How Analytics Team of Obama used GWO (Google Website Optimizer) to achieve results in the presidential election. By Dan Siroker (CarrotSticks)

1. How We Used Data to Win
the Presidential Election
Dan Siroker
dan@siroker.com

4. Barack Obama
David Plouffe
Correspondence Field Policy Operations
...
Communications New Media Paid Media Finance
Marketing Email Blog Analytics Design Video Organizing

6. Results

7. Popular Vote Electoral Vote
Other (1%)
1,865,617
McCain
173
McCain (46%)
Obama (53%)
59,934,814
69,456,897
Obama
365
Source: Federal Election Commission

8. McCain Obama
3 100 150
2.4 80 120
1.8 60 90
Millions
1.2 40 60
0.6 20 30
0 0 0
Facebook Friends YouTube Video Views Unique Website Visitors
Source: Facebook,YouTube, and Google Trends

9. Unique Website Visitors
Source: Google Trends

10. Money Raised
PRIMARY GENERAL
OBAMA
JANUARY JANUARY JANUARY
‘07 ‘08 CLINTON
McCAIN
‘09
A
EL
N
N
EC
O
TI
U
N
O
C
N
EM
D
AY
EN
T
Source: Stephen Geer

11. Money Raised
McCain
$201 million
Obama
$656 million
Note: Does not include federal funds
Source: Federal Election Commission

12. Money Raised
Obama (Offline)
McCain $156 million
$201 million
Obama (Online)
$500 million
Note: Does not include federal funds
Source: Washington Post and Federal Election Commission

13. Lessons Learned

14. Lesson #1:
Define success.

15. Chuck Kennedy-Pool/Getty Images

16. Lesson #1:
Define success.

17. Lesson #1:
Define success .

18. Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

19. Website Email signup Raise money

20. cost per sign up $ per
click rate recipient
Website Email signup Raise money

21. cost per sign up $ per
click rate recipient
Website Email signup Raise money

22. Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

23. Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

24. Media
Button

25. Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button: Media:
1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image
2. Learn More 2. Family Image
3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image
4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video

26. Button: “Sign Up”

27. Button: “Learn More”

28. Button: “Join Us Now”

29. Button: “Sign Up Now”

30. Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button: Media:
1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image
2. Learn More 2. Family Image
3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image
4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video

31. Media: “Get Involved”

32. Media: “Family”

33. Media: “Change”

34. Media: “Barack’s Video”

35. Media: “Springfield Video”

36. Media: “Sam’s Video”

37. Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button: Media:
1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image
2. Learn More 2. Family Image
3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image
4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video

38. Splash page experiment results

39. Splash page experiment results

40. Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

41. Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

42. Donation button experiment results
Never Signed Up, Previously
Variations Signed Up Never Donated Donated
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
+2.3% +27.8% +16.3%
-27.8% N/A N/A
+15.2% -24.6% +11.9%
+8.5% +2.9% +18.4%

43. Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

44. Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

45. TextMate
OpenReports
DbVisualizer

46. Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

47. Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

48. Courtesy: Bradley Portnoy Taken: August 27th, 2008 9:42PM

50. Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

51. Lessons Learned
1. Define quantifiable success metrics.
2. Question assumptions.
3. Divide and conquer.
4. Don’t re-invent the wheel.
5. Take advantage of circumstances.

54. Case Study

55. Case Study
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

56. Website Playing user Paying user

62. Website Playing user Paying user

63. cost per cost per revenue per
click playing user playing user
Website Playing user Paying user

64. cost per cost per revenue per
click playing user playing user
Website Playing user Paying user
9/16: $0.33 $1.15 $0.11 $19 pay-to-play
9/22: $0.17 $0.41 $0.10 $4 pay-to-play
freemium
9/28: $0.17 $0.43 $0.19
subscription

65. Case Study
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.

66. Case Study
Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

70. Case Study
Lesson #2:
Question assumptions.

71. Case Study
Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

76. Case Study
Lesson #3:
Divide and conquer.

77. Case Study
Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

83. Case Study
Lesson #4:
Don’t re-invent the wheel.

84. Case Study
Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

86. Case Study
Lesson #5:
Take advantage of circumstances.

87. Lessons Learned
1. Define quantifiable success metrics.
2. Question assumptions.
3. Divide and conquer.
4. Don’t re-invent the wheel.
5. Take advantage of circumstances.

88. Dan Siroker
dan@siroker.com

89. The Future
1. Huge data challenges.
2. More effective user segmentation.
3. Democratization of tools & strategies.