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EC433 Lecture 2
 Stephen Kinsella




                     History
                     Budget
                    CU Theory
Last Week

EU is an economic solution to a
political Problem
Today’s Main Message

“History affects
current spending
priorities and affects
the path of economic
integration”
3 big increases in EU economic
           integration




             4
3 big increases in EU economic
           integration




             4
3 big increases in EU economic
                   integration

1. Formation of the Customs Union, 1958- 1986




                         4
3 big increases in EU economic
                   integration

1. Formation of the Customs Union, 1958- 1986
2. Single Market program, 1986-1992




                         4
3 big increases in EU economic
                   integration

1. Formation of the Customs Union, 1958- 1986
2. Single Market program, 1986-1992
3. European Economic and Monetary Union, 1992-
  present




                         4
Stage of    No     Common Factor
                                      Common Common
Integratio Internal External +Asset
                                      Currency Ec. Policy
    n      Barriers  Tarrif  Mobility
   FTA       X
   CU        X        X
Single Mkt   X        X         X
Monetary
             X        X         X         X
 Union
Economic
             X        X         X         X         X
  Union
Budget Priorities
Budget Priorities
Budget Priorities


               Research   Admin
               Other      Aid
               Regional   CAP
1.27%
  of
GDP
Transaction Cost Ecs

For the Firm
 Costs of compliance with contracts,
 social conventions, supply-chain
 problems.
Phases of Ec.
       Integration
EMU




                  Integration
Common Mkt
Economic Union
Customs Union
Free Trade Area
Phases of Ec.
       Integration
EMU




                  Integration
Common Mkt
Economic Union
Customs Union
Free Trade Area
Source: McDonald & Dearden, pg. 44
Costs from
                    Fragmented
                      Markets




  Legal,
Regulatory
                                                  Macro Costs
  Costs




             Source: McDonald & Dearden, pg. 44
Costs from
                    Fragmented
                      Markets




  Legal,
Regulatory
                                                  Macro Costs
  Costs




             Source: McDonald & Dearden, pg. 44
Why is Trade good?
What is FreeTrade?
What is FreeTrade?
Absence of tariffs, quotas,
or other governmental
impediments to international
trade
What is FreeTrade?
Absence of tariffs, quotas,
or other governmental
impediments to international
trade
SO?
What is FreeTrade?
Absence of tariffs, quotas,
or other governmental
impediments to international
trade allows each country to
SO? that it can produce
      specialize in the goods

      cheaply and efficiently
      relative to other
      countries.
Trade Creation
But first...
Price, €
Price, €




           Quantity,
           (Items)
Price, €




           Quantity,
           (Items)
Price, €




           Demand Schedule
              Quantity,
               (Items)
Price, €




           Demand Schedule
              Quantity,
               (Items)
Price, €


                  Supply
                 Schedule




           Demand Schedule
              Quantity,
               (Items)
Price, €


                  Supply
                 Schedule




           Demand Schedule
              Quantity,
               (Items)
Price, €


                  Supply
                 Schedule




           Demand Schedule
              Quantity,
               (Items)
Price, €


                          Supply
                         Schedule

Eq. Price, P*


                   Demand Schedule
                      Quantity,
                       (Items)
Price, €


                                           Supply
                                          Schedule

Eq. Price, P*


                                    Demand Schedule
                                       Quantity,
                   Eq. Quantity, Q*
                                        (Items)
Price, €


                                             Supply
                CS                          Schedule

Eq. Price, P*


                                      Demand Schedule
                                         Quantity,
                     Eq. Quantity, Q*
                                          (Items)
Trade Creation is
           “The increase in trade volume
           caused by union with a lower
           cost (more efficient) supplier
           within the trade bloc”
                             ––Viner, 1950
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




                          Supply Home




          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)




                          Supply Home




                        Demand Home

          B         D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                          Supply Home




                        Demand Home

           B        D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                          Supply Home




                        Demand Home
                               Q
           B        D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                          Supply Home




                        Demand Home
                               Q
           B        D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                          Supply Home




                        Demand Home
                               Q
           B        D
Trade Creation   (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                          Supply Home




      P*




                        Demand Home
                               Q
           B        D
Trade Creation        (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                               Supply Home




      P*




                             Demand Home
                                    Q
           B     C*      D
Trade Creation        (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                               Supply Home




      P*




                             Demand Home
                                    Q
           B     C*      D
Trade Creation        (High Cost to Low Cost)


       P

                               Supply Home




      P*




                             Demand Home
                                    Q
           B     C*      D
Trade Creation              (High Cost to Low Cost)


               P

                                     Supply Home




              P*



  Pworld pre tax
                                   Demand Home
                                          Q
                   B   C*      D
Trade Creation              (High Cost to Low Cost)


               P

                                     Supply Home




              P*

  Punion pre tax

  Pworld pre tax
                                   Demand Home
                                          Q
                   B   C*      D
Trade Creation              (High Cost to Low Cost)


               P

                                     Supply Home




              P*

  Punion pre tax

  Pworld pre tax
                                   Demand Home
                                          Q
                   B   C*      D
Trade Creation              (High Cost to Low Cost)


