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Surviving the digital revolution
                                   Laurent Haug
                                   7 November 2012
Apple (2000-2012)




Laurent Haug                  6
7 November 2012
Nokia (2000-2012)




Laurent Haug                  7
7 November 2012
Surviving the digital
              revolution?




Laurent Haug                          8
7 November 2012
Protect the future from the past




Laurent Haug                                         9
7 November 2012
Laurent Haug      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html   10
7 November 2012
“In late 2004, Nokia weathered criticism from
                   investors that it was expending too much
                   effort on high-end smartphones while its rival
                   ate into its lucrative business selling
                   expensive ‘dumb’ phones. [The new CEO]
                   merged Nokia’s smartphone and basic-
                   phone operations. The result, said several
                   former executives, was that the more
                   profitable basic phone business started
                   calling the shots.




Laurent Haug      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html   10
7 November 2012
Laurent Haug      http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/   11
7 November 2012
Philisophically, the company was steeped
                  in the film business, and to embrace
                  digital meant cannibalizing its own
                  business.




Laurent Haug           http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/   11
7 November 2012
Policy should protect the future from the
                  past, not the past from the future.
                  Tim O’Reilly




Laurent Haug                                                  12
7 November 2012
Businesses should protect the future from the
                  Policy
                  past, not the past from the future.
                  Tim O’Reilly




Laurent Haug                                                 12
7 November 2012
Past vs future
                  Find your balance.
                  And adapt your governance.




Laurent Haug                                   13
7 November 2012
Look back to look ahead




Laurent Haug                                14
7 November 2012
Musicians have to hit the road
again, and make money from
playing live in front of their fans.
3D printing means anybody can
create objects from his home.
Crowdfunding takes us back
to the patronage period.
SMS: One to one, sender chooses recipient
                  Twitter: One to many, recipient chooses sender




Laurent Haug                                                       18
7 November 2012
The future looks a lot like the past
                  Try to find similarities, and see how it turned
                  out in the previous iteration.




Laurent Haug                                                        19
7 November 2012
See through the hype




Laurent Haug                             20
7 November 2012
Homepage (1990s)
Portal (2000)
Blog (2002)
Facebook (2005)
Second life (2007)
Twitter (2008)
History of media hype towards digital technologies

                          Service /                      What is became
              1995        concept
                          Homepage                            Faltered
              1996           ICQ            Concept still going strong under other forms
              1997           Push                             Faltered
              1998        eCommerce                          Important
              1999           WAP                              Faltered
              2000   1/3 failures, 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under
                           Portal                           Faltered
              2001        Napster        Concept still going strong under other forms
              2002
                     another form
                         Friendster      Concept still going strong under other forms
              2003         LinkedIn
                     Tim O’Reilly                            Important
              2004         MySpace                            Faltered
              2005           Blog            Concept still going strong under other forms
              2006         Web 2.0                           Important
              2007        Second life                         Faltered
              2008         Facebook        Important (despite the stock market nightmare)
              2009          Twitter                          Important
              2010         Wikileaks         Concept still going strong under other forms
              2011         Groupon                   Failure if you trust the IPO



Laurent Haug                                                                                27
7 November 2012
History of media hype towards digital technologies

                          Service /                            What is became
              1995        concept
                          Homepage                                  Faltered
              1996           ICQ                  Concept still going strong under other forms
              1997           Push                                   Faltered
              1998        eCommerce                                Important
              1999           WAP                                    Faltered
              2000   1/3 failures,Unscientific rule of thumb:Faltered
                           Portal    1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under
              2001
              2002
                     another form will be Concept still going strong under other forms
                          Napster
                         Friendster
                                    1/3         successful
                                    1/3 will disappear still going strong under other forms
                                                Concept
              2003         LinkedIn
                     Tim O’Reilly       1/3 will stay in another form
                                                                    Important
              2004         MySpace                                  Faltered
              2005           Blog                  Concept still going strong under other forms
              2006         Web 2.0                                 Important
              2007        Second life                               Faltered
              2008         Facebook             Important (despite the stock market nightmare)
              2009          Twitter                                Important
              2010         Wikileaks               Concept still going strong under other forms
              2011         Groupon                         Failure if you trust the IPO



Laurent Haug                                                                                      27
7 November 2012
Hype
                  Lot of noise, be pragmatic.
                  But don’t use that as an excuse to overlook
                  the important developments.




Laurent Haug                                                    28
7 November 2012
Photo did not kill painting
DVD did not kill cinema
Cars did not kill bikes
Radio/downloads did not kill the music industry
Internet did not kill media
Skype did not kill phones
Not knowing is fine




Laurent Haug                            30
7 November 2012
Laurent Haug      31
7 November 2012
The business model, which led to the
success of Google, was copied from
a company called Overture, a paid
search specialist company, based in
South California.
Next time President Bush tells you
he's going to Crawford to be with "real
Americans," remind him that there are
more World of Warcraft players in the
USA than there are farmers.
Monty Python started a YouTube
channel with tons of their sketches
streaming for free. The included links to
their DVDs at Amazon. The result was a
whopping 23,000% increase in sales.
Not knowing is fine
                  The rules of the digital world are still being
                  written, it is normal not to know.
                  Try things, fail, improve, never stop learning.




Laurent Haug                                                        35
7 November 2012
Technology is not always
                       the solution




Laurent Haug                                 39
7 November 2012
Technology is not always the solution
                  Use technologies when they bring value.
                  Don’t go too far.




