The three most important factors in predicting the next big thing

1. Going Big
The three most important factors in
predicting the next big thing

2. What makes a great company

3. What makes a great company
1. The Market

4. What makes a great company
1. The Market
2. The Team

5. What makes a great company
1. The Market
2. The Team
3. The Execution

6. What makes a great market

7. What makes a great market
1. Under serviced

8. What makes a great market
1. Under serviced
2. Growing

9. What makes a great market
1. Under serviced
2. Growing
3. Highly fragmented

10. What makes a great team

11. What makes a great team
1. Hungry

12. What makes a great team
1. Hungry
2. Passionate

13. What makes a great team
1. Hungry
2. Passionate
3. Domain expertise

14. What makes execution great

15. What makes execution great
1. Bold ideas

16. What makes execution great
1. Bold ideas
2. Culture of innovation

17. What makes execution great
1. Bold ideas
2. Culture of innovation
3. Quick iteration

18. What makes execution great
1. Bold ideas
2. Culture of innovation
3. Quick iteration
4. Listening

19. What makes execution great
1. Bold ideas
2. Culture of innovation
3. Quick iteration
4. Listening
5. Repeat

20. What makes execution great
1. Bold ideas
2. Culture of innovation
3. Quick iteration
4. Listening
5. Repeat

21. What makes a great ecosystem

22. What makes a great ecosystem
1. Capital

23. What makes a great ecosystem
1. Capital
2. Climate

24. What makes a great ecosystem
1. Capital
2. Climate
3. Culture

25. What makes a great ecosystem
1. Capital
2. Climate
3. Culture
4. Universities

26. What makes a great ecosystem
1. Capital
2. Climate
3. Culture
4. Universities
5. Supportive press

27. Search
Execution
Team

28. Search
Execution
Ask
Team

29. Search
Yahoo
Execution
Ask
Team

30. Search
Google
Yahoo
Execution
Ask
Team

31. Social Networks
Execution
Team

32. Social Networks
Execution
friendster
Team

33. Social Networks
LinkedIn
Execution
friendster
Team

34. Social Networks
LinkedIn MySpace
Execution
friendster
Team

35. Social Networks
LinkedIn MySpace
Facebook
Execution
friendster
Team

36. Why startups fail

37. Why startups fail
1. Bad idea

38. Why startups fail
1. Bad idea
2. Bad execution

39. Why startups fail
1. Bad idea
2. Bad execution
3. Outside factors

40. Common bad ideas

41. Common bad ideas
1. Defining your market

42. Common bad ideas
1. Defining your market
2. Lack of listening

43. Common bad ideas
1. Defining your market
2. Lack of listening
3. “Gotcha” culture

44. Common bad ideas
1. Defining your market
2. Lack of listening
3. “Gotcha” culture
4. Preconceived notions

45. Common bad execution

46. Common bad execution
1. Taking on too much

47. Common bad execution
1. Taking on too much
2. Design by committee

48. Common bad execution
1. Taking on too much
2. Design by committee
3. Poor craftsmanship

49. Common bad execution
1. Taking on too much
2. Design by committee
3. Poor craftsmanship
4. Lack of iteration

50. Common outside factors

51. Common outside factors
1. Competitors

52. Common outside factors
1. Competitors
2. Disruptive technologies

53. Common outside factors
1. Competitors
2. Disruptive technologies
3. Improper Capitalization

54. Common outside factors
1. Competitors
2. Disruptive technologies
3. Improper Capitalization
4. Timing

55. Jason’s big secret

56. Jason’s big secret
1. Find a really nice hill

57. Jason’s big secret
1. Find a really nice hill
2. Imagine it 10x bigger

58. Jason’s big secret
1. Find a really nice hill
2. Imagine it 10x bigger
3. Imagine it 10x bigger than that

59. Jason’s big secret
1. Find a really nice hill
2. Imagine it 10x bigger
3. Imagine it 10x bigger than that
4. Assume it will happen

60. Jason’s big secret
1. Find a really nice hill
2. Imagine it 10x bigger
3. Imagine it 10x bigger than that
4. Assume it will happen
5. Build a plan on that outcome

61. Jason’s other big secret

62. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast

63. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast
2. Argue all sides

64. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast
2. Argue all sides
3. Fire good people

65. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast
2. Argue all sides
3. Fire good people
4. Reward obsessive behavior

66. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast
2. Argue all sides
3. Fire good people
4. Reward obsessive behavior
5. Hire slow / Fire fast

67. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast
2. Argue all sides
3. Fire good people
4. Reward obsessive behavior
5. Hire slow / Fire fast
6. Sales solve everything

68. Jason’s other big secret
1. Fail fast
2. Argue all sides
3. Fire good people
4. Reward obsessive behavior
5. Hire slow / Fire fast
6. Sales solve everything
7. Engage your haters

69. Silicon alley reporter
1996-2003

70. Silicon alley reporter
1996-2003
1. Built a 16 page newsletter

71. Silicon alley reporter
1996-2003
1. Built a 16 page newsletter
2. Became a magazine

72. Silicon alley reporter
1996-2003
1. Built a 16 page newsletter
2. Became a magazine
3. Became a 300 page magazine

73. Silicon alley reporter
1996-2003
1. Built a 16 page newsletter
2. Became a magazine
3. Became a 300 page magazine
4. Didn’t assume it would happen

74. Silicon alley reporter
1996-2003
1. Built a 16 page newsletter
2. Became a magazine
3. Became a 300 page magazine
4. Didn’t assume it would happen
5. Didn’t build a plan

75. Weblogs, inc.
2004-2006

76. Weblogs, inc.
2004-2006
1. Built a 100 blog network

77. Weblogs, inc.
2004-2006
1. Built a 100 blog network
2. Assumed it would happen

78. Weblogs, inc.
2004-2006
1. Built a 100 blog network
2. Assumed it would happen
3. Sold after 18 months

79. Weblogs, inc.
2004-2006
1. Built a 100 blog network
2. Assumed it would happen
3. Sold after 18 months
4. Grew 8x post acquisition

80. Mahalo
2007-Present

81. Mahalo
2007-Present
1. Building a human powered
search engine

82. Mahalo
2007-Present
1. Building a human powered
search engine
2. Assuming it will work

83. Mahalo
2007-Present
1. Building a human powered
search engine
2. Assuming it will work
3. Built five-year plan

84. Mahalo
2007-Present
1. Building a human powered
search engine
2. Assuming it will work
3. Built five-year plan
4. Raised capitol to match plan

85. Mahalo
2007-Present
1. Building a human powered
search engine
2. Assuming it will work
3. Built five-year plan
4. Raised capitol to match plan
5. Will let you know in 2012 :)