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Dec, 2011

China Mobile Phone Market
Monthly Retail Audit Dashboard Report




博思咨询公司Beijing       Hong Kong


January,2012

HU Yang
joe@thinkbankchina.com
a thinkbank report


Special edition for global investment banks, PEs, VCs, hedge funds, securities etc. to watch the
         trends that are shaping and will transform the future of Chinese mobile world.
                                   Presented by retail.panel
Retail Data Collected from Nationwide Audit and Channel Check




                                                            3
…Insights Derived from Continuous Consumer Researches




                                                        4
Table of Contents




    Size       Share   Product   Price   Subscriber




                                                  5
Key Figures in Dec-11
Market Size | 3G | Subscribers | Av. Selling Price

                                      3G Sales Units in Dec-11

                                                     +11.0%M/M
 2011 YTD M-size                        11.6
                                        Million
              +17.3% Y/Y
                                                         Mobile phone penetration
    235                                                                                  Dec-11 ASP
    Million           Dec-11 M-size
                                  +6.9%M/M
                                                        74                               185
                                                         pct                              USD
                        20.5      +27.5% Y/Y
                        Million
                                                                    3G subscriber new addition in Dec-11

                                                                               CM=3.2M
                                                                     9.6       CU=3.5M
                                                                     Million   CT=3.1M



                                                                                                      6
Market Size Summary / 2011
235million units sold to end users, representing +17.3% Y/Y growth in 2011.

         2011 Year to Date Market Size // Dec, 2011                                                   +17.3% robust growth through 2011


      235
                                                                                                       • China mobile phone retail market size witnessed rapid

                                                             +17.3%                                      growth in 2011, reached 235 million in 2011, up 17.3%
                                                                                                         y/y. It’s worthy notice that market size in 2nd half of
       Million units                                         Year-on-year                                2011 grew remarkably +27%, mainly driven by
                                                                                                         smartphones, which also indicates dramatic growth
                                                                                                         rate in 2012.
        YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology
                                                                                                       • 3G market size increased rapidly at the shrink of 2G
  2G Device Market (Million)                    3G Device Market (Million)                               market, to 128 million or 54% of total market in the
                                                                                                         entire 2011.
   GSM                       63.3(27%)           TD-SCDMA                  27.6(12%)
   GPRS/EDGE                 45.7(19%)           WCDMA                     49.5(21%)                   • WCDMA phones outperform that of TD-SCDMA &
                                                                                                         EVDO in 2011, registered 49.5 million units due to
   CDMA1X                     19.0(8%)           EVDO                      30.0(13%)
                                                                                                         more diversified brands and products. While TD-
                                                                                                         SCDMA and EVDO continued to suffer from more or
       YTD Market Size Breakdown by Market Type                                                          less the same problem of weak products and limited
            Market Type                         Sales (M)             Percentage %                       phone manufacturers.
       Phones with CTA(1)                           235                     86.3%                      • White-box market encountered slowing down because
     White-box (without CTA)                        16.3                     6.0%                        of 3G and smart phone growth.

           Grey market(2)                           21.0                     7.7%

  (1)CTA: Certification of Type Approval by Ministry of Industry & Information Technology
  (2)Grey market: mainly smuggling phones from overseas.                                                                                                    7
  ***Market size in this report are referring to CTA market size unless there is specific notation.
Monthly Market Size Development
20.5 million phones sold in Dec-11, including 11.6 million 3G phones, closing the whole year with 235 million units or
+17.3% y/y growth. Market growth accelerated in the 2nd half of 2011, grew by +27% y/y.

      Total Market Size Development (2G + 3G)                         in millions
       25
                    2009      2010      2011
                                                                21.8                        21.9
                                                                          20.1      20.5                     20.5
       20            19.2                        19.2                                                 19.2
                               18.7                      18.6
            17.7                        17.6


       15




       10
            Jan      Feb       Mar      Apr      May     Jun    Jul       Aug       Sep     Oct       Nov    Dec

                          Total Market (million units)                     3G Market (million units)
              Total Size      M/M growth %      Y/Y growth %    3G Size      M/M growth %          Y/Y growth %

                   20.5            +6.9             +27.5        11.6               +11.0             +122%         8
3G Market Size Trend by Technology
WCDMA market size is burgeoning, accounting for nearly half of China’s 3G market as the end of 2011.

 China 3G Market Size Development by Technology // 2009~Now (M units)
  15
                EVDO
                TD-SCDMA
                                                                                                                                                                             11.6
                WCDMA                                                                                                                                                   11.2
                                                                                                                                                                     10.5 10.5
                3G Total
                                                                                                                                                                   9.6
  10
                                                                                                                                                             9.0
                                                                                                                                                   8.4 8.6
                                                                                                                                                                     WCDMA      47%
                                                                                                                                       7.6
                                                                                                                                             7.3
                                                                                                                                 6.6
                                                             y = 0.0088x2 + 0.0256x - 0.2445                               6.1
                                                                       R²= 0.9925                                    5.2
   5                                                                                                       4.5 4.8
                                                                                                                                                                                26%
                                                                                     3.7         3.7 3.6                                                       TD-SCDMA
                                                                                           3.1
                                                                       2.4 2.3 2.7
                                                             1.7 1.9
                                                       1.3
                                                                                                                                                                                27%
                                             0.6 0.9                                                                                                                     EVDO
       0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
   0
       2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


                                                                                                                                                                                9
2G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11
2G market holds 43% unit share in Dec-11 meanwhile captured only 25% value share due to lower ASP of 2G
phones.


