Rethinking the way that project planning can evolve in government.

1. EXPONENTIAL PLANNINGA PLAYBOOK TO PLAN FOR THE FUTURE

2. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
INSTITUTE (PMI &
PMP) PLANNING

3. RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
PLANNING (RMP)
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

4. COMPREHENSIVE
PLANNING
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

5. URBAN DESIGN
PLANNING
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

6. THERE ARE MATERIAL WEAKNESSES IN THE
WAY WE PLAN PROJECTS IN CITIES.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

7. CONSTITUENT BEHAVIOR AND A RAPIDLY CHANGING
TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE MAKE IT VITAL FOR
GOVERNMENT (AND BUSINESSES) TO CONSIDER A VARIETY
OF NEW FACTORS AND RISKS IN PLANNING. THIS APPLIES
TO EVERYTHING - A CAPITAL PROJECT OR PIECE OF LAND.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

8. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING IS AN OVERLAY ON TRADITIONAL
PLANNING PROCESSES, DESIGNED TO EVALUATE FUTURE
TRENDS & RISKS THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
GOVERNMENT PROJECTS, AS WELL AS A FUTURE-TARGET
TO PLAN PROJECTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

9. DEFINE PROJECT, LAND USE, OR
OTHER ELEMENT TO START
PLANNING PROCESS.
MAP ADJACENT IMPACT AREAS
EXPONENTIAL ANALYSIS
IDENTIFY MACRO-TRENDS
PROJECT INITIATION
IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
(RISKS, CHANGES IN BEHAVIOR)
TRADITIONAL PLANNING AND/OR
PROJECT MANAGEMENT STEPS.
(I.E. PROJECT EXECUTION /
MANAGEMENT)
STAKEHOLDERS
BUDGET
SCOPE
PROJECTED OUTCOMES
ETC.
CREATE PREDICTION
STATEMENTS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING OVERLAY
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
INTEGRATE INTO OVERALL PLAN

10. EXAMPLE.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

11. SCENARIO 1: THE CITY OF AUSTIN IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERING MODIFICATIONS TO
MOPAC TO EASE TRAFFIC AND INCREASE CAPACITY.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

12. TRADITIONAL METHODS WOULD ONLY INVOLVE ANALYZING TRAFFIC
PATTERNS, ANTICIPATED GROWTH, RIGHT-OF-WAY AVAILABILITY, ETC. TO
CREATE A SERIES OF RECOMMENDATIONS ON CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS.
BUT, LET’S LOOK AT IT THROUGH AN EXPONENTIAL LANDSCAPE
ANALYSIS.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

13. STEP 1: LET’S MAP THE ADJACENT IMPACT AREAS
SELF-DRIVING CARSE-COMMERCE RIDESHARING
INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

14. STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS
E-COMMERCE
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

15. SELF-DRIVING CARS
STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

16. RIDESHARING
STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

17. INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR
STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

18. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
E-COMMERCE =
INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR HAS FORCED
COMPANIES TO ALSO ADAPT THEIR MODELS
AND BECOME DIGITAL COMPANIES. THE
RISE OF SAME DAY SHIPPING HAS
MINIMIZED THE NEED FOR INDIVIDUALS TO
DRIVE TO PHYSICAL PLACES.

19. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
SELF-DRIVING CARS=
SELF-DRIVING CARS ARE NOT
DECADES AWAY, BUT THEY HAVE A
VERY PREDICTABLE PATH. IN FACT
UBER IS ROLLING OUT THEIR FIRST
SELF-DRIVING TAXI TEST IN
SEPTEMBER 2016.

20. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
RIDESHARING=
ONE OF THE MOST DISRUPTIVE IMPACTS ON
TRANSPORTATION IS RIDESHARING THROUGH
COMPANIES LIKE UBER AND LYFT. THEY ARE ALSO
GOING THROUGH THEIR OWN BUSINESS MODEL
DISRUPTION AS MORE PEOPLE (20% GLOBALLY)
ARE OPTING TO SHARE THEIR SHARED RIDE WITH
OTHERS (I.E. CAR-POOL MEETS UBER)

21. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR=
PREFERENCES ARE CHANGING BASED ON COSTS,
COMMUTING, AND THE RISE OF A NEW GENERATION
THAT DRIVES DIFFERENT (AND OWNS LESS).

22. STEP 4: CREATE PREDICTION STATEMENTS (WHERE APPLICABLE)
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
RIDESHARING WILL REDUCE VEHICLES ON THE ROAD 10% BY 2020
Example

23. STEP 5: INTEGRATE INTO OVERALL PLAN
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
Example PROJECTED REDUCTION IN
VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY 10%
PROJECT
START
PROJECT
COMPLETION
20202016
2025
THIS ENABLES YOU HAVE MAINTAIN A BIG PICTURE VIEW OF KEY
VARIABLES THAT MAY IMPACT OVERALL PROJECT PLANNING.

24. THE OUTPUT FROM THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE
INCORPORATED IN THE OVERALL PROJECT PLAN AND
DETAILED IN CONJUNCTION WITH KEY PROJECT MILESTONES.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

25. ADDITIONAL EXERCISES:
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

26. YOUR CITY IS ABOUT TO LAUNCH A BRAND NEW LIBRARY BRANCH.
PERFORM AN EXPONENTIAL PLANNING ANALYSIS TO BETTER
UNDERSTAND THE MACRO-TRENDS THAT APPLY.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

27. WRITE THREE ADJACENT IMPACT AREAS THAT APPLY TO CITY-
OWNED PARKING LOTS.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

28. STUDY THE MARY MEEKER INTERNET TRENDS REPORT AND WRITE
THREE PREDICTION STATEMENTS THAT MIGHT APPLY TO
GOVERNMENT WEBSITES IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS.
EXPONENTIAL PLANNING