This document discusses the waves of globalization according to John Naisbitt's theory of evolution from mega trends. It identifies 7 waves that have propelled changes from the agricultural revolution to the current era of knowledge and collaboration. It also examines the social and economic consequences of globalization, including how increased economic interdependence has made economies more unstable. Finally, it outlines India's potential status by 2035 as the 2nd largest economy in the world and discusses both India's advantages and potential challenges to achieving this status.

1. Dr. L. Mothilal,
Assistant Professor,
Department of Management Studies
Pondicherry Central University, India
Email: mothilal2020@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-mothilal-lakavath-7469b34/
https://www.slideshare.net/mothilalacad
https://www.facebook.com/mothilal2020
Socio-Economic & Political
Consequences of Globalization

2. Globalization – Good or bad?

3. Social Consequences of Globalization

4. Waves of Change
John Naisbitt’s Theory of Evolution from Mega Trends (7 waves of evolution):
1. When people started leaving African Savannah around 40,000 BC.
2. Wave two propelled Agricultural Revolution during 5000 BC-1500 AD.
3. Wave three incubated Industrial Revolution – 1500 – 1850.
4. Wave four all about Transport & Telecom Revolution (1850 – 1940).
5. Wave five was the Computational & Electro-Chemical Revolution – 1940-1975.
6. Wave six set the platform for the Network era – 1975-2002. (Accelerated
Globalization)
7. Wave seven is underway, about Knowledge & Collaboration – 2002 – till date.

5. Economic Consequences of Globalization

6. Globalization & Unstable Economies - Reasons
The social costs are worth the economic gains from foreign products, technologies &
investments.
The difference between the local & global is blurring and we are in the grip of mysterious
world-wide forces
If present economic trend continues, world’s middle class will expand 2 billions
additionally by 2030 – Goldman Sachs.
Economic interdependence is the primary reason for instability of economies in
globalization
Disorderly global economy can reverse all good things.
Financial crisis, international crucial supplies, trade wars and violent business cycles can
damage increasingly interconnected world.

7. Globalization & Unstable Economies - Reasons
1/3rd of the U.S. Public debt is held by Foreigners
Today global economy baffles everyone – corporate executives,
bankers, economists & ordinary people.
Countries are growing economically more interdependent &
politically more nationalistic
Countries are trying to maximize their own advantages rather
than make the system work for everyone

8. India’s 2nd Independence – status by 2035
1. Some of the world’s largest enterprises will be of Indian origin esp. in
basic industries such as steel, copper, aluminum etc.
2. India will have the 2nd (1st in some cases) consumer market in the world.
3. India will partner with strange countries in search of industrial,
agricultural, energy and talent resource around the world. – business
partners will include, Bolivia, Venezuela, Malaysia, Iran, Egypt, African
countries.
It will gain significant political clout by 2035. it will become part of G8
along with China. It will be given permanent seat in UN Security Council &
will be asked to provide leadership level talent to world bodies such as
World Bank, ILO, WHO & IMF.

9. India’s 2nd Independence – status by 2035
INDIA has 4 distinctive advantages:
1. India's demographics
2. Indian Diaspora of more than 20 million NRIs who wish to
contribute to motherland.
3. Diversity (more than EU)
4. Democracy (subject to two party system)

10. India’s 2nd Independence – status by 2035
Potential challenges to India’s supremacy by 2035
Lack of discipline – mindset to disintegrate into a powerful gangs & mafia.
Lack of public infrastructure – If comparable infrastructure to China, Malaysia,
Dubai or Brazil, real GDP growth of 1.5% forever is ensured.
Lack of investment in education & health.
Government still has License Raj mind-set.