           2G Market = 8.9M units                           2G Market = 1.4B US$
              (43% of China Market)                              (25% of China Market)
           (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)                          (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)

                                         NOKIA                                               Nokia
                                         Samsung                                             Samsung
                                                                    18.2%
              21.3%                      Gionee          1.5%                                OPPO
                                27.1%                                                26.5%
                                         OPPO             2.2%                               BBK
    1.7%                                 Tianyu           2.6%                               Gionee
   2.0%                                  BBK              3.3%                               Lenovo
   2.6%
                                         Lenovo           4.3%                               Tianyu
                                                                                     15.7%
    3.7%                                 LG                       7.1%                       Motorola
                                19.3%    Motorola                                            LG
     4.7%                                                             7.3%
                                         ZTE                                 11.3%           DOOV
           4.9%   6.0%
                         6.7%            Others                                              Others




                                                                                                        10
3G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11
With 57% unit share, 3G market occupied 75% of total value share in Dec-11, Nokia still held 19.8% value share and
ranked #2 in 3G market.


           3G Market =11.6M units                                      3G Market =2.4B US$
                  (57% of China Market)                                  (75% of China Market)
             (TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO)                                     (TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO)
                                                                  2.5%
                                                 Samsung                    7.7%                    Samsung
                                                               2.9%
                 17.6%                           Huawei     3.8%                                    Nokia
                                 21.4%
                                                 ZTE                                                Apple
                                                                                         28.3%
  2.3%
                                                 NOKIA                                              Motorola
 2.6%                                                           4.3%
                                                 Lenovo                                             Huawei
      3.3%                                                      4.3%
                                                 Apple                                              ZTE
         5.0%                            13.0%   Coolpad        5.2%                                HTC
                                                 HTC                                                Coolpad
          5.2%                                                    6.3%
                                                 Motorola                                           SonyEricsson
                                                                                       19.8%
                 8.3%            11.0%           SonyEricsson                                       Lenovo
                                                                          14.8%
                         10.4%                   Others                                             Others



                                                                                                             11
3G Market Monthly Brand Market Share Development
Nokia has been losing market share for the whole year in 3G market, however, it seems that Samsung failed to grab
the opportunity. China local manufacturers ZTE & Huawei gained remarkable market share growth in 2011.

    3G Market Top10 Brand Shares Development
   100%=   6.1     6.6    7.6     7.3     8.4    8.6     9.0      9.6    10.5   11.2   10.5   11.6
    100%
                                                                                                       Samsung
     90%   23%     19%    19%     20%     21%    21%     23%       23%                  22%    21%
                                                                          24%    24%                   Huawei
     80%
                   9%     10%                                                                          ZTE
            6%                    10%     11%    12%
     70%
                                                         10%       11%           11%    14%    13%
            5%     6%                                                     14%                          NOKIA
                           8%      8%
                                          9%     9%      10%
     60%                                                           11%           11%           11%     Lenovo
                                                                          11%           11%
     50%   30%     32%    26%                                                                  10%     Apple
                                  27%     25%    20%     20%       18%           15%    12%
                                                                          15%
     40%                                                                                               Coolpad

                                                          6%       6%                   4%     5%      HTC
     30%    5%     4%      3%      4%            5%                       6%     6%
                                          5%                                            6%     5%
            6%     7%      8%                    6%       5%       5%     5%     5%
                                   7%     7%                                                           Motorola
     20%
                                                                                                       SonyEricsson
     10%                                                                                       18%
           14%     11%    12%                    13%     14%       13%    13%    13%    15%
                                  11%     11%                                                          Others
      0%
           Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11   Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11   Jul-11   Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

                                                                                                                12
Brand Market Share Trend
Nokia is declining in the 2nd half of 2011 in total market, while Lenovo, Huawei & ZTE was catching up quickly. In 3G
market, Nokia was going down dramatically and Lenovo in particularly was growing dramatically in Q4.
2G+3G Market Brand Shares Trend                                                             3G Market Brand Shares Trend
30%                                       10%                                               30%                                     10%
              Samsung                                    Huawei                                        Samsung                                      Lenovo
              Nokia                                      ZTE                                                                                        Apple
                                                                                                       Huawei
                                                         Lenovo                                        ZTE                                          Coolpad
25%
                                                         Gionee                             25%        Nokia                                        HTC
                                            8%           Tianyu                                                                       8%            Motorola
                                                         Coolpad
20%

                                                                                            20%


15%                                         6%                                                                                        6%


                                                                                            15%

10%

                                            4%                                                                                        4%
                                                                                            10%
 5%




 0%                                         2%                                              5%                                        2%
  Jul-11   Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11   Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11     Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11   Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11




                                                                                                                                                                      13
WCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
Samsung was dominating with 25.7% m-share & 1.4 million units shipment, followed by Nokia with 20.9% m-share &
nearly 1.1 million units shipment in Dec-11.


