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Emotions Trump Gadgets
Levi Shapiro, India Gadget Expo, June 19, 2014
The Future of Digital?
Apple Thinks So
First…let’s Talk About the Glass Ceiling
Multi-modal Competition
Ecosystems Compete on Cross-Screen Experience
Global annual unit sales (m)
1,000
750
500
250
0
PCs
1,250
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013e1995
Smartphones and tablets
0
Apps are eating the world
Source Flurry
Aug ‘12Mar ’11 Jan ‘12
80%
Of time on mobile is spent
in apps
140
120
60
40
20
0
100
80
160
Apps
Mobile web
Total min spent on mobile apps vs mobile
web (billions of minutes per month, US)
Minutesspentpermonth
(billions)
Messaging is a Mobile Ecosystem
14times
average number of
times a user checks
Facebook on their
mobile daily
Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, US March 2013
Facebook revenue by source
$2.5b
Q4
$3.0b
$1.5b
0
$1.0b
$0.5b
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mobile AdvertisingPayments Advertising
$2.0b
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013
$2.6b
Engagement
Enables
eCommerce
WeChat Ecosystem Value Capture
Hardware as a Tool to Sell Digital Content
Glide’s Technical Edge
Personal Computers
(Desktop And Notebook)
Smartphones
Tablets
Smart TVs
Wearables
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
#OfDevices(InMillions)
Global Internet Device Installed Base Forecast
Its Not Just Mobile (eMarketer, 2013)
The Magpie effect
Offline Economy is Becoming “Appified”
• Massively contextual- Transactions are
Incremental
• Your 2nd brain knows better than you do
• Wallet accessed through your mobile and
gatekeepers
Neural Measurement
Source: Professor Nathan Intrator , TAU
Hey Cookie…You Talkin’ To Me?
Welcome
Levi
Web
Mobile
Context
NEXT
GEN
Hours spent watching video monthly
5
12
9
33
8
Source:Mashable,July2012,LinearTVNielsen11/12
NON-LINEAR
VIDEO VIEWING
NOW EXCEEDS
LINEAR TV
BRIDGING
THE GAP
What Millenials Want…In Their Employer
1.Training
2. Management style
3. Work flexibility (time is currency)
4. Staff activities
5. Non financial rewards (Activism)
6. Good salary
#1 priority: “sense of meaning”
(Career Advisory Board, Harris Interactive study, 2012)
“In 2009, there were 2.5 billion connected devices. In 2020, there will
be 50 billion, most of which will be products.” (Gartner, 2013)
Millenials seek gadgets & experiences reflecting
their values: Inclusive, Personal,Relationship-based
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTwJI0f8c1s
Israeli Brand: Magisto
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_7yoEUrVhw
Israeli Brand: Waze
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wh6BoTBx2w
Israeli Brand: JINNI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlvjzQJGDnY
Nivea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYy1GmJgFXA
Nivea (2)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMrZmSPpIRw
Motorola
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIpMtWeXCaE
Heineken
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyRgQJzILus
Vittel Water
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjvSqDPrjGk
This is your Moonshot
Can Your Gadget Encapsulate Noble
Brand Values and Yet be Freemium?
Freemium Products
• ZERO marginal cost of distribution
• Low inherent conversion rate
• Large scale / large total addressable market
• Continuous monetization curve
• Minority of highly engaged users
Characteristics of Freemium Products
• No switching cost
• LTV difficult to calculate
• Much larger potential audience (everyone can afford free)
• Network effects easier to achieve
• Advertising not as abrasive
• Multiple points of monetization
Lifetime Customer Value (LTV)
• Present value of future cash flows from user
• What individual user can be expected to pay
• Can be aggregated over various dimensions (demographic
characteristics / early user behavior)
• Marketing metric
Misunderstanding LTV
Lifetime Customer Value is NOT Linear or Immediate
*usually. An LTV evolution curve could theoretically be linear.
Misunderstanding LTV
Lifetime Customer Value is NOT Linear or Immediate
*usually. An LTV evolution curve could theoretically be linear.
Misunderstanding LTV
Lifetime Customer Value is NOT Linear or Immediate
*usually. An LTV evolution curve could theoretically be linear.
v
QUESTIONS?
•••
India Gadget Expo: Emotion Trumps Gadgets

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