can't possibly produce a
desirable result.”
Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A
Primer (p. 138). Kindle Edition.

43. Examples
● National security: amount of money spent
on the military
● Good education: amount of money spent
on students, performance on standardised
tests
● Family planning: number of IUDs
implanted
● National success: GDP

44. Solutions to Seeking the Wrong Goal
● Change your indicators and goals
● Don’t confuse effort with result

45. Thoughts? Questions?

46. Pictures
● https://flic.kr/p/7xz1XT
● https://flic.kr/p/6QWKE2
● https://flic.kr/p/ci4muE