                                   Dec-11 M-Share
              # Brand                               Sales K
                                  M-Share change                      Coolpad,
               1   Samsung         25.7%    (1.9)    1397              2.4%
               2   NOKIA           20.9%    (5.1)    1135      SonyEricsson,             Others,
               3   Apple           11.0%    3.0       600          2.6%                  10.5%
               4   Lenovo          8.4%     1.7       457        Motorola,
               5   ZTE             5.9%     (0.0)     323
                                                                                                      Samsung,
                                                                  3.6%                                 25.7%
               6   HTC             5.0%     1.0       269
               7   Huawei          3.9%     1.0       210     Huawei, 3.9%
               8   Motorola        3.6%     (0.3)     197                    HTC, 5.0%
               9   SonyEricsson    2.6%     0.2       143
              10   Coolpad         2.4%     1.0       130                                            NOKIA,
                                                                             ZTE, 5.9%
              11   MI              1.8%     1.8       100                                            20.9%
              12   LG              1.7%     (0.6)     95                         Lenovo,
              13   Tianyu          1.1%     (0.1)     62                          8.4%
                                                                                            Apple,
              14   BlackBerry      1.0%     0.7       55
                                                                                            11.0%
              15   Gionee          0.8%     0.1       45
              16   OPPO            0.8%     (0.1)     45
              17   BBK             0.8%     0.4       43
              18   Hisense         0.5%     0.3       27
              19   CHANGHONG       0.5%     0.3       27
              20   Dopod           0.3%     (0.1)     18


                                                                                                                 14
EVDO: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
Huawei exceeded Samsung in EVDO market and became the number 1 brand with 26.3% unit share, which can be
attributed to a range of best selling CT customized thousand-yuan Android smart phones.


                                  Dec-11 M-Share
             # Brand                               Sales K
                                 M-Share change
              1   Huawei          26.3%    (2.8)    836
              2   Samsung         22.2%    (0.9)    708
              3   ZTE             7.1%     (1.9)    225
              4   Coolpad         6.1%     (1.8)    196
              5   Haier           4.0%     0.5      128                      Others, 21.4%
                                                                BenWee,
              6   SonyEricsson    3.3%     0.3      105          2.1%                             Huawei,
              7   HTC             2.9%     (0.7)    91
                                                                                                   26.3%
              8   LG              2.4%     1.3      77           EMI, 2.1%
              9   EMI             2.1%     0.9      68
             10   BenWee          2.1%     0.9      68         LG, 2.4%
             11   Hisense         1.9%     0.9      61          HTC, 2.9%                            Samsung,
             12   EPHONE          1.8%     0.9      58       SonyEricsson,                            22.2%
             13   Motorola        1.8%     (3.0)    58                       Haier, 4.0%
                                                                 3.3%
             14   SHARP           1.3%     (0.2)    41                                     ZTE,
                                                                      Coolpad,             7.1%
                                                                       6.1%




                                                                                                                15
TD-SCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
China domestic manufactures were jointly ruling the TD market. ZTE was the no.1 manufacturer with 24.1% and
followed by Lenovo with 16.5%, Huawei with 15.4%.
                                   Dec-11 M-Share
              # Brand                               Sales K
                                  M-Share change
               1   ZTE             24.1%    0.8      729
               2   Lenovo          16.5%    1.5      500
               3   Huawei          15.4%    0.5      468       Hisense,
               4   Samsung         12.9%    (0.1)    392        1.6% 1.4%
               5   Coolpad         8.4%     (1.8)    255
                                                                   LG,                  Others,
               6   Tianyu          4.2%     1.1      127        Gionee, 2.2%            10.9%
               7   NOKIA           2.4%     0.1      71         Nokia, 2.4%
               8   Gionee          2.2%     0.1      68                                              ZTE, 24.1%
               9   LG              1.4%     (1.3)    43       Tianyu, 4.2%
              10   Hisense         1.6%     (0.4)    48
              11   DESAY           1.2%     (0.9)    35                      Coolpad,
              12   Bird            1.1%     (0.8)    34                       8.4%                   Lenovo,
                                                                                                      16.5%
              13   Motorola        1.4%     (0.1)    43
              14   ASUS            1.3%     0.4      38                        Samsung,
              15   HTC             0.9%     (0.1)    26                         12.9%
              16   Mastone         0.9%     0.1      27
                                                                                           Huawei,
              17   Haier           0.9%     0.5      29
                                                                                            15.4%
              18   SonyEricsson    0.7%     0.2      21
              19   T-SMART         0.5%     0.1      16
              20   SICT            0.4%     0.1      11
              21   DELL            0.2%     (0.2)     7
              22   BlackBerry      0.3%     0.1      11
              23   Dopod           0.2%     (0.0)     8
              24   Postcom         0.1%     (0.1)     3
              25   TCL             0.2%     0.1       6                                                           16
2G(GSM/CDMA) Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11
Nokia still holds the no.1 position in 2G market with 27.1% unit share, or 2.4 million units shipment in Dec-11.

