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EC4004
         Lecture 6
Probability and Game Theory
    Dr Stephen Kinsella
A Panda
  is for life.

Not Just for
The Debs.
Today
1. Risk
2. Insurance
3. Game Theory
Yesterday
1. Risk
4 Ideas:
1.


Probability: Average
Frequency of events
2.
Expected value of game
with a number of
uncertain outcomes: size
of prize player will win
on average.
3.

Fair games are games that
cost precisely their
expected value.
4.
Risk aversion is tendency
for people to refuse to
accept fair games.
Combine 4 ideas with
Diminishing Marginal
Utility to get:
Utility
                                      U




      0   20   30   33 35   40   50         Income
                                          (thousands
                                           of euros)
Utility
                                       U




       0   20   30   33 35   40   50         Income
                                           (thousands
                                            of euros)




Here’s a person a person with three options.
Contender may:
1. retain current income level (€35,000) without taking any risk;
2. take a fair bet with a 50-50 chance of winning or losing €5,000;
3. take a fair bet with a a 50-50 chance of winning or losing
€15,000.
2. Insurance
Utility
                         U
    U1




                               Income
      0   20   25   35       (thousands
                              of euros)
Utility
                                    U
    U1




                                          Income
      0            20   25     35       (thousands
                                         of euros)




 Assume that during next year a person with €10,000 current
 income faces a 50 percent chance of incurring €4,000 in
 unexpected medical bills.
 Without insurance, the person’s utility would be U1, - i.e. the
 utility of the average of €6000 and €10,000.
3. Game Theory
Study of Strategic
   Interaction
Study of Strategic
   Interaction
3 Components to Any
      Game
1. Players
2. Payoffs
3. Strategies
Equilibrium
A Nash equilibrium is a set of
strategies, one for each player,
that are each best responses
against one another.
In a two-player games, a Nash
equilibrium is a pair of
strategies (a*,b*) such that a* is
an optimal strategy for A
against b* and b* is an optimal
strategy for B against A*.
A Beautiful Mind
Next Time: More Game Theory
Iterated Prisoners Dilemma

Try 6.1, 6.3, 6.5
EC4004
         Lecture 6
Probability and Game Theory
    Dr Stephen Kinsella

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EC4004 Lecture 6 Risk and Game Theory