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2022 Midterm Election Outlook
- 2. Congress is on the Line Majority in Both Chambers at Stake Senate: Republicans need net gain of 1 seat for majority House: Republicans need net gain of 5 seats for majority
- 3. Three Midterm Scenarios 1) Republicans Sweep Congress 2) GOP House / Senate Toss-up 3) Democratic Expansion
- 4. Fight for the Senate
- 5. Midterm Trend: Senate Races
- 6. Democratic Seats: 14 CO – Bennet CT – Blumenthal IL – Duckworth VT – Open (Leahy) WA - Murray CA – Padilla HI – Schatz NY – Schumer MD – Van Hollen OR – Wyden 2022 Senate Races Republican Seats: 21 L E A N D NH - Hassan S O L I D D L I K E LY D L E A N D T O S S U P L E A N R L I K E LY R S O L I D R T I LT R T I LT D NV – Cortez Masto AZ - Kelly GA - Warnock PA – Open (Toomey) MO – Open (Blunt) AR – Boozman ID – Crapo IA – Grassley ND – Hoeven LA – Kennedy OK – Lankford OK – Open (Inhofe) UT – Lee KS – Moran AK- Murkowski KY - Paul OH – Open (Portman) SC – Scott AL – Open (Shelby) SD – Thune IN - Young NC – Open (Burr) WI – Johnson FL - Rubio
- 7. Fight for the House
- 8. Midterm Trend: House Races
- 9. Democrats 2022 House Races REDISTRICTING Republicans L I K E LY D L E A N D T O S S U P L E A N R L I K E LY R T I LT R T I LT D AZ 4 – Stanton CA 13 – (Harder) CA 47 – Porter CA 49 – Levin CO 7 – (Perlmutter) CT 5 - Hayes IL 6- Newman/Casten NM 3 – Leger Fernandez NV 1 – Titus NV 4 – Horsford NY 4 – (Rice) NY 18 – Maloney NY 19 – Delgado NY 22 – (Katko) OR 4 – DeFazio OR 5 – Schrader OR 6 – NEW TX 28 -- Cuellar CA 22 – Valadao CA 27 – Garcia CA 45 -- Steel CO 8 – NEW IA 3 – Axne KS 3 - Davids MI 3 -- Meijer ME 2 – Golden NJ 7 – Malinowski NM 2 – Herrell NY 11 - Malliotakis VA 2 – Luria WA 8 - Schrier AZ 1 – Schweikert AZ 2 – O’Halleran MD 1 - Harris NE 2 – Bacon CA 3 – (McClintock) CA 40 – Kim CA 41 -- Calvert CO 3 – Boebert GA 6 – (McBath) IA 1 – Miller-Meeks IA 2 – Hinson MT 1 – NEW TN 5 – (Cooper) IL13 – (R. Davis) IL14 - Underwood NV 3 – Lee NY 1 – (Zeldin) AZ 6 – (Kirkpatrick) MI 10 – (Levin) TX 15 – (V. Gonzalez) IL17 – (Bustos) MI 7 – Slotkin MI 8 – Kildee MN 2 - Craig VA 7 – Spanberger
- 11. Reapportionment Six States Gaining Districts Texas +2 (from 36 to 38) Florida +1 (from 27 to 28) Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8) Montana +1 (from 1 to 2) North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14) Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6) Seven States Losing a District California -1 (from 53 to 52) Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17) Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13) New York -1 (from 27 to 26) Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15) Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17) West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)
- 12. Fight for the Governors
- 13. Democratic Seats: 16 CA - Newsom CO – Polis CT – Lamont HI – Open (Ige) IL – Pritzker MN – Walz NY – Hochul RI – McKee 2022 Governors Races Republican Seats: 20 L E A N D FL – DeSantis NH – Sununu AL – Ivey AK – Dunleavy AR – Open (Hutchinson) ID – Little IA – Reynolds NE – Open (Ricketts) OH – DeWine OK – Stitt SC – McMaster SD – Noem TN – Lee TX – Abbott VT – Scott WY - Gordon NM – Lujan Grisham OR – Open (Brown) AZ – (Ducey) KS – Kelly WI - Evers GA – Kemp S O L I D D L I K E LY D L E A N D T O S S U P L E A N R L I K E LY R S O L I D R T I LT R T I LT D MA – Open (Baker) MD – Open (Hogan) ME – Mills MI – Whitmer NV – Sisolak PA – Open (Wolf)
- 14. For more information contact: nathan@insideelections.com InsideElections.com| @InsideElections