                              Dec-11 M-   M-Share
               # Brand                              Sales K
                               Share      change
               1 NOKIA         27.1%        0.8      2407
               2 Samsung       19.3%       (0.5)     1719
               3 Gionee         6.7%        0.1      592
               4 OPPO           6.0%        0.2      536
               5 Tianyu         4.9%        0.9      437
               6 BBK            4.7%        0.0      419
               7 Lenovo         3.7%       (0.4)     327
               8 LG             2.6%       (0.0)     229                       Others, 21.3%
               9 Motorola       2.0%        0.2      176       ZTE, 1.7%                          NOKIA,
               10 ZTE           1.7%       (0.2)     149
                                                                Motorola,                         27.1%
               11 Huawei        1.3%       (0.2)     116         2.0%
               12 Konka         1.2%       (0.1)     109
                                                                LG, 2.6%
               13 Bird          1.0%        0.0       93
               14 DOOV          1.0%        0.0       84
                                                              Lenovo, 3.7%
                                                                                                     Samsung,
               15 Philips       0.9%       (0.1)      83                                              19.3%
                                                                BBK, 4.7%
               16 HOT           0.8%        0.7       74
               17 Hisense       0.8%        0.1       67
                                                                Tianyu, 4.9%
               18 Coolpad       0.7%        0.1       65
               19 CHANGHONG     0.7%       (0.2)      64                     OPPO, 6.0%
                                                                                          Gionee, 6.7%
               20 Koobee        0.6%        0.0       55
               21 DESAY         0.5%        0.1       46
               22 AUX           0.5%        0.0       44
               23 Haier         0.5%        0.0       43
               24 Malata        0.5%       (0.1)      42
               25 HOSIN         0.4%       (0.1)      38
                                                                                                                   17
Price Tier Development
80.5% phones were sold under 1,500rmb in 2011.


 Price Tier Development (2G + 3G) in CNY
  >=3000      4.5%   4.8%   4.5%   5.5%   5.9%   6.5%   5.8%   7.4%   7.5%   7.0%   7.2%            6.3%
                                                                                           8.3%

  2500-2999   6.2%   7.0%   7.9%                        8.1%
                                   8.3%   8.6%   8.8%          6.8%   6.7%                          7.4%
                                                                             6.7%   6.8%   7.5%
  2000-2499
              22.2% 21.4% 19.5%
                                19.9% 17.4% 17.6% 21.3% 21.5% 19.9% 19.9%                           20.3%
                                                                          21.3% 21.4%
  1500-1999

  1000-1499   16.7% 17.6% 18.7% 17.6% 19.7% 18.0%
                                                  18.9% 18.4% 17.8% 19.3% 16.7%                     18.1%
                                                                                17.3%

  700-999
              18.8% 17.6% 19.1%                               15.2%
                                20.9% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.4%       16.2% 16.8% 15.4%               17.6%
  400-699

  <400
              26.2% 26.3% 24.1% 22.4% 23.0% 25.4% 23.9% 24.2% 27.3% 23.8% 23.9% 24.1%               24.5%



              Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11   YTD

                                                                                                           18
Weighted Average Retail Price Development
3G phone ASP stabilized in 2011 while WCDMA phones was apparently sold higher than that of EVDO and TD-
SCDMA phones.
   Average Retail Price Weighted by Sales Units (CNY)
   4000

                WCDMA          EVDO         TD-SCDMA          2G Overall        3G Overall



   3000




   2000




   1000




      0
      2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec



                                                                                                                                                  19
Display Size and Camera Resolution Trend
Big screens and high resolution cameras were the main product trend in 2011. Phones with >4.0 screen and >3MP
or 5MP camera will be the mainstream product features in 2012.


    Display Size Trend / 2009~now                        Camera Resolution Trend / 2009~now
        4%                              2%      4%           3%        5%                  2%       4%
                 9%                                                            >8MP
                          >=5inch                            9%                            11%
                                       25%                            13%      8MP
                                                                                                   16%
                                               32%          17%                            17%
       45%                4-4.9inch                                            5MP
                                                                      22%                          20%
                 49%
                                                            15%                3MP
                          3-3.9inch                                                        23%
                                                                      11%      2MP
                                       44%     30%                                                 18%
                          2-2.9inch
                                                            22%                1MP          7%
                                                                      21%                           4%
                                                                               300K
                                                                                           19%     19%
       52%                <2inch
                 42%                                                           None-cmr
                                       29%     34%          33%       28%
                                                                                           20%     18%

       2009      2010                 2011YTD Dec-11         2009     2010                2011YTD Dec-11


                                                                                                         20
Smart Phone Market
Android phones were ramping in 2011, driving smart phone penetration rate of China market grow to >30%, almost
doubled in 2011.

  Smart Phone Market Size Split by OS / Smart Phone Penetration Rate
  10                                                                                                                                                                   40%
             Symbian                                                                                                                    36%36%
                                                                                                                                              35%
             Android                                                                                                                             33%
                                                                                                                                     33%
             Apple
   8
             Microsoft                                                                                                     29%29%
                                                                                                                        28%                                            30%
             Others                                                                                                  26%                             0.7
             SM as % of Total                                                                                                                  0.6
   6                                                                                                                                     0.6               0.4
                                                                                                                                                                 0.6
                                                                                                                                   0.6
                                                                                                               20%
                                                                                                            19%                                                        20%
                                                                                                                         0.4 0.4
                                                                                                                                                     4.6
   4                                                              14% 15%
                                                                     14%          0.3         2.6 3.1 4.2
                                                               13%                    1.7                                                                  4.0 4.2
                                               12%     12% 12%
                                            12% 12% 11% 11% 11%                           2.1
                               11% 11%
       11%                  11%
                                  10% 10%10%                              0.2 0.2 1.4
          9%
               8% 8%   9%10%                       10%
                                                                                                               0.8 0.9                                                 10%
                                                                                                         0.3
   2                                                                                         0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
                                                                                             0.2
                                                                                                 0.4 0.3
                                                                                   0.0
                                                                       0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1
                                                           0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
                                                       0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0                 0.1                         2.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.4
                                               0.0 0.0 0.0                                 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7
                                                                                                           2.2 2.1                     2.0 2.1
                                                                                                                                               1.6 1.5
       1.2 1.0 1.0                 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
                   0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1
   0                                                                                                                                                                   0%
       2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec




