Deck from our February 2014 workshop in Tokyo

1. Learn-Measure-Build
Craft Useful Experiments By
Running Backwards
Janice Fraser
February 2014

2. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012

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TWEET!
#LeanStartup
@clevergirl
@luxrco

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• Learn the difference between an experiment and a solution test.
• Discover the seven steps to crafting an experiment with a clear
result.
• Practice identifying assumptions and defining testable
hypotheses.
• Understand the anatomy of an experiment.
• Design an experiment to test a real-life hypothesis.
• "Get out of the classroom" to run a real-world experiment on
your fellow conference-goers.
• Define a result and make a go-forward decision.
• Refine the experiment based on cost, time, and manpower.
• Identify the four characteristics of successful experiments.

5. © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co
June & Pete’s
Wedding Cake

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http://saptstrength.com/
Pete June

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April
http://saptstrength.com/
May
June
July
August

8. © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co
sedonaweddingcakes.com

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freebestpictures.blogspot.com

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thekitchn.com

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Zoe Clark, The Cake Parlour

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sedonaweddingcakes.com
Zoe Clark, The Cake Parlour

13. © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co
LEAN
Startup

14. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
LEAN
Startup

15. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
Build
measure
learn!

16. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013

17. © LUXR.CO 2013
Lean Startup is NOT
Cheap Startup
Fast Startup
Shortcut Startup

18. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
An approach for building companies that are
creating new products and services in
situations of extreme uncertainty.
The approach advocates creating small
products that test the entrepreneurʼs
assumptions, and using customer feedback to
evolve the product, thereby reducing waste.
Lean Startup is...

19. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
1. List your assumptions.
2. Understand your customers.
3. Experiment efficiently.
4. Adjust direction based on evidence.

20. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
1. List your assumptions.
2. Understand your customers.
3. Experiment efficiently.
4. Adjust direction based on evidence.

21. © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
Go backward to go forward.
Learn
Measure
Build

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Plot the difference
THINK
release
MAKE
release
MAKE
release
MAKE
RISK=UNVALIDATEDEFFORT
TIME

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Lots of little wigglesRISK=UNVALIDATEDEFFORT
TIME

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RISK=UNVALIDATEDEFFORT
TIME
Each wiggle is a learning cycle.
MAKE
releaseBUILD
LEARN
BUILD
MEASURE

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There’s a pattern to
startup work:
ideation
decision
making
ideation etc.

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In foolproof
experiments, the
results should be self-
evident.

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1. Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
2. Understand the possible answers.
3. Brainstorm “what you could do to prove it”.
4. Choose the most broadly differentiated set of
indicators.
5. Run the experiment.
6. Write down the results...on a sheet of paper.
7. Project the results into your future.
7 steps to foolproof experiments

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The Workshop

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Hypothesis
We believe that modern families would benefit
from having better ways to store their
belongings, and are willing to pay for a service
that will pick up and store boxes, then deliver
them back home on demand.
Today’s Challenge

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Box Me Up
Provides you with plastic storage boxes
Transports your stuff to storage
Pay to get your stuff back
Per-box per year
2800¥ per box per year
outside of the city (less expensive place)
box size: 30 gallon box
service area is in Tokyo
insurance is 20,000 yen per box
temperature and humidity are normally conditioned
no limit for storage perioe
24 hours access to the box
privately storage
payment method: paypal, square, credit card, no cash
delivery will be by car
nothing illegal, perishable, waste will be stored
3 employees in the company
main customer will be families
got 70,000,000 yen for initial investment

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Experiment Framework
For Example:
We believe people like [customer type] have a need for
(or problem doing) [need/action/behavior].
The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is
[experiment].
We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/
measurable outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome].
Every experiment has three parts:
1. Hypothesis that is provable/disprovable
2. The experiment itself; the thing you build
3. An indicator of result

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{Activity}
Identify assumptions
10 assumptions, 1 per sticky

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{Activity}
Divide into 2 piles
Will kill the company
in the next 6 months
if weʼre wrong
Everything
else

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{Activity}
Review & de-dupe

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{Activity}
Stack rank the urgents

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{Activity}
Pick the top one

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{Activity}
Design an experiment
to learn if this is true.
we believe that ________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
__________________________
Briefly describe it.
State how you will know if the
hypothesis is valid or invalid.
This can be quantitative
evidence or qualitative.
How much time/money/effort
will it take?

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{Activity}
Discuss, then pick the
experiment to run.
we believe that ________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
____________ in 2 days.
Decide
we believe that ________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
____________ in 2 weeks.
we believe that ________________
_________________________________
________________________________
________________________________
________________________________
_______________________________
_______________________________
____________ in 2 months.
✔

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Experiments that were designed
assumption experiment
measurable/observable
outcome
busy people need a service
to help them get
menial stuff done
fb ad, neighborhood targeting
presents an offer, landing page.
Phone number or tweet. No out
of pocket cost.
10% ctr on ad, 10% ctr
on landing page. 2 days
busy people need a service
to help them get
menial stuff done
find busy people (in offices). Set up a
“shop”. Sit in their reception and see if
we can get jobs. Prevail upon friend
who runs 300-person company
5% of employees will make
a hire. 1 repeat booking
2 wks
busy people need a service
to help them get
menial stuff done
ad in 10 different offices,
diff types of companies
2 weeks.

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What did you learn?
Top 5 things
{Debrief}

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Design the next
experiment:
2 days, 2 weeks, 2
months
{Next Steps}

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What’s the right size for
the experiment?
{Choose}

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Techniques Checklist
• Brainstorm quietly
• Use Sticky Notes for ideas
• Self-Edit
• Go to the wall for team sharing
• Stack-ranking
• Roman Voting
• Right-Sizing the work

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FISHBOWL