OECD International Futures Programme Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy
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Riel Miller educacao a distancia sociedade da informação Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions As transformações oportunizadas pelo século XXI João Jose Saraiva da Fonseca http://joaojosefonseca1.blogspot.com/
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OECD International Futures Programme Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy
- 1. OECD International Futures Programme Connecting Research and Policy in the Digital Economy: Possibility Space Scenarios & 21st Century Transitions Post-Conference Workshop Washington DC, January 29, 2003 Riel Miller
- 2. “ All the bad predictions have the same buried assumption – the future will be just like the present but better. But the future is not like the past.” William Wulf, Jan. 28, 2003
- 7. Technology possibility space Ease of use Simple Difficult Limited & homogeneous Unlimited & heterogeneous Range of uses
- 9. Fusing of supply & demand Unpredictable tasks - creativity Imposed Authority Freedom to initiate Predictable tasks - repetition A learning economy & society Mass-era worker and consumer Empowered team-worker, informed shopper Artist Future consumer/ producer - cyber creator
- 11. Hetero-geneous/small Homo-geneous /large Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how Less choice More choice Scale of social affiliation /identity Identity & choice Mass-era Learning society Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective
- 13. Capacity to make & implement decisions
- 24. Thank you www.oecd.org/futures [email_address] Money Technology Economy Society Governance
Editor's Notes
- Common structure for the conferences: Analysis of past & present Forces driving change What is within our grasp Combine plausible with desirable - policy
- Book is out - consensus was: leaps in info and bio essentially much better, more efficient production and use of information in all domains - better access to the rapidly growing base of human knowledge One of the important, perhaps necessary - although certainly not sufficient conditions for a leap is the emergence of a series of technologies that could become pervasive - meaning part of many different activities and which open up for wide diffusion new uses and activities that were either too expensive or not feasible in the past. Provide examples... Technology - tools are enablers - open up possibilities without determining which ones will be taken. There are many choices to be made - which direction research takes, what tools are used for, extent of diffusion - all the outcome of a complex mix of political, social, market and cultural forces.
- Book is out - main findings were: Important to distinguish long-run dynamism and long boom - both seem plausible Transformation is usually associated with a wave - strong growth that is above the long-run average Main attributes of each: LR Dyn Systemic chemistry & catalysts: Co-evolution of democracy & market forces Pluralism, transparency, openness Values that balance liberty & responsibility Long-boom Pushing fast productivity growth: Learning intensive economy & society Much fuller global integration Pursuit of environmental sustainability
- Social foundations in transition Industrialisation Market based society Creative society Global exposure
- What is governance? Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity Where is governance going? Away from top-down hierarchy & pre-determined allocation of authority Towards distributed responsibility & flexible assignment of roles Need for capacity enabling policies Two features of governance may be turned upside down: - hierarchy - initative and knowledge used by everyone, autonomy, responsibility - fixed allocation of authority - move to task based, flexible subsidarity Two conclusions from conference series - improved governance is key to unlocking tech, econ and social dynamism - policies that advance tech, econ and social dynamism can play major role in imporving governance Symbiosis between conclusions - because desireable change will be both a consquence and cause of the diffusion of power and responsibility.
- Common structure for the conferences: Analysis of past & present Forces driving change What is within our grasp Combine plausible with desirable - policy
- - when - it depends on the period - sometimes it is consolidation and preservation that is essential - at other times it is change. - change is always incremental, but over a particular period it can accumulate to become radical shift - slow and fast are relative terms and particularly relative to capacity - we are the ones driving the world around us and if we are diriving fast it is mostly because we have the capacity and desire to do so - we are not victimsand if the speed of change is really way beyond capacity the brakes come on through failures and slowdowns that are imposed by incapacity - Model T vs jet… - change is both voluntary and involuntary - people desire better and people are forced to make choices to get it - eg. Immigration.