                                                                                                                                                                  21
3G Market / Dec-11
11.6 million 3G devices sold out while 3G subscribers added 9.8 million in Dec-11, which means 16% 3G phone
users still keep with 2G services.

    3G Subscriber Share by Operator (in million)
    China Total Accumulated 3G subscribers as the end of Dec-11 is 128 million

                                              Operator                       Dec-11 New Addition (M)
                                              Network Technology           Subscriber           Device

                                                CM TD-SCDMA                3.2 (33%)         3.0 (26%)
                                              Operating by CU

        40, 31%          51.2, 40%              CT EVDO                    3.1 (32%)         3.2 (28%)
                                              Operating by CT

                                                CU WCDMA                   3.5 (35%)         5.4 (46%)
                                              Operating by CMCC

            36.4, 29%                         China Total                      9.8              11.6




                                                                                                         22
Subscriber by Operator / Dec-11
As the end of Dec-11, China registered 987 million mobile phone subscribes with around 128 million new additions in
2011. Number of total 3G subscribers reached 128 million, i.e. 13% of total.


                                                    987 million
                                                    mobile phone subscribers as the
                                                    end of 2011 in China, representing
                                                    the nationwide mobile phone
                                                    penetration rate of 74%.
   Total: 199.6 million (20.5%)                                                                                            Total: 126 million (12.9%)

                                                    128 million
     • 2G: 159.6 [80%]                                                                                                       • 2G: 89.6 [71%]
     • 3G: 40.0 [20%]                                                                                                        • 3G: 36.4 [29%]
   Accumulated 3G subs.: 32.2M                      of 3G subscribers, i.e. 13% of China                                   Accumulated 3G subs.: 51M
                                                    total mobile subscribers.




                                                             Total: 649.6 million (66.6%)
                                                               • 2G: 598 [92%]
                                                               • 3G: 51.2 [8%]
                                                             Accumulated 3G subs.: 65.6M

   China total subscriber and 3G new addition data are quoted from MIIT; By operator data are coming from operators’ public release.            23
   Please note that There is slight discrepancies with MIIT & operator data.
THINKBANK MARKET RESEARCH    MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
         博思咨询  thinkbank    +86 10 5908 1096/97/99
    北京市朝阳区东四环中路远洋            +86 135-8164-7486
            国际中心D座17层        joe@thinkbankchina.com
                P.O 100025   www.thinkbankchina.com

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China mobile phone retail market dashboard report dec 2011_for public release

