This document discusses the problems with estimation and focusing too much on timelines. It argues that estimates will always be inaccurate due to randomness and variability. Instead of focusing on estimates, the document suggests discussing capacity and scope, and continuously improving capacity while minimizing work. The overall message is to stop asking "when?" and to stop relying on estimates, as accuracy can never be guaranteed.
5. THE VICIOUS CICLE
BUSINESS HAS
ITS WANTS
WE ESTIMATE
WE FAIL MAKING
PROMISES
BUSINESS STARTS
TO PUSH
UNDER PRESSURE
WE ESTIMATE WORSE
WE FAIL AGAIN
BUSINESS PUSHES
HARDER
35. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
2 days
36. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
2 days
37. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
How good is the
spec?
2 days
38. “How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
How good is the
spec?How much time will
they allow me?
2 days
82. 83
average
68
average
1. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?
AVERAGE FOR ALL is 76
THE RIGHT ANSWER is 78 !