1. 英译中
原文
Evolving Networks, Evolving Models -- IDC Predicts
Top 10 Most Impactful Telecommunications Trends
across Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) in 2007
Singapore and Hong Kong, January 18, 2007 –
According to IDC's Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan)
Telecommunications 2007 Top 10 Predictions, Doc
#AP2012S1N, 2007 will be a period of evolution, and
network and IT equipment will shift its focus from
hardware to a greater emphasis on software and
services.
"The telecommunications industry in APEJ is facing
a period of evolution, as lines between traditional
2. network architectures and services disappear,
spurred by developments in technology and end-user
usage patterns and demand. From convergence to
shifting go-to-market strategies, both equipment
vendors and telcos will need to better position
themselves for the coming change," says Sandra Ng,
Vice President for IDC's Asia/Pacific
Communications, Peripherals, and Services research.
The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) telecom services
market was worth over US$183 billion in 2006 and is
projected to achieve 10% growth to exceed US$202
billion in 2007. Growth will continue to come from
VoIP, Broadband, IP Services and 3G Services. In
addition, the networking equipment market,
estimated at over US$7.2 billion in 2006, is
expected to grow to over US$8 billion in 2007.
Drawing from the latest IDC research and internal
brainstorming sessions among IDC's global, regional
3. and country telecommunications and network
analysts, the following represents IDC's high-level
look at trends, vendor and service provider
strategies, as well as new technologies that will
emerge and impact the industry and its players in
2007.
IDC's Top 10 Predictions for the
Telecommunications Market in APEJ for 2007:
1. Increase in Layer 2 Ethernet services
Telecommunication service providers in APEJ have
been active in rolling out optical fiber-based
metro Ethernet services in most major cities across
the region for the past few years. While these
services were previously confined to mature markets
such as Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore, they are
now available in most major cities from Bombay in
4. the west to Jakarta in the east. IDC expects most,
if not all, major carriers in APEJ to start
offering point-to-point metro Ethernet services in
2007 and that the service will gain considerable
traction in the market by the end of the year.
2. Services get caught in the wireless mesh
After much hype, 2007 will be the year where
wireless mesh services will emerge in Asia. IDC
believes this will occur because of its potential
for large-scale wireless deployments, strong
support from governments and the availability of
blueprints from visible mesh deployments in North
America, and to a lesser extent in Europe.
3. Building the WiMAX highway for greater
connectivity
5. IDC believes that many larger WiMAX vendors will
offer advanced antenna solutions in 2007 to achieve
greater spectral efficiencies compared to
alternative wireless technologies. The combination
of IP-friendly interfaces, VoIP streaming, cost
performance advantages, and the scalability of
mobile WiMAX has already encouraged multiple trial
deployments in the region. Going forward, IDC
expects that ultimately mobile WiMAX will become
the mainstay of licensed BWA across APEJ in the
long-term.
4. Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) enables
mass-market consumer mobility
The move to consumer FMC is occurring in the APEJ
region, with multiple operators looking at
strategies to leverage its development. After
6. several years of discussion, technologies and
products relating to FMC have progressed to the
stage where initial deployments, either on a trial
or commercial basis, are likely to be offered in
2007. This shift to FMC is going to trigger
restructuring and changes in the business models as
well as network infrastructure of carriers. While
FMC will threaten some legacy services, it will
also create new opportunities for fixed and mobile
carriers to compete in each other's space.
5. IM evolves as the next collaborative tool
in mobile business communication
The business world is increasingly focused on
collaboration, which is challenging given the need
to coordinate among coworkers who may be spread
across different cities or even continents. Mobile
IM provides a superior messaging alternative for
fast and cost-effective communication, particularly
7. when the workforce is dispersed in remote
locations, where workers may not have access to
their corporate intranet over LAN. IDC expects
prosumers or professional consumers to drive
enterprises to deploy IM solutions initially and IM
will progressively evolve from being a standalone
product to a communication product that is well
integrated with other business applications.
6. Application-aware networking will grow in
the enterprise
Application-aware networking is defined as
solutions that make intelligent routing, security,
and delivery decisions regarding network traffic. A
key priority among these products is the need to
provide a secure and reliable architecture for
enterprise applications, Web applications, or
applications that run over TCP/IP. Traditionally,
whenever latency issues arose over the WAN, the
8. immediate solution among enterprises was to
purchase more bandwidth, increasing the capacity of
its pipe. However, the market has realized that
increasing bandwidth alone may not necessarily
solve latency issues experienced in a WAN.
Application-aware networking can be used to
alleviate this issue. 2007 will be an significant
year for application-aware networking as most
vendors have settled down after the acquisition
frenzy and have formulated aggressive strategies to
acquire new customers.
7. Network Equipment Providers refine
tradition channel distribution model by
going direct
Traditionally, network equipment providers (NEPs)
have built up and utilized an ecosystem of channel
9. partners to distribute their products to
enterprises. While this model has served remarkably
well in the past, IDC believes that it will evolve
in 2007. While differentiation and innovation
continue to be key and indispensable in staying
ahead of the game, NEPs are looking into expanding
their service offerings as a means of
distinguishing themselves from competitors. IDC
predicts that direct sales, especially for larger
or tier 1 accounts, will become strategically more
important for NEPs.
8. Mobile TV to become a reality in key
markets in the region
While mobile TV service has been available in APEJ
since 2005, service providers in the region have
shown mixed interest in the service, although this
may change soon. As ARPUs continue to drop
throughout the region, service providers are
10. searching for new revenue streams and many believe
they will find it in mobile TV. In 2007, IDC
believes that many service providers will trial and
commercially launch the service in the more
developed markets of APEJ.
9. Peer to peer services threatens growth
and development of IPTV
In the APEJ region, multiple service providers have
placed an increasing emphasis on the potential of
IPTV. In 2007, activity surrounding IPTV is set to
remain strong, both among service providers and
among the vendor community. However, the emergence
of P2P services that re-broadcast signals from
cable or IPTV networks over the Internet needs
attention. These P2P services presently originate
mainly from China, with increasing usage in the
region . Starting in 2007, IPTV operators in APEJ
and around the world will need to closely watch the
11. development of these services in a bid to mitigate
this threat.
10. Web 2.0 presents new opportunities and
new challenges
The APEJ region has some of the most advanced, and
connected, telecommunications populations in the
world. While developments in FMC continue, other
applications and solutions are being developed to
provide a richer experience to end-users. Among
these, applications associated with Web 2.0 are
gaining traction in the region. Web 2.0 generally
refers to new applications and processes of using
the Internet to increase collaboration and
interaction among end-users via the Web platform.
IDC expects 2007 to be a year when their popularity
will push service providers to develop strategies
to harness the development, both within the
enterprise and among consumers.
12. For more information about purchasing the report,
"Asia/Pacific (Excluding Japan) Telecommunications
2007 Top 10 Predictions, Doc #AP2012S1N, please
contact Selina Ang at +65-6829-7717 or
sang@idc.com. For press enquiries, please contact
Holly Fung at +852-2905-4225 or hfung@idc.com.
译文
网络在演变,业务模式也要变!
——IDC 预言 2007:亚太地区(不含日本)电信业的 10
大趋势
新加坡、香港 07 年 1 月 18 日讯:IDC 的专题研究报告《亚
太地区(不含日本)电信业 07 年之十大预测》(文件号:
AP2012S1N)预测:07 年将是演变之年,网络与 IT 设备的
发展重点将从硬件转向更加重视软件和服务。