  • 1. Dec, 2011 China Mobile Phone Market Monthly Retail Audit Dashboard Report 博思咨询公司Beijing  Hong Kong January,2012 HU Yang joe@thinkbankchina.com
  • 2. a thinkbank report Special edition for global investment banks, PEs, VCs, hedge funds, securities etc. to watch the trends that are shaping and will transform the future of Chinese mobile world. Presented by retail.panel
  • 3. Retail Data Collected from Nationwide Audit and Channel Check 3
  • 4. …Insights Derived from Continuous Consumer Researches 4
  • 5. Table of Contents Size Share Product Price Subscriber 5
  • 6. Key Figures in Dec-11 Market Size | 3G | Subscribers | Av. Selling Price 3G Sales Units in Dec-11 +11.0%M/M 2011 YTD M-size 11.6 Million +17.3% Y/Y Mobile phone penetration 235 Dec-11 ASP Million Dec-11 M-size +6.9%M/M 74 185 pct USD 20.5 +27.5% Y/Y Million 3G subscriber new addition in Dec-11 CM=3.2M 9.6 CU=3.5M Million CT=3.1M 6
  • 7. Market Size Summary / 2011 235million units sold to end users, representing +17.3% Y/Y growth in 2011. 2011 Year to Date Market Size // Dec, 2011 +17.3% robust growth through 2011 235 • China mobile phone retail market size witnessed rapid +17.3% growth in 2011, reached 235 million in 2011, up 17.3% y/y. It’s worthy notice that market size in 2nd half of Million units Year-on-year 2011 grew remarkably +27%, mainly driven by smartphones, which also indicates dramatic growth rate in 2012. YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology • 3G market size increased rapidly at the shrink of 2G 2G Device Market (Million) 3G Device Market (Million) market, to 128 million or 54% of total market in the entire 2011. GSM 63.3(27%) TD-SCDMA 27.6(12%) GPRS/EDGE 45.7(19%) WCDMA 49.5(21%) • WCDMA phones outperform that of TD-SCDMA & EVDO in 2011, registered 49.5 million units due to CDMA1X 19.0(8%) EVDO 30.0(13%) more diversified brands and products. While TD- SCDMA and EVDO continued to suffer from more or YTD Market Size Breakdown by Market Type less the same problem of weak products and limited Market Type Sales (M) Percentage % phone manufacturers. Phones with CTA(1) 235 86.3% • White-box market encountered slowing down because White-box (without CTA) 16.3 6.0% of 3G and smart phone growth. Grey market(2) 21.0 7.7% (1)CTA: Certification of Type Approval by Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (2)Grey market: mainly smuggling phones from overseas. 7 ***Market size in this report are referring to CTA market size unless there is specific notation.
  • 8. Monthly Market Size Development 20.5 million phones sold in Dec-11, including 11.6 million 3G phones, closing the whole year with 235 million units or +17.3% y/y growth. Market growth accelerated in the 2nd half of 2011, grew by +27% y/y. Total Market Size Development (2G + 3G) in millions 25 2009 2010 2011 21.8 21.9 20.1 20.5 20.5 20 19.2 19.2 19.2 18.7 18.6 17.7 17.6 15 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Market (million units) 3G Market (million units) Total Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth % 3G Size M/M growth % Y/Y growth % 20.5 +6.9 +27.5 11.6 +11.0 +122% 8
  • 9. 3G Market Size Trend by Technology WCDMA market size is burgeoning, accounting for nearly half of China’s 3G market as the end of 2011. China 3G Market Size Development by Technology // 2009~Now (M units) 15 EVDO TD-SCDMA 11.6 WCDMA 11.2 10.5 10.5 3G Total 9.6 10 9.0 8.4 8.6 WCDMA 47% 7.6 7.3 6.6 y = 0.0088x2 + 0.0256x - 0.2445 6.1 R²= 0.9925 5.2 5 4.5 4.8 26% 3.7 3.7 3.6 TD-SCDMA 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.7 1.9 1.3 27% 0.6 0.9 EVDO 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9
  • 10. 2G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11 2G market holds 43% unit share in Dec-11 meanwhile captured only 25% value share due to lower ASP of 2G phones. 2G Market = 8.9M units 2G Market = 1.4B US$ (43% of China Market) (25% of China Market) (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X) (GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X) NOKIA Nokia Samsung Samsung 18.2% 21.3% Gionee 1.5% OPPO 27.1% 26.5% OPPO 2.2% BBK 1.7% Tianyu 2.6% Gionee 2.0% BBK 3.3% Lenovo 2.6% Lenovo 4.3% Tianyu 15.7% 3.7% LG 7.1% Motorola 19.3% Motorola LG 4.7% 7.3% ZTE 11.3% DOOV 4.9% 6.0% 6.7% Others Others 10
  • 11. 3G Brand Unit Shares vs. Value Share / Dec-11 With 57% unit share, 3G market occupied 75% of total value share in Dec-11, Nokia still held 19.8% value share and ranked #2 in 3G market. 3G Market =11.6M units 3G Market =2.4B US$ (57% of China Market) (75% of China Market) (TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO) (TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/EVDO) 2.5% Samsung 7.7% Samsung 2.9% 17.6% Huawei 3.8% Nokia 21.4% ZTE Apple 28.3% 2.3% NOKIA Motorola 2.6% 4.3% Lenovo Huawei 3.3% 4.3% Apple ZTE 5.0% 13.0% Coolpad 5.2% HTC HTC Coolpad 5.2% 6.3% Motorola SonyEricsson 19.8% 8.3% 11.0% SonyEricsson Lenovo 14.8% 10.4% Others Others 11
