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ПЕРЕСТА
НЬТЕ
СПРАШИ
ВАТЬ
КОГДА
ПОРОЧНЫЙ КРУГ
      БИЗНЕС ХОЧЕТ
         МНОГО

                           МЫ ДАЕМ
                        МЫ ДАЕМ ЕЩЕ БОЛЕЕ
                          НЕРЕАЛЬНЫЕ
БИЗНЕС НАЧИНАЕТ
 БИЗНЕС НАЧИНАЕТ        НЕРЕАЛЬНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ
                            ОЦЕНКИ
    ДАВИТЬ
 ДАВИТЬ СИЛЬНЕЕ

                СТАНОВИТСЯ ЕЩЕ
              МЫ НЕ ВЫПУСКАЕМ
              СЛОЖНЕЕ ВЫПУСКАТЬ
                 ОБЕЩАННОЕ
                   ВО ВРЕМЯ
слайд оставлен пустым
2013 02-abc-kiev
ПРОСТАЯ ЗАДАЧКА НА ВРЕМЯ



1. ВМЕСТЕ ОНИ СТОЯТ $1,10
2. МЫШЬ ДОРОЖЕ МЯЧИКА НА ДОЛЛАР


- СКОЛЬКО СТОИТ МЯЧИК?
2013 02-abc-kiev
НЕ ЧИТАЙТЕ ЭТОТ ТЕКСТ

  И НЕ ВЫЧИСЛЯЙТЕ
      3x3 = ?
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
ЭТО ВСЕ ВАШ «ЗАЯЦ»

ЧТЕНИЕ
  3x3 =
TO CONCLUSIONS
         JUMPING
ЗАЧЕМ НАМ «ЗАЯЦ»?
В ЧЕМ ЕЩЕ ХОРОШ «ЗАЯЦ»?
СКОЛЬКО БУДЕТ 17x38 ?
2013 02-abc-kiev
ЧТО ПОГУБИЛО РИМСКУЮ ИМПЕРИЮ?




MCMLXXXIV
                        лень :)
ЗАЯЦ vs. ЧЕРЕПАХА
малый расход энергии   огромный расход энергии

ИНТУИЦИЯ
быстрые
вычисления


                                  ЛОГИКА
                                  сложные
                                  вычисления
ЗАЯЦ vs. ЧЕРЕПАХА 2.0


 КОГДА ВЫ ВЫЧИСЛЯЕТЕ СРОКИ
КАКАЯ СИСТЕМА ДЕЛАЕТ РАСЧЕТ?
Сколько было лет
Махатме
Ганди, когда он
умер?
1. Было ли Махатме Ганди
 менее 100 лет, когда он
          умер?
                        1. Было ли Махатме Ганди
                       более 60 лет, когда он умер?


             Сколько ему было лет, когда
                 2. Сколько ему было
                       он умер?
                 лет, когда он умер?
1. Было ли Махатме Ганди
 менее 100 лет, когда он
          умер?
                        1. Было ли Махатме Ганди
                       более 60 лет, когда он умер?



         83                     68
        среднее                среднее
ЭТО ЛЮСИ
ОНА В ШОКЕ
2013 02-abc-kiev
ЛЮСИ.
ТАМ ЖЕ.
НО ДАЖЕ, ЕСЛИ
ЛЕНИВАЯ ЧЕРЕПАХА
  ПРОСНУЛАСЬ И
  ВКЛЮЧИЛАСЬ В
     ПРОЦЕСС
ПРОТИВ ВАС РАБОТАЮТ
  ЗАКОНЫ ПРИРОДЫ
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
Задержки
накапливаются.
Задержки
накапливаются.
Задержки
накапливаются.
Задержки
накапливаются.
Задержки
 накапливаются.




        Э. Голдратт

Ранние завершения
    теряются.
2013 02-abc-kiev
ОЗВУЧИВАЕМАЯ НАМИ ОЦЕНКА


    1
вероятность




                                                время




              ЭТО ПЕРВОЕ ВЕРОЯТНОЕ ВРЕМЯ ЗАВЕРШЕНИЯ
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
время
Krivitsky’s zapadLaw
НИКТО НЕ ВИДЕЛ ЛЮСИ?
ПРОЩЕ ГОВОРЯ


НАМНОГО ПРОЩЕ ОПОЗДАТЬ



      ЧЕМ УСПЕТЬ
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
НО ПРОБЛЕМА НИ В САМИХ
            СЛУЧАЙНОСТИ
ОЦЕНКАХ И ИХ НЕТОЧНОСТИ
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
ЕСТЬ ЛИ ВЫХОД???
2013 02-abc-kiev
ВЫ   ДЕДЛАЙН
2013 02-abc-kiev
ВЫ




     42           КТО-ТО ЕЩЕ



          242

     12
            142
1. Было ли Махатме Ганди
 менее 100 лет, когда он
          умер?             1. Было ли Махатме Ганди
                           более 60 лет, когда он умер?

       83                              68
      среднее
                                      среднее


        СРЕДНЕЕ ПО ВСЕМ - 76
       ПРАВИЛЬНЫЙ ОТВЕТ - 78
2013 02-abc-kiev
AS A USER
blah blah blah
S           ХЗ
    M
        L




                 GROOMING
                  СЕССИИ
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
2013 02-abc-kiev
Алексей Кривицкий
@alexeykri

www.scrumguides.com
ваши гиды к вершинам agile

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2013 02-abc-kiev