               P

                                     Supply Home




              P*

  Punion pre tax

  Pworld pre tax
                                   Demand Home
                                          Q
                   B   C*      D
Trade Creation              (High Cost to Low Cost)


               P

                                     Supply Home




              P*

  Punion pre tax

  Pworld pre tax
                                   Demand Home
                                          Q
                   B   C*      D
Trade Creation              (High Cost to Low Cost)


               P

                                     Supply Home




              P*

  Punion pre tax

  Pworld pre tax
                                   Demand Home
                                          Q
                   B   C*      D
Trade Creation               (High Cost to Low Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home
  Punion post tax




               P*

  Punion pre tax

  Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Creation               (High Cost to Low Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home
  Punion post tax

  Pworld post tax

               P*

   Punion pre tax

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                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Creation                   (High Cost to Low Cost)


                P

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  Punion post tax

  Pworld post tax

               P*

   Punion pre tax
                    E
  Pworld pre tax
                                        Demand Home
                                               Q
                        B   C*      D
Trade Creation                       (High Cost to Low Cost)


                P

                                              Supply Home
  Punion post tax

  Pworld post tax

               P*

   Punion pre tax
                    E       F
  Pworld pre tax
                                            Demand Home
                                                   Q
                        B       C*      D
Trade Creation                           (High Cost to Low Cost)


                P

                                                  Supply Home
  Punion post tax

  Pworld post tax

               P*

   Punion pre tax
                    E       F        G
  Pworld pre tax
                                                Demand Home
                                                       Q
                        B       C*          D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




                           Supply Home




           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)




                           Supply Home




                         Demand Home

           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)


       P

                           Supply Home




                         Demand Home

           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)


       P

                           Supply Home




                         Demand Home
                                Q
           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)


       P

                           Supply Home




                         Demand Home
                                Q
           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)


       P

                           Supply Home




                         Demand Home
                                Q
           B         D
Trade Diversion   (Low Cost to High Cost)


        P

                           Supply Home




       P*




                         Demand Home
                                Q
            B        D
Trade Diversion        (Low Cost to High Cost)


        P

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       P*




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                                     Q
            B     C*      D
Trade Diversion        (Low Cost to High Cost)


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       P*




                              Demand Home
                                     Q
            B     C*      D
Trade Diversion        (Low Cost to High Cost)


        P

                                Supply Home




       P*




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                                     Q
            B     C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




              P*




   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




              P*



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   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




              P*



   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




              P*



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   Pworld pre tax
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                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




              P*



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   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




              P*



   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




               P*
  Punion post tax


   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




               P*
  Punion post tax
  Pworld post tax
   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




               P*
  Punion post tax
  Pworld post tax
   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




               P*
  Punion post tax
  Pworld post tax
   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




               P*
  Punion post tax
  Pworld post tax
   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
Trade Diversion              (Low Cost to High Cost)


                P

                                      Supply Home




               P*
  Punion post tax
  Pworld post tax
   Punion pre tax
   Pworld pre tax
                                    Demand Home
                                           Q
                    B   C*      D
CU Good iff


• TC > TD
€ (bn)                             % GDP
                        (a)              (b)              (a)            (b)

 Barriers to
                         8                9              0.2             0.3
   trade

Technical Regs           57              71              2.0             2.4
 Ecs. of Scale           60              61              2.0             2.4
X-inefficiency            46              46              1.6             1.6
    Total               171             187              5.8             6.4
                                At 1985 Prices
                 Source: Cecchini Report, Emerson et al, 1988.
Effects of Economic
          Union

1. Location Effects
2. Accumulation Effects
3. Allocation Effects
Price Dispersion
    (coefficient of variation)
                               1985   1993   1996
                                 %      %      %
                               21.9   15.9   15.9
 Private Final Consumption
                               25.4   25.9   27.2
  Government final cons.
                               12.8   14.5   13.5
Gross fixed capital formation
                               19.2   23.6   22.0
       Construction
                                9.1    6.7    7.7
        Machinery
                               20.1   16.2   16.3
           GDP
Beach on the
Enlargement
If you only read one
                thing...
El-Agraa, A.M., (2002), The European Union: Economics and
                Policies, 6th ed., pgs. 149–164,
                         337.142 AGR.
Thanks

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Ec4333 Lecture3 2007 Slide Share