  • 12. 3G Market Monthly Brand Market Share Development Nokia has been losing market share for the whole year in 3G market, however, it seems that Samsung failed to grab the opportunity. China local manufacturers ZTE & Huawei gained remarkable market share growth in 2011. 3G Market Top10 Brand Shares Development 100%= 6.1 6.6 7.6 7.3 8.4 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.5 11.6 100% Samsung 90% 23% 19% 19% 20% 21% 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 24% 24% Huawei 80% 9% 10% ZTE 6% 10% 11% 12% 70% 10% 11% 11% 14% 13% 5% 6% 14% NOKIA 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 60% 11% 11% 11% Lenovo 11% 11% 50% 30% 32% 26% 10% Apple 27% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15% 12% 15% 40% Coolpad 6% 6% 4% 5% HTC 30% 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% Motorola 20% SonyEricsson 10% 18% 14% 11% 12% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 15% 11% 11% Others 0% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 12
  • 13. Brand Market Share Trend Nokia is declining in the 2nd half of 2011 in total market, while Lenovo, Huawei & ZTE was catching up quickly. In 3G market, Nokia was going down dramatically and Lenovo in particularly was growing dramatically in Q4. 2G+3G Market Brand Shares Trend 3G Market Brand Shares Trend 30% 10% 30% 10% Samsung Huawei Samsung Lenovo Nokia ZTE Apple Huawei Lenovo ZTE Coolpad 25% Gionee 25% Nokia HTC 8% Tianyu 8% Motorola Coolpad 20% 20% 15% 6% 6% 15% 10% 4% 4% 10% 5% 0% 2% 5% 2% Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 13
  • 14. WCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11 Samsung was dominating with 25.7% m-share & 1.4 million units shipment, followed by Nokia with 20.9% m-share & nearly 1.1 million units shipment in Dec-11. Dec-11 M-Share # Brand Sales K M-Share change Coolpad, 1 Samsung 25.7% (1.9) 1397 2.4% 2 NOKIA 20.9% (5.1) 1135 SonyEricsson, Others, 3 Apple 11.0% 3.0 600 2.6% 10.5% 4 Lenovo 8.4% 1.7 457 Motorola, 5 ZTE 5.9% (0.0) 323 Samsung, 3.6% 25.7% 6 HTC 5.0% 1.0 269 7 Huawei 3.9% 1.0 210 Huawei, 3.9% 8 Motorola 3.6% (0.3) 197 HTC, 5.0% 9 SonyEricsson 2.6% 0.2 143 10 Coolpad 2.4% 1.0 130 NOKIA, ZTE, 5.9% 11 MI 1.8% 1.8 100 20.9% 12 LG 1.7% (0.6) 95 Lenovo, 13 Tianyu 1.1% (0.1) 62 8.4% Apple, 14 BlackBerry 1.0% 0.7 55 11.0% 15 Gionee 0.8% 0.1 45 16 OPPO 0.8% (0.1) 45 17 BBK 0.8% 0.4 43 18 Hisense 0.5% 0.3 27 19 CHANGHONG 0.5% 0.3 27 20 Dopod 0.3% (0.1) 18 14
  • 15. EVDO: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11 Huawei exceeded Samsung in EVDO market and became the number 1 brand with 26.3% unit share, which can be attributed to a range of best selling CT customized thousand-yuan Android smart phones. Dec-11 M-Share # Brand Sales K M-Share change 1 Huawei 26.3% (2.8) 836 2 Samsung 22.2% (0.9) 708 3 ZTE 7.1% (1.9) 225 4 Coolpad 6.1% (1.8) 196 5 Haier 4.0% 0.5 128 Others, 21.4% BenWee, 6 SonyEricsson 3.3% 0.3 105 2.1% Huawei, 7 HTC 2.9% (0.7) 91 26.3% 8 LG 2.4% 1.3 77 EMI, 2.1% 9 EMI 2.1% 0.9 68 10 BenWee 2.1% 0.9 68 LG, 2.4% 11 Hisense 1.9% 0.9 61 HTC, 2.9% Samsung, 12 EPHONE 1.8% 0.9 58 SonyEricsson, 22.2% 13 Motorola 1.8% (3.0) 58 Haier, 4.0% 3.3% 14 SHARP 1.3% (0.2) 41 ZTE, Coolpad, 7.1% 6.1% 15
  • 16. TD-SCDMA: Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11 China domestic manufactures were jointly ruling the TD market. ZTE was the no.1 manufacturer with 24.1% and followed by Lenovo with 16.5%, Huawei with 15.4%. Dec-11 M-Share # Brand Sales K M-Share change 1 ZTE 24.1% 0.8 729 2 Lenovo 16.5% 1.5 500 3 Huawei 15.4% 0.5 468 Hisense, 4 Samsung 12.9% (0.1) 392 1.6% 1.4% 5 Coolpad 8.4% (1.8) 255 LG, Others, 6 Tianyu 4.2% 1.1 127 Gionee, 2.2% 10.9% 7 NOKIA 2.4% 0.1 71 Nokia, 2.4% 8 Gionee 2.2% 0.1 68 ZTE, 24.1% 9 LG 1.4% (1.3) 43 Tianyu, 4.2% 10 Hisense 1.6% (0.4) 48 11 DESAY 1.2% (0.9) 35 Coolpad, 12 Bird 1.1% (0.8) 34 8.4% Lenovo, 16.5% 13 Motorola 1.4% (0.1) 43 14 ASUS 1.3% 0.4 38 Samsung, 15 HTC 0.9% (0.1) 26 12.9% 16 Mastone 0.9% 0.1 27 Huawei, 17 Haier 0.9% 0.5 29 15.4% 18 SonyEricsson 0.7% 0.2 21 19 T-SMART 0.5% 0.1 16 20 SICT 0.4% 0.1 11 21 DELL 0.2% (0.2) 7 22 BlackBerry 0.3% 0.1 11 23 Dopod 0.2% (0.0) 8 24 Postcom 0.1% (0.1) 3 25 TCL 0.2% 0.1 6 16
