In March 2009, the Czech Republic's three-party coalition government collapsed after losing a vote of no confidence, mainly because of its handling of the economic situation. However, the economy is predicted to grow by 1.8% in 2010 and 3.1% in 2011. The main political event of note was US President Barack Obama's cancellation of the planned installation in the Czech Republic of an X-band radar, intended by his predecessor to be an integral part of the Europe-based element of the US's missile shield programme. A scaled-down version may include interceptors for later deployment on land in Eastern Europe. The decision, officially based on a reassessment of Iran's capabilities, was regarded by many observers as a measure taken by the US to get Moscow on side for further sanctions against Iran. In late October 2009, the new caretaker prime minister, Jan Fischer, agreed to host elements of the reformulated system. The question of Czech participation in US Ballistic Missile Defence ' which is not well supported by the public ' will be a factor in the forthcoming 2010 election campaign. The growing distance from the US may also result in the formerly Euro-sceptic Czechs and Poles growing closer to the EU. The far right is feared to be on the rise in the Czech Republic, with several members of the neo-Nazi White Justice organisation arrested for preparing terrorist attacks against prominent Jews and police officers. The threat from international terrorism is low, although a risk remains due to the country's continuing involvement in Afghanistan. There is an ongoing indirect threat from weapons and nuclear materials trafficking across Eastern and Central European borders. The pace of army reform has resulted in the creation of highly mobile forces and operations for multinational deployments, with the Czech army ' albeit in small numbers ' continuing to be involved in NATO and UN operations, including specialist nuclear, biological and chemical reconnaissance. The Czechs now believe the privatisation and consolidation of their defence industry has enabled it to align with supply chains of prime contractors in the 'old' and 'new' EU. In 2008, the country's main defence company, Aero Vodochody, declared its highest profit ' US$23.6mn ' since 2002. Much depends on how defence small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain financing in the middle of a credit crunch and on the continuity of medium- and long-term defence planning, upon which companies will base their attempts to bid successfully for new defence contracts. There have been substantial cuts in defence spending, which is not set to meet the NATO requirement of at least 2% of the country's GDP until at least 2014.
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Czech Republic Defence and Security Report 2010
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Czech Republic Defence and Security Report 2010
Published on January 2010
Report Summary
In March 2009, the Czech Republic's three-party coalition government collapsed after losing a vote of no confidence, mainly because
of its handling of the economic situation. However, the economy is predicted to grow by 1.8% in 2010 and 3.1% in 2011. The main
political event of note was US President Barack Obama's cancellation of the planned installation in the Czech Republic of an X-band
radar, intended by his predecessor to be an integral part of the Europe-based element of the US's missile shield programme. A
scaled-down version may include interceptors for later deployment on land in Eastern Europe. The decision, officially based on a
reassessment of Iran's capabilities, was regarded by many observers as a measure taken by the US to get Moscow on side for further
sanctions against Iran. In late October 2009, the new caretaker prime minister, Jan Fischer, agreed to host elements of the
reformulated system. The question of Czech participation in US Ballistic Missile Defence ' which is not well supported by the public '
will be a factor in the forthcoming 2010 election campaign. The growing distance from the US may also result in the formerly
Euro-sceptic Czechs and Poles growing closer to the EU.
The far right is feared to be on the rise in the Czech Republic, with several members of the neo-Nazi White Justice organisation
arrested for preparing terrorist attacks against prominent Jews and police officers. The threat from international terrorism is low,
although a risk remains due to the country's continuing involvement in Afghanistan. There is an ongoing indirect threat from weapons
and nuclear materials trafficking across Eastern and Central European borders.
The pace of army reform has resulted in the creation of highly mobile forces and operations for multinational deployments, with the
Czech army ' albeit in small numbers ' continuing to be involved in NATO and UN operations, including specialist nuclear, biological
and chemical reconnaissance. The Czechs now believe the privatisation and consolidation of their defence industry has enabled it to
align with supply chains of prime contractors in the 'old' and 'new' EU. In 2008, the country's main defence company, Aero
Vodochody, declared its highest profit ' US$23.6mn ' since 2002.
Much depends on how defence small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain financing in the middle of a credit crunch and on the
continuity of medium- and long-term defence planning, upon which companies will base their attempts to bid successfully for new
defence contracts. There have been substantial cuts in defence spending, which is not set to meet the NATO requirement of at least
2% of the country's GDP until at least 2014.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .....5
SWOT Analysis 6
Czech Republic Political SWOT ..... 6
Czech Republic Economic SWOT .. 6
Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT ...... 7
Global Political Outlook .......8
Table: Countries Facing Major Leadership Succession In 2010-2019 .... 10
Table: Countries At Risk Of Major Political Upheaval ... 13
Table: Countries At Risk Of Interstate Conflict Or Heightened Bilateral Tensions ...... 17
Table: Countries Facing Secessionist Or Autonomy Movements, Insurgencies, Or Civil Wars ... 20
Table: Pivotal States ....... 23
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Europe Regional Security Overview 25
Political Overview .......31
Security Risk Analysis .......32
BMI's Security Ratings ... 32
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ... 32
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ........... 33
Czech Republic's Security Risk Ratings .............. 34
City Terrorism Ratings ... 35
Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index .... 36
Security Overview ......38
Internal Threats .... 38
Extremist Groups ............ 38
Organised Crime ............ 39
Corruption ....... 40
Latest Developments ....... 40
External Security Situation .. 42
Missile Defence System ... 42
International Terrorism .. 43
Latest Developments ....... 44
Armed Forces And Government Spending ..48
Armed Forces .. 48
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, '000) ....... 48
Defence Reform .............. 49
International Deployments ........... 51
Table: Czech Republic Foreign Deployments ..... 51
Co-ordination And Joint Operations .... 52
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ..... 53
Market Overview .........55
Imports ..... 56
Exports ..... 57
Industry Trends And Developments ..... 58
Table: Czech Republic Defence, Key Players ..... 58
Procurement Trends And Developments ............. 62
Latest Developments ....... 64
Industry Forecast Scenario 66
Table: Czech Republic's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel) ..... 66
Government Defence Expenditure ....... 66
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry .... 67
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 68
Macroeconomic Forecast ............ 68
Table: Czech Republic ' Economic Activity, 2007-2013 .. 72
Company Profile .........73
Aero Vodochody .............. 73
Country Snapshot: Czech Republic Demographic Data ....75
Section 1: Population ...... 75
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 75
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 76
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 76
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ...... 76
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 76
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Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 77
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......... 77
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............ 77
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......... 78
Methodology ..79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......... 79
Defence Industry ............. 79
City Terrorism Rating ..... 80
Table: Methodology ........ 82
Sources ......... 83
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