Laurent Haug                                                41
7 November 2012
Surviving the digital
              revolution?
              Protect the future from the past
              Look back to look ahead
              See through the hype
              Accept the unknowns
              Technology is not always the solution



Laurent Haug                                          42
7 November 2012
The illiterate of the 21st century will not be
                  those who cannot read and write, but those
                  who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.
                  Alvin Toffler




Laurent Haug                                                       43
7 November 2012
Change before you have to.
Jack Welch




hello@laurenthaug.com
+41 78 696 64 80
@laurenthaug

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Surviving the digital revolution

  • 1. Surviving the digital revolution Laurent Haug 7 November 2012
  • 2. Apple (2000-2012) Laurent Haug 6 7 November 2012
  • 3. Nokia (2000-2012) Laurent Haug 7 7 November 2012
  • 4. Surviving the digital revolution? Laurent Haug 8 7 November 2012
  • 5. Protect the future from the past Laurent Haug 9 7 November 2012
  • 6. Laurent Haug http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html 10 7 November 2012
  • 7. “In late 2004, Nokia weathered criticism from investors that it was expending too much effort on high-end smartphones while its rival ate into its lucrative business selling expensive ‘dumb’ phones. [The new CEO] merged Nokia’s smartphone and basic- phone operations. The result, said several former executives, was that the more profitable basic phone business started calling the shots. Laurent Haug http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html 10 7 November 2012
  • 8. Laurent Haug http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/ 11 7 November 2012
  • 9. Philisophically, the company was steeped in the film business, and to embrace digital meant cannibalizing its own business. Laurent Haug http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/ 11 7 November 2012
  • 10. Policy should protect the future from the past, not the past from the future. Tim O’Reilly Laurent Haug 12 7 November 2012
  • 11. Businesses should protect the future from the Policy past, not the past from the future. Tim O’Reilly Laurent Haug 12 7 November 2012
  • 12. Past vs future Find your balance. And adapt your governance. Laurent Haug 13 7 November 2012
  • 13. Look back to look ahead Laurent Haug 14 7 November 2012
  • 14. Musicians have to hit the road again, and make money from playing live in front of their fans.
  • 15. 3D printing means anybody can create objects from his home.
  • 16. Crowdfunding takes us back to the patronage period.
  • 17. SMS: One to one, sender chooses recipient Twitter: One to many, recipient chooses sender Laurent Haug 18 7 November 2012
  • 18. The future looks a lot like the past Try to find similarities, and see how it turned out in the previous iteration. Laurent Haug 19 7 November 2012
  • 19. See through the hype Laurent Haug 20 7 November 2012
  • 26. History of media hype towards digital technologies Service / What is became 1995 concept Homepage Faltered 1996 ICQ Concept still going strong under other forms 1997 Push Faltered 1998 eCommerce Important 1999 WAP Faltered 2000 1/3 failures, 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under Portal Faltered 2001 Napster Concept still going strong under other forms 2002 another form Friendster Concept still going strong under other forms 2003 LinkedIn Tim O’Reilly Important 2004 MySpace Faltered 2005 Blog Concept still going strong under other forms 2006 Web 2.0 Important 2007 Second life Faltered 2008 Facebook Important (despite the stock market nightmare) 2009 Twitter Important 2010 Wikileaks Concept still going strong under other forms 2011 Groupon Failure if you trust the IPO Laurent Haug 27 7 November 2012
  • 27. History of media hype towards digital technologies Service / What is became 1995 concept Homepage Faltered 1996 ICQ Concept still going strong under other forms 1997 Push Faltered 1998 eCommerce Important 1999 WAP Faltered 2000 1/3 failures,Unscientific rule of thumb:Faltered Portal 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under 2001 2002 another form will be Concept still going strong under other forms Napster Friendster 1/3 successful 1/3 will disappear still going strong under other forms Concept 2003 LinkedIn Tim O’Reilly 1/3 will stay in another form Important 2004 MySpace Faltered 2005 Blog Concept still going strong under other forms 2006 Web 2.0 Important 2007 Second life Faltered 2008 Facebook Important (despite the stock market nightmare) 2009 Twitter Important 2010 Wikileaks Concept still going strong under other forms 2011 Groupon Failure if you trust the IPO Laurent Haug 27 7 November 2012
  • 28. Hype Lot of noise, be pragmatic. But don’t use that as an excuse to overlook the important developments. Laurent Haug 28 7 November 2012
  • 29. Photo did not kill painting DVD did not kill cinema Cars did not kill bikes Radio/downloads did not kill the music industry Internet did not kill media Skype did not kill phones
  • 30. Not knowing is fine Laurent Haug 30 7 November 2012
  • 31. Laurent Haug 31 7 November 2012
  • 32.
  • 33. The business model, which led to the success of Google, was copied from a company called Overture, a paid search specialist company, based in South California.
  • 34. Next time President Bush tells you he's going to Crawford to be with "real Americans," remind him that there are more World of Warcraft players in the USA than there are farmers.
  • 35. Monty Python started a YouTube channel with tons of their sketches streaming for free. The included links to their DVDs at Amazon. The result was a whopping 23,000% increase in sales.
  • 36. Not knowing is fine The rules of the digital world are still being written, it is normal not to know. Try things, fail, improve, never stop learning. Laurent Haug 35 7 November 2012
  • 37. Technology is not always the solution Laurent Haug 39 7 November 2012
  • 38. Technology is not always the solution Use technologies when they bring value. Don’t go too far. Laurent Haug 41 7 November 2012
  • 39. Surviving the digital revolution? Protect the future from the past Look back to look ahead See through the hype Accept the unknowns Technology is not always the solution Laurent Haug 42 7 November 2012
  • 40. The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. Alvin Toffler Laurent Haug 43 7 November 2012
  • 41. Change before you have to. Jack Welch hello@laurenthaug.com +41 78 696 64 80 @laurenthaug