  • 17. 2G(GSM/CDMA) Market Size & Brand Share / Dec-11 Nokia still holds the no.1 position in 2G market with 27.1% unit share, or 2.4 million units shipment in Dec-11. Dec-11 M- M-Share # Brand Sales K Share change 1 NOKIA 27.1% 0.8 2407 2 Samsung 19.3% (0.5) 1719 3 Gionee 6.7% 0.1 592 4 OPPO 6.0% 0.2 536 5 Tianyu 4.9% 0.9 437 6 BBK 4.7% 0.0 419 7 Lenovo 3.7% (0.4) 327 8 LG 2.6% (0.0) 229 Others, 21.3% 9 Motorola 2.0% 0.2 176 ZTE, 1.7% NOKIA, 10 ZTE 1.7% (0.2) 149 Motorola, 27.1% 11 Huawei 1.3% (0.2) 116 2.0% 12 Konka 1.2% (0.1) 109 LG, 2.6% 13 Bird 1.0% 0.0 93 14 DOOV 1.0% 0.0 84 Lenovo, 3.7% Samsung, 15 Philips 0.9% (0.1) 83 19.3% BBK, 4.7% 16 HOT 0.8% 0.7 74 17 Hisense 0.8% 0.1 67 Tianyu, 4.9% 18 Coolpad 0.7% 0.1 65 19 CHANGHONG 0.7% (0.2) 64 OPPO, 6.0% Gionee, 6.7% 20 Koobee 0.6% 0.0 55 21 DESAY 0.5% 0.1 46 22 AUX 0.5% 0.0 44 23 Haier 0.5% 0.0 43 24 Malata 0.5% (0.1) 42 25 HOSIN 0.4% (0.1) 38 17
  • 18. Price Tier Development 80.5% phones were sold under 1,500rmb in 2011. Price Tier Development (2G + 3G) in CNY >=3000 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 7.4% 7.5% 7.0% 7.2% 6.3% 8.3% 2500-2999 6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.1% 8.3% 8.6% 8.8% 6.8% 6.7% 7.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.5% 2000-2499 22.2% 21.4% 19.5% 19.9% 17.4% 17.6% 21.3% 21.5% 19.9% 19.9% 20.3% 21.3% 21.4% 1500-1999 1000-1499 16.7% 17.6% 18.7% 17.6% 19.7% 18.0% 18.9% 18.4% 17.8% 19.3% 16.7% 18.1% 17.3% 700-999 18.8% 17.6% 19.1% 15.2% 20.9% 19.7% 18.4% 17.1% 16.4% 16.2% 16.8% 15.4% 17.6% 400-699 <400 26.2% 26.3% 24.1% 22.4% 23.0% 25.4% 23.9% 24.2% 27.3% 23.8% 23.9% 24.1% 24.5% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 YTD 18
  • 19. Weighted Average Retail Price Development 3G phone ASP stabilized in 2011 while WCDMA phones was apparently sold higher than that of EVDO and TD- SCDMA phones. Average Retail Price Weighted by Sales Units (CNY) 4000 WCDMA EVDO TD-SCDMA 2G Overall 3G Overall 3000 2000 1000 0 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 19
  • 20. Display Size and Camera Resolution Trend Big screens and high resolution cameras were the main product trend in 2011. Phones with >4.0 screen and >3MP or 5MP camera will be the mainstream product features in 2012. Display Size Trend / 2009~now Camera Resolution Trend / 2009~now 4% 2% 4% 3% 5% 2% 4% 9% >8MP >=5inch 9% 11% 25% 13% 8MP 16% 32% 17% 17% 45% 4-4.9inch 5MP 22% 20% 49% 15% 3MP 3-3.9inch 23% 11% 2MP 44% 30% 18% 2-2.9inch 22% 1MP 7% 21% 4% 300K 19% 19% 52% <2inch 42% None-cmr 29% 34% 33% 28% 20% 18% 2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11 2009 2010 2011YTD Dec-11 20
  • 21. Smart Phone Market Android phones were ramping in 2011, driving smart phone penetration rate of China market grow to >30%, almost doubled in 2011. Smart Phone Market Size Split by OS / Smart Phone Penetration Rate 10 40% Symbian 36%36% 35% Android 33% 33% Apple 8 Microsoft 29%29% 28% 30% Others 26% 0.7 SM as % of Total 0.6 6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 20% 19% 20% 0.4 0.4 4.6 4 14% 15% 14% 0.3 2.6 3.1 4.2 13% 1.7 4.0 4.2 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 2.1 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10%10% 0.2 0.2 1.4 9% 8% 8% 9%10% 10% 0.8 0.9 10% 0.3 2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 0 0% 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21
  • 22. 3G Market / Dec-11 11.6 million 3G devices sold out while 3G subscribers added 9.8 million in Dec-11, which means 16% 3G phone users still keep with 2G services. 3G Subscriber Share by Operator (in million) China Total Accumulated 3G subscribers as the end of Dec-11 is 128 million Operator Dec-11 New Addition (M) Network Technology Subscriber Device CM TD-SCDMA 3.2 (33%) 3.0 (26%) Operating by CU 40, 31% 51.2, 40% CT EVDO 3.1 (32%) 3.2 (28%) Operating by CT CU WCDMA 3.5 (35%) 5.4 (46%) Operating by CMCC 36.4, 29% China Total 9.8 11.6 22
  • 23. Subscriber by Operator / Dec-11 As the end of Dec-11, China registered 987 million mobile phone subscribes with around 128 million new additions in 2011. Number of total 3G subscribers reached 128 million, i.e. 13% of total. 987 million mobile phone subscribers as the end of 2011 in China, representing the nationwide mobile phone penetration rate of 74%. Total: 199.6 million (20.5%) Total: 126 million (12.9%) 128 million • 2G: 159.6 [80%] • 2G: 89.6 [71%] • 3G: 40.0 [20%] • 3G: 36.4 [29%] Accumulated 3G subs.: 32.2M of 3G subscribers, i.e. 13% of China Accumulated 3G subs.: 51M total mobile subscribers. Total: 649.6 million (66.6%) • 2G: 598 [92%] • 3G: 51.2 [8%] Accumulated 3G subs.: 65.6M China total subscriber and 3G new addition data are quoted from MIIT; By operator data are coming from operators’ public release. 23 Please note that There is slight discrepancies with MIIT & operator data.
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