  • 1. EC433 Lecture 2 Stephen Kinsella History Budget CU Theory
  • 2. Last Week EU is an economic solution to a political Problem
  • 3. Today’s Main Message “History affects current spending priorities and affects the path of economic integration”
  • 4. 3 big increases in EU economic integration 4
  • 5. 3 big increases in EU economic integration 4
  • 6. 3 big increases in EU economic integration 1. Formation of the Customs Union, 1958- 1986 4
  • 7. 3 big increases in EU economic integration 1. Formation of the Customs Union, 1958- 1986 2. Single Market program, 1986-1992 4
  • 8. 3 big increases in EU economic integration 1. Formation of the Customs Union, 1958- 1986 2. Single Market program, 1986-1992 3. European Economic and Monetary Union, 1992- present 4
  • 9. Stage of No Common Factor Common Common Integratio Internal External +Asset Currency Ec. Policy n Barriers Tarrif Mobility FTA X CU X X Single Mkt X X X Monetary X X X X Union Economic X X X X X Union
  • 12. Budget Priorities Research Admin Other Aid Regional CAP
  • 14. Transaction Cost Ecs For the Firm Costs of compliance with contracts, social conventions, supply-chain problems.
  • 15. Phases of Ec. Integration EMU Integration Common Mkt Economic Union Customs Union Free Trade Area
  • 16. Phases of Ec. Integration EMU Integration Common Mkt Economic Union Customs Union Free Trade Area
  • 17. Source: McDonald & Dearden, pg. 44
  • 18. Costs from Fragmented Markets Legal, Regulatory Macro Costs Costs Source: McDonald & Dearden, pg. 44
  • 19. Costs from Fragmented Markets Legal, Regulatory Macro Costs Costs Source: McDonald & Dearden, pg. 44
  • 20. Why is Trade good?
  • 22. What is FreeTrade? Absence of tariffs, quotas, or other governmental impediments to international trade
  • 23. What is FreeTrade? Absence of tariffs, quotas, or other governmental impediments to international trade SO?
  • 24. What is FreeTrade? Absence of tariffs, quotas, or other governmental impediments to international trade allows each country to SO? that it can produce specialize in the goods cheaply and efficiently relative to other countries.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 31. Price, € Quantity, (Items)
  • 32. Price, € Quantity, (Items)
  • 33. Price, € Demand Schedule Quantity, (Items)
  • 34. Price, € Demand Schedule Quantity, (Items)
  • 35. Price, € Supply Schedule Demand Schedule Quantity, (Items)
  • 36. Price, € Supply Schedule Demand Schedule Quantity, (Items)
  • 37. Price, € Supply Schedule Demand Schedule Quantity, (Items)
  • 38. Price, € Supply Schedule Eq. Price, P* Demand Schedule Quantity, (Items)
  • 39. Price, € Supply Schedule Eq. Price, P* Demand Schedule Quantity, Eq. Quantity, Q* (Items)
  • 40. Price, € Supply CS Schedule Eq. Price, P* Demand Schedule Quantity, Eq. Quantity, Q* (Items)
  • 41. Trade Creation is “The increase in trade volume caused by union with a lower cost (more efficient) supplier within the trade bloc” ––Viner, 1950
  • 42. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) B D
  • 43. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) B D
  • 44. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) B D
  • 45. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) B D
  • 46. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) B D
  • 47. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) Supply Home B D
  • 48. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) Supply Home Demand Home B D
  • 49. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home B D
  • 50. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home Q B D
  • 51. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home Q B D
  • 52. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home Q B D
  • 53. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B D
  • 54. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 55. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 56. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 57. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 58. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 59. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 60. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 61. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 62. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 63. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Punion post tax P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 64. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Punion post tax Pworld post tax P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 65. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Punion post tax Pworld post tax P* Punion pre tax E Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 66. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Punion post tax Pworld post tax P* Punion pre tax E F Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 67. Trade Creation (High Cost to Low Cost) P Supply Home Punion post tax Pworld post tax P* Punion pre tax E F G Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 68. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) B D
  • 69. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) B D
  • 70. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) B D
  • 71. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) B D
  • 72. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) B D
  • 73. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) Supply Home B D
  • 74. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) Supply Home Demand Home B D
  • 75. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home B D
  • 76. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home Q B D
  • 77. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home Q B D
  • 78. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home Demand Home Q B D
  • 79. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B D
  • 80. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 81. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 82. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 83. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 84. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 85. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 86. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 87. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 88. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 89. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion post tax Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 90. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion post tax Pworld post tax Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 91. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion post tax Pworld post tax Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 92. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion post tax Pworld post tax Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 93. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion post tax Pworld post tax Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 94. Trade Diversion (Low Cost to High Cost) P Supply Home P* Punion post tax Pworld post tax Punion pre tax Pworld pre tax Demand Home Q B C* D
  • 95. CU Good iff • TC > TD
  • 96. € (bn) % GDP (a) (b) (a) (b) Barriers to 8 9 0.2 0.3 trade Technical Regs 57 71 2.0 2.4 Ecs. of Scale 60 61 2.0 2.4 X-inefficiency 46 46 1.6 1.6 Total 171 187 5.8 6.4 At 1985 Prices Source: Cecchini Report, Emerson et al, 1988.
  • 97. Effects of Economic Union 1. Location Effects 2. Accumulation Effects 3. Allocation Effects
  • 98. Price Dispersion (coefficient of variation) 1985 1993 1996 % % % 21.9 15.9 15.9 Private Final Consumption 25.4 25.9 27.2 Government final cons. 12.8 14.5 13.5 Gross fixed capital formation 19.2 23.6 22.0 Construction 9.1 6.7 7.7 Machinery 20.1 16.2 16.3 GDP
  • 100. If you only read one thing... El-Agraa, A.M., (2002), The European Union: Economics and Policies, 6th ed., pgs. 149–164, 337.142 AGR.
  • 101. Thanks